Maelstrom loot is not random.

WarpigFunk

Yes I know what random means ... I know what RNG is, and I know that you can flip a coin 100 times and get tails 100 times and that's still consistent with a random result.

However - it seems everyone I talk to has an item or a small group of items that they tend to get a LOT of from the Maelstrom chest. For me it's bows specifically, and stam drops generally.

How many bows? Well, enough that I have 5 or 6 sharpened ones and 2 precise ones sitting on various characters and bank spots- and those are just the ones I've kept.
Well how many times have I run Maelstrom? Not that many ... I only cleared it for the first time in February of this year. Enough clears to have an adequate sample size, certainly not enough to have accumulated 6 sharpened bows.
On Thursday I ran Maelstrom 5 times... bow, dagger/axe, bow, resto, bow. I **** you not.

I have 4 sharpened daggers and one precise one. I have 4 sharpened Mauls and 2 sharp GSs ...

Staffs? I have 1 precise lightning staff and 1 sharpened ice staff. All other staffs (the few of them) I've sold or deconned.
I have only seen one other lightning staff drop, crap trait, and I have seen no more than 3 total inferno staffs drop, all crap traits. I've seen more powered bows alone than all staff types combined.

I have spoken to people who get nothing BUT destro staffs - and collected a sharpened version in all variants by their 20th clear or so. I have spoken to people who seem to get an inordiante amount of 2 handers and little else. One guy I spoke to said he could build a house with all the shields he's gotten. (i've seen one shield ever)

This seems ... seeems .... to be a thing. Where each character you use in maelstrom has some hidden modifier attached to it that gives it a higher likelihood of pulling specific items.

I have only cleared maelstrom with 2 of my characters - and only farm it with one ... I'm thinking about just doing it with my templar to see what his loot table looks like ... My magsorc's table seems broken - at least in the context of wanting a damn usable staff already.


I'd wager that if you took ALL the maelstrom drops and leaderboard rewards on a given server the list would look somewhat like a random loot table ... however if you broke it down by character, I'd pretty much guarantee none of the individual loot tables would look random in and of themselves.

/endrant

Beardimus

I'm sure it's just RNG, however My MagSorc has cleared 30-35 times and has EVERY Stamina Weopon in Sharp and all other BIS traits - not one Destro.

My mates Stam toon dropped a Sharp Infero like 3rd run.

It 'feels' like they give you the weopon you don't want. Maybe to tempt you to an Alt thus more longevity perhaps

ANYhoo, that's feel. I'm sure its just RNG. I dont care about weopons really just a byproduct of getting better at the Arena.

VonSwaego

I've cleared it a 100 times or more with my sorce. Have every stamina weapon in sharpened. Two ice staves in bad traits, one lightning staff in decisive. No fire destros. Not one. RNG or not, I feel like I need to grind it with a Stam character to get weapons for a magic guy.

Kerioko

last 15 runs on magSorc: drops in order

- 1 precise fire
- 4 defending 2H (2 mauls, 1 sword, 1 axe)
- 1 charged 2H axe
- 1 defending sword with infused shield
- 1 sharpened dagger/defending axe
- 1 nirn bow
- 2 nirn restos
- 1 charged 2H axe
- 2 defending resto
- 1 charged lightning

WarpigFunk

Could it possibly be looking at your highest resource and then generating a loot table specifically benefiting other resource pools? Like if your player has more mag than anything, you get bows, 1 handers, and 2 handers? If your character has more stam, you get staffs?

NinthPrince64

WarpigFunk wrote: »

Could it possibly be looking at your highest resource and then generating a loot table specifically benefiting other resource pools? Like if your player has more mag than anything, you get bows, 1 handers, and 2 handers? If your character has more stam, you get staffs?

More generally you are asking if the loot drops are based on conditional probabilities rather than unconditional probabilities (as we are lead to believe). If there was a business reason for doing so, then i could see that being the case. I guess the logic given the above discussion would have to be along the lines that ZOS has market data indicating that players who play a single character or resource type quit the game sooner than those that play a diversity of character types. Dropping weapons that aren't useful to your current characters might "nudge" you into trying something new and lead you to stay with the game longer.

Seems possible, but I don't know how likely. BTW, my sample of drops is consistent with unconditional probabilities - perhaps eerily so

grim_tactics

I ran it with a MagSorc every time and before I got my first Flame Staff drop I already had a defending resto, 2 sharpened dagger, two good bow drops, and a two hander my friend was mad about because he's yet to get 1.

On about my 50th try I finally got the first Flame drop and luckily it was sharpened.

I now avoid that grind pit and actually enjoy the game again.

Danksta

My vMA drops seem to be evenly distributed between the different weapon types.

smacx250

FYI - This thread discusses what it "should" be based on (what I think are) the latest reported updates to the distribution - but it's possible there have been further updates.

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/311826/new-vma-weapon-distribution

Reorx_Holybeard wrote: »

Just some details on the current drop rate and what we can guess will be the new one based on the above patch notes. The chances in the following table are "Old / New" values:

• Restoration Staff = 16.7% / 8.3%
• Inferno Staff = 5.6% / 8.3%
• Ice Staff = 5.6% / 8.3%
• Shock Staff = 5.6% / 8.3%
• Sword + Shield = 8.3% / 8.3%
• Mace + Shield = 8.3% / 8.3%
• Bow = 16.7% / 8.3%
• Dagger = 8.3% / 16.7%
• Axe = 8.3% / 16.7%
• 2H Sword = 5.6% / 8.3%
• 2H Mace = 5.6% / 8.3%
• 2H Axe = 5.6% / 8.3%

BigBadVolk

atm I did it with two of my magblades and my results are
1 sharp inerno
1 nirnhoned lightning
2 defending lighning staff
2 infused inferno
2 powered resto
1 defending resto
countless one handed and shield in everytrait (10-20)
1 sharp 2h sword
3 sharp 2h maul and axe
5 precise dagger
4 precise axe
1 sharp bow
1 powered,defending bow
so far I havent seen charged, decisive and still farming for precise inferno

stileanima

smacx250 wrote: »

FYI - This thread discusses what it "should" be based on (what I think are) the latest reported updates to the distribution - but it's possible there have been further updates.

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/311826/new-vma-weapon-distribution

Reorx_Holybeard wrote: »

Just some details on the current drop rate and what we can guess will be the new one based on the above patch notes. The chances in the following table are "Old / New" values:

• Restoration Staff = 16.7% / 8.3%
• Inferno Staff = 5.6% / 8.3%
• Ice Staff = 5.6% / 8.3%
• Shock Staff = 5.6% / 8.3%
• Sword + Shield = 8.3% / 8.3%
• Mace + Shield = 8.3% / 8.3%
• Bow = 16.7% / 8.3%
• Dagger = 8.3% / 16.7%
• Axe = 8.3% / 16.7%
• 2H Sword = 5.6% / 8.3%
• 2H Mace = 5.6% / 8.3%
• 2H Axe = 5.6% / 8.3%

Yeah, I would say that's pretty accurate...

WarpigFunk

UPDATE:


Since making this topic I've run Maelstrom 6 times.
Here's the drops:

Inferno Staff - Decisive
Lightning Staff - Decisive
Inferno Staff - Decisive
Restoration Staff - Sharpened
Inferno Staff - Infused
----> Inferno Staff - Sharpened <

---

LIKE WTF???

*Makes a topic about never getting staffs.

* Has unending stream of staff drops for the next 6 runs culminating in sharp inferno.

* feels simultaneously elated and stupid.

Chiefpoppasquat

In my few completes i have 3 sharp ice staves 4 2hs all defending precise bow defending lighting charged axe powered dagger and that's alternating Stam dk and mag sorc. Mag sorc has gotten me all 2hs

bebynnag

the game gives you what it thinks you have no use for, which is why in an attempt to get myself a sharpened inferno & lightning i am running it on stam characters

Nightzerk

Kerioko wrote: »

last 15 runs on magSorc: drops in order

- 1 precise fire
- 4 defending 2H (2 mauls, 1 sword, 1 axe)
- 1 charged 2H axe
- 1 defending sword with infused shield
- 1 sharpened dagger/defending axe
- 1 nirn bow
- 2 nirn restos
- 1 charged 2H axe
- 2 defending resto
- 1 charged lightning

You just summed up my entire maelstrom expirience. Luckily I got my sharpened lightning staff after sooo many runs.

jakeedmundson

I still don't believe every weapon has the same chance to drop... but i HAVE had better luck since they changed things up in the last update...

I'm about 100 runs deep now... not sure exactly because i participated in the double drop event... and i have a mule just to hold my vma drop

he currently holds 90 weapons.
I've used 4 or 5 for trait research... because, why not?
I've been hitting the leaderboard with the dk each week... and starting this week, with the templar. (all using heavy attack builds and getting 500k + scores)
and each of my 5 characters has 5 + vma weapons in their inventory.

Total items could be around 125?

Since the update...
1 or 2 sword and board drops (thank god)
5-10 more restos (retract previous "thank you")
3 sharpened lightning staves (ok... thank you again)
1 sharpened inferno staff as this weeks leader board reward (....getting suspicious)
and a slew of bad traited 2 handers and dual wield drops..

ilmyy

I get 4 one handed and shied for my weekly reward for 4 weeks in a month, lmao
I get my first sharpen bow after 70 runs, first sharpen flame staff after 80 runs and first sharpen lightning staff after 100+runs.
I hate vma.

Lukums1

Have 100 + sharpen weapons... pretty average across the board...

However 2 flame destro and 2 lightning destro sharpen.

20 + daggers
20 + bows
20 + resto
20 + 2hs (combination)

The staffs. I do agree with after running over 1000 + times... the RNG is bad

Did it for a mate via shareplay the other day.. first drop flame sharpen destro... wow.

MCBIZZLE300

To be noted, I got the sharpened inferno staff last night 100 to 120 runs id say.

Qbiken

Unless you can provide the mathematical formula on how rng works in ESO, it´s random