DaveMoeDee wrote: »I think the point was that it is regression to the mean. You got lucky initially, but over a larger sample size you are seeing the rates are lower than you thought.KanedaSyndrome wrote: »disintegr8 wrote: »I don't think it is anything more than RNG. I am on PS4, so may not have any latest changes that anyone on PC has, but I do writs on 8 characters every day and have never had a day without at least 1 MW. I usually get 2 or 3 a day, very rarely I get 4.
I have gone 9 days on one character between MW's and have been on my last writ character before getting one (so 7 characters in a row without a MW). If I was only doing writs on 1 or 2 characters I would possibly have given up a long time ago but I passed 100 MW's at the end of 5 weeks, so for now I'll keep going.
Edit: I might suggest that you were getting MW's 'above' the designed odds and it has just been brought back in line with how it should be working. At your rates I should have been getting 4 or more every day for 8 characters instead of 2 or 3.
Well if your suspicion is correct, then we don't have true RNG, as you're implying that there's a balancing RNG behind that will throttle down people's luck if they get "too many" writs. And that is exactly what this thing feels like.
If you're getting 2-3 from 8 characters, I should be getting about 0.5-0.75 per day, which I'm not. So something is definitely off here.
So it wasn't "brought back in line" in an active sense. It is just regression to the mean.
lordrichter wrote: »KanedaSyndrome wrote: »So I stopped doing writs, since there's something odd going on with the RNG of the rewards. 3 weeks ago I stopped getting master writs completely, where I have been turning writs in for 2 charactes once per day. Before that cut off day approximately 3 weeks ago I got writs consistently, I would probably get about 1 per day approximately (out of 10 turnins).
Going from 1 master writ per day to 0 in 3 weeks, that can't be explained by any bell curve or any statistic, especially not when I hear other people experiencing the same. So something is going on behind the scenes.
Who else has experienced going from a steady flow of master writs to zero?
Disclaimer: Haven't unlearnt any crafting related skills. Only been gaining more motifs and recipes etc.
This seems to be a feature of the ZOS RNG, and I have noticed it in a lot of places. It seems particularly noticeable in these events that happen.
The first few hours and days of an event will have a very nice drop rate for the special rewards. You will frequently get the special recipes and runeboxes. After awhile, they don't quite seem drop with the same frequency.
I don't know what is going on, and have no numbers to prove any of this. It is like ZOS goes in there and tweaks the drop rates dynamically when they see that too many are dropping, or they have some sort of dynamic drop rate that is based on how many have been dispensed, or how many are already out in the game.
In any case, I have learned to do events early, hard, and fast. Those characters will get the achievements in a matter of a few hours. Characters that do not start until the middle of the event might get the achievements, or might run out of time.
For example, my recipe to banner ratio early in the Festival was pretty balanced. Now, all I am getting is banners. One might blame RNG, but this seems to be a pattern, and RNG results should not be running patterns.
KanedaSyndrome wrote: »DaveMoeDee wrote: »I think the point was that it is regression to the mean. You got lucky initially, but over a larger sample size you are seeing the rates are lower than you thought.KanedaSyndrome wrote: »disintegr8 wrote: »I don't think it is anything more than RNG. I am on PS4, so may not have any latest changes that anyone on PC has, but I do writs on 8 characters every day and have never had a day without at least 1 MW. I usually get 2 or 3 a day, very rarely I get 4.
I have gone 9 days on one character between MW's and have been on my last writ character before getting one (so 7 characters in a row without a MW). If I was only doing writs on 1 or 2 characters I would possibly have given up a long time ago but I passed 100 MW's at the end of 5 weeks, so for now I'll keep going.
Edit: I might suggest that you were getting MW's 'above' the designed odds and it has just been brought back in line with how it should be working. At your rates I should have been getting 4 or more every day for 8 characters instead of 2 or 3.
Well if your suspicion is correct, then we don't have true RNG, as you're implying that there's a balancing RNG behind that will throttle down people's luck if they get "too many" writs. And that is exactly what this thing feels like.
If you're getting 2-3 from 8 characters, I should be getting about 0.5-0.75 per day, which I'm not. So something is definitely off here.
So it wasn't "brought back in line" in an active sense. It is just regression to the mean.
Normally I'd agree with you, but not in this case.
I went from getting 1 a day on 2 crafters, even on days I got 2-4 from 10 writ turnins, had actually a day where I got 4 master writs out of 6 turnins on one crafter. Going from that to not receiving a single master writ in 4 weeks where I turn in 10-12 a day, that's really really unlikely, especially considering that others are experiencing the exact same results.
So this is not about "perception" of RNG and law of large numbers or anything like that.
DaveMoeDee wrote: »KanedaSyndrome wrote: »DaveMoeDee wrote: »I think the point was that it is regression to the mean. You got lucky initially, but over a larger sample size you are seeing the rates are lower than you thought.KanedaSyndrome wrote: »disintegr8 wrote: »I don't think it is anything more than RNG. I am on PS4, so may not have any latest changes that anyone on PC has, but I do writs on 8 characters every day and have never had a day without at least 1 MW. I usually get 2 or 3 a day, very rarely I get 4.
I have gone 9 days on one character between MW's and have been on my last writ character before getting one (so 7 characters in a row without a MW). If I was only doing writs on 1 or 2 characters I would possibly have given up a long time ago but I passed 100 MW's at the end of 5 weeks, so for now I'll keep going.
Edit: I might suggest that you were getting MW's 'above' the designed odds and it has just been brought back in line with how it should be working. At your rates I should have been getting 4 or more every day for 8 characters instead of 2 or 3.
Well if your suspicion is correct, then we don't have true RNG, as you're implying that there's a balancing RNG behind that will throttle down people's luck if they get "too many" writs. And that is exactly what this thing feels like.
If you're getting 2-3 from 8 characters, I should be getting about 0.5-0.75 per day, which I'm not. So something is definitely off here.
So it wasn't "brought back in line" in an active sense. It is just regression to the mean.
Normally I'd agree with you, but not in this case.
I went from getting 1 a day on 2 crafters, even on days I got 2-4 from 10 writ turnins, had actually a day where I got 4 master writs out of 6 turnins on one crafter. Going from that to not receiving a single master writ in 4 weeks where I turn in 10-12 a day, that's really really unlikely, especially considering that others are experiencing the exact same results.
So this is not about "perception" of RNG and law of large numbers or anything like that.
It is possible they changed things. But there are other people who from day one got no MW consistently. There experience holds just as much weight as yours, but you are trying to generalize from your own anecdotes.
There is no reason why we should expect consistent results for any one player, especially on low probability occurrences. You
need large numbers to evaluate consistency of rates.
One player's anecdote is meaningless when discussing drop rates over time.
KanedaSyndrome wrote: »DaveMoeDee wrote: »KanedaSyndrome wrote: »DaveMoeDee wrote: »I think the point was that it is regression to the mean. You got lucky initially, but over a larger sample size you are seeing the rates are lower than you thought.KanedaSyndrome wrote: »disintegr8 wrote: »I don't think it is anything more than RNG. I am on PS4, so may not have any latest changes that anyone on PC has, but I do writs on 8 characters every day and have never had a day without at least 1 MW. I usually get 2 or 3 a day, very rarely I get 4.
I have gone 9 days on one character between MW's and have been on my last writ character before getting one (so 7 characters in a row without a MW). If I was only doing writs on 1 or 2 characters I would possibly have given up a long time ago but I passed 100 MW's at the end of 5 weeks, so for now I'll keep going.
Edit: I might suggest that you were getting MW's 'above' the designed odds and it has just been brought back in line with how it should be working. At your rates I should have been getting 4 or more every day for 8 characters instead of 2 or 3.
Well if your suspicion is correct, then we don't have true RNG, as you're implying that there's a balancing RNG behind that will throttle down people's luck if they get "too many" writs. And that is exactly what this thing feels like.
If you're getting 2-3 from 8 characters, I should be getting about 0.5-0.75 per day, which I'm not. So something is definitely off here.
So it wasn't "brought back in line" in an active sense. It is just regression to the mean.
Normally I'd agree with you, but not in this case.
I went from getting 1 a day on 2 crafters, even on days I got 2-4 from 10 writ turnins, had actually a day where I got 4 master writs out of 6 turnins on one crafter. Going from that to not receiving a single master writ in 4 weeks where I turn in 10-12 a day, that's really really unlikely, especially considering that others are experiencing the exact same results.
So this is not about "perception" of RNG and law of large numbers or anything like that.
It is possible they changed things. But there are other people who from day one got no MW consistently. There experience holds just as much weight as yours, but you are trying to generalize from your own anecdotes.
There is no reason why we should expect consistent results for any one player, especially on low probability occurrences. You
need large numbers to evaluate consistency of rates.
One player's anecdote is meaningless when discussing drop rates over time.
I see what you're saying. I think what I noticed though is that my main crafter is max in traits and max in all 6 crafts etc, where the people that talk about not having receiving anything from the beginning hasn't be maxed in traits, at least that is what I can see from my small sample pool.
I'm not saying that your explanation of my experience is necessarily wrong, I just find it unlikely.
DaveMoeDee wrote: »lordrichter wrote: »KanedaSyndrome wrote: »So I stopped doing writs, since there's something odd going on with the RNG of the rewards. 3 weeks ago I stopped getting master writs completely, where I have been turning writs in for 2 charactes once per day. Before that cut off day approximately 3 weeks ago I got writs consistently, I would probably get about 1 per day approximately (out of 10 turnins).
Going from 1 master writ per day to 0 in 3 weeks, that can't be explained by any bell curve or any statistic, especially not when I hear other people experiencing the same. So something is going on behind the scenes.
Who else has experienced going from a steady flow of master writs to zero?
Disclaimer: Haven't unlearnt any crafting related skills. Only been gaining more motifs and recipes etc.
This seems to be a feature of the ZOS RNG, and I have noticed it in a lot of places. It seems particularly noticeable in these events that happen.
The first few hours and days of an event will have a very nice drop rate for the special rewards. You will frequently get the special recipes and runeboxes. After awhile, they don't quite seem drop with the same frequency.
I don't know what is going on, and have no numbers to prove any of this. It is like ZOS goes in there and tweaks the drop rates dynamically when they see that too many are dropping, or they have some sort of dynamic drop rate that is based on how many have been dispensed, or how many are already out in the game.
In any case, I have learned to do events early, hard, and fast. Those characters will get the achievements in a matter of a few hours. Characters that do not start until the middle of the event might get the achievements, or might run out of time.
For example, my recipe to banner ratio early in the Festival was pretty balanced. Now, all I am getting is banners. One might blame RNG, but this seems to be a pattern, and RNG results should not be running patterns.
Unlikely they are tweaking rates drastically. Read about more people's experiences. We see silly debates where one person says rates are low because they got nothing and someone replies with an anecdote about how they got great return. With a lot of people playing the game, there will be outliers.
Your personal anecdote about recipe to banner ratio is useless. From day one, I was swimming in banners. The pattern is that people are making generalizations from absurdly small sample sizes and coming to opposite conclusions.
DaveMoeDee wrote: »Unlikely they are tweaking rates drastically. Read about more people's experiences. We see silly debates where one person says rates are low because they got nothing and someone replies with an anecdote about how they got great return. With a lot of people playing the game, there will be outliers.
Your personal anecdote about recipe to banner ratio is useless. From day one, I was swimming in banners. The pattern is that people are making generalizations from absurdly small sample sizes and coming to opposite conclusions.
Rohamad_Ali wrote: »KanedaSyndrome wrote: »Rohamad_Ali wrote: »I quit too . Four months and no master writs in prov or alc . Stopped bothering .
But you still get in from the other professions?
Don't have any other professionals .
Well if i had not gotten any alchey master writs in the four months since the MW system started two months ago... i would likely be doing things differently too... like maybe farming gold and buying writs in the guild stores. I mean if you want writs and cant get any in four months of a two month old release you can still buy 5 voucher alchey writs for under 10k and one can make 20k for 10 vouchers worth a day in no time flat. heck i usually bring in about 45k a day in my normal non-master writs basic non-survey a day. That could easily buy me 20+ vouchers in writs a day if i wanted.
That of course assumes you dont have other things gold-approachable you want more than stuff you can buy with vouchers, of course.
i recall one guy who was complaining that they spent "entire mornings" just harvesting nodes and go only two heartwood. That calls for a change in tactics, not a game change IMO. Can harvest gold to buy dozens of heart wood in an hour with no sweat.
Rohamad_Ali wrote: »Rohamad_Ali wrote: »KanedaSyndrome wrote: »Rohamad_Ali wrote: »I quit too . Four months and no master writs in prov or alc . Stopped bothering .
But you still get in from the other professions?
Don't have any other professionals .
Well if i had not gotten any alchey master writs in the four months since the MW system started two months ago... i would likely be doing things differently too... like maybe farming gold and buying writs in the guild stores. I mean if you want writs and cant get any in four months of a two month old release you can still buy 5 voucher alchey writs for under 10k and one can make 20k for 10 vouchers worth a day in no time flat. heck i usually bring in about 45k a day in my normal non-master writs basic non-survey a day. That could easily buy me 20+ vouchers in writs a day if i wanted.
That of course assumes you dont have other things gold-approachable you want more than stuff you can buy with vouchers, of course.
i recall one guy who was complaining that they spent "entire mornings" just harvesting nodes and go only two heartwood. That calls for a change in tactics, not a game change IMO. Can harvest gold to buy dozens of heart wood in an hour with no sweat.
No , I'll just quit doing them . I have plenty of fun doing other things . Not even worried about it . I have three fully furnished houses the way I like and am finishing the fourth . There is nothing from master writs I absolutely must have . I can swap PVP motifs for crafting stations if I ever want those .
Rohamad_Ali wrote: »Rohamad_Ali wrote: »KanedaSyndrome wrote: »Rohamad_Ali wrote: »I quit too . Four months and no master writs in prov or alc . Stopped bothering .
But you still get in from the other professions?
Don't have any other professionals .
Well if i had not gotten any alchey master writs in the four months since the MW system started two months ago... i would likely be doing things differently too... like maybe farming gold and buying writs in the guild stores. I mean if you want writs and cant get any in four months of a two month old release you can still buy 5 voucher alchey writs for under 10k and one can make 20k for 10 vouchers worth a day in no time flat. heck i usually bring in about 45k a day in my normal non-master writs basic non-survey a day. That could easily buy me 20+ vouchers in writs a day if i wanted.
That of course assumes you dont have other things gold-approachable you want more than stuff you can buy with vouchers, of course.
i recall one guy who was complaining that they spent "entire mornings" just harvesting nodes and go only two heartwood. That calls for a change in tactics, not a game change IMO. Can harvest gold to buy dozens of heart wood in an hour with no sweat.
No , I'll just quit doing them . I have plenty of fun doing other things . Not even worried about it . I have three fully furnished houses the way I like and am finishing the fourth . There is nothing from master writs I absolutely must have . I can swap PVP motifs for crafting stations if I ever want those .
Sure, absolutely, as i say change tactics to whatever works better for you.
I imagine by July you will have six months of morrowind play completed too and be set there.
disintegr8 wrote: »Rohamad_Ali wrote: »Rohamad_Ali wrote: »KanedaSyndrome wrote: »Rohamad_Ali wrote: »I quit too . Four months and no master writs in prov or alc . Stopped bothering .
But you still get in from the other professions?
Don't have any other professionals .
Well if i had not gotten any alchey master writs in the four months since the MW system started two months ago... i would likely be doing things differently too... like maybe farming gold and buying writs in the guild stores. I mean if you want writs and cant get any in four months of a two month old release you can still buy 5 voucher alchey writs for under 10k and one can make 20k for 10 vouchers worth a day in no time flat. heck i usually bring in about 45k a day in my normal non-master writs basic non-survey a day. That could easily buy me 20+ vouchers in writs a day if i wanted.
That of course assumes you dont have other things gold-approachable you want more than stuff you can buy with vouchers, of course.
i recall one guy who was complaining that they spent "entire mornings" just harvesting nodes and go only two heartwood. That calls for a change in tactics, not a game change IMO. Can harvest gold to buy dozens of heart wood in an hour with no sweat.
No , I'll just quit doing them . I have plenty of fun doing other things . Not even worried about it . I have three fully furnished houses the way I like and am finishing the fourth . There is nothing from master writs I absolutely must have . I can swap PVP motifs for crafting stations if I ever want those .
Sure, absolutely, as i say change tactics to whatever works better for you.
I imagine by July you will have six months of morrowind play completed too and be set there.
Ouch.
Rohamad_Ali wrote: »disintegr8 wrote: »Rohamad_Ali wrote: »Rohamad_Ali wrote: »KanedaSyndrome wrote: »Rohamad_Ali wrote: »I quit too . Four months and no master writs in prov or alc . Stopped bothering .
But you still get in from the other professions?
Don't have any other professionals .
Well if i had not gotten any alchey master writs in the four months since the MW system started two months ago... i would likely be doing things differently too... like maybe farming gold and buying writs in the guild stores. I mean if you want writs and cant get any in four months of a two month old release you can still buy 5 voucher alchey writs for under 10k and one can make 20k for 10 vouchers worth a day in no time flat. heck i usually bring in about 45k a day in my normal non-master writs basic non-survey a day. That could easily buy me 20+ vouchers in writs a day if i wanted.
That of course assumes you dont have other things gold-approachable you want more than stuff you can buy with vouchers, of course.
i recall one guy who was complaining that they spent "entire mornings" just harvesting nodes and go only two heartwood. That calls for a change in tactics, not a game change IMO. Can harvest gold to buy dozens of heart wood in an hour with no sweat.
No , I'll just quit doing them . I have plenty of fun doing other things . Not even worried about it . I have three fully furnished houses the way I like and am finishing the fourth . There is nothing from master writs I absolutely must have . I can swap PVP motifs for crafting stations if I ever want those .
Sure, absolutely, as i say change tactics to whatever works better for you.
I imagine by July you will have six months of morrowind play completed too and be set there.
Ouch.
Why di you say ouch ? Was he trying to make a insult ? His post did not bother me in the least . I will come back and play with master writs another time . Maybe when I feel like making a clother or armor smith . Maybe the writ drops are better for those . In the meantime ai was just saying I have lots of other content to keep me busy .
Every since the Master Writs came into the game, I have gotten 116 Vouchers. And, that it because a generous guild mate gave me 107 Vouchers worth. I think I have seen 8 myself. I know the math does not work out, but that is because 2 of the Alchemy ones I could not complete and I was not going to do the one wanting to use two Perfect Roe.
As for my self, I rarely get a writ, and when I do, it is for 2 to 6 Vouchers, got one for 17, but it was for a Motif I did not know and was selling for 60K.
So, not doing equipment crafting writs, as even the Gold Temper rate has dropped into the toilet.
I just stopped doing them because it's too much of a grind. I feel like logging into ESO is work. Back to ganking in Cyrodiil for me!
You must be one of the few to experience 'way more', mine is barely in the lead on MW's received. I am definitely not seeing an increased reward really worthy of the time spent on my main crafter, who was 9 trait last year. Either that or my other crafters have been 'lucky'.My master crafter has gotten way more master writs than my non crafters along with and much higher voucher amounts per writ.
KanedaSyndrome wrote: »Fun thing that happened.
As you know, I hadn't received writs in up to 3-4 weeks, but then I submitted a help ticket ingame stating my predicament, and as expected the reply was something generic along the lines of the RNG gods being fickle. Anyway, since I received that reply from game support I've received 3 master writs over 2 days, which is consistent with my previous drop rates before the drought.
Quite a coincidence if I may say so myself.
Rohamad_Ali wrote: »Update: After quitting writs , I realized I had one quest I did not turn in last night and after turning it in , got a master writ . Gamblers high almost got me to take another quest .
all these talks about personal experience and special event banner drop rate are quite interresting... but back on topic... op and a couple more people, me included, stop receiving MW on their master crafters for more than 2 weeks, i don't want to wear that tinfoil hat, but something is off. I had no problem getting 500 vouchers in the first 2 weeks, but in the last 17 days i received 0. I've even upgraded my motifs collection, and since i bought the full ebony motif with vouchers i can't get a single MW, i dunno, they may have bugged something in the patch that suposedly fixed provisionning
I just do 2 characters, and I have had two that I can remember, both were for Ozorga's recipes, one for 2 writs, one for 5.ASkullParty wrote: »I've never even seen a provisioning writ, but I guess they exist. Anyone have any experience with them?
I_killed_Vivec wrote: »
Some people are spoilt by good RNG favour and can't handle it when they get what mere mortals experience everyday.
RNG isn't hurting you, it was favouring you and now it isn't so much. Maybe one day I'll get what you considered "normal"...