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RNG and stats - a math perspective
malicia
✭✭✭✭
Firstly, I have very rudimentary stats knowledge. If someone with a better understanding than me comes along, please feel free to comment and correct me where I went wrong. I'll appreciate the opportunity to learn.
Something many people miss about RNG is that your chances of getting the same drop twice is supposed to be very much lower than getting different drops.
I'll take vMA as an example, as the drop possibilities are fairly much fixed and well known.
A combination of weapon and trait in vMA has a 1/96 chance of dropping. Thus, P(Sharpened Daggers)=1/96. P(Anything Else) = 1-P(SD) = 95/96.
Variables:
k = number of drops
n = number of runs
Then:
P(k) = (n!/(k!*(n-k)!)) * P(SD)^k * P(AE)^ (n-k)
So, if you do 1 run, your chances of getting one SD drop is: 0.0104 = 1.04%
If you do 2 runs, your chances of getting an SD drop is: 2.07%. That means that there is an 2.07% chance that one or both of the drops will be an SD.
However, if you have two runs, the chances that 1, but not both, of them will be an SD is 2.058%. This time the very small probability that both are SDs is excluded, so the probability is lower than in the previous example.
So, with larger numbers:
In 100 runs, the probability of an SD is 64.9% (thanks to @Draqone for correcting me on my initial mistake!). That includes options of getting two, three or more SDs within those 100 runs.
In 100 runs, the probability of getting exactly 2 SDs is 19.2%
3 SDs -> 6.59 %
4 SDs -> 1.68 %
5 SDs -> 0.34 %
8 SDs ->
What does this mean? If ESO's RNG is purely random, and if you do vMA 100 times, you should end up with the weapon you want in the trait you want. If you don't, your luck is very bad indeed.
How can we get a better idea of whether the RNG is purely random? There are tests that we can use, such as the Chi-Square test, that will give us an indication of whether the RNG is purely random, or whether it is loaded. To do that, though, we'll need the raw data from numerous vMA runs. So, for 100 runs, we'll need to know exactly what the loot for those runs were if we want to use something like Chi-Square.
Okay, so this was a fun stats-recap for me. If someone complains about getting 5 infused restoration staves in 100 runs, and no sharpened daggers, don't be too fast to shout them down. They actually have a point - the probability of getting 5 infused restoration staves in 100 runs is slim for a true random distribution. It should only happen to about 1 in 300 players. 8 Infused restoration staves should happen to about 1 in every 103 000 players.
If you do want to complain about RNG, do it sensibly. Collect the data and post it. If you do 300 runs it means that you're a sucker for pain. Recording your loot in Excel is much simpler than doing vMA. Just coming here complaining without solid data to back your allegations is a bit silly, though.
Edited by malicia on March 16, 2017 12:38PM Something many people miss about RNG is that your chances of getting the same drop twice is supposed to be very much lower than getting different drops.
I'll take vMA as an example, as the drop possibilities are fairly much fixed and well known.
A combination of weapon and trait in vMA has a 1/96 chance of dropping. Thus, P(Sharpened Daggers)=1/96. P(Anything Else) = 1-P(SD) = 95/96.
Variables:
k = number of drops
n = number of runs
Then:
P(k) = (n!/(k!*(n-k)!)) * P(SD)^k * P(AE)^ (n-k)
So, if you do 1 run, your chances of getting one SD drop is: 0.0104 = 1.04%
If you do 2 runs, your chances of getting an SD drop is: 2.07%. That means that there is an 2.07% chance that one or both of the drops will be an SD.
However, if you have two runs, the chances that 1, but not both, of them will be an SD is 2.058%. This time the very small probability that both are SDs is excluded, so the probability is lower than in the previous example.
So, with larger numbers:
In 100 runs, the probability of an SD is 64.9% (thanks to @Draqone for correcting me on my initial mistake!). That includes options of getting two, three or more SDs within those 100 runs.
In 100 runs, the probability of getting exactly 2 SDs is 19.2%
3 SDs -> 6.59 %
4 SDs -> 1.68 %
5 SDs -> 0.34 %
8 SDs ->
What does this mean? If ESO's RNG is purely random, and if you do vMA 100 times, you should end up with the weapon you want in the trait you want. If you don't, your luck is very bad indeed.
How can we get a better idea of whether the RNG is purely random? There are tests that we can use, such as the Chi-Square test, that will give us an indication of whether the RNG is purely random, or whether it is loaded. To do that, though, we'll need the raw data from numerous vMA runs. So, for 100 runs, we'll need to know exactly what the loot for those runs were if we want to use something like Chi-Square.
Okay, so this was a fun stats-recap for me. If someone complains about getting 5 infused restoration staves in 100 runs, and no sharpened daggers, don't be too fast to shout them down. They actually have a point - the probability of getting 5 infused restoration staves in 100 runs is slim for a true random distribution. It should only happen to about 1 in 300 players. 8 Infused restoration staves should happen to about 1 in every 103 000 players.
If you do want to complain about RNG, do it sensibly. Collect the data and post it. If you do 300 runs it means that you're a sucker for pain. Recording your loot in Excel is much simpler than doing vMA. Just coming here complaining without solid data to back your allegations is a bit silly, though.
PC, EU
Not elite, not the best. Just enjoying ESO.
Not the worst either. "Casual" != "totally ignorant"
@taciti
Not elite, not the best. Just enjoying ESO.
Not the worst either. "Casual" != "totally ignorant"
@taciti
2
-
Draqone✭✭✭✭So, with larger numbers:
In 100 runs, the probability of an SD is 104%. That includes options of getting two, three or more SDs within those 100 runs.
No. Please.
The sentence "probability is 104%" should ring all alarm bells.
Probability of an even can NEVER EVER EVER be higher than 100%.
Edited by Draqone on March 16, 2017 10:23AMESO Balance:
“All skills are equal, but some skills are more equal than others.”0 -
malicia✭✭✭✭So, with larger numbers:
In 100 runs, the probability of an SD is 104%. That includes options of getting two, three or more SDs within those 100 runs.
No. Please.
The sentence "probability is 104%" should ring all alarm bells.
Probability of an even can NEVER EVER EVER be higher than 100%.
True. I nerfed the damage to 100%.
PC, EU
Not elite, not the best. Just enjoying ESO.
Not the worst either. "Casual" != "totally ignorant"
@taciti0 -
SquareSausage✭✭✭✭✭most the *** I get is decisive this, decisive that, meh.Breakfast KingPS4 EU0 -
Draqone✭✭✭✭So, with larger numbers:
In 100 runs, the probability of an SD is 104%. That includes options of getting two, three or more SDs within those 100 runs.
No. Please.
The sentence "probability is 104%" should ring all alarm bells.
Probability of an even can NEVER EVER EVER be higher than 100%.
True. I nerfed the damage to 100%.
It still doesn't make it right though, the issue was not the percentage (since you added percentages correctly in a sense) but the fact that your method was faulty in the first place. If you ever , for any event, get P(x) > 1 it means you did something wrong.
The probability of getting at least one SD in 100 runs is the same as:
1 - ( the probability of not getting no daggers (nd) ^ 100 )
P(nd) = 95/96
Thus, 1- (95/96) ^ 100 = 0.649 = 64.9%
So, if you do 100 runs you have a 64.9% chance to get a sharpened dagger.Edited by Draqone on March 16, 2017 10:34AMESO Balance:
“All skills are equal, but some skills are more equal than others.”2 -
malicia✭✭✭✭It still doesn't make it right though, the issue was not the percentage (since you added percentages correctly in a sense) but the fact that your method was faulty in the first place. If you ever , for any event, get P(x) > 1 it means you did something wrong.
The probability of getting at least one SD in 100 runs is the same as:
1 - the probability of not getting any daggers (nd)
The P(nd) = 95/96
Thus, 1- (95/96) ^ 100 = 0.649 = 64.9%
So, if you do 100 runs you have a 64.9% chance to get a sharpened dagger.
That makes sense - I'll admit that the 100% chance was bothering me a bit, but simple multiplication felt so logical.
So, if the probability of getting a SD is 0.649, then the probability of not getting one at all is 1-0.649 = 0.351. That matches what I get when I plug 0 daggers in 100 runs into the binomial equation.
Thanks for the correction!
PC, EU
Not elite, not the best. Just enjoying ESO.
Not the worst either. "Casual" != "totally ignorant"
@taciti0 -
Ep1kMalware✭✭✭✭✭
✭Firstly, I have very rudimentary stats knowledge. If someone with a better understanding than me comes along, please feel free to comment and correct me where I went wrong. I'll appreciate the opportunity to learn.
Something many people miss about RNG is that your chances of getting the same drop twice is supposed to be very much lower than getting different drops.
I'll take vMA as an example, as the drop possibilities are fairly much fixed and well known.
A combination of weapon and trait in vMA has a 1/96 chance of dropping. Thus, P(Sharpened Daggers)=1/96. P(Anything Else) = 1-P(SD) = 95/96.
Variables:
k = number of drops
n = number of runs
Then:
P(k) = (n!/(k!*(n-k)!)) * P(SD)^k * P(AE)^ (n-k)
So, if you do 1 run, your chances of getting one SD drop is: 0.0104 = 1.04%
If you do 2 runs, your chances of getting an SD drop is: 2.08%. That means that there is an 2.08% chance that one or both of the drops will be an SD.
However, if you have two runs, the chances that 1, but not both, of them will be an SD is 2.058%. This time the very small probability that both are SDs is excluded, so the probability is lower than in the previous example.
So, with larger numbers:
In 100 runs, the probability of an SD is 100%. That includes options of getting two, three or more SDs within those 100 runs.
In 100 runs, the probability of getting exactly 2 SDs is 19.2%
3 SDs -> 6.59 %
4 SDs -> 1.68 %
5 SDs -> 0.34 %
8 SDs ->
What does this mean? If ESO's RNG is purely random, and if you do vMA 100 times, you should end up with the weapon you want in the trait you want. If you don't, your luck is very bad indeed.
How can we get a better idea of whether the RNG is purely random? There are tests that we can use, such as the Chi-Square test, that will give us an indication of whether the RNG is purely random, or whether it is loaded. To do that, though, we'll need the raw data from numerous vMA runs. So, for 100 runs, we'll need to know exactly what the loot for those runs were if we want to use something like Chi-Square.
Okay, so this was a fun stats-recap for me. If someone complains about getting 5 infused restoration staves in 100 runs, and no sharpened daggers, don't be too fast to shout them down. They actually have a point - the probability of getting 5 infused restoration staves in 100 runs is slim for a true random distribution. It should only happen to about 1 in 300 players. 8 Infused restoration staves should happen to about 1 in every 103 000 players.
If you do want to complain about RNG, do it sensibly. Collect the data and post it. If you do 300 runs it means that you're a sucker for pain. Recording your loot in Excel is much simpler than doing vMA. Just coming here complaining without solid data to back your allegations is a bit silly, though.
I would but without seeing how the drop tables function how can you sensibly say anything. Perfect example: homestead patch notes where 'drop chance' was adjusted. So we already know some drops % vary by an unknown factor. Making up numbers with no basis to me, is not sensible.
Some of my personal observations, while trying to veer away from any sort of susperstition or magical thinking.. I can try to share.
I seems like this game gets stuck in patterns with drops. If I make a group to start farming for spriggans, we all seem to get item sets of the same set of a consistent period of time. It's almost all going to be vampire lord or almost all going to be spriggans.
Same with dungeons. Take coh1 for example. My group usually gets mostly leviathan, or mostly lich. While the last boss will mostly drop weapons. 2hrs later he can start spamming jewelry.
I've noticed this in imperial city when agility farms were a thing. If someone opened 3 chests and loaded up on robust agil our entire guild would be there collecting robust agile.
Same with refining mats. Periodically a guildmate will let us know that he's getting way more tempers/wax than usual, and we often join in with the same luck.
It's not a 100% but from what I can observe I'm likely to consider that zos doesn't use 1 drop table, but multiple drop tables that may or may not periodically switch, and that drop % isn't a simple calculation of total possbilites but rather is factored by an items appearance over several drop tables.
I cannot prove any of this, this is nothing more than speculation based on what I have observed.0 -
Surak73✭✭✭✭Yesterday I run VMA two times, and I got two 2h maul with the same trait. Infused...
I think the chances of getting the same weapon with the same trait two times in a row is about 0,01%, but I did it. I'm feeling very lucky lol...
Well, at least in the second run I got my flawless... 0 -
Draqone✭✭✭✭Yesterday I run VMA two times, and I got two 2h maul with the same trait. Infused...
I think the chances of getting the same weapon with the same trait two times in a row is about 0,01%, but I did it. I'm feeling very lucky lol...
Well, at least in the second run I got my flawless...
It's actually not that low.
The P of getting the maul specifically is 1/96 * 1/96 which is 0.01 but generally the probability of getting any weapon back to back is
1/96 = 1.04%
This is because it doesn't actually matter what weapon you get first. All that matters is the P of getting the same weapon on the second run which is 1/96.ESO Balance:
“All skills are equal, but some skills are more equal than others.”0 -
Thanatos1699Soul Shrivencorrect me if i'm wrong.. pretty sure it doesn't matter if you do 100 or 300 runs.. your probability of getting the desired drop is still the same as it was the first time you did it. doesn't go up or down.. hence RNG.0 -
Draqone✭✭✭✭Thanatos1699 wrote: »correct me if i'm wrong.. pretty sure it doesn't matter if you do 100 or 300 runs.. your probability of getting the desired drop is still the same as it was the first time you did it. doesn't go up or down.. hence RNG.
For any single run it doesn't matter but the probability of getting the weapon in 100 runs is greater than getting it in one run.ESO Balance:
“All skills are equal, but some skills are more equal than others.”0 -
Ep1kMalware✭✭✭✭✭
✭Thanatos1699 wrote: »correct me if i'm wrong.. pretty sure it doesn't matter if you do 100 or 300 runs.. your probability of getting the desired drop is still the same as it was the first time you did it. doesn't go up or down.. hence RNG.
Yes, op's math is what's known as 'the gambler's fallacy'.0 -
begemotz✭✭OP and all discussion assumes that the probabilities are equal -- do we know this? I have a very strong suspicion that they are not0
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Draqone✭✭✭✭Ep1kMalware wrote: »Thanatos1699 wrote: »correct me if i'm wrong.. pretty sure it doesn't matter if you do 100 or 300 runs.. your probability of getting the desired drop is still the same as it was the first time you did it. doesn't go up or down.. hence RNG.
Yes, op's math is what's known as 'the gambler's fallacy'.
It's not. OPs math was wrong, which I was quick to point out but it was not gamblers fallacy.
The OP realises that if he gets an Sharpened inferno staff it doesn't affect his chances of getting a sharpened inferno staff on the next run. (assuming this is gamblers fallacy).
The Op however fails to calculate the cumulative probabilities properly which means all the math in the first post is wrong.Edited by Draqone on March 16, 2017 11:35AMESO Balance:
“All skills are equal, but some skills are more equal than others.”0 -
Thanatos1699Soul ShrivenThanatos1699 wrote: »correct me if i'm wrong.. pretty sure it doesn't matter if you do 100 or 300 runs.. your probability of getting the desired drop is still the same as it was the first time you did it. doesn't go up or down.. hence RNG.
For any single run it doesn't matter but the probability of getting the weapon in 100 runs is greater than getting it in one run.
and your 101th run will still have the same chance as your first run was. doesn't matter0 -
malicia✭✭✭✭The Op however fails to calculate the cumulative probabilities properly which means all the math in the first post is wrong.
The numbIn 100 runs, the probability of getting exactly 2 SDs is 19.2%
3 SDs -> 6.59 %
4 SDs -> 1.68 %
5 SDs -> 0.34 %
8 SDs ->
Do you mean that these numbers are wrong? I did indicate that they're not cumulative (what I meant with "exactly") as the probability for an exact number of drops is a bit more useful IMO. Or am I missing something else?Edited by malicia on March 16, 2017 11:48AMPC, EU
Not elite, not the best. Just enjoying ESO.
Not the worst either. "Casual" != "totally ignorant"
@taciti0 -
silverhammer92✭✭✭I think what most here miss while looking at numbers is the fact that we talk %. If you have a percentage of 65% to get you desired weapon after 100 runs, that basically means:
65 people out of 100 people get the desired weapon after 100 runs
35 people out of 100 people do not get the desired weapon after 100 runs.
Hence this is RNG based, you have no chance to influence if you are one of the lucky 2/3 or one of the unlucky 1/3 of the players. But if you do 100 runs and don't get the weapon that does not mean you are extremely unlucky - that is how the drops are designed.
The real question (and that brings us to more calculations) is what percentage can be considered a guaranteed drop? As soon as we defined this number we can calculate how many runs we have to do to reach this percentage - and how many we would have to do to get this weapon twice.
Here are my findings (solved by formula: 1-(95/96)^x = y while x is the number of runs you need to ghet the dropchance y)- 90% = 219.9 runs
- 95% = 286.1 runs
- 99% = 439.8 runs
- 99.99% = 879.6 runs
I personally consider 99.99 as a "guaranteed drop". But even with a lower chance we can see: 1 out of 100 people will not get his weapon after 440 runs - and he is not extremely unlucky, it still is how the dropchances are designed!
and finally, 1 out of 10'000 people still does not have his weapon after 880 runs. Yes, this might be very unlucky, but still, the design allows this to happen - and we still did not consider the chance to get two BIS weapons.
Having a tokensystem would allow to cap the number of runs to guarantee your desired weapon to a certain number. Even if it would be a high number, it would be a fair thing to implement. If not, the variety of loot has to be drastically decreased. In my own oppinion it cannot be that a player does still not get his weapon after 440 runs...
edid:
those calculations go for a two-handed weapon (for example sharpened infernostaff). They do not work for one-handed weapons because they drop in doubles after one run...Edited by silverhammer92 on March 16, 2017 12:10PMFound a typo? Keep it!
(Wer Schreibfehler findet darf sie behalten.)0 -
Ep1kMalware✭✭✭✭✭
✭Ep1kMalware wrote: »Thanatos1699 wrote: »correct me if i'm wrong.. pretty sure it doesn't matter if you do 100 or 300 runs.. your probability of getting the desired drop is still the same as it was the first time you did it. doesn't go up or down.. hence RNG.
Yes, op's math is what's known as 'the gambler's fallacy'.
It's not. OPs math was wrong, which I was quick to point out but it was not gamblers fallacy.
The OP realises that if he gets an Sharpened inferno staff it doesn't affect his chances of getting a sharpened inferno staff on the next run. (assuming this is gamblers fallacy).
The Op however fails to calculate the cumulative probabilities properly which means all the math in the first post is wrong.
My complain with op's mass is that it makes too many assumptions. It makes claims of a singular drop table where all items have equal drop chance. We know this is wrong right off the bat because homesteae patg notes states that they adjusted drop%. I think there are several drop tables in play.0 -
Magdalina✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭
This actually seems pretty accurate. I remember making glass motif pages from fragments in multitude and it seemed that whenever I did several in a row I'd end up with same chapter. 3 maces(in a row). 2 bows. That kind of stuff. It also seems fairly consistent with Undaunted chest. If I get Bloodspawn shoulders then I'm likely gonna get about 10 Bloodspawn shoulders from 40 keys, 4-5 of them in the same trait. 1/4 is a whole lot when that chest drops shoulders from like a dozen dungeons. It seems consistent with whenever I open up many chests at once.Ep1kMalware wrote: »Firstly, I have very rudimentary stats knowledge. If someone with a better understanding than me comes along, please feel free to comment and correct me where I went wrong. I'll appreciate the opportunity to learn.
Something many people miss about RNG is that your chances of getting the same drop twice is supposed to be very much lower than getting different drops.
I'll take vMA as an example, as the drop possibilities are fairly much fixed and well known.
A combination of weapon and trait in vMA has a 1/96 chance of dropping. Thus, P(Sharpened Daggers)=1/96. P(Anything Else) = 1-P(SD) = 95/96.
Variables:
k = number of drops
n = number of runs
Then:
P(k) = (n!/(k!*(n-k)!)) * P(SD)^k * P(AE)^ (n-k)
So, if you do 1 run, your chances of getting one SD drop is: 0.0104 = 1.04%
If you do 2 runs, your chances of getting an SD drop is: 2.08%. That means that there is an 2.08% chance that one or both of the drops will be an SD.
However, if you have two runs, the chances that 1, but not both, of them will be an SD is 2.058%. This time the very small probability that both are SDs is excluded, so the probability is lower than in the previous example.
So, with larger numbers:
In 100 runs, the probability of an SD is 100%. That includes options of getting two, three or more SDs within those 100 runs.
In 100 runs, the probability of getting exactly 2 SDs is 19.2%
3 SDs -> 6.59 %
4 SDs -> 1.68 %
5 SDs -> 0.34 %
8 SDs ->
What does this mean? If ESO's RNG is purely random, and if you do vMA 100 times, you should end up with the weapon you want in the trait you want. If you don't, your luck is very bad indeed.
How can we get a better idea of whether the RNG is purely random? There are tests that we can use, such as the Chi-Square test, that will give us an indication of whether the RNG is purely random, or whether it is loaded. To do that, though, we'll need the raw data from numerous vMA runs. So, for 100 runs, we'll need to know exactly what the loot for those runs were if we want to use something like Chi-Square.
Okay, so this was a fun stats-recap for me. If someone complains about getting 5 infused restoration staves in 100 runs, and no sharpened daggers, don't be too fast to shout them down. They actually have a point - the probability of getting 5 infused restoration staves in 100 runs is slim for a true random distribution. It should only happen to about 1 in 300 players. 8 Infused restoration staves should happen to about 1 in every 103 000 players.
If you do want to complain about RNG, do it sensibly. Collect the data and post it. If you do 300 runs it means that you're a sucker for pain. Recording your loot in Excel is much simpler than doing vMA. Just coming here complaining without solid data to back your allegations is a bit silly, though.
I would but without seeing how the drop tables function how can you sensibly say anything. Perfect example: homestead patch notes where 'drop chance' was adjusted. So we already know some drops % vary by an unknown factor. Making up numbers with no basis to me, is not sensible.
Some of my personal observations, while trying to veer away from any sort of susperstition or magical thinking.. I can try to share.
I seems like this game gets stuck in patterns with drops.
It also appears to me, though there's no hard data to back that up, that some characters are just luckier than the others. Or maybe it's more account bound but seems more character specific. Perhaps their rng generator takes something character related when making up its numbers, too? Like Idk date of creation or something. When Undaunted just launched you may remember monster helm and shoulders being very, very far from guaranteed drops, a lot of people had to run a dungeon 30-50+ times for ANY helm of any trait. My luck has always been pretty awful, it took me about 50 DC runs to get that helm in wrong weight and worst trait possible and I took it. Most of my friends had their luck slightly better, in the range of 10-20 runs. But one of them was like...adopted son of rng gods. He got a monster helm literally EVERY run he did. Usually in divines too. After opening up some chests I think he ended up with like 9/10 chests having shoulders...like wow. It's not statistically impossible but it seemed so consistent it made us all wonder(and I don't mean to imply he cheated in any way, he absolutely didn't but rng was heavily favored towards him, so heavily for such a long time it was simply weird).
It also appears that you're extremely likely to end up with same drops on boss/same trait/weight of the monster helm. I find myself looking at 4 well-fitting visages way too often than I should.
I think their rng is flawed but then making a truly random rng is a truly challenging task.
Can't actually comment for MA because I don't want to run it
On side note, OP, your current numbers seem to make sense, just keep in mind that if we're talking rng there can NEVER be 100% probability of anything (not to mention >100% lol). Not after 100 runs, not after 1000, not after 100000000. It might be 99.99999999% but there's still a possibility, even and especially with perfect rng system, of the one outcome you want not happening.
...which is why we need tokens >.>
/walloftextover
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Draqone✭✭✭✭If you do 2 runs, your chances of getting an SD drop is: 2.08%. That means that there is an 2.08% chance that one or both of the drops will be an SD.
However, if you have two runs, the chances that 1, but not both, of them will be an SD is 2.058%. This time the very small probability that both are SDs is excluded, so the probability is lower than in the previous example.
It's this math that is still wrong in the OP. The one you quoted above is right.
For 2 runs the chances of getting an SD drop is not 1.04 +1.04 but:
1 - (95/96)^2 = 2.07
and the chances of getting exactly one is
1- (95/96)^2 - (1/96) ^2 = 2.0616% (alternatively you can get the same number using your formula).
PS: Token system, yes please.Edited by Draqone on March 16, 2017 12:30PMESO Balance:
“All skills are equal, but some skills are more equal than others.”0 -
Meld777✭✭✭✭✭@malicia
Chance to get a specific weapon in 100 runs: 1-(95/96)^100=64%, not 100%.
Chance to get it in 300 runs: 1-(95/96)^300=95%, which means 1 out of 20 will still not get it.
However, my math implies that all 96 weapon-trait combinations have equal probability to drop. This has been assumed since Orsinium launch, yet, once 20+ people that documented their drops got 2000+ drops together, it was visible that the weapons didn't drop with equal chance but were divided by category, making the chance of a resto staff drop 1/6=17% and the chance of a sharpened inferno staff 1/144=0.6%. Only after people brought this proof to ZOS's attention, they fixed it with Homestead release (see patch notes).
However, there are still many drop documentation threads that give reason to believe that it's still not equal and that ZOS messed something up again.Maelstrom Arena Champion | Undaunted | Fighters Guild Victor
Level 50 Magicka NB | CP160+
nAA | vCoH1 HM | nSO | nCoA2 | nDSA | nMA | vVoM
PC EU0 -
Artis✭✭✭✭✭
✭What does this mean? If ESO's RNG is purely random, and if you do vMA 100 times, you should end up with the weapon you want in the trait you want. If you don't, your luck is very bad indeed.
There it is. That's where you are wrong. The math is okay, but, indeed, the knowledge is rudimentary.
The quote demonstrates fundamental misunderstanding of how the theory of probabilities work. There never will nor should be a guarantee of a certain outcome. You can consider longer series of trials and estimate the probability of getting a certain thing. But if it's not 100% - then it's not guaranteed.
Every trial should be considered separately and they all have equal odds of giving you different outcomes.
Just look at the coin. It only has 2 possible outcomes. 50% probability to get heads or tails. But it doesn't mean that if you do N trials, N/2 results will be heads. That's not how it works. It is possible (with a low probability of course - and the formula you use can be used to estimate it) that you will get all tails after 100 or 300 attempts. And yes, with purely random RNG.
The only when any desired outcome is guaranteed is when the number of trials tends to infinity. Other than that all your estimates are just the estimates. In fact, there's a normal distribution centered at what you calculated, so most probable are those ratios, but there can also be other ratios - the probability decreases as you move further from what you calculated of course.@malicia
Chance to get a specific weapon in 100 runs: 1-(95/96)^100=64%, not 100%.
Chance to get it in 300 runs: 1-(95/96)^300=95%, which means 1 out of 20 will still not get it.
However, my math implies that all 96 weapon-trait combinations have equal probability to drop. This has been assumed since Orsinium launch, yet, once 20+ people that documented their drops got 2000+ drops together, it was visible that the weapons didn't drop with equal chance but were divided by category, making the chance of a resto staff drop 1/6=17% and the chance of a sharpened inferno staff 1/144=0.6%. Only after people brought this proof to ZOS's attention, they fixed it with Homestead release (see patch notes).
However, there are still many drop documentation threads that give reason to believe that it's still not equal and that ZOS messed something up again.
Yeah, and 19/20 owning something that's supposed to be rare is already too many.0
