Veteran Maelstrom Arena (vMA) drop table and probability for Shadow of the Hist

sluice
sluice
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I have crunch some numbers to figure out the odds of getting specific Maelstrom weapons.
What I have right now (Please let me know if I missed anything or have wrong info here and I will edit :smile:)

There is a total of 12 weapons that can come from the holy chest.
Weapons
  1. Bow
  2. Restoration staff
  3. Detro Staff / Inferno
  4. Detro Staff / Ice
  5. Destro Staff / Lightning
  6. 2H / Greatsword
  7. 2H / BattleAxe
  8. 2H / Maul
  9. 1H /Dagger
  10. 1H /Axe
  11. 1H & Shield / Sword
  12. 1H & Shield / Mace

Each weapons can drop in 1 of 8 traits. (Training is thankfully excluded from the Maelstrom weapons loot table)
Traits
  1. Precise
  2. Sharpened
  3. Defending
  4. Nirnhoned
  5. Powered
  6. Charge
  7. Decisive
  8. Infused

So, in total we have 12x8 = 96 possible weapon combinations dropping in vMA.

Let's crunch some numbers...


What are the odds of getting X weapon with Y trait?
Each run, you have 1/96 (~1.04%) chance to get a specific weapon with a desired trait... but if the more run you accomplish the better the probability of getting the weapon you are seeking gets. As you can see, even with 100 runs down, the chances are good of not getting that Sharpened Inferno staff :
  • 1 run: 1.04%
  • 5 runs : 5.10%
  • 10 runs : 9.94%
  • 15 runs : 14.54%
  • 20 runs : 18.90%
  • 25 runs : 23.03%
  • 30 runs : 26.96%
    ...
  • 50 runs : 63.02%
    ...
  • 100 runs : 64.91%

What are the odds of getting X weapon in any trait?
  • 1 run: 8.33%
  • 5 runs : 35.28%
  • 10 runs : 58.11%
  • 15 runs : 72.89%
  • 20 runs : 82.45%
  • 25 runs : 88.64%
  • 30 runs : 92.75%
    ...
  • 50 runs : 98.71%
    ...
  • 100 runs : 99.98%

What are the odds of getting a 2H with sharpened trait?
  • 1 run: 3.125%
  • 5 runs : 14.58%
  • 10 runs : 27.20%
  • 15 runs : 37.89%
  • 20 runs : 47.01%
  • 25 runs : 54.78%
  • 30 runs : 61.42
    ...
  • 50 runs : 79.56%
    ...
  • 100 runs : 95.82%

Thankfully, if the weapon you are seeking is a Two-Handed (Battleaxe, Greatsword & Maul), you have 3 times as much chance of getting your holy weapon in 1 run..
And the odds are definitely more interesting than if you are seeking a specific combination such as an Inferno Staff Sharpened.

All in all this is pretty simple math stuff, but it shows how hard it will be to get the holy weapon you are searching.... Especially if you are searching for something very specific such as a Sharpened Inferno staff or a Dagger...

Token system, anyone?


EDIT: I have added the probability of getting what you are searching with number of runs.

The math being this comes from this wonderful thread, by this math guru @Recremen.

Edited by sluice on September 1, 2016 3:42PM
PSN: sluiceqc (NA-PS4) CP: 551+
I strictly play on Daggerfall Covenant for when it comes to PvP
Daggerfall Covenant
sluice - Orc Sorcerer (50)
Anýa - Bosmer Nightblade (0..50)

Aldmeri Dominion (PvE only)
Arýä - Altmer Sorcerer (50)
Marksar - Breton Templar (50)
Maksar - Bosmer Nightblade (50)
sluice - Imperial Dragonknight (0..50) R.I.P.

Ebonheart Pact
Can't-Heal-Stupid - Argonian Templar (0..50)

#VMATOKENSYSTEM #TRAITCHANGE
(vMA) drop table and probability
  • imenace
    imenace
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    well then i must be pretty unlucky considering im over 320 runs and i still didnt get my weapon
  • RoyJade
    RoyJade
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    320 failed run with 1% chance is not abnormal, sadly…

    A token system is really needed. You can't remove all less used trait because some are good for some build (okay, some really rare build for a few trait) but you can't maintain this abyssal drop rate.
    I actually have 9% chance to get something I need (9 good combination) myself, for one run per day (one hour per run). Most of my time is wasted on solo content when I can do multiplayer and funnier content...
  • AGrz5585
    AGrz5585
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    I've given up getting what I want from vma. I settled on a precise maul and an infused bow. And even without the sharpened, I'm doing fine in cyrodiil
  • idk
    idk
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    @sluice

    The questions becomes, how many tokens, @ 1 token per clear of vDSA, will it take to get a weapon? 10 Tokens? 25 Tokens? Granted, at least we would know how many clears per weapon we want.
    Really, idk
  • sluice
    sluice
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    @sluice

    The questions becomes, how many tokens, @ 1 token per clear of vDSA, will it take to get a weapon? 10 Tokens? 25 Tokens? Granted, at least we would know how many clears per weapon we want.

    Even if it's 25 or 50 tokens, it would be better than it is now.

    One suggestion, I have seen a few time and that I like is: let us exchange Maelstrom weapons for tokens. Say 1 weapon = 1 token. You get that RNG factor were you might be lucky and get it quick, but also the security of knowing that no matter what, eventually you will land your wanted weapon by trading a certain amount of weapons back.
    Jaronking wrote: »
    Charged shouldn't be in the loot table since the Ma weapons have a 100% proc chance

    Agree 100%. Plus we can easily argue that most traits are subpar to Sharpened. Buffing nirnhoned and precise would aleviate the issue of searching for the holy weapon.
    AGrz5585 wrote: »
    I've given up getting what I want from vma. I settled on a precise maul and an infused bow. And even without the sharpened, I'm doing fine in cyrodiil

    Yeah, I'm rolling with a defending Maul on a certain build, as well. From my quick test, I'm losing about 8-12% dps. But hey I have a nice intimidating Hammer!
    imenace wrote: »
    well then i must be pretty unlucky considering im over 320 runs and i still didnt get my weapon

    Yeah that's pretty unlucky, unfortunately...

    With the current system (100% weapon drop), say you attempt 320 runs for a specific weapon with a given trait :

    You would have 96.48% chance to get it.

    But then again these are just probabilities, you could always end up in that 3.52% unlucky ones in that context.


    I will add more interesting probability info, tomorrow. :smile:
    PSN: sluiceqc (NA-PS4) CP: 551+
    I strictly play on Daggerfall Covenant for when it comes to PvP
    Daggerfall Covenant
    sluice - Orc Sorcerer (50)
    Anýa - Bosmer Nightblade (0..50)

    Aldmeri Dominion (PvE only)
    Arýä - Altmer Sorcerer (50)
    Marksar - Breton Templar (50)
    Maksar - Bosmer Nightblade (50)
    sluice - Imperial Dragonknight (0..50) R.I.P.

    Ebonheart Pact
    Can't-Heal-Stupid - Argonian Templar (0..50)

    #VMATOKENSYSTEM #TRAITCHANGE
    (vMA) drop table and probability
  • Jaronking
    Jaronking
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    Maybe they can add a hard mode to the final boss beat hard mode version and your get a sharpened weaponed.
  • Ch4mpTW
    Ch4mpTW
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    Jaronking wrote: »
    Maybe they can add a hard mode to the final boss beat hard mode version and your get a sharpened weaponed.

    I have a feeling that a hard mode version of that boss would be ridiculous. Already as is the gap between normal and veteran is tremendous. So imagine hard mode and regular vet. :open_mouth:
    On the count of 3, everybody say, “Salami!” 1, 2, 3...
  • Wrecking_Blow_Spam
    Wrecking_Blow_Spam
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    Earlier I did 2 runs.

    1st run was a nirnhoned dagger which is 1/96.

    2nd run was a nirnhoned dagger. I'm not great at maths but those must be slim odds to get the exact same trait and weapon consecutively.
    Xbox one EU
    8 Flawless conquerors on all class specs (4 stam, 4 magicka)
    Doesn't stand in red
  • FriedEggSandwich
    FriedEggSandwich
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    I think you get what you don't want. Yesterday I had a precise axe and the day before I had a sharpened bow when what I really want is a sharpened fire staff. Perhaps I should be wishing for a sharpened 2h.
    PC | EU
  • dereck_phantom
    My drops from vma consist of restos mainly. With the same trait over and over. At least add a smart loot system where if we got that item we don't get it no more then reset the table once we get all the weapons with each trait.
  • Vaoh
    Vaoh
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    • Well over 150+ completed runs of vMA
    Tons of weekly rewards
    • All I wanted was the Maelstrom Dual Wield, aka Dagger/Axe

    I've run it on Veteran since about a month after Orsinium released.

    Only a few days ago I pulled my FIRST Axe out of the loot chest. Nirnhoned (-_-)

    This is testament to the better droprates than ever before. Still terrible, but I am happy about getting the Axe :smiley:
  • Bobby_V_Rockit
    Bobby_V_Rockit
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    *dreams of one day completing vMSA*
  • Ch4mpTW
    Ch4mpTW
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    *dreams of one day completing vMSA*

    It's not a dream, but a reality. I believe you'll even get Flawless Conqueror 1 day. You can do it, bruh-bruh. :)
    On the count of 3, everybody say, “Salami!” 1, 2, 3...
  • Totalitarian
    Totalitarian
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    Ch4mpTW wrote: »
    *dreams of one day completing vMSA*

    It's not a dream, but a reality. I believe you'll even get Flawless Conqueror 1 day. You can do it, bruh-bruh. :)

    My goal during the summer was to get Flawless Conquerer. But then I realised how stressful vMA is while learning it.

    So now one of my alts is on Round 9, at the final boss, before I decided 'I'll finish it tomorrow', and I haven't touched her in about a month.

    I'd rather just level up my alts, where it's nice and relaxing.

    No Stormproof, Flawless Conquerer, or MA weapons for me.

    But I really should finish vMA :neutral: I am basically right there
    PC NA CP 531+
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    Read their adventures!
    The Celestial Lady
  • bluecardiganman
    bluecardiganman
    Soul Shriven
    Jaronking wrote: »
    Maybe they can add a hard mode to the final boss beat hard mode version and your get a sharpened weaponed.

    Hard mode i like the sound of that. How about no gold ghost?
  • Vildebill
    Vildebill
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    Jaronking wrote: »
    Maybe they can add a hard mode to the final boss beat hard mode version and your get a sharpened weaponed.

    Hard mode i like the sound of that. How about no gold ghost?

    Do they really make a difference? It's just a stun for a couple of seconds. I would rather say that it would be easier without ghosts since you don't have to care to take them before the boss.
    sluice wrote: »
    Each run, you have 1/96 (~1.04%) chance to get a specific weapon with a desired trait.
    Each run, you have 3/96(~3.125%) chance to get a Sharpened 2H.

    Maybe I'm thinking wrongly here, but what is the difference between these two alternatives?
    Edited by Vildebill on August 31, 2016 7:39AM
    EU PC
  • redspecter23
    redspecter23
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    Maybe the end chest should just drop two separate components. A weapon "blank" (dagger, axe, etc.) with the appropriate enchant and one of 8 traits stones to slot in the Maelstrom blank. You can then mix and match your components as you choose. Once slotted, the effect is permanent of course. Instead of 1:96 odds each time, you have 2 separate chances of 1:12 and 1:8.

    This would basically boil down to finding each different weapon every 12 runs approximately and the most desired trait every 8 runs (sharpened), vastly reducing the RNG involved and allowing some customization. Those powered traits would go to the resto staves they should be on. Want to play around with infused on one of your extra axes you happen to have? Go for it. And you get to save those sharpened stones for when you pull the weapon blanks you really want to use them on whether you're going for 2h or 1h. You choose.
    Edited by redspecter23 on August 31, 2016 7:59AM
  • RoyJade
    RoyJade
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    Hard mode i like the sound of that. How about no gold ghost?
    I already kill the final boss just when the third ghost appears, and I know some people does even more dps. More than that, without the gold ghost the boss loose a dangerous mechanism.
    If you don't use the ghost synergy in order to get the HM, why not.
    Vildebill wrote: »
    sluice wrote: »
    Each run, you have 1/96 (~1.04%) chance to get a specific weapon with a desired trait.
    Each run, you have 3/96(~3.125%) chance to get a Sharpened 2H.
    Maybe I'm thinking wrongly here, but what is the difference between these two alternatives?
    There is three possible 2H : sword, maul and axe. That's the difference ^^


    I'l for a token system : one token per final boss killed. One token = one random weapon. 10 token : a specific weapon type with a random trait, or a specific trait with a random weapon. 20 token : a specific weapon with a specific trait.

    You can also have a special material (for example : "maelstrom coin") that you can use in order to create a maelstrom weapon. Like that you can craft your maelstrom weapon with enough material, and you can deconstruct the MA weapon you get for one of these materials.
  • Vildebill
    Vildebill
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    RoyJade wrote: »
    Hard mode i like the sound of that. How about no gold ghost?
    I already kill the final boss just when the third ghost appears, and I know some people does even more dps. More than that, without the gold ghost the boss loose a dangerous mechanism.
    If you don't use the ghost synergy in order to get the HM, why not.
    Vildebill wrote: »
    sluice wrote: »
    Each run, you have 1/96 (~1.04%) chance to get a specific weapon with a desired trait.
    Each run, you have 3/96(~3.125%) chance to get a Sharpened 2H.
    Maybe I'm thinking wrongly here, but what is the difference between these two alternatives?
    There is three possible 2H : sword, maul and axe. That's the difference ^^


    I'l for a token system : one token per final boss killed. One token = one random weapon. 10 token : a specific weapon type with a random trait, or a specific trait with a random weapon. 20 token : a specific weapon with a specific trait.

    You can also have a special material (for example : "maelstrom coin") that you can use in order to create a maelstrom weapon. Like that you can craft your maelstrom weapon with enough material, and you can deconstruct the MA weapon you get for one of these materials.

    Ah not a specific 2h, got it :wink: Hopefully we'll have a token system soon, 1.04% chance each run to get a specific weapon is horrendous.
    EU PC
  • sluice
    sluice
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    Vildebill wrote: »
    RoyJade wrote: »
    Hard mode i like the sound of that. How about no gold ghost?
    I already kill the final boss just when the third ghost appears, and I know some people does even more dps. More than that, without the gold ghost the boss loose a dangerous mechanism.
    If you don't use the ghost synergy in order to get the HM, why not.
    Vildebill wrote: »
    sluice wrote: »
    Each run, you have 1/96 (~1.04%) chance to get a specific weapon with a desired trait.
    Each run, you have 3/96(~3.125%) chance to get a Sharpened 2H.
    Maybe I'm thinking wrongly here, but what is the difference between these two alternatives?
    There is three possible 2H : sword, maul and axe. That's the difference ^^


    I'l for a token system : one token per final boss killed. One token = one random weapon. 10 token : a specific weapon type with a random trait, or a specific trait with a random weapon. 20 token : a specific weapon with a specific trait.

    You can also have a special material (for example : "maelstrom coin") that you can use in order to create a maelstrom weapon. Like that you can craft your maelstrom weapon with enough material, and you can deconstruct the MA weapon you get for one of these materials.

    Ah not a specific 2h, got it :wink: Hopefully we'll have a token system soon, 1.04% chance each run to get a specific weapon is horrendous.

    It is... but at least if you are searching for a 2H, you essentially have 3x times the chances of getting it.. (If you are willing to use any of them). I personally would much prefer a sharpened Maul, but ***, I'd be happy with a Battleaxe or Greatsword, too!
    PSN: sluiceqc (NA-PS4) CP: 551+
    I strictly play on Daggerfall Covenant for when it comes to PvP
    Daggerfall Covenant
    sluice - Orc Sorcerer (50)
    Anýa - Bosmer Nightblade (0..50)

    Aldmeri Dominion (PvE only)
    Arýä - Altmer Sorcerer (50)
    Marksar - Breton Templar (50)
    Maksar - Bosmer Nightblade (50)
    sluice - Imperial Dragonknight (0..50) R.I.P.

    Ebonheart Pact
    Can't-Heal-Stupid - Argonian Templar (0..50)

    #VMATOKENSYSTEM #TRAITCHANGE
    (vMA) drop table and probability
  • imenace
    imenace
    ✭✭✭
    the gods of RNG blessed me today, 5 runs and got 2 sharpened 2h :O axe and maul, sadly i was looking for a greatsword but the maul will have to do
  • Jaybe_Mawfaka
    Jaybe_Mawfaka
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    200+ runs over here, still have no weapon that I wanted the most. Rng 1 love
    Krazzt Blackheart - The One And Only
    Retired, call me back when pvp will be great again.
    Wake me up when it's all over.
  • sluice
    sluice
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    imenace wrote: »
    the gods of RNG blessed me today, 5 runs and got 2 sharpened 2h :O axe and maul, sadly i was looking for a greatsword but the maul will have to do

    Wow, I'm happy for you and jealous for me!

    Maul is the #1 weapon I want.

    200+ runs over here, still have no weapon that I wanted the most. Rng 1 love
    How many drops in those 200+ runs? Still that's way too many for not getting what you are grinding for. :disappointed:

    PSN: sluiceqc (NA-PS4) CP: 551+
    I strictly play on Daggerfall Covenant for when it comes to PvP
    Daggerfall Covenant
    sluice - Orc Sorcerer (50)
    Anýa - Bosmer Nightblade (0..50)

    Aldmeri Dominion (PvE only)
    Arýä - Altmer Sorcerer (50)
    Marksar - Breton Templar (50)
    Maksar - Bosmer Nightblade (50)
    sluice - Imperial Dragonknight (0..50) R.I.P.

    Ebonheart Pact
    Can't-Heal-Stupid - Argonian Templar (0..50)

    #VMATOKENSYSTEM #TRAITCHANGE
    (vMA) drop table and probability
  • the_man_of_steal
    the_man_of_steal
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    imenace wrote: »
    well then i must be pretty unlucky considering im over 320 runs and i still didnt get my weapon

    wow. :(
  • Jaronking
    Jaronking
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    imenace wrote: »
    the gods of RNG blessed me today, 5 runs and got 2 sharpened 2h :O axe and maul, sadly i was looking for a greatsword but the maul will have to do
    I hate you :'(
  • luen79rwb17_ESO
    luen79rwb17_ESO
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    Weapons should be placed on the daily quest. Once you complete it you have the chance to pick 1 of 3 random weapon/trait choices.
    PC/DC/NAserver

    V16 sorc - V16 temp - V16 dk - V1 nb - V1 temp - V1 dk
  • RoyJade
    RoyJade
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    Weapons should be placed on the daily quest. Once you complete it you have the chance to pick 1 of 3 random weapon/trait choices.

    Not a bad idea. Or a key who open one chest, with three chest : the magicka way (fourth staffs), the stamina way (2H, daggers and axes) and the health way (sword and hammer, and let's add shield and/or jewelries as a second loot).
  • Martol
    Martol
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    I picked up a defending Inferno on my 6th run
    i jest wanna git gud ;_;
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