Sooo. RNG 12% um no

ThePonzzz

Anyone who has worked in game development knows it's not just a RNG that makes the call. You need something that USES a RNG to make the call.

For example, at the most basic level of drops in a game, the action involved to getting a drop is killing the creature. It then selects a number. If that number meets the goal, you get the drop. But this is the most basic form of the use of a RNG.

Most cases, you're undergoing a series of checks. Did you contribute X amount of damage, did X amount of time pass since the last drop, what role did you play in the group, etc. Time it took. After that, you have modifiers (sometimes positive of negative). And then after all that, the number selected helps determine the reward. In my experience, it's never ever been a straight random number determining the reward. ESO already has a lot of this in place, like cool downs and such.

But let's say it's just straight 12%, like the OP said. We can use this basic formula, where X is the % and Y is the number of times you've tried it to determine your probability.

1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

So 12% = .12 in decimal form.

He mentions 7 keys... That's our Y.

That means his chance of what he wanted dropping was 59.1% at the 7th key.

Oreyn_Bearclaw

Simply put, any pattern of loot distribution is possible with pure RNG, and it is all working as intended. It is statistically possible to get 274 reinforced lord warden shoulders in a row. Not likely, but possible.

Artemiisia

ha, im up to 200+ keys now for a kragh medium divine, still no luck

im not actually complaining, ill get it at one point, probably when its out of order :P

ThePonzzz

Oreyn_Bearclaw wrote: »

Simply put, any pattern of loot distribution is possible with pure RNG, and it is all working as intended. It is statistically possible to get 274 reinforced lord warden shoulders in a row. Not likely, but possible.

Yep, the best chance you ever have is 99.999% repeating forever.

Dev

Giles.floydub17_ESO wrote: »

@rysc

While you certainly were unlucky, such a small sample size does not say much of anything.

sample size doesnt matter in this as Deltia did a video with 250 keys, and had the same luck.

lambert then shown a slide which had the 'coded' distribution rate, and another that showed that their distribution has a variance of 2x, in other words:
If an item trait is coded to have a 12.5% drop (100/8), they consider it ok when it has a realized drop rate between 9.6% to 14.4%

You also have to factor in several stages:

1. will the drop have a set piece. some fights this is a given, others not so much.
2. will it be in the right set. zones have 3 sets
3. will it be for the right slot, there are 11 slots it can be (wep, shield, 7 for the 'on body' slots, 2 accessory ring/neck)
4. will it have the right trait, this is where lambert's chart would be

SO when you have 3 sets times 11 slots times 8 traits *(not 9 since it wont ever drop nirn) is 264 possible items, for a 0.003% chance at the item you want. That is 1/3rd of one percent. To make it worse, that is at what would be coded in an ideal universe. Considering that there is a +- 2 derivation, you could have it from 0.2 to 0.4% chance.

In other words: you could have a 99.998% chance of not getting the item you wanted. You have the same luck in hitting the lotto, getting hit by lightning or just spontaneously combustion.

Izaki

I got 3 Stormfist medium divines shoulders 3 times in a row. I was really happy until I realized that I only had 2 head pieces and that I used a different monster set on my stam DK.

Saltypretzels

Rev Rielle wrote: »

Giles.floydub17_ESO wrote: »

@rysc

While you certainly were unlucky, such a small sample size does not say much of anything.

Exactly.
All these RNG complaint threads and similar over the months have only really highlighted one thing: Kids these days at school don't seem to pay enough attention in mathmetics.

I'm not sure what decade you went to school, but in my opinion, kids have never paid attention to mathematics. 50,40,30,20,10 years ago, or recently. Except for the handful of smart ones. Which includes us of course.

Kartalin

code65536 wrote: »

Well, seeing as how you have a small sample size... and you're opening a chest that drops only 4 different shoulders (the center chest only drops Warden, Kena, Veli, and Chudan), you really shouldn't be surprised that you got a string of the same type.

I can't wait till I get my 12 medium velidreth shoulders in a row to finally balance out the probabilities, even though 6 of the will be training and prosperous.

AhPook_Is_Here

rysc wrote: »

So yesterday, used four keys and got two Lord wardens pauldrons, both reinforced and two Lord Wardens epaulets, one well fitted and one sturdy.

Today I get another Lord Warden paudlron, reinforced.

then I got another two keys and received two molag kena reinforced arm cops.

So whats the formula for RNG again?

I'd say you are lucky, chance of getting 3 reinforced in a row is like almost 1 in 600

Pallmor

rysc wrote: »

So yesterday, used four keys and got two Lord wardens pauldrons, both reinforced and two Lord Wardens epaulets, one well fitted and one sturdy.

Today I get another Lord Warden paudlron, reinforced.

then I got another two keys and received two molag kena reinforced arm cops.

So whats the formula for RNG again?

Yeah, I had the same thing happen with Ilambris when I did several dungeon runs recently. I got something like 3 or 4 in a row (out of a run of maybe 10 dungeons). No freaking way that that was random.

itsfatbass

RNG = Random NONSENSE Generator

Bobby_V_Rockit

I mostly get chudan or lord warden epaulets. I'm yet to get divines medium velidreth. Gotten 2 in heavy though

Qyrk

Better question for you, OP

'How long is a piece of string?'

PurifedBladez

You don't even know how many velidreth shoulders I have

ThePonzzz

Qyrk wrote: »

Better question for you, OP

'How long is a piece of string?'

Not sure if many will understand your idiom. I laughed though.

LadyLethalla

Recently I needed Ilambris light Divines shoulders to complete my MagSorc's gear.
Tried a couple of keys on one character, got two of the same shoulders of a different set. Went away for a while. Logged in on a different character, opened up the Undaunted chest, got exactly what I wanted.

Mind you, that stands out amongst all my own examples of bad drops.

Drasn

ThePonzzz wrote: »

Anyone who has worked in game development knows it's not just a RNG that makes the call. You need something that USES a RNG to make the call.

For example, at the most basic level of drops in a game, the action involved to getting a drop is killing the creature. It then selects a number. If that number meets the goal, you get the drop. But this is the most basic form of the use of a RNG.

Most cases, you're undergoing a series of checks. Did you contribute X amount of damage, did X amount of time pass since the last drop, what role did you play in the group, etc. Time it took. After that, you have modifiers (sometimes positive of negative). And then after all that, the number selected helps determine the reward. In my experience, it's never ever been a straight random number determining the reward. ESO already has a lot of this in place, like cool downs and such.

But let's say it's just straight 12%, like the OP said. We can use this basic formula, where X is the % and Y is the number of times you've tried it to determine your probability.

1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

So 12% = .12 in decimal form.

He mentions 7 keys... That's our Y.

That means his chance of what he wanted dropping was 59.1% at the 7th key.

No.

It means that each individual key would have 12% chance on it's own. The key prior and the key after have no influence on that particular key. Therefore, the "y" in your formula is meaningless to the actual outcome.

Asardes

Big Chest: 4 sets, 3 weights, 8 traits -> 1/96 = 0.010427) chance you get what you wanted
Small Chests: 12 sets, 3 weights, 8 traits -> 1/288 = 0.003472) chance you get what you wanted

So RNG is not "biased". It's just that the probability is very small. For example on average you have to open Maj's chest about 200 times to have a 50% change to get Kra'gh medium divine shoulder.

(1-(1-0.003472)^200)=1-0.498=0.501251

Cyrediath

I have anger issues because of rng in game.

Bobby_V_Rockit

Aaaand I finally get my divines medium velidreth. Moving right along now...

Flaminir

I love mistress RNG... she is my comfort & protector...

And she delivered unto me a sharpened Inferno maelstrom staff on only my 5th run of vMA!!

After this I shall hear nothing bad said against her!

Pops_ND_Irish

Thank you for great RNG

ThePonzzz

thomas.k.grayb14_ESO wrote: »

ThePonzzz wrote: »

Anyone who has worked in game development knows it's not just a RNG that makes the call. You need something that USES a RNG to make the call.

For example, at the most basic level of drops in a game, the action involved to getting a drop is killing the creature. It then selects a number. If that number meets the goal, you get the drop. But this is the most basic form of the use of a RNG.

Most cases, you're undergoing a series of checks. Did you contribute X amount of damage, did X amount of time pass since the last drop, what role did you play in the group, etc. Time it took. After that, you have modifiers (sometimes positive of negative). And then after all that, the number selected helps determine the reward. In my experience, it's never ever been a straight random number determining the reward. ESO already has a lot of this in place, like cool downs and such.

But let's say it's just straight 12%, like the OP said. We can use this basic formula, where X is the % and Y is the number of times you've tried it to determine your probability.

1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

So 12% = .12 in decimal form.

He mentions 7 keys... That's our Y.

That means his chance of what he wanted dropping was 59.1% at the 7th key.

No.

It means that each individual key would have 12% chance on it's own. The key prior and the key after have no influence on that particular key. Therefore, the "y" in your formula is meaningless to the actual outcome.

We're talking probability. You can always get lucky.

alexkdd99

Turelus wrote: »

Rev Rielle wrote: »

Giles.floydub17_ESO wrote: »

@rysc

While you certainly were unlucky, such a small sample size does not say much of anything.

Exactly.
All these RNG complaint threads and similar over the months have only really highlighted one thing: Kids these days at school don't seem to pay enough attention in mathmetics.

I think it's also following the trend these days on MMO forums which is hear word or phrase then repeat without understanding what you're saying.

It's fine to have problems with RNG as a system, it's silly to complain RNG is being, well random.

At the same time we don't know if everything is weighted the same or not. And we probably will never know.

Drasn

ThePonzzz wrote: »

thomas.k.grayb14_ESO wrote: »

ThePonzzz wrote: »

Anyone who has worked in game development knows it's not just a RNG that makes the call. You need something that USES a RNG to make the call.

For example, at the most basic level of drops in a game, the action involved to getting a drop is killing the creature. It then selects a number. If that number meets the goal, you get the drop. But this is the most basic form of the use of a RNG.

Most cases, you're undergoing a series of checks. Did you contribute X amount of damage, did X amount of time pass since the last drop, what role did you play in the group, etc. Time it took. After that, you have modifiers (sometimes positive of negative). And then after all that, the number selected helps determine the reward. In my experience, it's never ever been a straight random number determining the reward. ESO already has a lot of this in place, like cool downs and such.

But let's say it's just straight 12%, like the OP said. We can use this basic formula, where X is the % and Y is the number of times you've tried it to determine your probability.

1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

So 12% = .12 in decimal form.

He mentions 7 keys... That's our Y.

That means his chance of what he wanted dropping was 59.1% at the 7th key.

No.

It means that each individual key would have 12% chance on it's own. The key prior and the key after have no influence on that particular key. Therefore, the "y" in your formula is meaningless to the actual outcome.

We're talking probability. You can always get lucky.

Except the formula you posted is still wrong.

If using a key were like pulling a card from a deck and then discarding until you got the card you wanted then your formula would be correct as the probability that you draw the card you want would grow with each discard. However, using a key is like rolling two dice where if an unwanted outcome is attained it is not removed from the equation and therefore is still a possible outcome on each successive roll.

ThePonzzz

thomas.k.grayb14_ESO wrote: »

ThePonzzz wrote: »

thomas.k.grayb14_ESO wrote: »

ThePonzzz wrote: »

Anyone who has worked in game development knows it's not just a RNG that makes the call. You need something that USES a RNG to make the call.

For example, at the most basic level of drops in a game, the action involved to getting a drop is killing the creature. It then selects a number. If that number meets the goal, you get the drop. But this is the most basic form of the use of a RNG.

Most cases, you're undergoing a series of checks. Did you contribute X amount of damage, did X amount of time pass since the last drop, what role did you play in the group, etc. Time it took. After that, you have modifiers (sometimes positive of negative). And then after all that, the number selected helps determine the reward. In my experience, it's never ever been a straight random number determining the reward. ESO already has a lot of this in place, like cool downs and such.

But let's say it's just straight 12%, like the OP said. We can use this basic formula, where X is the % and Y is the number of times you've tried it to determine your probability.

1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )

So 12% = .12 in decimal form.

He mentions 7 keys... That's our Y.

That means his chance of what he wanted dropping was 59.1% at the 7th key.

No.

It means that each individual key would have 12% chance on it's own. The key prior and the key after have no influence on that particular key. Therefore, the "y" in your formula is meaningless to the actual outcome.

We're talking probability. You can always get lucky.

Except the formula you posted is still wrong.

If using a key were like pulling a card from a deck and then discarding until you got the card you wanted then your formula would be correct as the probability that you draw the card you want would grow with each discard. However, using a key is like rolling two dice where if an unwanted outcome is attained it is not removed from the equation and therefore is still a possible outcome on each successive roll.

You've got the wrong idea of what I'm displaying. We're not calculating the odds of it actually happening. We're calculating the likelihood of it happening. That's all.

Dawnblade

Drops from key chests and bosses should never have non combat traits.

It is bad enough the traits are as imbalanced as they are and that loot tables are polluted by traits that are much less useful than others, but it's a giant middle finger to players to have drops with traits that provide ZERO combat benefit.

Prosperous and training should be stuff for crafted sets and maybe random chests and trash drops, not undaunted keys, reward chests, or boss drops.

Infinite12

kyle.wilson wrote: »

It's still rng.
And there's no formula for rng on shoulders. You just got a bad role of the dice.

That is an unsatisfactory answer. And I'll tell you why, because you get more bad rolls than good ones. It's not random. It is definitely rigged to make it harder for you to get anything decent. That's why terrible traits still exist in max level gear. Training? Well fitted? Prosperous? Those should not exist on dropped, bound, items. But they do solely to dilute drops and make it harder for you to get anything worth while. There's a greater chance that something completely poops is going to drop than something you need. That's not random, that's rigged.

mvffins

Wow we complaining about undaunted shoulders RNG but not motif dropping RNG for draugr?

Asardes

Well, TBH each time I spend the 6 keys at leas 1-2 of the shoulders I get are with decent traits: divines or impenetrable. But most times I check them against my dedicated bank char's inventory and find out I already have them. For example on Saturday I ran all 3 pledges with some friends - I only run them occasionally now as I'm quite bored of them - took 6 keys and spent 3 on Maj's chest and 3 on Glirion's chest. 4 of the shoulders were indeed carp, but I pulled a divines heavy Engine Guardian for the former and divines light Nerien'eth from the latter. The last one I already had so I only kept the first.

Right after One Tamriel I really had an acute storage problem, and until I could find the time to make that dedicated monster set bank char I had no choice but to keep the keys which were now coming at the rate of 5-6 a day. I had amassed 220 of them on one char (they stack up to 200) and another 60 on another that I had just ran trough most of the dungeons to get the skill points and level up undaunted. I opened all chests they day I had the bank char ready. I've decided to keep around 30 of the shoulders I've gotten then, so better than 10%. Some were in good traits but broke them up nevertheless, since they were doubles so probably the good trait drop rate was much higher. For example I got 3 light divines Grothdarr in the same string - probably not consecutive, but pretty close together because I had them in inventory at the same time. I only spent my chests on Maj's chest - about 40% - and on Glirion's - the rest 60% - since I wasn't hunting for one set specifically, but those chests contained most of the new sets - especially Glirion's - and I already had the shoulders from the DLC dungeons in perfect traits & weights already.

So I didn't really encounter any increased drop probability for utterly useless traits compared to what was expected from a large number of random extractions. It's only the perception bias for people hunting a very specific item and not receiving it - which is not unexpected, taking into account the odds - that influences the view on RNG. I understand how RNG works in this game so I have resigned myself to simply casting a wide net and keeping the items that might prove useful in the future, rather than feverishly farming for a specific gear piece that I need right now. The only exception has been a piece of Ebon Armory which I really needed in perfect trait. It took dozens of runs of COA1, mostly in vet, with random groups since I didn't have people to farm with at the moment, to get that piece. But while running the dungeon I've also gotten quite a few pieces of divines Shroud of the Lich, Leviathan and two Ilambris heads, one medium and the other light, which I also kept so I don't have to re-farm them later. Overall it hasn't been such a bad experience. So I never discard "bycatch" even if I don't need it right away.