Demystifying Crown Crate Drop Chances with 80,000 Simulations

zaria

Recremen wrote: »

Dominoid wrote: »

Valethar wrote: »

Translation: Crown crates are a blatant ripoff, and they should have stuck to populating the store at reasonable prices instead.

They're actually a pretty good deal if you don't care what you get - if you just want a variety of virtual goodies. If you want something in particular, it would certainly be better to be able to buy it outright.

That sounds like it would only hit a very small subset of the population, though. People seem to like tailoring their purchases to account for their character's aesthetic needs, whether that's a fat orc in a bellydancer outfit to an argonian looking for a new hairstyle. Even the various hats and mounts are a bit niche, except for the three minutes of wonder someone might get as they gaze at their shiny new item, only to tuck it away forever again. Moreover, even if someone did want absolutely everything in the gambling boxes, it seems that they'd be better served by just being able to buy what they want from the Crown Store and skip the waste of time that is opening a few hundred gambling boxes.

Just food for thought: saying something is a good deal should be first analyzed in comparison to existing methods of sale. In this case, it seems that the better alternative is always going to be actually buying things directly, not buying a chance at winning something.

This, I used crown crates to get an armored robe outfit, the standard costumes are more like evening wear and I wanted something I could hide crap gear with and look decent in an dungeon.
Lots of consumable who I returned for gems, superior stuff: one outfit I might use, 2 other outfits who I will never use two hairs I can not use. cost me 15 crates and I had the gems to buy the outfit.

Was another outfit who was epic I wanted, I bought an mansion instead

My threshold for the crates is way higher than for the crown store. eso+ so crowns to burn.

And the consumables are junk to fool inexperienced players, blue food are cheap.
For lower level probably free in guild as people make it to level up.

bluemanjoe_ESO

Dominoid wrote: »

We then ran 10,000 simulations for each of the following scenarios:

i'm confused about the 1 crate scenario. 444 1+ apex, but 452 total apex.

Does that mean 8/10,000 crates had 2 apexx in the crate?

I thought you can only get an apex on the bonus card? If that is true you might have to redo the simulation..?

Huyen

RNG is still a huge issue tho. People buy one crate and get the mount. Others buy 100 crates and get only ***.

Vahrokh

Crimsonwolf666 wrote: »

Opened 46 crates.....no apex mount at all...:(

It's useless complaining.

People like you, ready to waste untold amount of money for RNG loot, are those who fuel the "designers" who setup this kind of lottery gameplay.

If nobody would buy these money making schemes then they'd have to implement something more decent, like tokens or other *predictable* ways to get stuff.

SaRuZ

Vahrokh wrote: »

Crimsonwolf666 wrote: »

Opened 46 crates.....no apex mount at all...:(

It's useless complaining.

People like you, ready to waste untold amount of money for RNG loot, are those who fuel the "designers" who setup this kind of lottery gameplay.

If nobody would buy these money making schemes then they'd have to implement something more decent, like tokens or other *predictable* ways to get stuff.

RNG Tokens, lol.

It's coming, I feel it.

zaria

Huyen wrote: »

RNG is still a huge issue tho. People buy one crate and get the mount. Others buy 100 crates and get only ***.

yes, but as you get refunds on duplicates and can sell back consumables its an upper limit of 67, average is 39.
67 will require that you get all the other apex rewards before the one you want so its as unlikely as getting it on the first.

Vahrokh

SaRuZ wrote: »

Vahrokh wrote: »

Crimsonwolf666 wrote: »

Opened 46 crates.....no apex mount at all...:(

It's useless complaining.

People like you, ready to waste untold amount of money for RNG loot, are those who fuel the "designers" who setup this kind of lottery gameplay.

If nobody would buy these money making schemes then they'd have to implement something more decent, like tokens or other *predictable* ways to get stuff.

RNG Tokens, lol.

It's coming, I feel it.

Yeah, SWTOR is teaching how to annoy their playerbase.
But at least we mass unsubbed off there, just to show them a good middle finger to their RNG concept of taking our money.

When a company offers RNG, you don't study it. You don't make statistics on it, because the company of course created a profitable scheme for themselves, certainly not for you. You just reject it.

Gandrhulf_Harbard

Valethar wrote: »

Translation: Crown crates are a blatant ripoff, and they should have stuck to populating the store at reasonable prices instead.

^ This.

Will NEVER buy a crate - far too much experience of them being a rip-off in SW:TOR (now wonder why that might be).

Would happily pay upto 2 or 3k for a Wild Hunt Mount outright.

Heck at that price I'd probably buy the Bear, Horse and Wolf.

But they ain't getting a penny out of me for rip-off gambling crates.

All The Best

Blazedont

I open 2x the 1500box got 1 apex im happy

Gandrhulf_Harbard

Kagetenchu wrote: »

EDIT: Crown Crates would be gambling if there was a chance of receiving nothing in the crate.

I'll think you'll find that is wrong.

If the payoff can be demonstrated to be materially of lesser value than the "stake" - which delivers a net loss - then it is gambling.

All The Best