Edited by Dominoid on December 6, 2016 1:02AM
This experiment uses many assumptions that will be proven correct or not over the next few weeks and months. Hopefully an enterprising add-on maker will make a "Crate Opening" add-on that will automatically record all the cards awarded so we can better extrapolate the odds. If there is interest, I will fine-tune the parameters and features of the program and maybe get it to work as a Google Sheet for others to enjoy.
This uses information gathered by people who have purchased and opened crates, but is mainly based upon the community document started by Enodoc on the official forums:
This places the following odds of a reward PER CARD - not per crate.
Additional Assumptions and Actions
- You appear to be guaranteed at least one superior or higher reward per four cards. We did not force this in our simulations as the Card Odds reported by players take this into account. This results in some four card draws resulting in all consumables but this should statistically works itself out in the end of 10,000 simulations.
- The fifth extra card also appears to be a guaranteed superior or higher reward. We did force this reward in our simulations with the odds of 72, 16, 9, and 3 percent for Superior, Epic, Legendary and Apex. These odds are based upon the reported drop rates overall for the card types.
- We used a 20% chance to receive a bonus card
- For gem count, we sold Grand and Major XP Scrolls from the Legendary and Epic reward trees.
- For gem count, we sold all Fine and Common rewards
- Our simulations assumed a player started with zero rewards in their account inventory - worse case scenario
- When a duplicate reward was awarded in our simulations, the reward was converted to gems at the trade-in value.
We then ran 10,000 simulations for each of the following scenarios:
Some Rough Conclusions
- The chance of landing an Apex mount from a single crate comes in at about 4.44% per crate. This takes into account the 1% chance of an apex reward per four guaranteed cards and having a 20% chance of landing a bonus card with a roughly 3% chance of being an Apex.
- Opening a 15 crate bundle gives you a roughly 50/50 chance at an Apex Mount
- If you want a particular Apex mount, you will need to open 39 crates on average to get the exact mount you want or 400 gems to outright purchase said mount - whichever comes first.
You can find the data on all 80,000 simulations below: