Veteran Maelstrom Arena (vMA) drop table and probability for Shadow of the Hist

Myerscod

Your math is sound, but unfortunately the logic is not.

The way that RNG system works is that's it's a brand new roll everytime, so that means the odds of getting the weapon you want in the trait you want is

1 run = 1.04%
100 runs = 1.04%
1,000,000 runs = 1.04%

A token system is needed. A trait change system is needed. Anything but RNG is needed.

Only those who got their weapon and choice of trait would support the RNG system in its current state.

Id even be happy if they reduced the drop rate again but ensured you get a weapon that you've got equipped

I.e - run dw / bow means if you get a drop it's guaranteed a dw weapon or a bow

Oreyn_Bearclaw

Jaronking wrote: »

Charged shouldn't be in the loot table since the Ma weapons have a 100% proc chance

In the last week, I got the three weapons I want, but in charged. It is maddening. Honestly, I would prefer training. At least that would be useful, but I hope they dont get any ideas...

Oreyn_Bearclaw

Oreyn_Bearclaw wrote: »

Jaronking wrote: »

Charged shouldn't be in the loot table since the Ma weapons have a 100% proc chance

In the last week, I got the three weapons I want, but in charged. It is maddening. Honestly, I would prefer training. At least that would be useful, but I hope they dont get any ideas...

Edit: I did finally get an ice staff last night (defending) so I can at least say I have seen every weapon. My Resto staffs and Sword/boards outnumber everything else by a long shot. I just cant believe these loot tables are truly random.

sluice

Myerscod wrote: »

Your math is sound, but unfortunately the logic is not.

The way that RNG system works is that's it's a brand new roll everytime, so that means the odds of getting the weapon you want in the trait you want is

1 run = 1.04%
100 runs = 1.04%
1,000,000 runs = 1.04%

A token system is needed. A trait change system is needed. Anything but RNG is needed.

Only those who got their weapon and choice of trait would support the RNG system in its current state.

Id even be happy if they reduced the drop rate again but ensured you get a weapon that you've got equipped

I.e - run dw / bow means if you get a drop it's guaranteed a dw weapon or a bow

You are disagreeing with the fact that the more run you accomplish, the more chance you have of getting the wanted weapon?

Let me but it this way....
Player A and Player B both want a Sharpened Inferno Staff.

Player A - is willing to run vMA 100 times
and
Player B - who is willing to run vMA 1 time

You are telling me that both of Player A and Player B have the same exact chance at getting their Sharpened Inferno Staff?

I'm sorry but that doesn't make any sens.

Yes each run that is accomplish, there is a 1.04% of getting that staff... but in a whole, if you look at multiple runs together you can calculate the probability of getting the staff.

The math prooves that the more run you do, the more chance you have of getting your weapon.
But either way, there will never be a 100% chance of getting your weapon with a RNG system like the one that is in place right now.

But we agree on the basic idea of a token and/or trait change system.

sluice

Oreyn_Bearclaw wrote: »

Oreyn_Bearclaw wrote: »

Jaronking wrote: »

Charged shouldn't be in the loot table since the Ma weapons have a 100% proc chance

In the last week, I got the three weapons I want, but in charged. It is maddening. Honestly, I would prefer training. At least that would be useful, but I hope they dont get any ideas...

Edit: I did finally get an ice staff last night (defending) so I can at least say I have seen every weapon. My Resto staffs and Sword/boards outnumber everything else by a long shot. I just cant believe these loot tables are truly random.

Nice, that is so useful... NOT

Sword and boards outnumbers my drops as well.. but then again I don't have enough drops to come to any conclusion.

Still waiting for that Bow though... (I'm waiting vMA! I'll take any trait at this point!)

I'll run it once or twice tonight, depending of mood/lag.

Oreyn_Bearclaw

sluice wrote: »

Oreyn_Bearclaw wrote: »

Oreyn_Bearclaw wrote: »

Jaronking wrote: »

Charged shouldn't be in the loot table since the Ma weapons have a 100% proc chance

In the last week, I got the three weapons I want, but in charged. It is maddening. Honestly, I would prefer training. At least that would be useful, but I hope they dont get any ideas...

Edit: I did finally get an ice staff last night (defending) so I can at least say I have seen every weapon. My Resto staffs and Sword/boards outnumber everything else by a long shot. I just cant believe these loot tables are truly random.

Nice, that is so useful... NOT

Sword and boards outnumbers my drops as well.. but then again I don't have enough drops to come to any conclusion.

Still waiting for that Bow though... (I'm waiting vMA! I'll take any trait at this point!)

I'll run it once or twice tonight, depending of mood/lag.

The worst thing is that my auto loot popup will display "The Maelstrom I" as it cuts off the rest. It give you about 3 seconds of excitement followed by 20 minutes of rage. Basically, if I see that, I know I have a 1/16 chance at that point of it being a good drop because it can only be the inferno or ice staff.

This system is so F'ing broken.

Myerscod

sluice wrote: »

Myerscod wrote: »

Your math is sound, but unfortunately the logic is not.

The way that RNG system works is that's it's a brand new roll everytime, so that means the odds of getting the weapon you want in the trait you want is

1 run = 1.04%
100 runs = 1.04%
1,000,000 runs = 1.04%

A token system is needed. A trait change system is needed. Anything but RNG is needed.

Only those who got their weapon and choice of trait would support the RNG system in its current state.

Id even be happy if they reduced the drop rate again but ensured you get a weapon that you've got equipped

I.e - run dw / bow means if you get a drop it's guaranteed a dw weapon or a bow

You are disagreeing with the fact that the more run you accomplish, the more chance you have of getting the wanted weapon?

Let me but it this way....
Player A and Player B both want a Sharpened Inferno Staff.

Player A - is willing to run vMA 100 times
and
Player B - who is willing to run vMA 1 time

You are telling me that both of Player A and Player B have the same exact chance at getting their Sharpened Inferno Staff?

I'm sorry but that doesn't make any sens.

Yes each run that is accomplish, there is a 1.04% of getting that staff... but in a whole, if you look at multiple runs together you can calculate the probability of getting the staff.

The math prooves that the more run you do, the more chance you have of getting your weapon.
But either way, there will never be a 100% chance of getting your weapon with a RNG system like the one that is in place right now.

But we agree on the basic idea of a token and/or trait change system.

If you look at multiple runs together it's still the same chance.

Instead of vma, consider a bag with 10 different numbered balls in it. You have a 1/10 chance of obtaining the ball you want. You reach in and get the ball you don't want. You try again and you're chance is, again, 1/10...

You keep going and regardless of how many times you try to get the ball, the chance to get it is the same (1/10).

Yes, I agree with you that someone who runs Vma 100 times will 'probably' end up getting the weapon and trait they want, but on basis of probability, your chance to get it doesn't change regardless of the number of runs you do.

Tl;Dr even doing 1,000,000 runs you're not guaranteed a weapon + trait. Its still a 1.04% chance for every single run

Wtb token system

sluice

Myerscod wrote: »

sluice wrote: »

Myerscod wrote: »

Your math is sound, but unfortunately the logic is not.

The way that RNG system works is that's it's a brand new roll everytime, so that means the odds of getting the weapon you want in the trait you want is

1 run = 1.04%
100 runs = 1.04%
1,000,000 runs = 1.04%

A token system is needed. A trait change system is needed. Anything but RNG is needed.

Only those who got their weapon and choice of trait would support the RNG system in its current state.

Id even be happy if they reduced the drop rate again but ensured you get a weapon that you've got equipped

I.e - run dw / bow means if you get a drop it's guaranteed a dw weapon or a bow

You are disagreeing with the fact that the more run you accomplish, the more chance you have of getting the wanted weapon?

Let me but it this way....
Player A and Player B both want a Sharpened Inferno Staff.

Player A - is willing to run vMA 100 times
and
Player B - who is willing to run vMA 1 time

You are telling me that both of Player A and Player B have the same exact chance at getting their Sharpened Inferno Staff?

I'm sorry but that doesn't make any sens.

Yes each run that is accomplish, there is a 1.04% of getting that staff... but in a whole, if you look at multiple runs together you can calculate the probability of getting the staff.

The math prooves that the more run you do, the more chance you have of getting your weapon.
But either way, there will never be a 100% chance of getting your weapon with a RNG system like the one that is in place right now.

But we agree on the basic idea of a token and/or trait change system.

If you look at multiple runs together it's still the same chance.

Instead of vma, consider a bag with 10 different numbered balls in it. You have a 1/10 chance of obtaining the ball you want. You reach in and get the ball you don't want. You try again and you're chance is, again, 1/10...

You keep going and regardless of how many times you try to get the ball, the chance to get it is the same (1/10).

Yes, I agree with you that someone who runs Vma 100 times will 'probably' end up getting the weapon and trait they want, but on basis of probability, your chance to get it doesn't change regardless of the number of runs you do.

Tl;Dr even doing 1,000,000 runs you're not guaranteed a weapon + trait. Its still a 1.04% chance for every single run

Wtb token system

I think here it's a matter of perspective...
Looking at on a per-run basis, the odds will ever remain the same, but looking at X runs, it's a different story and this is what I have calculated in my initial post, thanks to @Recremen.

That said, I Wtb a token system too

RoyJade

You need to be really clear when you talk about stats.

The chance to drop one particular weapon with a particular trait in one run is equal to (number of good loot) / (number of possible loot) = 1/94 = 1,04%.

But the chance to drop at least one of this particular weapon while doing two run is better. That's NOT equal to 1,04 * 2, though. But it's a better chance, as long as we consider two runs at the same time.

Same, the chance of getting this loot while doing 500 run is huge. Each run still have a 1,04% chance, but if we consider all runs together you have far more than 1,04%. This chance cannot be 100%, though. The calculation is -if I remember correctly- equal to the chance to not get the loot factored by the number of run.For example, the chance to not get the weapon you dream about after 500 runs is (93/94 )^500 = 0,4755%, so you have a 100-0,4755 = 99,995% chance to get your weapon if you're doing 500 runs. But each run still have a 1,04% chance per run.

Recremen

sluice wrote: »

Myerscod wrote: »

sluice wrote: »

Myerscod wrote: »

Your math is sound, but unfortunately the logic is not.

The way that RNG system works is that's it's a brand new roll everytime, so that means the odds of getting the weapon you want in the trait you want is

1 run = 1.04%
100 runs = 1.04%
1,000,000 runs = 1.04%

A token system is needed. A trait change system is needed. Anything but RNG is needed.

Only those who got their weapon and choice of trait would support the RNG system in its current state.

Id even be happy if they reduced the drop rate again but ensured you get a weapon that you've got equipped

I.e - run dw / bow means if you get a drop it's guaranteed a dw weapon or a bow

You are disagreeing with the fact that the more run you accomplish, the more chance you have of getting the wanted weapon?

Let me but it this way....
Player A and Player B both want a Sharpened Inferno Staff.

Player A - is willing to run vMA 100 times
and
Player B - who is willing to run vMA 1 time

You are telling me that both of Player A and Player B have the same exact chance at getting their Sharpened Inferno Staff?

I'm sorry but that doesn't make any sens.

Yes each run that is accomplish, there is a 1.04% of getting that staff... but in a whole, if you look at multiple runs together you can calculate the probability of getting the staff.

The math prooves that the more run you do, the more chance you have of getting your weapon.
But either way, there will never be a 100% chance of getting your weapon with a RNG system like the one that is in place right now.

But we agree on the basic idea of a token and/or trait change system.

If you look at multiple runs together it's still the same chance.

Instead of vma, consider a bag with 10 different numbered balls in it. You have a 1/10 chance of obtaining the ball you want. You reach in and get the ball you don't want. You try again and you're chance is, again, 1/10...

You keep going and regardless of how many times you try to get the ball, the chance to get it is the same (1/10).

Yes, I agree with you that someone who runs Vma 100 times will 'probably' end up getting the weapon and trait they want, but on basis of probability, your chance to get it doesn't change regardless of the number of runs you do.

Tl;Dr even doing 1,000,000 runs you're not guaranteed a weapon + trait. Its still a 1.04% chance for every single run

Wtb token system

I think here it's a matter of perspective...
Looking at on a per-run basis, the odds will ever remain the same, but looking at X runs, it's a different story and this is what I have calculated in my initial post, thanks to @Recremen.

That said, I Wtb a token system too

@Myerscod

@sluice is correct, though you are not wrong for being suspicious. Probability is enormously complicated and if you don't understand every detail about a situation then your calculations can run awry. You are correct that the odds don't change between runs, but your overall odds after a particular number of runs are very different when taken as a whole. Here is my thread about RNG systems if you'd like to take a look and maybe get a better understanding!

Thornen

An even better solution would be to add in trait recrafting as a goldsink, that way you get a crap trait no worries just throw 100k gold at it an viola sharpened...

sluice

4 more runs and 4 more "meh" drops.

-Sword & Shield
-Maul (oh the excitement!).... charged
-Dagger : charged
-Ice Staff : Nirnhoned

In 14 Drops :
-4th shield
-3rd Maul (Defending, Powered & Charged)

sluice

3 more drops and one more shield. That puts me at 5 shields in 17 drops.

My last three drops:
-Dagger Defending (second dagger in 3 runs)
-Greatsword precise (uggghhh... One more run! Next ont will be sharpened!)
-useless shield. (fml)

Still no bow..


Edit :

4 more runs tonight, drops in order:
1. Greatsword, precise
2. Sword & Shield
3. Sword & Shield
4. Sword & Shield

I'm really losing my head over these shields. 3 in a row. Come on. I'm debating, If it's even worth continuing trying.

Quick recap:
-19 runs
-7 shields
-0 bow
-0 inferno staff
-Nothing in sharpened. Not even one of those useless stupid 1H sword.

ChunkyCat

Finally got a sharpened maelstrom bow.

lost count of how many runs it took, but if i had to guess it'd be somewhere around 20-25 runs.

and i still need sharpened dagger and sharpened axe.



-.-

Tyrion87

This thread makes me sad...

Yesterday I got my very first Inferno Staff but guess with which trait? Charged of course! I've got charged weapons 70% of the time so far which makes me think that the drop chance for this trait is higher than e.g. for sharpened. If it's true, your calculations OP are unfortunately not accurate since the drop chances seem to be different for each trait... with sharpened being the rarest one.

Btw does somebody know whether Inferno Staff with bad trait (like mine above -> charged) is better in terms of DPS than a non-set normal crafted sharpened Inferno Staff with spell dmg enchantment? Has somebody tested it?

Czirne

I would love to see some "malestrom weapon enchant" instead of weapons. Maelstrom two hand weapon enchant, maelstrom bow enchant etc.
You could enchant weapon with desired trait and desired looks to vma weapon. That would be lovely.

Ranger_SamII

Why not just let you pick what weapon you want at the end? Like the dude talks to you and give the options between a bow, a staff, a 1 handed melee, and a 2 handed melee. What weapon you get is random as well as the stat but at least you can pick. AND make it a one time deal. If you run it again you have the option to turn in your old weapon for a chance at a replacement.

This would at least make the whole ordeal worthwhile instead of just hoping and praying (or crunching numbers) to get the right weapon. And it would also save players from the 100+ attempts at the literal hardest thing to do in the game by yourself.

Skinzz

Way to go reviving a super old thread...

ccfeeling

You get the items , you leave VMA .
As business thinking , it's a bad idea .
So they have to control the drop rate , as less as possible .

firedrgn

RoyJade wrote: »

You need to be really clear when you talk about stats.

The chance to drop one particular weapon with a particular trait in one run is equal to (number of good loot) / (number of possible loot) = 1/94 = 1,04%.

But the chance to drop at least one of this particular weapon while doing two run is better. That's NOT equal to 1,04 * 2, though. But it's a better chance, as long as we consider two runs at the same time.

Same, the chance of getting this loot while doing 500 run is huge. Each run still have a 1,04% chance, but if we consider all runs together you have far more than 1,04%. This chance cannot be 100%, though. The calculation is -if I remember correctly- equal to the chance to not get the loot factored by the number of run.For example, the chance to not get the weapon you dream about after 500 runs is (93/94 )^500 = 0,4755%, so you have a 100-0,4755 = 99,995% chance to get your weapon if you're doing 500 runs. But each run still have a 1,04% chance per run.

You just did a boo boo on my brain. ,hehe
Thanks for the post.

Qbiken

First of all: There was a huge thread a few months ago that collected data on multiple vMA drops, can´t find the link to it but it was a legit post. ZOS actually changed the way the drops work after that post. The thread showed that the distribution of traits where very equal, were sharpened actually being the most common trait to drop, but what kind of weapon that dropped was very skewed. ZOS made some changes (like including 2 drops when getting dual wield weapons and reducing the droprate of resto-staffs).

Second: If you for real think that charged is a bad trait and should be removed you should do some more research regarding that trait. It´s an amazing trait for lightningstaff and a lot of builds even rely on that trait to proc status effects.

Thirdly (Hope that is the correct way of saying it): With the transmutation system being added you only need to get the weapon you desire, since trait doesn´t really matter (due to the fact that you can re-trait it). That makes the odds a little better to get what you want. If you´re more or less comfortable with vMA a round takes somewhere between 45-60 minutes (not talking about those who can do a run in 35 min, they´re a class of their own), and if you do it on classes like DK, Warden and Templar you´re almost guaranteed a place on the weekly leaderboard if you do vMA in one run, which gives you another chance of getting a vMA weapon you want + 5 transmutation crystals for each character on a leaderboard. There´s little to no reason to complain about RNG in vMA after CWC-patch. Transmutation crystals are really easy to come by and by just playing the game as usual you can easily re-trait 3-5 item/week. If that´s not an improvement I don´t know what....

Dexter411

@Qbiken
Over 50 vMA runs plus something like 10 weekly rewards and still no second bow.
Got plenty of 2h/daggers/staves but only one bow(and one shield).
The way ZOS handles rewards is lazy, there is no other way to describe it.
As the mr.Necromancer wrote why we can not pick weapon we want, hmm?
ZOS thinks that farming keeps players, yes but to some extend.

And same Rng is all over the place for hardest endgame content(that only small persentage of players) can finish as for daily writs(that everyone can do). This should never happen and should be changed.

Qbiken

Dexter411 wrote: »

@Qbiken
Over 50 vMA runs plus something like 10 weekly rewards and still no second bow.
Got plenty of 2h/daggers/staves but only one bow(and one shield).
The way ZOS handles rewards is lazy, there is no other way to describe it.
As the mr.Necromancer wrote why we can not pick weapon we want, hmm?
ZOS thinks that farming keeps players, yes but to some extend.

And same Rng is all over the place for hardest endgame content(that only small persentage of players) can finish as for daily writs(that everyone can do). This should never happen and should be changed.

Unless we´ve some statistic on how many players that can complete the hardest content I suggest we stop the guessing game. And don´t bring up the console stats that shows how many players have completed something, those stats are very misleading since they take in account anyone who ever logged into the game, whether they entered a trial/hard content or not.

I know the pain of RNG believe me, been counting my vMA runs since Horns of the Reach (167 to be exact), since I´m after certain Winterborn pieces that have a very weird way of dropping (Finally got one of the pieces I´m after). Now, I´ve never done vMA to farm weapons. I´ve only done it to improve my score and climb the leaderboards, if I got a nice weapon that was only a bonus.

In general RNG isn´t something bad, and you´re right that it keeps players in the game to some extend. Many people tend to think that as long as they get the weapon/gear they want their performance in trials/PvP (or whatever you want to do) will drastically improve, and when RNG isn´t in their favour and they don´t get what they want that creates frustration. People tend to overestimate how much a specific trait does to your performance. In almost all cases the difference is so neglect-able that I question the grind/farm. Unless you belong to that small top % you speak of, BiS gear isn´t needed.

Now I´m not here to question what gear people should use, because it´s up to themselves if they believe certain gear will improve their performance/experience with certain content, then I encourage them to go for it.

The way ZOS handles rewards is lazy, there is no other way to describe it.
Agree that it could be improved. Not saying anything against that.

Over 50 vMA runs plus something like 10 weekly rewards and still no second bow.
From a mathematically point of view, 50 runs is a very low number to make any conclusions regarding RNG/randomness. All I can say is keep going and hope that u get what you need.

Insandros

Take it the good side now, you only care about weapon type drops, traits doesn't matter much, so hope for the type you want then start collecting crystals, you'll get your stuff way faster than most of us did.