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Math and the Great White Whale: Your Guide to RNG (and why you STILL can't get the right VMA weapon)

  • Recremen
    Recremen
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    alexkdd99 wrote: »
    gard wrote: »
    Very interesting! Thanks for taking the time to explain it for non math wizzes like me.

    I kinda like the monster helm drop rates the way they are. Mind you, I don't have all of the sets I want.
    But after update 12, special sets won't be special anymore, because everyone will have them.

    In regards to the crates: I don't like the risk/reward. No way I'll ever buy one.

    I don't think any of them are really special anymore as most are easily obtainable and the few that aren't can be bought from cyrodil vendor.

    I personally don't care if everyone in the game has the same items as me as I don't have that need to be a special snowflake.

    This need to be a special snowflake is the true reason you see people complain when content is made easier, and not the often used cover of wanting a "challenge".

    On to the op post.

    I think the part about not being able to obtain the monster helm you want is atleast a little negated by the fact we can now trade with our group members.
    As far as the shoulders are concerned I guess we will have to wait and see exactly how the new undaunted system will be implemented.

    I read a great deal of your post but this is probably one of the longer post I have read in a while. Majority made for an interesting read.

    It's not negated by the ability to trade with group members, but it is lessened by the ability to trade! If everyone in your group is willing to trade with you, then each run of the dungeon actually counts as 4 attempts at getting the helm instead of 1. Thus, you can just multiply your "number of attempts" by 4 and get your new probability for a given number of runs.
    Men'Do PC NA AD Khajiit
    Grand High Illustrious Mid-Tier PvP/PvE Bussmunster
  • dodgehopper_ESO
    dodgehopper_ESO
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    All this reminds me of the annoying loot drops in STO before they had a purchase system used with a dungeon-based currency. I can recollect teaching people in that game (With a lot of hand holding) the dungeons people were afraid to do. I ran with a lot of the top players in that game at the time. It was always so frustrating that I would not get the final drop I needed despite hundreds of runs (on multiple characters). The really annoying part was the newbies that I trained coming back and telling me all manner of nonsense because they got the drop in their first try and I didn't. It drove me nuts. (I had the older set bits at Mark X and couldn't get one or two of the updated versions to drop). The point is I very well understand the annoyance with being the guy at 5+ standard deviations out of bad luck. At a certain point it is BS that some people get left out. This is supposed to be fun and not a job. As for me I'm not really motivated to do a dungeon for the gear, but I do get annoyed with a dungeon because of the gear if that makes sense. I'm really glad they've started to at least allow for sharing of loot - guilds that can work together can support each other when someone gets horrible RNG.
    US/AD - Dodge Hopper - Vet Imperial Templar | US/AD - Goj-ei-Raj - Vet Argonian Nightblade
    US/AD - Arondonimo - Vet Altmer Sorcerer | US/AD - Azumarax - Vet Dunmer Dragon Knight
    US/AD - Barkan al-Sheharesh - Vet Redguard Dragon Knight | US/AD - Aelus Vortavoriil - Vet Altmer Templar
    US/AD - Shirari Qa'Dar - Vet Khajiit Nightblade | US/AD - Ndvari Mzunchvolenthumz - Vet Bosmer Nightblade
    US/EP - Yngmar - Vet Nord Dragon Knight | US/EP - Reloth Ur Fyr - Vet Dunmer Sorcerer
    US/DC - Muiredeach - Vet Breton Sorcerer | US/DC - Nachtrabe - Vet Orc Nightblade
    EU/DC - Dragol gro-Unglak - Vet Orc Dragon Knight | EU/DC - Targan al-Barkan - Vet Redguard Templar
    EU/DC - Wuthmir - Vet Nord Sorcerer | EU/DC - Kosh Ragotoro - Vet Khajiit Nightblade
    <And plenty more>
  • Recremen
    Recremen
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    All this reminds me of the annoying loot drops in STO before they had a purchase system used with a dungeon-based currency. I can recollect teaching people in that game (With a lot of hand holding) the dungeons people were afraid to do. I ran with a lot of the top players in that game at the time. It was always so frustrating that I would not get the final drop I needed despite hundreds of runs (on multiple characters). The really annoying part was the newbies that I trained coming back and telling me all manner of nonsense because they got the drop in their first try and I didn't. It drove me nuts. (I had the older set bits at Mark X and couldn't get one or two of the updated versions to drop). The point is I very well understand the annoyance with being the guy at 5+ standard deviations out of bad luck. At a certain point it is BS that some people get left out. This is supposed to be fun and not a job. As for me I'm not really motivated to do a dungeon for the gear, but I do get annoyed with a dungeon because of the gear if that makes sense. I'm really glad they've started to at least allow for sharing of loot - guilds that can work together can support each other when someone gets horrible RNG.

    Yeah, I've been wondering what other games have been up to to try to reach a better balance between pure RNG systems and more player-friendly systems. I mean, ZOS clearly understands that pure RNG is extremely unfriendly towards the players, as evidenced by the change to Maelstrom Weapons and Monster Masks coming. So I'm wondering, why did they only go halfway? Did they just not do the mathematical analysis? They should!! You can get people to repeat content and still guarantee that they eventually get the gear they're looking for, there's no need to be content with some people never getting what they want.
    Men'Do PC NA AD Khajiit
    Grand High Illustrious Mid-Tier PvP/PvE Bussmunster
  • Lieblingsjunge
    Lieblingsjunge
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    These numbers give me a headache. I miss my books. .______.
    --
    On a serious note: Can someone TL;DR the drop chances of what was discussed in the first post, without all the numbers?
    Ignorance is the greatest weapon of tyranny.
    PC - EU.
    Lieblingsjunge(AD) - Racechanged Argonian :< | AR 50 - No double AP or Bleakers involved |
    Sits-On-Cacti(DC) - Problem?
    Fail-With-Tail(AD) - Healing Springs-spammer :<
    Tiny Liebs(EP) - Very Tiny. Also heals.
    Lieblingsmädchen(DC) - Magplar is love.
    The Dominàtrix(AD) - Chains, whip, whip, whip.
    Fluffy Furball Kitten(DC) - Kittycat, meow.
    Your Face(EP) - People make bad jokes about my name =(
    Liebs-With-Trees(AD) - Male argo with a big tail :>

    Officer/Sandwitch of Zerg Squad
    My title: The Maneater, Destroyer of Maneuvers, Bane of Potatoes, she who devours them, The Black Hole, the humorless, first of her name.
  • sluice
    sluice
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    Recremen wrote: »
    Yeah, I've been wondering what other games have been up to to try to reach a better balance between pure RNG systems and more player-friendly systems. I mean, ZOS clearly understands that pure RNG is extremely unfriendly towards the players, as evidenced by the change to Maelstrom Weapons and Monster Masks coming. So I'm wondering, why did they only go halfway? Did they just not do the mathematical analysis? They should!! You can get people to repeat content and still guarantee that they eventually get the gear they're looking for, there's no need to be content with some people never getting what they want.

    Wait, is there a change coming to Maelstrom Weapons in Update 12? Or you are talking about the last update that bumped the drop rate to 100%?


    These numbers give me a headache. I miss my books. .______.
    --
    On a serious note: Can someone TL;DR the drop chances of what was discussed in the first post, without all the numbers?

    What exactly are you looking to know?

    Crown Crate? Monster Helm? VMA Weapons? Something else?



    Edited by sluice on August 30, 2016 3:24PM
    PSN: sluiceqc (NA-PS4) CP: 551+
    I strictly play on Daggerfall Covenant for when it comes to PvP
    Daggerfall Covenant
    sluice - Orc Sorcerer (50)
    Anýa - Bosmer Nightblade (0..50)

    Aldmeri Dominion (PvE only)
    Arýä - Altmer Sorcerer (50)
    Marksar - Breton Templar (50)
    Maksar - Bosmer Nightblade (50)
    sluice - Imperial Dragonknight (0..50) R.I.P.

    Ebonheart Pact
    Can't-Heal-Stupid - Argonian Templar (0..50)

    #VMATOKENSYSTEM #TRAITCHANGE
    (vMA) drop table and probability
  • Recremen
    Recremen
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    These numbers give me a headache. I miss my books. .______.
    --
    On a serious note: Can someone TL;DR the drop chances of what was discussed in the first post, without all the numbers?
    @Lieblingsjunge
    It's unfortunately not a fixed number, like 5. It's an equation that requires two variables, and that has to be input by you. If you look at the bottom picture, it explains it in the simplest terms I could come up with at the time.

    Basically, you need to know two things. You need to know the drop rate of an item, and you need to know how many times you're willing to attempt to get that item. So if there was something in the Crown Crates you wanted, and you knew that it dropped 1% of the time, then the final step is simply to figure out how many times you'd be willing to attempt to get it. Is it a little more clear now?
    Men'Do PC NA AD Khajiit
    Grand High Illustrious Mid-Tier PvP/PvE Bussmunster
  • sluice
    sluice
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    Recremen wrote: »
    These numbers give me a headache. I miss my books. .______.
    --
    On a serious note: Can someone TL;DR the drop chances of what was discussed in the first post, without all the numbers?
    @Lieblingsjunge
    It's unfortunately not a fixed number, like 5. It's an equation that requires two variables, and that has to be input by you. If you look at the bottom picture, it explains it in the simplest terms I could come up with at the time.

    Basically, you need to know two things. You need to know the drop rate of an item, and you need to know how many times you're willing to attempt to get that item. So if there was something in the Crown Crates you wanted, and you knew that it dropped 1% of the time, then the final step is simply to figure out how many times you'd be willing to attempt to get it. Is it a little more clear now?


    Perhaps, I can try to explain.. from “dummy” to “dummy”
    (When looking at your graphic @Recremen, my brain freezes lol)

    Hopefully it doesn't overcomplicate things!

    The equation is quite simple, once you get the gist of it.
    To start with, you only need to know 2 variables.


    FIRST VARIABLE
    The first is the drop rate in decimal.
    Let’s pretend, that every time we kill a boss, we have 25% to get the said item.
    Therefore our drop rate is 25% and our first variable is 0.25.
    25 / 100 = 0.25 (the value we need in decimal)


    SECOND VARIABLE
    The second is the number of attempt you are willing to try.
    Now, for our second variable, let’s say you want to kill this boss 5 times.


    CALCULATION
    Now to the calculation, with for example our 2 variables set as so:

    VARIABLE1 = 0.25 //The drop rate in decimal
    VARIABLE2 = 5 //The amount of attempt you are willing to do


    The formula is simply this :
    (1 - VARIABLE1 ) ^ VARIABLE2 = RESULT


    So, let’s start by replacing both our variables :
    (1 - 0.25 ) ^ 5 = RESULT

    Now, let’s calculate: the order of operations (PEDMAS), dictates that we need to calculate what is in between our parenthesis first:
    (0.75) ^ 5 = RESULT

    Lastly, we calculate the remaining two values:
    (0.75) ^ 5 = 0.2373046875


    UNDERSTANDING OUR RESULT

    Now to understand what 0.2373046875 means.

    It’s the probability of NOT getting our item in decimal.

    Let’s turn this back to % :
    0.2373046875 * 100 = 23.73046875

    Let’s round this number after the first decimal
    23.73046875 = 23.7


    So, all in all we have 23.7% chance to NOT get our item.

    If you want to know the probability of getting your object subtract that result from 100%:

    100 - 23.7 = 76.3

    So, if you have a 25% drop rate probability, you have 76.3% chance of getting that item, after 5 runs.
    Edited by sluice on August 30, 2016 6:50PM
    PSN: sluiceqc (NA-PS4) CP: 551+
    I strictly play on Daggerfall Covenant for when it comes to PvP
    Daggerfall Covenant
    sluice - Orc Sorcerer (50)
    Anýa - Bosmer Nightblade (0..50)

    Aldmeri Dominion (PvE only)
    Arýä - Altmer Sorcerer (50)
    Marksar - Breton Templar (50)
    Maksar - Bosmer Nightblade (50)
    sluice - Imperial Dragonknight (0..50) R.I.P.

    Ebonheart Pact
    Can't-Heal-Stupid - Argonian Templar (0..50)

    #VMATOKENSYSTEM #TRAITCHANGE
    (vMA) drop table and probability
  • Lieblingsjunge
    Lieblingsjunge
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    THanks peeps <3
    Ignorance is the greatest weapon of tyranny.
    PC - EU.
    Lieblingsjunge(AD) - Racechanged Argonian :< | AR 50 - No double AP or Bleakers involved |
    Sits-On-Cacti(DC) - Problem?
    Fail-With-Tail(AD) - Healing Springs-spammer :<
    Tiny Liebs(EP) - Very Tiny. Also heals.
    Lieblingsmädchen(DC) - Magplar is love.
    The Dominàtrix(AD) - Chains, whip, whip, whip.
    Fluffy Furball Kitten(DC) - Kittycat, meow.
    Your Face(EP) - People make bad jokes about my name =(
    Liebs-With-Trees(AD) - Male argo with a big tail :>

    Officer/Sandwitch of Zerg Squad
    My title: The Maneater, Destroyer of Maneuvers, Bane of Potatoes, she who devours them, The Black Hole, the humorless, first of her name.
  • Waseem
    Waseem
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    this is the kind of threads i love to see on ESO forums.
    PC EU

  • Silver_Strider
    Silver_Strider
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    Too much math for me.

    I saw a cat with dice, so I'm just going to blame the Khajiit.
    Argonian forever
  • Waseem
    Waseem
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    farm molag bal skins to get an idea how those crowns mystery boxes will work, except that you dont pay 400 crowns each time you kill it in sewers
    PC EU

  • nimander99
    nimander99
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    How dare you post mathematical formulae in these forums! OUT! SHOO! AWAY WITH THEE!
    I AM UPDATING MY PRIVACY POLICY

    PAWS (Positively Against Wrip-off Stuff) - Say No to Crown Crates!

    ∽∽∽ 2 years of Elder Scrolls Online ∼∼∼
    "Give us money" = Box sales & monthly sub fees,
    "moar!" = £10 palomino horse,
    "MOAR!" = Switch to B2P, launch cash shop,
    "MOAR!!" = Charge for DLC that subs had already paid for,
    "MOAR!!!" = Experience scrolls and riding lessons,
    "MOARR!!!" = Vampire/werewolf bites,
    "MOAARRR!!!" = CS exclusive motifs,
    "MOOAARRR!!!" = Crown crates,
    "MOOOAAARRR!!!" = 'Chapter's' bought separately from ESO+,
    "MOOOOAAAARRRR!!!!" = ???

    Male, Dunmer, VR16, Templar, Aldmeri Dominion, Master Crafter & all Traits, CP450
  • WhiteCoatSyndrome
    WhiteCoatSyndrome
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    Recremen wrote: »
    As surely everyone's seen by now, Crown Crates are coming to the Crown Store. These items will always contain some amount of random consumables, and also have a chance to contain costumes, pets, and mounts! Pretty exciting for people who love random consumables, but maybe not for everybody. If you like random consumables, the probability of getting something you want in the crate is 100%! Congratulations!! If not, however, we have more math to do.

    ^I love this paragraph. :D

    But yes, this is why I'm a crafter: as long as I'm willing to stick with crafted sets, I can get what I'm after 100% of the time. And if I get enough pieces of a nice dropped set to compliment the rest, bonus.


    EDIT: Also, adding this thread to my sig. Yell at me if that's a problem, @Recremen .
    Edited by WhiteCoatSyndrome on August 30, 2016 9:37PM
    #proud2BAStarObsessedLoony
    PAWS (Positively Against Wrip-off Stuff) - Say No to Crown Crates!
    A useful explanation for how RNG works
  • Recremen
    Recremen
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    Recremen wrote: »
    As surely everyone's seen by now, Crown Crates are coming to the Crown Store. These items will always contain some amount of random consumables, and also have a chance to contain costumes, pets, and mounts! Pretty exciting for people who love random consumables, but maybe not for everybody. If you like random consumables, the probability of getting something you want in the crate is 100%! Congratulations!! If not, however, we have more math to do.

    ^I love this paragraph. :D

    But yes, this is why I'm a crafter: as long as I'm willing to stick with crafted sets, I can get what I'm after 100% of the time. And if I get enough pieces of a nice dropped set to compliment the rest, bonus.


    EDIT: Also, adding this thread to my sig. Yell at me if that's a problem, @Recremen .

    I know that dropped sets are what I should be using to have the most competitive PvP and PvE builds, but I use crafted right now just because I have actual control over how it looks. I have another thread covering proposed Restlying/vanity slot systems and how they'd impact the game, and I'm hoping ZOS takes notice. It's certainly a hot topic! But when you combine the lack of aesthetic control when using dropped sets with these problems with RNG, it's all the more reason to take a hard look at both systems!

    I'm totes cool with you using the thread in your signature, btw, I'm glad you found it useful!
    Men'Do PC NA AD Khajiit
    Grand High Illustrious Mid-Tier PvP/PvE Bussmunster
  • Recremen
    Recremen
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    Too much math for me.

    I saw a cat with dice, so I'm just going to blame the Khajiit.

    Khajiit make up about 1/10th of the population on Tamriel. Thus, whenever something goes wrong you can blame Khajiit 10% of the time, or 0.1. A Khajiit did nothing wrong (or in Math terminology, "is innocent of this crime") with a probability of 90%, or 0.9. The more instances of something going wrong, the greater the odds that a Khajiit was responsible for at least one of them. So for some arbitrary number of instances of something going wrong, we can calculate how likely it is that a Khajiit was involved somewhere.

    After 10 instances, we wind up with a 65.1% chance that Khajiit is not innocent of this crime. Good odds!! But after 50 instances, it goes all the way up to 99.5% chance. Probably a very naughty cat.
    Men'Do PC NA AD Khajiit
    Grand High Illustrious Mid-Tier PvP/PvE Bussmunster
  • NyassaV
    NyassaV
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    This thread needs more attention, I know it's old but OMG is it still relevant. IDC about crown crates just the loot drop rates
    Flawless Conqueror ~ Alliance General
    She/Her ~ PC/NA
    ESOFam Community Discord: https://discord.gg/gMntMb8
    I record things for fun and for info
    https://youtube.com/channel/UC0WuLVnsW177WKkKcvNuuYA
  • GeorgeBlack
    GeorgeBlack
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    Anyone read the title as Math and the Great White Male with Uncle Ruckus' voice by accident?
  • Threemoons
    Threemoons
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    I want to see this thread revived, especially in light of the release of Monster Hunter World and the frequent praying to the RNG Godz that goes on in chat....
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