Tempering Alloys are much rarer from Hirelings than Druegh Wax and Rosin (?) is.
I do seem to get them at a decent rate from refining. In fact, I got 3 last week from refining 30 Iron Ores.
I seem to have better luck when I'm trying to get rare items such as alloys, rosin, perfect roe, nirncrux etc....by doing things in the morning when traffic is not high. for example I skin my fish in the morning to knock out the system lag and rng competition. I know this sounds a lot of craziness but you don't have to believe me it may not be 100 percent right but I notice I get my best items in the morning when their isn't alot of traffic.
I save all my stuff I need to refine, deconstruct, filiet, survey hunting till early in the mornings around 4 am central time. (I Live in Texas), try it for a few days and let me know if this works for you. If So check out my twitch and follow me on twitch and twitter
The past few weeks, I have gotten nearly 0 tempers from my blacksmith (all skills spent, max level, etc). I haven't seen a Temporing Alloy in months.
On the other hand, my clothier/woodworker is getting Rosin, Dreaugh Wax constantly. And get tempers from every 20-3 mats refined. I've gotten 0 from 100's of blacksmithing mats.
I noticed that the price of Temporing Alloy has skyrocketed, is the RNG being bad to me, or has some value of the drop rate been decreased on blacksmith mats?