The following is the data and technique I have found to quickly level Provisioning on any character using the minimal number of recipes and ingredients.
All Inspiration Point (IP) data was obtained from the
CraftingXP Addon
My most lucrative harvest locations are the docks and ships. In some areas I could gather all required mats in about 3~4 runs of the dock and attached ships.
There is also a very distinct line it seems between ingredient leveled zones. Sometimes the break for one level is the most northern area of a zone versus the first area of the next zone. And sometimes the level of the surrounding NPCs doesn't always correlate with the level of ingredients found next to them.
METHOD:
From Level 1 provisioning, buy or loot the highest level GREEN recipe shown in the chart for each block of levels.
Make the required number of food or beverage.
Then add 1 point in Recipe Improvement to allow the creation of the next level of recipes.
Repeat the process with the highest level GREEN recipe for the next 10 levels of provisioning and then add another point in Recipe Improvement.
Continue until you have reached Level 50 in provisioning or Level 48 if you only want Level 3 hirelings. Level 50 Provisioning is required to make any Level 50 or higher recipes.
NOTE: You can complete the total required number of Inspiration Points using any combination of recipes, it is just up to you how many barrels and sacks you want to harvest along the way.
Notice that you can't make a L50 recipe until you are already Level 50 in provisioning so don't waste time on BLUE or PURPLE recipes until you reach Level 50.
Also I didn't get any more IP from BLUE recipes of the same level. It appears only the base level counts for IP. And of course you only need points in Recipe Improvement to level, none are needed in Quality until you need to make Blue and Purple recipes for use or sale.
Finding Level 15 recipes will probably be your hardest challenge at this time in the game. I have been able to purchase all other levels of recipes easily.
And also with the
Multicraft Addon that has a quantity slider it will only take 4 mouse clicks with the right recipes.
KEY:
Recipe Level(L)/Recipe Quality-Recipe Improvement/Inspiration Points (IP) per Food or Drink/Number to Make
There is some overage in the Number to Make data just due to rounding
Add one skill point in Recipe
Improvement after each 10 skill levels gained.
PROVISIONING.....L2>L20..........427,785 IP Total
L1 Recipe..........1-1..........600 IP..........713
L5 Recipe..........1-1............3K IP..........143
L10 Recipe........1-1............6K IP............72
L15 Recipe........1-1............9K IP............48
PROVISIONING.....L21>L30.........575270 IP Total (Level 28 for Hireling Level 1)
L20 Recipe........1-2...........12K IP...........48
L25 Recipe........1-2...........15K IP...........39
PROVISIONING.....L31>L40..........959,080 IP Total (Level 38 for Hireling Level 2)
L30 Recipe........1-3...........18K IP...........54
L35 Recipe........1-3...........21K IP...........46
PROVISIONING.....L41>L48.........1,293,680 IP Total (Level 48 for Hireling Level 3)
L40 Recipe........1-4............24K IP...........54
L45 Recipe........1-4............27K IP...........48
PROVISIONING......L49>L50...........412,080 IP Total
L45 Recipe........1-4............27K IP...........16
Total IP required for Level 50 is 3,667,895 points.
Hope any of this helps. Please comment if you find different results and I will update as needed and especially after any provisioning changes by ZOS.