ESO Q4 Quandary

Mablung · June 2014

Another game that could be huge is Evolve. 4 players go out and hunt a huge monster which is played by a player. Looks and sounds great.

Ser Lobo · June 2014

Mablung wrote: »

Another game that could be huge is Evolve. 4 players go out and hunt a huge monster which is played by a player. Looks and sounds great.

That one had everyone in my living room leaning forward and getting into it, a few of which don't even really enjoy games much.

Assassins Creed Unity has my full attention, as co-op is the best idea I could imaging adding to that franchise. Rainbow Six Siege looks decent, as a Vegas replacement. Tom Clancy's Division has really caught my eye (as I'm a prepper and the premise strikes me), but third person shooters aren't my stick.

But in truth, it'll probably be Halo again, as I don't get into a rush for most any games that aren't on my 'lore list', such as Elder Scrolls and Halo.

Mablung · June 2014

ruze84b14_ESO wrote: »

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Mablung wrote: »

Another game that could be huge is Evolve. 4 players go out and hunt a huge monster which is played by a player. Looks and sounds great.

That one had everyone in my living room leaning forward and getting into it, a few of which don't even really enjoy games much.

Assassins Creed Unity has my full attention, as co-op is the best idea I could imaging adding to that franchise. Rainbow Six Siege looks decent, as a Vegas replacement. Tom Clancy's Division has really caught my eye (as I'm a prepper and the premise strikes me), but third person shooters aren't my stick.

But in truth, it'll probably be Halo again, as I don't get into a rush for most any games that aren't on my 'lore list', such as Elder Scrolls and Halo.

Halo 5 will be a purchase in this household, or at least says my son. Evolve looks great and this type of game could be something that I consider a nail in the MMO coffin.

Fleymark · June 2014

ruze84b14_ESO wrote: »

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Mablung wrote: »

Dayel wrote: »

I think, in spite of all the chatter about easy and old etc., that the greatest challenge at least for a while to ESO will be WoW's new expansion. There is really nothing else in view on the MMO scene to eclipse ESO. Wolfenstein and Watchdog are flash in the pan type games, and except for Dragon Age and Assassin's Creed nothing else is particularly interesting that is known to be coming up this year.

Uninteresting to you maybe but Destiny and Shadows of Mordor will be huge.

Bungie burnt a lot of diehard fans out when we got the first gameplay footage and it was 'ooh, pretty lights'. Honestly, in my opinion, gameplay looked awful. Too much neon. Plus, they are becoming well known for not being able to create anything really new. Just like Halo did, Destiny seems to use many of the repetitive elements of Myth and Marathon (never played Oni).

Shadows of Mordor looks cool in the trailers. I've yet to see gameplay. That said, I just do not get a feeling like it's Lord of the Rings at all, except for the 'walking into Mordor' joke.

They need to bag Halo and go back to Myth.

Such amazing games. I still have multiplayer game films backed up on CD someplace. Was so into it I even learned how to wizzywig a website one weekend so we could form a clan...I think that was one of the requirements. Crazy stuff for, what, 97? 98?

Going to go YouTube Shadows of Mordor now.

Audigy · June 2014

Obscure wrote: »

Looking ahead at the release of the console version of ESO and the current state of the PC version it gives rise to the question: "Is ZOS making the right moves?"

Release too soon and you have a low quality game. Releae too late and you have an irrelevant title. Release on time (well, though already delayed mind you) and you face the most serious competition you could possibly ask for. IMO, console ESO, based on the current PC game state, could not be in a worse slot than Q4 2014. Sure it's a great time to capitalize on the disposable income frenzy of the commercialized American holiday season, but the competition has such a significantly louder buzz in the wake of E³, ZOS is likely to be drowned out and eclipsed by what I consider the industry giants: EA and Activision. You don't seriously think they won't heavily promote their games for the holiday season too, do you?

When it comes to console gaming few in history have had such massive instant success as Bungie and BioWare, and both are making huge splashes in lateQ3-earlyQ4 (Dragon Age: Inquisition and Destiny). The production quality these studios have had is without question superior to what ZOS has created in ESO, and for the first time Bungie is throwing in their contender for a game to the scope and scale of an MMO. Sure, BioWare already tried, and if any lesson should have been gleaned from that, it's that ZOS should not have attempted virtually the same thing (hugely successful single player IP with a large existing fanbase turned into a sub-based MMO). Coexisting in a market with a very buggy, sub based, "not drastically different than anything you've played before" game, is going to be extremely difficult moving forward. As dramatic as it sounds, we may very well be witnessing the last gasps of the subscription based classic MMO genre as a competitive product in the gaming industry.

At best, ESO is the right game at the wrong time; they missed the summer launch sweet spot they aimed for. TBH I personally am having a blast with it and likely will continue to play it for months to come. But when myself and others are face to face with Dragon Age: Inquisition, Assassin's Creed: Unity, Evolve, Shadow of Mordor, and of course the near direct competition in the Tripple A "social gaming" bracket, Destiny, justifying that sub fee is going to be virtually impossible. There simply aren't enough hours in a day for all that plus getting my money's worth out of a sub based anything (I occasionally question my Netflix sub). The market has become far too competitive for games like ESO to thrive or really even stay relevant.

A console launch will compound that up hill battle by diluting the fan base across multiple platforms, and divide developer focus three ways (PC, XBone, PS4). If just a handful of the current bugs make it into the console build, it'll take three times the work to get them fixed, not to mention dealing with the Sony and Microsoft content screeners with every patch. Then there's three times the testing for new content, three times the QA, three times the compiling, the list goes on and on and always in threes. An MMO on just one platform is an enormous project, but an MMO on three? Frankly that just sounds insane to me, how does a developer even make money with that massive seemingly bottomless pit for manhours?

So, given I'm only limited to my own opinion, I beg the question concerning this Q4 Quandary to the community. Is ZOS making the right moves with ESO? Yes? No? Why?

I heard that assumption a few times that "summer = sales", but based on my own experience in the business this doesn't hold any ground.

You have the fewest active subs always in summer, the fewest box sales because people spend their time outside on the beaches, the garden or on holiday in general.

Someone must be a really tough nerd to grab his or her PC while going to the beach with friends

Winter sales and spring are what matters in my opinion, most kids ask their parents for a new PC or a game to Xmas and usually not many questions will be asked then, while in summer the money is a lot tighter due holidays.

Also to note is, that besides a few countries most students will have exams in summer, teens finish school or start looking for their first job.

fromtesonlineb16_ESO · June 2014

malikwalker_ESO wrote: »

Touching on the multiple platforms point, it can be done. And done well. But you hit the nail right on the head, everything ZOS does once the console versions hit will have to be done in three's in addition to other steps added by MS and Sony.

Final Fantasy XI has pulled it off for over a decade, but they have had one thing that ZOS does not. All players are on the same servers, regardless of platform. Without that variable, ZOS is going to really have to step up their game. And i mean to a completely other level.

I truly hope they are doing huge amounts of prep work behind the scenes.

And a lot more recently FFXIV V2 is also multi-platform and working very well. Of course it helped that FFXIV V"'s launch was hugely successful and once the 'free time' period was over numbers held at a very high level in comparison to most MMO launches in the last decade or so, and actually rose steadily even before the PS4 launch, since which the game has grown hugely.

SE's gamble of releasing the PC version several months ahead of the PS4 version paid off, the gamer was in a very healthy state when the console version arrived.

Right now it's very far from certain from where I sit the same will be able to be said for ESO.

In addition, ZOS have made a huge rod for their own backs that'll could kill the idea at birth.

First, they decided to separate console players from others, thereby fragmenting the playerbase in a way counter to the mega-server concept. That in itself was devisive because it guaranteed friends who don't use the same platform wouldn't be able to play together, ever, and there are a good number of players who came to this game as part of a larger cross-game community.

Second of course, the fatal blow IMO, was ZOS had to delay by 6 months. SIX MONTHS!

Their carrot to console players was "buy the PC version now and pay some more to transfer to the console server". An entirely two-edged sword because while it allowed console players who can play on a PC right away, many can't, but worse, a LOT worse, those that do will transfer over and immediately destroy the economy of the 'virgin' console mega-server for those who couldn't or wouldn't play on a PC.

That last point will be a very serious problem which ZOS either failed to see or chose to ignore, either way it'll come back to bite them hard.

Whether ESO is still running in anything like it's current form by Q4 is IMO still open to question.

Guppet · June 2014

ruze84b14_ESO wrote: »

I feel that the significant developer presence in constant updates and patches is tied as well to console development, striving to achieve a more rounded product on the next 'release date.'

ESO is special in the gaming world, as it has two launch dates. First launch, which us early adopters experienced, was done early, and hard. They got our money. They payed off their debts. They launched right in front of another MMO release, but otherwise stayed off the radar on most gaming news sights for both good and bad. "Graphics are awesome, grouping sucks." That's the general gist.

But second launch, with the release of the console versions, will be a unique saving grace for the game itself, hauling countless players starved for games on their consoles and looking for something new, into ESO.

This date will probably be a huge boon for the PC crowd as well, as several thousand if not millions of new gamers enter the ZOS fold and join into ESO (all at $60 a pop and $15 for the first month, because no matter how much I like them, they still make games for money like everyone else).

These new gamers will experience a far different environment than we did, with bugs cleared, server stability achieved, and even expansive new content. Call what we are experiencing now an ongoing beta (what MMO isn't still in development?) if you will, but in the end this next release date will have a far different product.

And with it, old gamers return. The players who already rushed through all the content in the first month because they have no lives? The players who left for Wildstar because they liked WoW alot? The groups of players who left off of boredom, or for work, or because it just didn't feel right? So many will be reupping for another $15.

With the appropriate 'launch day expansion' built up (possibly with player housing and arenas, as well as a new PvE map), a whole years worth of active development (funded by early adopters and Bethesda's deep pockets), and enough advertising applied, it could launch ESO into a successful franchise in much the same way as WoW.

Sounds cynical? It's coming from the mouth of a fan, though a pragmatic one. I'll be here that first year, paying my subscription. Enjoying the game, as I do now. Enjoying each new patch every week, and each new bit of content every six weeks. I knew what I was getting into before I joined. Only someone who was naive of the video game world, or a complete fool (as I'm not terribly bright at all) would have jumped into this expecting otherwise.

These are pretty much my thoughts too. When they first announced the delay, my thought was they need more time to completely re-do VR content. Once they do that though, the market is theirs to take control of.

Mablung · June 2014

Guppet wrote: »

show previous quotes

ruze84b14_ESO wrote: »

I feel that the significant developer presence in constant updates and patches is tied as well to console development, striving to achieve a more rounded product on the next 'release date.'

ESO is special in the gaming world, as it has two launch dates. First launch, which us early adopters experienced, was done early, and hard. They got our money. They payed off their debts. They launched right in front of another MMO release, but otherwise stayed off the radar on most gaming news sights for both good and bad. "Graphics are awesome, grouping sucks." That's the general gist.

But second launch, with the release of the console versions, will be a unique saving grace for the game itself, hauling countless players starved for games on their consoles and looking for something new, into ESO.

This date will probably be a huge boon for the PC crowd as well, as several thousand if not millions of new gamers enter the ZOS fold and join into ESO (all at $60 a pop and $15 for the first month, because no matter how much I like them, they still make games for money like everyone else).

These new gamers will experience a far different environment than we did, with bugs cleared, server stability achieved, and even expansive new content. Call what we are experiencing now an ongoing beta (what MMO isn't still in development?) if you will, but in the end this next release date will have a far different product.

And with it, old gamers return. The players who already rushed through all the content in the first month because they have no lives? The players who left for Wildstar because they liked WoW alot? The groups of players who left off of boredom, or for work, or because it just didn't feel right? So many will be reupping for another $15.

With the appropriate 'launch day expansion' built up (possibly with player housing and arenas, as well as a new PvE map), a whole years worth of active development (funded by early adopters and Bethesda's deep pockets), and enough advertising applied, it could launch ESO into a successful franchise in much the same way as WoW.

Sounds cynical? It's coming from the mouth of a fan, though a pragmatic one. I'll be here that first year, paying my subscription. Enjoying the game, as I do now. Enjoying each new patch every week, and each new bit of content every six weeks. I knew what I was getting into before I joined. Only someone who was naive of the video game world, or a complete fool (as I'm not terribly bright at all) would have jumped into this expecting otherwise.

These are pretty much my thoughts too. When they first announced the delay, my thought was they need more time to completely re-do agar content. Once they do that though, the market is theirs to take control of.

I wish that I had your positive outlook.

Obscure · June 2014

Audigy wrote: »

I heard that assumption a few times that "summer = sales", but based on my own experience in the business this doesn't hold any ground.

You have the fewest active subs always in summer, the fewest box sales because people spend their time outside on the beaches, the garden or on holiday in general.

Someone must be a really tough nerd to grab his or her PC while going to the beach with friends

Winter sales and spring are what matters in my opinion, most kids ask their parents for a new PC or a game to Xmas and usually not many questions will be asked then, while in summer the money is a lot tighter due holidays.

Also to note is, that besides a few countries most students will have exams in summer, teens finish school or start looking for their first job.

Don't get me wrong, summer has historically rarely done any where near the sales figures of a winter launched game. But this isn't going to be a typical launch, the game will have already been out for most of the year, albeit on a different platform. Being in the business yourself you could appreciate the scenario ZOS is in with ESO specifically. Think of the marketing they have need to do all over again since it's so far removed from the campaign they ran for the PC version. Look who they have to market against, what kind of bad buzz they have to work against. Since even before ESO launched, good reviews were few and remain 1 in 10 being generous; the internet is an incredibly efficient hate machine.

It's hard to hype something when there's really nothing left to hype about, and the competition is driving their hype train full speed. The cat is out of the bag, and the market knows exactly what ZOS has in store for them in ESO. Are they going to choose a known or an unknown? The game will be a quarter shy of a year old at console launch, typically high time for mark down and ramp up for an expansion. We all know ESO is delightfully mediocre, it's something I like about it that most others do not see as a good thing. Objectively I can agree it's not a good thing to push old school when the market is clamoring for next gen.

Without being willing to give on certain elements of content to get the console version through the ESRB with with a T rating, they are handicapping their own ability to go to market targeting their audience. Not to mention they're trying to sell console gamers something foreign to them, a subscription fee. It's hard to tell a console gamer they have to pay to play ESO specifically without them getting the feeling your just going to take all their time investment and hold it ransom unless they pay up in 30 days. It all adds up to ESO being a niche game for a niche gamer, not a Triple A holiday season "must have".

My point isn't really relevant to summer, it's relevant to who ZOS is marketing against, and what they are going to market with.

steveb16_ESO46 · June 2014

Dayel wrote: »

I think, in spite of all the chatter about easy and old etc., that the greatest challenge at least for a while to ESO will be WoW's new expansion. There is really nothing else in view on the MMO scene to eclipse ESO.

ArcheAge will be out and as it's a modified conversion of a stable game it's going to hit the ground running. It's a seriously good game and will take a big bite out of the fantasy MMO market I suspect.