Tot picks its winners

Amottica

twistedodean14 wrote: »

Amottica wrote: »

Anecdotal information does not prove anything. While we do not have the data from behind the scenes we can keep accurate information from every match and see what is going on across 100 to 1000 matches. That helps with making something more than an opinion.

Hence me stating that I have no proof outside of the patterns I noticed. Not mention people who have experienced the same thing I do. How and when they manifest. The only way to prove something like this without a doubt is literally get access the code. and that will never happen. Most we can do is raise awareness until they balance then game.

Oh yes, I caught the statement that there was no proof and clearly stated that without proof the information is merely anecdotal at best. Anecdotal information provides no validity to a conclusion.

MidniteOwl1913

twistedodean14 wrote: »

What's with people picking rajin, Hlaalu and almalexia? Trying these long drawn out games?

well they do represent a quarter of the decks available and you have to pick 2...

NIEVESICE

spartaxoxo wrote: »

The game isn't rigged. The same players end up in the leaderboard consistently. There is an element of RNG, because it's a card game. But skill is also a factor.

Why don't you try posting a video of your gameplay? I'm sure someone would be happy to send you some tips.

the game may not be rigged but it is certainly the system that decides who wins or not, I always end up in the middle of the table and after that the matches in the last few days make me lose practically all of them, the same thing always happens every months,,how do you explain it? If I didn't know how to play I wouldn't get to the top 50!

spartaxoxo

NIEVESICE wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

The game isn't rigged. The same players end up in the leaderboard consistently. There is an element of RNG, because it's a card game. But skill is also a factor.

Why don't you try posting a video of your gameplay? I'm sure someone would be happy to send you some tips.

the game may not be rigged but it is certainly the system that decides who wins or not, I always end up in the middle of the table and after that the matches in the last few days make me lose practically all of them, the same thing always happens every months,,how do you explain it? If I didn't know how to play I wouldn't get to the top 50!

I don't know your play well enough (or at all) to comment on why you may be personally having issues. So don't read the following as commentary on your play. It's not, just an attempt at answering your question about why some people feel the game is more RNG than others.

But I do know there are players with very high winrates.

I also know there are some decks that are likely to be overpowered for how simple they are, which are more RNG dependant than some of the slower decks. Obviously I don't have stats to know this one for sure, but I have noticed power rushing/crow srats being a common theme in the RNG complaints. And those strats are more RNG than others.

I also know a lot of skilled players have exited the competitive pool due to the low quality in competitive matchmaking.

I also know that some people experience tilt and don't recognize when comeback strategies are available to them.

I also know some people do things that weigh RNG against them without realizing it e.g buying up all the powerful cards, cluttering their deck. I had this issue myself. This was my biggest issue back when I thought the game was a bit more RNG than it is. That isn't to say RNG doesn't play a factor. It's a card game, ofc it does.

I also know some people don't know how to best use the various deck control cards which can help lower the dependence on RNG.

Etc etc.

There's so many reasons people may be experiencing issues. But there are others who have winrates of like 90% and are always at the very top of the leaderboards.

twistedodean14

spartaxoxo wrote: »

NIEVESICE wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

The game isn't rigged. The same players end up in the leaderboard consistently. There is an element of RNG, because it's a card game. But skill is also a factor.

Why don't you try posting a video of your gameplay? I'm sure someone would be happy to send you some tips.

the game may not be rigged but it is certainly the system that decides who wins or not, I always end up in the middle of the table and after that the matches in the last few days make me lose practically all of them, the same thing always happens every months,,how do you explain it? If I didn't know how to play I wouldn't get to the top 50!

I don't know your play well enough (or at all) to comment on why you may be personally having issues. So don't read the following as commentary on your play. It's not, just an attempt at answering your question about why some people feel the game is more RNG than others.

But I do know there are players with very high winrates.

I also know there are some decks that are likely to be overpowered for how simple they are, which are more RNG dependant than some of the slower decks. Obviously I don't have stats to know this one for sure, but I have noticed power rushing/crow srats being a common theme in the RNG complaints. And those strats are more RNG than others.

I also know a lot of skilled players have exited the competitive pool due to the low quality in competitive matchmaking.

I also know that some people experience tilt and don't recognize when comeback strategies are available to them.

I also know some people do things that weigh RNG against them without realizing it e.g buying up all the powerful cards, cluttering their deck. I had this issue myself. This was my biggest issue back when I thought the game was a bit more RNG than it is. That isn't to say RNG doesn't play a factor. It's a card game, ofc it does.

I also know some people don't know how to best use the various deck control cards which can help lower the dependence on RNG.

Etc etc.

There's so many reasons people may be experiencing issues. But there are others who have winrates of like 90% and are always at the very top of the leaderboards.

Obviously there will be players with very high win rates if the selects for them, to consistently get good cards and combos via the deck shuffle and the tavern, along with decent understanding of ToT. ToT isn't hard to play. There isn't a crazy amount of strategy to the game either. it's not about what people feel. It's literally what they experience. if they are experiencing a particular pattern consistently they would have to be brain dead to not notice it. You keep bringing these obvious strategies, when its was made clear there is no lack of strategy, skill or understanding of the game. I don't need deck manage strategies, or tavern management strategies or any of that stuff. if you know basic ToT and you get great cards via the shuffle or tavern. You cannot lose. So, the win rates have absolutely nothing to do with rng. Because strategy requires cars. if you cant get cards, you can't apply any strategy not matter how good you are. This thing about win rates have absolutely nothing to do with the topic. If you're lucky enough to not experience bad rng ever or rarely. Congratulations. However, don't come here gaslighting folks with common sense ToT stuff. I literal get DM'd by players on here and on platforms by players who have bad rng. i don't gaslight them. I give them tips on how to navigated bad rng.

twistedodean14

Amottica wrote: »

twistedodean14 wrote: »

Amottica wrote: »

Anecdotal information does not prove anything. While we do not have the data from behind the scenes we can keep accurate information from every match and see what is going on across 100 to 1000 matches. That helps with making something more than an opinion.

Hence me stating that I have no proof outside of the patterns I noticed. Not mention people who have experienced the same thing I do. How and when they manifest. The only way to prove something like this without a doubt is literally get access the code. and that will never happen. Most we can do is raise awareness until they balance then game.

Oh yes, I caught the statement that there was no proof and clearly stated that without proof the information is merely anecdotal at best. Anecdotal information provides no validity to a conclusion.

Clearly you didn't. Evidenced by your prior post. Also, even if you did catch that statement you clearly didn't understand it. it clearly stated that it's impossible to get absolute proof. Not no proof. Absolute proof being getting access to the code or ZoS admitting that the system selects its winners. It's folks who run around saying shadow nerfs aren't a thing... if multiple players are experiencing the same phenomena. That lends validity to the claims being made. if you don't want accept the evidence presented thats fine, but it doesn't mean the evidence is not evidence.

twistedodean14

MidniteOwl1913 wrote: »

twistedodean14 wrote: »

What's with people picking rajin, Hlaalu and almalexia? Trying these long drawn out games?

well they do represent a quarter of the decks available and you have to pick 2...

you literally don't have to pick any of them...

NIEVESICE

twistedodean14 wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

NIEVESICE wrote: »

spartaxoxo wrote: »

The game isn't rigged. The same players end up in the leaderboard consistently. There is an element of RNG, because it's a card game. But skill is also a factor.

Why don't you try posting a video of your gameplay? I'm sure someone would be happy to send you some tips.

the game may not be rigged but it is certainly the system that decides who wins or not, I always end up in the middle of the table and after that the matches in the last few days make me lose practically all of them, the same thing always happens every months,,how do you explain it? If I didn't know how to play I wouldn't get to the top 50!

I don't know your play well enough (or at all) to comment on why you may be personally having issues. So don't read the following as commentary on your play. It's not, just an attempt at answering your question about why some people feel the game is more RNG than others.

But I do know there are players with very high winrates.

I also know there are some decks that are likely to be overpowered for how simple they are, which are more RNG dependant than some of the slower decks. Obviously I don't have stats to know this one for sure, but I have noticed power rushing/crow srats being a common theme in the RNG complaints. And those strats are more RNG than others.

I also know a lot of skilled players have exited the competitive pool due to the low quality in competitive matchmaking.

I also know that some people experience tilt and don't recognize when comeback strategies are available to them.

I also know some people do things that weigh RNG against them without realizing it e.g buying up all the powerful cards, cluttering their deck. I had this issue myself. This was my biggest issue back when I thought the game was a bit more RNG than it is. That isn't to say RNG doesn't play a factor. It's a card game, ofc it does.

I also know some people don't know how to best use the various deck control cards which can help lower the dependence on RNG.

Etc etc.

There's so many reasons people may be experiencing issues. But there are others who have winrates of like 90% and are always at the very top of the leaderboards.

Obviously there will be players with very high win rates if the selects for them, to consistently get good cards and combos via the deck shuffle and the tavern, along with decent understanding of ToT. ToT isn't hard to play. There isn't a crazy amount of strategy to the game either. it's not about what people feel. It's literally what they experience. if they are experiencing a particular pattern consistently they would have to be brain dead to not notice it. You keep bringing these obvious strategies, when its was made clear there is no lack of strategy, skill or understanding of the game. I don't need deck manage strategies, or tavern management strategies or any of that stuff. if you know basic ToT and you get great cards via the shuffle or tavern. You cannot lose. So, the win rates have absolutely nothing to do with rng. Because strategy requires cars. if you cant get cards, you can't apply any strategy not matter how good you are. This thing about win rates have absolutely nothing to do with the topic. If you're lucky enough to not experience bad rng ever or rarely. Congratulations. However, don't come here gaslighting folks with common sense ToT stuff. I literal get DM'd by players on here and on platforms by players who have bad rng. i don't gaslight them. I give them tips on how to navigated bad rng.

the problem is that we can write here everything we believe but we will never receive a response from Zos, like you I believe that it doesn't matter how good you are or how strategic you are in this game but it's just how the cards come out but I am convinced that there are subsidized players on the release of these!

SeaGtGruff

Personally, I don't believe the game decides who's going to win ahead of time and manipulates the deck accordingly; it's just RNG, and any appearance of a predetermined outcome is nothing more than that-- appearance. But players are going to blame their losses on the game cheating no matter what anyone tells them to the contrary. It's the same in PvP and ToT-- if you win, it's because you're so awesome; but if you lose, it's because the other player (or the game) was cheating.

NIEVESICE

SeaGtGruff wrote: »

Personally, I don't believe the game decides who's going to win ahead of time and manipulates the deck accordingly; it's just RNG, and any appearance of a predetermined outcome is nothing more than that-- appearance. But players are going to blame their losses on the game cheating no matter what anyone tells them to the contrary. It's the same in PvP and ToT-- if you win, it's because you're so awesome; but if you lose, it's because the other player (or the game) was cheating.

you can't compare ToT to PvP, in the second you have to know the skill class well and you have to be unquestionably good at ToT being good isn't enough you can know the patrons perfectly and you can have all the strategies but if you don't need the right cards... you understand from the first hands how the match will go and yes there are players who enjoy this advantage

tonyaccount

NIEVESICE wrote: »

you can't compare ToT to PvP, in the second you have to know the skill class well and you have to be unquestionably good at ToT being good isn't enough you can know the patrons perfectly and you can have all the strategies but if you don't need the right cards... you understand from the first hands how the match will go and yes there are players who enjoy this advantage

[Snip]

In games with a luck factor in them, you need a reasonable sample size to draw conclusions from. People like [Snip] cherrypick the worst 10% of the games you get and base all their conclusions on those while comfortably forgetting the rest 90%. [Snip]

[Snip]

You are right that even if you play perfectly you will lose some games where the opponent just gets all the good cards. It happens to everyone. Everyone. That includes not only you, but all your opponents. Everyone gets games where the game gives them godawful draws, just like everyone gets games where they get godly draws. These games are the outliers, and where your win rate and leaderboard placement are determined are in the much more common games where neither player gets fed a free win by the deck.

Your goal is to get as many wins in the games that offer you at least some chance of winning. Also, when you become good enough you can actually win some of the "unwinnable" games assuming your opponent makes some mistakes which is almost always the case. The irony is that often your opponent who got super lucky and was being handed a free win, who made plenty of mistakes then goes on to call you a lucker when you finally caught just enough cards at the end to steal the game you had virtually zero chance of winning.

I literally finished 1st in every single EU leaderboard of 2023. I also played one season of NA and finished 1st by a comfortable margin. That's 13 seasons and 13 titles. A whole year of nothing but first places. Do you want to give me an explanation how this is possible in a game that's overwhelmingly decided by luck? I know many people will view this as brag and that's up to you but if we can just focus on the numbers side, mathematically speaking these results would be almost impossible in a game decided by luck.

There are also plenty of other players who consistently finish high on the leaderboard season after season, and on the flipside there are regular faces who play a lot every single month but somehow struggle to even make it to top-100, who always play the same bad strategies that never worked for them and often proceed to call you a lucker or cheater after you beat them.

Do you people who believe the game is based on luck, want to explain how can this be? Do some players have a ZOS blessed account or a cheat tool that shows them what cards will come next? Do other accounts have a "feeder" status where the game gives them bad cards so others can wipe the floor with them?

[Edited for baiting/bashing]

VoidCommander

It is my humble opinion that the vast majority of Tales of Tribute matches can be decided within the first 3-4 rounds. People will select their patrons based on if they go first or not and whether those patron decks have powerful 6 cost cards versus 5 cost cards. If you are going first for example, you will likely want to have a Patron that has a power generating starter card to have a 50% chance of preventing your opponent from gaining 6 gold and buying a very strong agent.

Dagoth_Rac

tonyaccount wrote: »

A whole year of nothing but first places. Do you want to give me an explanation how this is possible in a game that's overwhelmingly decided by luck?

Their answer is going to be that the game is pulling strings behind the scenes for "tonyaccount". They seem to think it is not game-by-game luck but account-by-account luck. That the RNG has decided in some way that "tonyaccount" will always get the best cards and they will always get the worst cards. Like there is some kind of permanent seed to the RNG and they are stuck with a bad seed and tonyaccount has an awesome seed.

I think this is tinfoil hat wackiness when it comes to TOT. But, that seems to be what they mean by "TOT picks its winners." And how they can believe that some players can win consistently despite the game being about luck.

The solution of course is to let you play games on their account! Do you continue winning 90% of the time and take their account to the top of the leaderboard? Or do you start losing all the time and drop to the bottom of the rankings?

Pixiepumpkin

Except its not tinfoil wackiness. I know as a 100% fact that accounts can be debuffed in a different extremely popular MMORPG. This is done to essentially ruin gameplay for loud dissenting voices so that the players go away. It's insanely easy to spot this in the design philosophy.

Personofsecrets

Pixiepumpkin wrote: »

Except its not tinfoil wackiness. I know as a 100% fact that accounts can be debuffed in a different extremely popular MMORPG. This is done to essentially ruin gameplay for loud dissenting voices so that the players go away. It's insanely easy to spot this in the design philosophy.

You have our attention. Spill the tea.

sayswhoto

Bumping this thread back to the top. I know this whole topic might sound a little bit ridiculous, but personal experience still has some merit. It at least should warrant further investigation.

I've had suspicious losing streaks as well (and will admit sometimes it's my fault). However, I still don't have a good feeling on the how these games played out.

Running some basic numbers:

• I made it to the top 10% last season so let's approximate my win rate to be at least 60%. That means on average I should have a 40% chance of losing.
• Today, I lost about 6 games in a row in Voidsteel League, this isn't even ranked yet.
• Basic probability of this occurring is 0.4^6. This is 0.4% chance of occurring, which is rather small to keep on experiencing these drastic losing streaks.
• With that said, there are definitely qualitative factors that may invalidate my assumptions on calculating probabilities. As I mentioned earlier, I believe this still worthy of some sort of investigation (if there would ever be one).

Here is a screenshot of proof of my ranking from last season:


Here is a YouTube video on how I play in case anyone wants to verify my skill level. Keep in mind this is a one-sided game. I was using this video to critique ToT in another thread. And no, I'm not trying to promote a YouTube channel. There is only one video on this channel and it was made to prove another point.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJoyk3f9mqw&t=6s

SeaGtGruff

NIEVESICE wrote: »

SeaGtGruff wrote: »

Personally, I don't believe the game decides who's going to win ahead of time and manipulates the deck accordingly; it's just RNG, and any appearance of a predetermined outcome is nothing more than that-- appearance. But players are going to blame their losses on the game cheating no matter what anyone tells them to the contrary. It's the same in PvP and ToT-- if you win, it's because you're so awesome; but if you lose, it's because the other player (or the game) was cheating.

you can't compare ToT to PvP, in the second you have to know the skill class well and you have to be unquestionably good at ToT being good isn't enough you can know the patrons perfectly and you can have all the strategies but if you don't need the right cards... you understand from the first hands how the match will go and yes there are players who enjoy this advantage

I regularly have matches that don't end up the way the first few hands make it seem like it will end, in both directions.

I've had matches where it looked like I was starting out really well and the NPC was starting out poorly, but several hands later the NPC bought some cards and got some combos which turned the tables on me, and I ended up losing despite trying my best to regain an advantage.

I've had matches where it looked like the NPC was going to wipe the floor with me, but then I managed to turn things around and won the match. Sometimes it was because the NPC started making stupid moves that squandered its early lead, such as wasting its power to call on a patron (Druid?) to remove cards from the Tavern, or spending its power to knock out one or more of my agents when there was little advantage to doing so. But other times it was the luck of the draw, where I was able to buy some good cards later in the game and the NPC didn't have anything good to buy.

Don't give up early on a match based on the first few turns, because if you do then you might be cheating yourself.

Northwold

Clearly RNG is a serious problem with ToT, particularly with a handful of decks, the most obvious being crow and druid. Depending on which cards turn up for which player at the start of the game then, with a skilled player, they may have set up an undefeatable win in four turns.

I am on an epic losing streak at the moment in the face of draws where I get a lovely selection of 8 or 9 cost starting cards plus pointless trash, while the other player gets overpowered 2s, 3s, 4s that they clean out on every turn and which then spawn off each other in combos.

Now, there are broadly three options to deal with this. Ignore the problem (ideally not), do something to the nature of the card draw to separate lower value and higher value cards (since this would likely involve running two distinct draw piles it seems unlikely), or take a look at the most problematic decks and, most likely, do a serious nerf on the lower cost cards.

BUT, when you're not faced this particular example of an RNG horror, there ARE counter strategies. But I've found the most important counter is to know precisely which decks you need to choose at patron selection stage to counter decks the other player has chosen. That takes a fairly good understanding of what each of the decks in play do, however (Rahjin, for example, far from being a spammer's deck, is super useful for countering out of control agent combo decks).

twistedodean14

sayswhoto wrote: »

Bumping this thread back to the top. I know this whole topic might sound a little bit ridiculous, but personal experience still has some merit. It at least should warrant further investigation.

I've had suspicious losing streaks as well (and will admit sometimes it's my fault). However, I still don't have a good feeling on the how these games played out.

Running some basic numbers:

• I made it to the top 10% last season so let's approximate my win rate to be at least 60%. That means on average I should have a 40% chance of losing.
• Today, I lost about 6 games in a row in Voidsteel League, this isn't even ranked yet.
• Basic probability of this occurring is 0.4^6. This is 0.4% chance of occurring, which is rather small to keep on experiencing these drastic losing streaks.
• With that said, there are definitely qualitative factors that may invalidate my assumptions on calculating probabilities. As I mentioned earlier, I believe this still worthy of some sort of investigation (if there would ever be one).

Here is a screenshot of proof of my ranking from last season:


Here is a YouTube video on how I play in case anyone wants to verify my skill level. Keep in mind this is a one-sided game. I was using this video to critique ToT in another thread. And no, I'm not trying to promote a YouTube channel. There is only one video on this channel and it was made to prove another point.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJoyk3f9mqw&t=6s

It's funny because I get the impression that the player who don't or rarely experience bad rng thinks the its the same for everyone else. It's clearly not the case. I don't know if for whatever they feel like ToT giving better rng to some players invalidates their wins or leader board status. if you're good at the game you're good at the game. Good or bad rng wont change that. @Personofsecrets is a really good player. I matched up against this person a few times and some matches I've won some I lost. But judging from this person's playstyle, it's easy to they are a good player.

As a guild mate calls it " forced losing streaks" are a thing, and they can be very frustrating.