Tracking Daily Writ Reward Drop Rates & Refining Rates

tmbrinks

AONomad wrote: »

Hey again! Just noticed profit per character per month says 569k now on your spreadsheet-- what made that go up from 400k in your original post? I think even last time we chatted a few weeks ago it was still around 380-420k if memory serves. Did you update values for something?

This is good news haha.

1. The cost of the base mats has come down some since we talked
2. I had forgotten to update it from 18 characters doing jewelry crafting to 36 once my alt account gained access to Summerset and JC.
3. I do check and update the MM prices of the relevant materials that are used, I do that about once a month, when I remember

EDIT: never mind... I had a mistake in that calculation... I was double counting jewelry crafting when I changed what I did in #2, but I had already accounted for that previously...

AONomad

Alright!

I popped by because I was calculating some gold/crown/gem/time exchange rates, here's what I came up with in case you're curious:

https://puu.sh/DWtso/027bc84841.png

So basically, for anyone making $15 per hour, it's roughly 3x more efficient to buy 21k crown packs on sale than to farm gold. Farming gold is roughly equivalent to a $5/h wage, going by 570k * 15 characters / (30 hours of daily writs + 12 hours of monthly surveying).

tmbrinks

AONomad wrote: »

Alright!

I popped by because I was calculating some gold/crown/gem/time exchange rates, here's what I came up with in case you're curious:

https://puu.sh/DWtso/027bc84841.png

So basically, for anyone making $15 per hour, it's roughly 3x more efficient to buy 21k crown packs on sale than to farm gold. Farming gold is roughly equivalent to a $5/h wage, going by 570k * 15 characters / (30 hours of daily writs + 12 hours of monthly surveying).

It probably is more efficient to just buy the crowns and then sell them. I don't really have that disposable income in my real life, but I do have disposable time.

I can get all 36 character's writs done a day on my account in under 90 minutes a day. So, I might be a little more efficient than $5/hour

At least I know it wouldn't be feasible to use writs alone to try and make money farming gold in the game

wishlist14

You have 27 characters with maxed out character slots? You bought 9 character slots? Omg

I dont really think you are the norm. I think you are an exception with all due respect.

Im curious to know how many ppl even have the time yo do that. No offence intended btw....How do you manage it?

redlink1979

tmbrinks wrote: »

I can get all 36 character's writs done a day on my account in under 90 minutes a day

Respect!

AONomad

Lol I should probably disable more addons... I do writs really quickly (rapid maneuvers, alchemy & provisioning pre-crafted in bank, and I jump over the dock bridge to get to the crafting area in Vivec), but I spend almost 4 minutes in loading screens between characters.

and lol @wishlist14, he never claimed to be the norm. The whole point of his research was that no one else has documented writ income with this level of detail.

wishlist14

AONomad wrote: »

Lol I should probably disable more addons... I do writs really quickly (rapid maneuvers, alchemy & provisioning pre-crafted in bank, and I jump over the dock bridge to get to the crafting area in Vivec), but I spend almost 4 minutes in loading screens between characters.

and lol @wishlist14, he never claimed to be the norm. The whole point of his research was that no one else has documented writ income with this level of detail.

Yes I was just expressing surprise lol 😆😆😆

tmbrinks

wishlist14 wrote: »

You have 27 characters with maxed out character slots? You bought 9 character slots? Omg

I dont really think you are the norm. I think you are an exception with all due respect.

Im curious to know how many ppl even have the time yo do that. No offence intended btw....How do you manage it?

It actually takes 2 accounts to have 36 characters, so I've bought 19 additional character slots

9 on the main account that has Elsweyr, and 10 on the alt account that does not have Elsweyr (so I didn't get the "free" one with the expansion)

I do have ESO+ on both accounts. I buy the 1 year subscription, so it's like $340 a year I spend on the game, less than a $1 a day ($140 for the sub x 2 + $60 expansion)

I use the crowns from those subs for the extra character slots, or, I've purchased then with gold from TCE.

I certainly know I'm not the norm when it comes to doing the daily writs, and as @AONomad said, I won't pretend I am. Also, because I'm not the norm, and have access to some robust data, due to sheer volume, I like to share that with others who may benefit from it.

AONomad wrote: »

Lol I should probably disable more addons... I do writs really quickly (rapid maneuvers, alchemy & provisioning pre-crafted in bank, and I jump over the dock bridge to get to the crafting area in Vivec), but I spend almost 4 minutes in loading screens between characters.

and lol wishlist14, he never claimed to be the norm. The whole point of his research was that no one else has documented writ income with this level of detail.

I do the same thing with mine, except I do them in Alinor. I think Alinor is quicker IF you have the banker assistant, otherwise Vivec is probably fastest, since the bank is there. I also have an add-on called Slash Assistant where I only have to type /b and it summons my banker, so I don't have to go through the menus.

I also multiscreen the two accounts, so that load screens are effectively meaningless to me. I have two instances of the game installed, and both running at the same time. So, when one is loading through the character screen and loading in, the other one is doing their writs. (ZoS has said this is fine, since I'm doing all the controls on both screens, there are no automated things happening while I'm off screen.) I get the occasional lag, so it's not as fast as just doing 1 at a time, but it's a huge time saver.

I have most of my add-ons still on, and my load screens average about 90 seconds per character from hitting log out, to when the next character is logged on. I have good equipment for my computer, but not necessarily the "best" there is, although I did go premium on the CPU, which seems to be most people's bottleneck with ESO.

AONomad

tmbrinks wrote: »

I do the same thing with mine, except I do them in Alinor. I think Alinor is quicker IF you have the banker assistant, otherwise Vivec is probably fastest, since the bank is there. I also have an add-on called Slash Assistant where I only have to type /b and it summons my banker, so I don't have to go through the menus.

I also multiscreen the two accounts, so that load screens are effectively meaningless to me. I have two instances of the game installed, and both running at the same time. So, when one is loading through the character screen and loading in, the other one is doing their writs. (ZoS has said this is fine, since I'm doing all the controls on both screens, there are no automated things happening while I'm off screen.) I get the occasional lag, so it's not as fast as just doing 1 at a time, but it's a huge time saver.

I have most of my add-ons still on, and my load screens average about 90 seconds per character from hitting log out, to when the next character is logged on. I have good equipment for my computer, but not necessarily the "best" there is, although I did go premium on the CPU, which seems to be most people's bottleneck with ESO.

I use a similar banker addon, I hotkeyed F10 to pull him up and it's so freakin' convenient. Also I'm sure you have it already, but in case anyone else is reading this, PersonalAssistant is good for automatically dumping surveys etc. into bank when you open it up!

Multiscreening sounds amazing, that's clutch. Do you have dual monitors or just alt-tab between them? And lol what kind of PC do you have that can handle two instances at a time? I do that sometimes when I have my trading account running at the same time as my main, but the lag is very noticeable. (I have Ryzen 5 1400 which is pretty low-end, 16 GBs of RAM, installed on an SSD).

tmbrinks

AONomad wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

I do the same thing with mine, except I do them in Alinor. I think Alinor is quicker IF you have the banker assistant, otherwise Vivec is probably fastest, since the bank is there. I also have an add-on called Slash Assistant where I only have to type /b and it summons my banker, so I don't have to go through the menus.

I also multiscreen the two accounts, so that load screens are effectively meaningless to me. I have two instances of the game installed, and both running at the same time. So, when one is loading through the character screen and loading in, the other one is doing their writs. (ZoS has said this is fine, since I'm doing all the controls on both screens, there are no automated things happening while I'm off screen.) I get the occasional lag, so it's not as fast as just doing 1 at a time, but it's a huge time saver.

I have most of my add-ons still on, and my load screens average about 90 seconds per character from hitting log out, to when the next character is logged on. I have good equipment for my computer, but not necessarily the "best" there is, although I did go premium on the CPU, which seems to be most people's bottleneck with ESO.

I use a similar banker addon, I hotkeyed F10 to pull him up and it's so freakin' convenient. Also I'm sure you have it already, but in case anyone else is reading this, PersonalAssistant is good for automatically dumping surveys etc. into bank when you open it up!

Multiscreening sounds amazing, that's clutch. Do you have dual monitors or just alt-tab between them? And lol what kind of PC do you have that can handle two instances at a time? I do that sometimes when I have my trading account running at the same time as my main, but the lag is very noticeable. (I have Ryzen 5 1400 which is pretty low-end, 16 GBs of RAM, installed on an SSD).

I have 3 monitors, so they're up on 2 of them.. usually have Discord open on the third.

I have a i7-8700k, OCd to 4.5 GHz, 16 GB DDR4 RAM, on an SSD as well. Debating if I want to update to a M.2. Although the 2nd instance is installed on a 4 TB 5400 RPM storage drive, so that's on the low end

I actually don't use any add-on to put stuff directly into my bank (have lost stuff with them before). I only use Dustman to mark junk (ornates/known recipes/etc)

AONomad

Oooh that sounds like a sick setup. But yeah you should upgrade that HDD lol.

Thanks again for humoring all my questions, appreciate it!

Shanehere

tmbrinks wrote: »

I do writs on 27 characters a day (most days), so I felt like I would have enough data to over ride any "noise" that was in the data from random RNG.

How long does it take you to do this? It takes me like 30 minutes to do daily writs, mount upgrades, and research on only 5 characters. 27!? I feel like that would take hours.

AONomad

Shanehere wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

I do writs on 27 characters a day (most days), so I felt like I would have enough data to over ride any "noise" that was in the data from random RNG.

How long does it take you to do this? It takes me like 30 minutes to do daily writs, mount upgrades, and research on only 5 characters. 27!? I feel like that would take hours.

He said less than 90 minutes for all of them, notably he runs two separate ESO instances so he can keep during writs while the other account is during load screens.

tmbrinks

Shanehere wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

I do writs on 27 characters a day (most days), so I felt like I would have enough data to over ride any "noise" that was in the data from random RNG.

How long does it take you to do this? It takes me like 30 minutes to do daily writs, mount upgrades, and research on only 5 characters. 27!? I feel like that would take hours.

AONomad wrote: »

Shanehere wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

I do writs on 27 characters a day (most days), so I felt like I would have enough data to over ride any "noise" that was in the data from random RNG.

How long does it take you to do this? It takes me like 30 minutes to do daily writs, mount upgrades, and research on only 5 characters. 27!? I feel like that would take hours.

He said less than 90 minutes for all of them, notably he runs two separate ESO instances so he can keep during writs while the other account is during load screens.

What AONomad said... and I'm up to 36 a day now since Elsweyr has released and the maximum has been raised to 18 per account. I did them today in 95 minutes.. and that includes the deconning of intricates/glyphs, researching of traits on the last 10 characters, feeding horses on the 10 I have that are not at max training yet.

wishlist14

I came back to reread post and I am very impressed at your findings and I too find this information most useful. I do have 9 level 50s and a few do writs and i have questioned in the past wether it's worth doing them on all my charactrrs or on just a couple. I see the gold profit is worthwhile imo. It's more about time management with me. I do dailies and riding lessons on my alts and daily trial if i can fit it in time wise. The log ins take a while.


Thank you for this information i think it will benefit many

AONomad

Oh btw, you should update the main post with the new 570k per month figure, it still says 400k from your earlier spreadsheet.

tmbrinks

AONomad wrote: »

Oh btw, you should update the main post with the new 570k per month figure, it still says 400k from your earlier spreadsheet.

It's not quite that high.. there was a math error, as I was "double counting" Jewelry, since when I initially set it up, half of my characters were not doing jewelry writs since my alt account didn't have access to it.

It's at 467k per month per character now

rsantijw13

up until last week I had the stats from mine going back 4+ years. even refining rates nice to see others doing it

redlink1979

wishlist14 wrote: »

...i have questioned in the past wether it's worth doing them on all my charactrrs or on just a couple...

It's worth doing with all the chars. I get at least 36k daily from 8 chars.
You can save a few time if you do a large amount of required items for alchemy and provisioning writs. I won't advise to do the same with enchantment because the crafted glyphs don't stack in the inventory.

I take about an hour to run all 8, with crafting selling deconstructing and managing bank/inventory on all. Loading screens is where we all lose precious minutes - 8 logins and 7 logouts here...

tmbrinks

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=1071793449

With Scalebreaker's release on PC tomorrow 8/12, data has updated with the last of the writs that will be done for this patch.

*notes

1) Master writ drop rate seemed to go up, I believe this is due to the sheer number of motifs some of my characters learned during the anniversary event.

2) Provisioning rates were low. 6 new characters who knew virtually no recipes probably bought this down some.

3) Chromium rates are still artificially low for the overall (alt account only has 4 characters doing max level writs) it's at nearly 25% for the main account.

4) Survey rates might be off because of bugs early in Elsweyr.

5) Individual rates for accounts can be seen on other tabs at the end, just didn't want to clutter the initial pages.

AONomad

Will be curious to see how adding zircon grains to the JC writ reward droplist affected chromium grain drop chance. I'll check back in with ya in a month or two to see how it's going haha

tmbrinks

AONomad wrote: »

Will be curious to see how adding zircon grains to the JC writ reward droplist affected chromium grain drop chance. I'll check back in with ya in a month or two to see how it's going haha

So far, it doesn't appear to have changed it at all.

My current hypothesis on the drop rates are as follows

Terne: 10-15%
Iridium: 30-35%
Zircon: 25-30%
Chromium: 20-25%

There's approximately a 15% chance of receiving a "double drop" of any of the above. There's approximately a 1% chance of receiving a full plating.

It also appears that the drop rates of the Terne and Iridium grains are more heavily weighted on the lower tier writs. But they aren't guaranteed either at those levels.

AONomad

Oh neat that's good news indeed.

tmbrinks

Because of the massive "debate" that has been going on recently about drop rates and such. I've added a calculation on each of the individual refining tabs that indicates my "luck" while refining.

Assuming a standard normal distribution with a drop rate of 1.5% for green improvement materials, 1.25% for blue improvement materials, 0.75% for purple improvement materials and 0.5% for gold improvement materials, I calculated the percentile rank of each of my refines, as well as my data as a whole, to see if there is any statistical abnormalities in my data.

At a 95% confidence interval any numbers that are <2.5% or >97.5% we might say are off

At a 99% confidence interval, those numbers are <0.5% or >99.5% for us to say that the drop rate is statistically different than the assumed drop rates from above.

tmbrinks

Updated the Writ Rewards Page to reflect the new jewelry crafting changes.

Changed the "cost" of jewelry master writs to 350g/voucher, which seems to be what the blue's are going for approximately.

Updated the "grains" drop of max level jewelry writs to reflect the new drops I've recorded in the first few weeks.

AONomad

Lol prices for chromium and zircon are going to crash once people realize how common they are from writs. I don't think it's sunk in yet since there's a lot of demand from new meta changes.

tmbrinks

AONomad wrote: »

Lol prices for chromium and zircon are going to crash once people realize how common they are from writs. I don't think it's sunk in yet since there's a lot of demand from new meta changes.

Agreed. All profits are linked to the MM prices I have, so as those change the profit will update accordingly.

tmbrinks

With today being the last day before Dragonhold DLC comes out. I have updated all information on the drops from my two accounts and what they have received.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yQDUjYNQVsIFl0ktkbkSlfYPkzP6pgCOTMQ-qCuzfaI/edit#gid=1985011865

No discernible changes are noticed in the drop rates with the exception

Enchanting surveys were low across both accounts, don't know if it's RNG or a change

Provisioning master writs are artificially low because only 6/18 on main account are doing max level, remainders are doing low level writs to get more recipes.

redlink1979

@tmbrinks Thanks!

friimynd

Thanks for the info. I've been considering what to do with my alts. Obviously having at least one main crafter is important for unlocking the crafting sets. Is there a benefit to having more than one?
It was mentioned that there is an inefficiency quotient to doing crafting writs, depending on your proficiency. So you could probably do better just earning a few more dollars by working some overtime or finding a 2nd income source. Then you do whatever people do to convert dollars to in game gold and other things. IDK, but it seems there are ways.
So really the value of doing the crafting on the alts needs to be great enough to offset this inefficiency. For example, one could be powerleveling or doing end game content for rewards and fun, vs. running around like robots punching buttons in kiosks. I do find it kind of relaxing and rewarding in a non-material way, especially with all the well-made addons.

What is the main benefit from crafting with alts?
- More high-end rewards (that can be bought with gold/money, so inefficiency again) basically just gold upgrades?
- Ability to obtain such rewards without having to shop/wait for others to post, compete with other buyers, etc.
- what else?

So, I've decided to keep on doing it, if only because it is something to do, but maybe sometimes I will and sometimes I won't.

So, let's put a pile of rewards/benefits from alt-crafting on the table and then a stack of $$$ representing the opportunity cost of the time spent doing the crafting. The new minimum minimum wage is now $22 so it just got more costly to waste time crafting.

Time per day per character doing all the writs? ... _________ minutes/seconds (high/low/average times)

Cost in $$$ of that time versus $$$ value of the rewards obtained.... _______ / ________ (which should be on top? probably the latter, so reward value / time value)

Inefficiency of crafting vs. spending $$$ for same in-game benefit: _______

.
.

on a side note, would there be any value to having a character at each level of crafting for the different reward boxes?