Lets talk about the RNG, why it exists, what problems it causes, and what can be done to improve things. Not the first to say this, doubt I'll be the last.

I'm currently chasing the last fragment for the new house. On any given day I am hunting for treasure maps, in the hopes that the chests will drop leads, or I am running Boring Nymic in the hopes of finding my missing lead, or I'm taking the long way round in Cyrodiil in search of the last recipe drop I need. On slower days, I venture forth to loot containers in the hopes of finding furnishing plans, or opening Unknown Writs hoping to get a high value one, so I can buy a portfolio page containing a random plan and then hoping I don't know it.

ZOS has done a lot over the years to reduce the grind - and I do praise them for doing so. Curated gear drops and the stickerbook were superb introductions, but a lot of RNG still exists in this game. The question is why? (We'll get to that in a moment). There are several types of RNG systems that can exist. A truly random roll, a pity system where in the percentage increases each time, or one with a flat out cap that awards the drop when the cap is reached. ESO employs the first - a truly random roll.

Gamers have for decades complained they have been cheated by the RNG, that it's broken, or it just doesn't work. This is usually fuelled by confirmation bias, but not always. Sometimes drop rates are broken or not working. We've seen this several times over the years, where the % was so low it mean the distribution of drops fell to a lucky few, because that's the thing about drop rates - they are subject to the Law of Large Numbers.

So, returning to the earlier question. Why does the RNG exist? Sometimes it is necessary to curate the rate at which something spawns in the world, rare recipes and the like that affect gameplay, or to create an economy for things to be sold, but most of the reason is to give a sense of accomplishment, albeit a false one. This varies on degrees of difficulty, for example solo farming a tough WB 60+ times to get a lead to drop isn't easy, where as looting 1,000 containers to get a furnishing drop may be time consuming it's not hard. Yet the sense of accomplishment felt levels out around the same, and the player feels more engaged and plays more. The problem comes when after farming 1,000 containers and getting no drops the player feels dejected and put off playing.

Finding the balance between effort and reward can be tricky, and I am a firm believer that effort should yield reward, and that little effort should not - but here too the RNG can cause that to be out of balance. Farming something a dozen times and getting nothing in a vacuum is one thing, farming it a dozen times and your friend getting it after one try is another. The remaining RNG components for drops needs to change. It needs to move away from the truly random to a pity or capped system.

That, in my opinion, still mean effort is required, maintain the sense of accomplishment, and do a better job at keeping players engaged and playing.