the drop rates for writhing bone shards....

fenn1539 · November 15

dude im seeing people go on about how hours of farming and literally HUNDREDS of dailies yeilding like maybe 1 to 3ish bone shards........ WHAT THE ACTUAL ***????? I JUST HOPPED INTO THE EVENT REALIZING THERE WAS AN EVENT GOING AFTER HAVING BEEN AWAY FROM THE GAME AND SAW A COOL ASS STYLE I WANTED FOR THE CALTROPS BUT ITS LIKE A WHAT???? A *** .6% DROP CHANCE IF WE ARE BEING GENEROUS???? LIKE I MAY AS WELL JUST GIVE UP CAUSE NO WAY IM GETTING 25 DAMN SHARDS IN 7 DAYS................. literallly, they are so *** rare that even tho they can be sold, im seeing the CHEAPEST being sold for 20k gold by people who dont seem to understand or care about their value with the more common lowest sales price is around *** 100k per singular shard.................... like WHAT THE HELL?????????????????????????? please just up the drop chance even to like 2 or 3% or more reasonably up it to like *** 5% or something so it isnt this chicken shoot 1 in a damn million level drop rate just so you guys can force a ridiculous and annoying as farm loop of dailies which no one needs to mention but are easily the worst game design you could go for as NO ONE likes dailies for a damn reason and forcing THOUSANDS to HOPE you get the damn thing you want is just stupid as hell..................

M0ntie · November 15

Agree 100%. Make the drop rates on the event shards reasonable!

fenn1539 · November 15

M0ntie wrote: »

Agree 100%. Make the drop rates on the event shards reasonable!

yea for the last week up em for people who only heard recently cause legit i have literally just given up on bothering to try cause i have 20k gold and already sold all my valuble *** buy sets for a different build and for matierials to improve the gear meaning i cant buy even half the shards with gold and 7 days aint enough to get even a damn fifth knowing my luck...............

GeneralGrundmann · November 15

Everything available during the event stays available after the event.

Two exceptions:

-Wall breaker title
-The Writhing Fortress

Orbital78 · November 15

Writhing Fortress farm netted me a dozen or more looting the three chests. Try your luck, you don't need the quest and the same character can do it multiple times.

People are trying to manipulate the price to 200k for fomo. Just farm, I even had an extra I listed on the trader.

AzuraFan · November 15

I still need a few. I'll be doing the crafting quest and vitrified souls quest every day until I get them. I'd like to do the siege camp quests, but they're already deserted, so that's out. Went to one this morning and it looks like the worm cult won. Nobody there, and I can't solo a camp. Who would have predicted they'd be deserted once the wall was down?

I checked the guild traders and laughed. Just do a crafting quest a day and you'll eventually get them. No need to pay an exorbitant price for something that's easy to get, but could take a while.

Its_MySniff · November 15

I know you want to be done with it. However, the style isn't cool, it's just a color change. On psna I sold all my extras at 48k a piece. Really cheap compared to others. I wish you luck.

SeaGtGruff · November 15

I've found my RNG with the Shards of Writhing Bone drops to be very uneven-- as expected with RNG.

I was making pretty good progress on PCEU doing just 24 quests each day on one character (my main), occasionally getting the Shards from three different sources-- the golden reward coffers, the purple reward coffers, and the chest that appears at the end of protecting a siege camp.

But then, in the last several days, my RNG on PCEU basically tanked.

In contrast, I wasn't getting nearly as many Shards of Writhing Bone on PCNA-- until I decided to start doing all 24 of the daily quests on a few alts, which was a day or two before the progress rate was increased so that Phase 2 could end sooner. I still wasn't getting many Shards on my main, but I started getting a healthy number of Shards on my alts, putting my progress on PCNA slightly ahead of my progress on PCEU.

I mention this because it seems to be a bit consistent with comments I've read from other players regarding their RNG while farming Antiquity leads, or grinding for other types of RNG-controlled drops-- namely, that if your RNG seems to be absolutely horrible, try switching to a different character and trying it, because sometimes that can result in a notable improvement in your RNG chances, possibly because there's a different RNG seed associated with each character, rather than just one RNG seed per account (although that's just a theory, not a known fact).

LootAllTheStuff · November 16

SeaGtGruff wrote: »

I've found my RNG with the Shards of Writhing Bone drops to be very uneven-- as expected with RNG.

I was making pretty good progress on PCEU doing just 24 quests each day on one character (my main), occasionally getting the Shards from three different sources-- the golden reward coffers, the purple reward coffers, and the chest that appears at the end of protecting a siege camp.

But then, in the last several days, my RNG on PCEU basically tanked.

In contrast, I wasn't getting nearly as many Shards of Writhing Bone on PCNA-- until I decided to start doing all 24 of the daily quests on a few alts, which was a day or two before the progress rate was increased so that Phase 2 could end sooner. I still wasn't getting many Shards on my main, but I started getting a healthy number of Shards on my alts, putting my progress on PCNA slightly ahead of my progress on PCEU.

I mention this because it seems to be a bit consistent with comments I've read from other players regarding their RNG while farming Antiquity leads, or grinding for other types of RNG-controlled drops-- namely, that if your RNG seems to be absolutely horrible, try switching to a different character and trying it, because sometimes that can result in a notable improvement in your RNG chances, possibly because there's a different RNG seed associated with each character, rather than just one RNG seed per account (although that's just a theory, not a known fact).

Shouldn't an RNG seed value basically be instantiated at the start of each character login session? Creating an initial seed and keeping the recursive random. number generator updating that (either per character or per account) in perpetuity doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

katanagirl1 · November 17

I have 31 of the pet fragments, plus the 25 that I used to create the pet. That would be a total of 56.

I have 13 bone fragments so far.

The pet fragments keep dropping at an increased rate compared to the bone fragments. I never get both, so I assume that if I get a pet fragment that my chance of getting a bone fragments just went to zero.

I don’t understand why the first item to start dropping would have a greater chance than the later one, which needs to catch up if anything. What am I supposed to do with the pet fragments after I create the pet? They aren’t rare enough to sell. I just keep them to gain some insight into the drop rates of the two.

AzuraFan · November 17

I caved yesterday and bought the last 6 shards I needed, but not at the exorbitant prices at most guild traders. I basically ported around checking guild traders in major cities and was fortunate enough to find one that had a whole bunch for sale for 20k each. It's a "you need to check right after they go up or they're gone" situation. That's why I just kept porting around.

While I was doing that, the avg price seemed to be around 175k with someone selling one for 500k. No way would I have paid that, and I originally planned to just do the dailies everyday, but I got bored with them and wanted to move on. I did get 3 golden boxes today (turning in quests I completed yesterday before caving), but I didn't get any shards, so I'm glad I finally caved. That's it for me for the event dailies.

I had 20+ pet parts in my inventory at the time, and guess what dropped for me from today's golden boxes?

SeaGtGruff · November 17

I found the last several Shards of Writhing Bone that I needed on PCEU and PCNA inside the chests that appear after killing the three bosses in the Writhing Fortress. It took several runs, and I did receive some Haj Mota fragments as well, but now I'm starting to receive excess Shards of Writhing Bone.

I don't know if it helped, but I ran the Writhing Fortress on a few of my alts, rather than just running it over and over on my two mains, which is what seemed to help my Shards of Writhing Bone drops from the daily event quest reward coffers.

SeaGtGruff · November 17

LootAllTheStuff wrote: »

SeaGtGruff wrote: »

I've found my RNG with the Shards of Writhing Bone drops to be very uneven-- as expected with RNG.

I was making pretty good progress on PCEU doing just 24 quests each day on one character (my main), occasionally getting the Shards from three different sources-- the golden reward coffers, the purple reward coffers, and the chest that appears at the end of protecting a siege camp.

But then, in the last several days, my RNG on PCEU basically tanked.

In contrast, I wasn't getting nearly as many Shards of Writhing Bone on PCNA-- until I decided to start doing all 24 of the daily quests on a few alts, which was a day or two before the progress rate was increased so that Phase 2 could end sooner. I still wasn't getting many Shards on my main, but I started getting a healthy number of Shards on my alts, putting my progress on PCNA slightly ahead of my progress on PCEU.

I mention this because it seems to be a bit consistent with comments I've read from other players regarding their RNG while farming Antiquity leads, or grinding for other types of RNG-controlled drops-- namely, that if your RNG seems to be absolutely horrible, try switching to a different character and trying it, because sometimes that can result in a notable improvement in your RNG chances, possibly because there's a different RNG seed associated with each character, rather than just one RNG seed per account (although that's just a theory, not a known fact).

Shouldn't an RNG seed value basically be instantiated at the start of each character login session? Creating an initial seed and keeping the recursive random. number generator updating that (either per character or per account) in perpetuity doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

There must be many different ways of establishing RNG seeds, depending on the sort of result that's desired. I've no idea how it's done in ESO, but some players have observed and reported results which (to my mind, at least) seem to suggest that RNG seeds might be per-character.

For example, there are reports that ones chance of finding a particular antiquity lead might be very high for the first drop, but might go down drastically after that, making it much rarer to find the lead a second or third time. And I believe the players who've reported those sorts of observations have also reported that switching to a different character might improve their chances of finding the lead again.

Personally, I don't farm leads to the degree that other players seem to do, so I can neither confirm nor refute anyone else's observations based on my own personal experiences, other than a few instances of RNG drops related to event collectibles.

LootAllTheStuff · November 17

SeaGtGruff wrote: »

LootAllTheStuff wrote: »

SeaGtGruff wrote: »

I've found my RNG with the Shards of Writhing Bone drops to be very uneven-- as expected with RNG.

I was making pretty good progress on PCEU doing just 24 quests each day on one character (my main), occasionally getting the Shards from three different sources-- the golden reward coffers, the purple reward coffers, and the chest that appears at the end of protecting a siege camp.

But then, in the last several days, my RNG on PCEU basically tanked.

In contrast, I wasn't getting nearly as many Shards of Writhing Bone on PCNA-- until I decided to start doing all 24 of the daily quests on a few alts, which was a day or two before the progress rate was increased so that Phase 2 could end sooner. I still wasn't getting many Shards on my main, but I started getting a healthy number of Shards on my alts, putting my progress on PCNA slightly ahead of my progress on PCEU.

I mention this because it seems to be a bit consistent with comments I've read from other players regarding their RNG while farming Antiquity leads, or grinding for other types of RNG-controlled drops-- namely, that if your RNG seems to be absolutely horrible, try switching to a different character and trying it, because sometimes that can result in a notable improvement in your RNG chances, possibly because there's a different RNG seed associated with each character, rather than just one RNG seed per account (although that's just a theory, not a known fact).

Shouldn't an RNG seed value basically be instantiated at the start of each character login session? Creating an initial seed and keeping the recursive random. number generator updating that (either per character or per account) in perpetuity doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

There must be many different ways of establishing RNG seeds, depending on the sort of result that's desired. I've no idea how it's done in ESO, but some players have observed and reported results which (to my mind, at least) seem to suggest that RNG seeds might be per-character.

For example, there are reports that ones chance of finding a particular antiquity lead might be very high for the first drop, but might go down drastically after that, making it much rarer to find the lead a second or third time. And I believe the players who've reported those sorts of observations have also reported that switching to a different character might improve their chances of finding the lead again.

Personally, I don't farm leads to the degree that other players seem to do, so I can neither confirm nor refute anyone else's observations based on my own personal experiences, other than a few instances of RNG drops related to event collectibles.

That sounds like the West Weald leads, which appear to be horribly bugged for the 2nd and 3rd ones for basically everybody. I think the larger problem with leads seems to be that they keep adding them into the same pool, so the odds get progressively smaller and smaller with each new batch of content.

RNG can certainly look likes it hates one player or character more than another, but that's exactly what you'd expect to see when drop chances fall into the >1% realm.

BXR_Lonestar · November 18

katanagirl1 wrote: »

I have 31 of the pet fragments, plus the 25 that I used to create the pet. That would be a total of 56.

I have 13 bone fragments so far.

The pet fragments keep dropping at an increased rate compared to the bone fragments. I never get both, so I assume that if I get a pet fragment that my chance of getting a bone fragments just went to zero.

I don’t understand why the first item to start dropping would have a greater chance than the later one, which needs to catch up if anything. What am I supposed to do with the pet fragments after I create the pet? They aren’t rare enough to sell. I just keep them to gain some insight into the drop rates of the two.

I haven't kept track of the Haj Mota pieces that I've gotten but I know I've gotten enough to get it twice over. I only have 19 pieces of the bone fragments I need for the caltrops style, and I'm probably going to buy the fragments I need to complete it, as I have been getting less than 1 a day for the past week.

The drop rates for this are absolutely terrible, and you would think they would have increased the drop rate for this and the house so that those who have ground their tails off can feel some sense of reward.