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What exactly is 'a small chance'

Rufusstan
Rufusstan
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The phrase above is sufficiently vague as to be meaningless, In the anniversary announcement you have: Motifs pages dropping from anniversary boxes, old style pages from the same source, the True Flame Style page from Fishing and the Staff of Worms from Dolmens (I have no experience of the other style pages so wont comment). Through the event I have got in the order of 100 motif pages and around 25 old style pages. The True Flame dropped after around 50 casts, and the Staff of Worms still hasn't dropped after about 100 Dolmens.

All are described as having a small chance to drop. So what is a small chance? The approximate 30-40%+ chance of getting a motif page or the 1% (or less) chance of getting the rare Style pages. And that is just my experience. Its well known (basic statistics) that a very low success chance generates a wide variation in outcomes. This leads to a situation where one player gets their style page in a few Dolmens and another does several hundred without any success. Leaving these things to (pseudo) random chance leads to lots of unhappy people.
  • Carcamongus
    Carcamongus
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    Small chance, in this context, appears to mean you'd have better luck trying the lottery.
    Imperial DK and Necro tank. PC/NA
    "Nothing is so bad that it can't get any worse." (Brazilian saying)
  • liliub17_ESO
    liliub17_ESO
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    "Small chance" in game RNG generally means less than 10%, I'd guess, based on other games I play. "Very small" chance is generally about 2%.

    (Numbers arbitrary and based on observation as well as various other people's tracking, not a chart I could post a link to here.)
  • Grizzbeorn
    Grizzbeorn
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    Teeny, teeny, tiny.
      PC/NA Warden Main
    • Hapexamendios
      Hapexamendios
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      About the same as spontaneously growing gills.
    • Vonnegut2506
      Vonnegut2506
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      The same as Jessica Alba being interested in divorcing her current husband and marrying me, a 50+ fat guy.
    • wilykcat
      wilykcat
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      A very small chance is when creating a original post on general discussion without it becoming a debate. It's a -1000% chance.
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