Probability of rare jubilee drops speculation thread

furiouslog
furiouslog
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Okay, I've done this sort of thing before, so I'm doing it again. How many times do we have to run a particular event to get the rare jubilee drops?

Assuming that "rare" is most likely 1 in 100 (apex drops from crates are 2 in 100), and assuming that all page drops are attainable in each individual event instance, here we go:

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Assuming an average of 4 minutes per event instance including travel time, to nearly guarantee all drops, you're looking at 5*4*500=167 hours of grinding, which is technically doable within the time period, although some people (fewer than 1 percent) will still need more runs than that.

Have fun everyone!
Edited by furiouslog on April 7, 2024 8:13PM
  • BetweenMidgets
    BetweenMidgets
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    Setting up a "reasonable grinding time" during an anniversary celebration seems pretty awful.

    Thank you for the work you do, but I'd rather not encourage this kind of behaviour from ZOS.
    PC-NA
  • furiouslog
    furiouslog
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    Setting up a "reasonable grinding time" during an anniversary celebration seems pretty awful.

    Thank you for the work you do, but I'd rather not encourage this kind of behaviour from ZOS.

    I'm not trying to encourage it at all. If anything, the opposite.

    I've criticized ZOS in the past for this sort of thing (most particularly, the maelstrom staff if anyone cares to sift back through my posts), and time and again they seem to miscalculate the (presumably) unintended consequences of their design decisions on the player base. The introduction of curated drops was a godsend for that issue, but leads and specific rare drops that are highly desirable continue to create situations that increase community toxicity and frustrates players who enjoy the collectible aspects of the game.

    If the goal is to increase engagement, then drops should be designed in a way that increases enjoyable game time, instead of grindy repetitive tasks. For example, having each dolmen/delve/dungeon/other"d"word drop a different piece of a constructable item with high drop rates instead of a low drop rate on any dolmen. Design tasks that create incentives to group and such with jubilee items as rewards.

    One thing Lost Ark does well is that any time the community whines about anything, they overcompensate with presents. That has, of course, created a childish and spoiled community (which it pretty much was anyway), but I think that there is a happy medium between spoiling players and disappointing them, and ZOS still has work there. We should come out of this event having been delighted in its participation, but usually all I am is sick and tired of doing the same thing over and over.

    C'mon ZOS, do better. I know you can, because you often eventually do.
  • SeaWoodStage
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    I agree with most of what you say @furiouslog, (I can't speak to games I haven't played such as Lost Ark, ESO is my only MMORPG) and also thank you for running the maths. And as you have already stated, it is possible to run 1,000+ dolmens/geysers/vvardenfell bosses and still not get a single drop.

    I love ESO. My husband's been playing it consistently since early 2018 and me since summer 2019. We both love this game and put hours of our leisure time every week into enjoying it, solo and together.

    When the event was coming up, we both checked out what was going on. We saw the style pages and got excited. We thoughtr "Oh, this will be fun! We'll hang out on mic, do some dolmens, do some WBs in Vvardenfell, do some Geysers, this'll be nice!"

    A few days later, I know people who have done 264 Dolmens and nothing. 167 Geysers and nothing. 7-8 hours camping Vvardenfell WBs each day for three days and nothing.

    I'm assuming that Zos just wanted to give us something nice and put it behind some effort? I do sometimes wonder if they forget what it's lilke to be an actual player and have to deal with RNG. And also how percentages work.

    This event is supposed to be FUN. My husband and I were looking forward to groupng with each other and friends for Anchors, Geysers and VVardenfell bosses. We were both also planning (solo) revisting various fun dailies for nostalgia (like the Guild dailies, Jee-La's, Zahariah's etc.)

    What should've been a joyous, fun celebration of a truly amazing game, has become an RNG nightmare. Committed players, instead of enjoying the celebration, are becoming frustrated and miserable.
  • Smaxx
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    To be fair, I have yet to experience a lead that is as illusive as these event rewards.😉

    And I've been there, in the waters of Shadowfen. I did my part.🫠
  • Jaraal
    Jaraal
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    Took me 20 hours in a cave in Vvardenfell to get both style pages. But at least I got a couple hundred event boxes from the boss. Plus I got to tab out and play other games for four of every five minutes spent.
    RIP Bosmer Nation. 4/4/14 - 2/25/19.
  • CGPsaint
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    Comment deleted as my views and opinions are not relevant to ZoS.
    Edited by CGPsaint on April 19, 2024 12:35AM
    "Some enjoy bringing grief to others. They remind M'aiq of mudcrabs—horrible creatures, with no redeeming qualities."
  • furiouslog
    furiouslog
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    My math is an educated guess btw. Different assumptions will result in different outcomes. If I get toasted enough later I might write a sim in a google sheet and share it, but it will still tell the same overall story - most people will spend many many hours farming these pages and some will never get them all within the event time frame. It is my hope that they make some adjustments during maintenance tomorrow. If they do, they ought to broadcast that and take some credit.
  • Vulkunne
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    None of us created this event, we can do the best we can with what we can find out however the real answer or suggestion really should come from ZOS. And if ZOS won't or for some reason simply can't respond or provide hints then I feel it out of place for any one of us to care too much about this for it is not our place to care for them.
    Edited by Vulkunne on April 8, 2024 12:14PM
    "I know that someday that sun is bound to shine." -Ella Fitzgerald
  • Rkindaleft
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    If the drop rate is about 1/100 as you said, which I'd say it is or close to it given how many people I've seen that have done 100s of WB or Geysers/Dolmens without getting the drop, it really bothers me that alongside waiting 5 minutes for a new boss to spawn in say Vvardenfell you're looking at a 1/100 drop rate for an item that's not tradeable. The only style page I'm really interested in is the Barbas mask but with only about an hour to give to farming world bosses during this event each day (my timezone is really bad unless I want to stay up super late and the other few hours I can put in a week are for my raid group) I'm not even guaranteed to get the drop during this entire event length.

    If they halved the drop rate to 1/50 it would still be too rare given how long you have to wait for each world event to activate. Currently, they spawn every 5 minutes you probably get 12 world boss kills an hour, likely less if you're a player with low DPS, It would take nearly 10 hours to even HIT the drop rate if you got loot every time, for an item that's from an event, that is untradeable and only offered for a limited time period. After all that, you realise that there are 5 of them that are farmable with the same odds.

    Edited by Rkindaleft on April 8, 2024 12:12AM
    https://youtube.com/@rkindaleft PlayStation NA. I upload parses and trial POVs sometimes.
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  • Carcamongus
    Carcamongus
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    One hundred and sixty-seven hours of grinding, with the possibility of failure still present, during an event which, in theory, should've been a major celebration. Opinions in game and here have been overwhelmingly negative. Is this how the devs want this important milestone to be remembered? What does this tell us about the next 10 years?

    Somewhere far away, Molag Bal has the last laugh.
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  • ChaoticWings3
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    I'll be honest if I ran dolmans enough times to be at a coin flip percentage and continue to not get a drop I guess my luck is just really terrible I guess based on your percentages. :( I think the average I've been seeing at the very least is around 150 dolmen runs for the Ulvor and worm staff. So I think it kind of works like this: The first 100 dolmens you complete the percentage is 1% for a drop. After 100, each subsequent dolman increases the chance of the drop by 1%. I feel this is a bit more reasonable based on other accounts I've been looking at. I still think its silly if that's the case. Mindlessly grinding for this would burn me out if I wasn't taking breaks. Its the main reason why I'm commenting on some of these topics involving this since if I feel like I may burn myself out doing this WHILE taking breaks others that feel they need to grind until they get the item will probably end up getting them but will probably put the game down later or look back and find the time wasted on doing the same task for so long was just not fun for them. I've been there before and took a 6 month hiatus from the game and I'm worried others may fall into that same hole. I came back because I enjoy this game and the lore but others may not feel the same.

    I don't think these items with the drop rate they have should be locked behind doing the same repetitive task over and over without an alternative. I said this in another topic but I wish they had the option to buy them with event tickets. I said about 10 since if they want to encourage players to do certain activities during the event I think the cost should still be high to encourage them to participate to try to get them. But if they still want the desired item they have another option of obtaining it so they can go back to how they prefer to enjoy the game rather than burning themselves out.
  • SeaWoodStage
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    All I'm saying is that I started this event with the desire to get all the style pages, and the assumption that doing so would be fun. I knew where they would all drop from, I anticipitaed a grind, but I thought it would be enjoyable. What's actually happenned is that RNG is so awful that plenty of people I know that are really good at all kinds of aspects of this game, people that have most HMs done, have been spending literally days camping anchors, bosses and geysers without a drop.

    Was this intentional? Did Zos think it would be a fun way to celebrate ten years to have huge amounts of people farming the same boring activities over amd over again? The rest of the event has been so generous and fun as usual.

    To misquote Rincewind, I've decided I'd rather stick my foot in a bacon slicer than spend one more minute of my time seekking these style pages. NIce day to be alive and a gamer, as usual :)
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