RNG, Luck, and Strategy.

RCubed1967 · July 2023

There is a significant reason for the need to change our ranking system. As I continue to push for change, I also find some people misinterpret the differences between these three very different things. This needs to be understood.

Our game is based on a form of Random Number Generation (RNG). Essentially, this is a game of probabilities like multiple coin flips. There is RNG in who picks first, which cards are on the board, and in what order our cards are naturally shuffled into our draw deck.

Luck is getting something we desire from the RNG. Good luck might be getting the first pick. It also is getting six gold on the second pick and getting Armory. It could be getting great choices to purchase from the table. Bad luck might be considered for each of those by the opposing player. EVERY game has luck - it is not 20% of the time. Good luck and bad luck can come in streaks over multiple games.

Strategy is knowing what to do given the RNG. It shows itself in a person's choice of patrons for the first pick versus their choice of picks for the second pick. It shows itself in the person's ability to know which cards are more valuable at different points of the game. It also shows up in their abilities to set up non-natural combos (e.g., use psijic cards to set up subsequent crows combos).

No matter how good a player's strategy is, luck will dominate the RNG. Great players will lose games to new players who do not yet understand the game's intricacies.

A game of RNG and luck requires multiple games between players to show how a person should be truly ranked.

There are some amazing players out there, but our current ranking system does not acknowledge that. Instead, it considers us similar to chess where RNG and luck do not exist.

Please fix our ranking system to recognize RNG and luck.

AnduinTryggva · July 2023

It is a myth that a ToT match is decided by strategy. It is just learning what the good cards are and what cards to play when. This is not even close to a strategy.

To be optimistic and benevolent the rng part is at 80% (likely more), the remaining 20% is to not make a mistake.

I will quit ToT as soon as I have the collectibles as devs don't seem to care about enjoyability of this game. Contrary to that they increase the frustration potential by maintaining a concede penalty when the remaining player base is now after more than a year highly experienced and make little mistakes reducing the match outcome to rng, reducing the daily quest rewards output and keeping up the threshold for the golden daily box.

RCubed1967 · July 2023

@AnduinTryggva - I am sorry you feel so discouraged. I sometimes get very frustrated with RNG and Luck too, but I respectfully disagree with you on the existence of a strategy.

If strategy did not exist in the game, then the laws of probability would dictate. Over time, every player would end up with a 50% win rate, both in total and against each other player. You would see that start to coalesce in about 30 games played.

I know that is not true based on my personal experiences.

If you would like help to try to improve your win rate, maybe I can help. I host "Tales of Tribute Tuesday" for both Skeevers guilds (Trusty Skeevers and Scheeming Skeevers). There I walk through strategies using NPCs but also touch on PvP strategies. As many people feel frustrated with the game, I use this to help them understand the game's intricacies and rekindle people's interest. I hope they will likely learn to beat me later (easy to do).

Touch base with me in the game if you are interested. I use the same user ID as I do here in the forums.

Seraphayel · July 2023

In general I agree with both takes, luck and RNG is the core of this game. I do not agree with your definition of strategy though. What you explained is not strategy, it‘s knowledge.

And here comes the problem: strategy in this game is very dependent on luck. Here it isn’t that important who picks first or second, but which cards are dealt in the tavern. If you pick Almalexia and Pelin, that‘s your desired strategy. If the tavern gets no cards for both, your strategy is out of the window. And you need to adapt.

Now you can try to adapt and play in favor of one or both of the other patrons - but when the Almalexia and Pelin cards are coming up, do you pass on them or do you get to play around your former - supposedly - bad decisions for other patrons?

This game only has real strategy when you have luck. When you don’t have luck, you adapt to the situation, but I would hardly call that strategy. It‘s adaption.

AnduinTryggva · July 2023

RCubed1967 wrote: »

@AnduinTryggva - I am sorry you feel so discouraged. I sometimes get very frustrated with RNG and Luck too, but I respectfully disagree with you on the existence of a strategy.

If strategy did not exist in the game, then the laws of probability would dictate. Over time, every player would end up with a 50% win rate, both in total and against each other player. You would see that start to coalesce in about 30 games played.

I know that is not true based on my personal experiences.

If you would like help to try to improve your win rate, maybe I can help. I host "Tales of Tribute Tuesday" for both Skeevers guilds (Trusty Skeevers and Scheeming Skeevers). There I walk through strategies using NPCs but also touch on PvP strategies. As many people feel frustrated with the game, I use this to help them understand the game's intricacies and rekindle people's interest. I hope they will likely learn to beat me later (easy to do).

Touch base with me in the game if you are interested. I use the same user ID as I do here in the forums.

The part that is not rng is just making zero mistakes or at least less than your opponent. And as I made a statistics a while ago the win/lose ratio is pretty close to 50% (maybe something like 40/60). There are similar statistics around that you can consult on this forum.

If strategy would be the decisive part of this game the win/lose ratio would be much disparate.

RCubed1967 · July 2023

I understand your point @Seraphayel, but let me expand more. It is all definitions, but I think we agree overall. Luck dictates (and therefore ranking needs to recognize that).

Strategy definition: a plan of action or policy designed to achieve a major or overall aim. Our aim is to win a game.

I think your take is looking at one action at a time, whereas I failed to state that it is a combined series of actions.

My pick of patrons is the start of my strategy. The cards that I choose in different parts of the game are part of the strategy. The strategy must be fluid (able to change) because of the luck of the table and natural draws but is also reliant on my past choices, the expectation of new choices, and defence. It is way more than knowing which card is good.

We can look at each action independently, but we often take those actions with forethought of the fluid strategy.

I see the capabilities of certain players in how they adapt, but it isn't because of a single action. It is because they use a fluid strategy. It isn't just one-off decisions. There are some amazing players in ToT!!!

I hope this explains it a bit better.

(BTW, I am almost finished writing my doctoral thesis on a strategic business paradigm called Dynamic Capabilities - not that that helps my ability to lose lol frequently. I use ToT for relaxation and fun).

SeaGtGruff · July 2023

There most definitely is strategy involved. Yes, RNG and luck can determine whether that strategy is successful or not-- but without good strategy, RNG and luck are usually insufficient.

spartaxoxo · July 2023

Seraphayel wrote: »

This game only has real strategy when you have luck. When you don’t have luck, you adapt to the situation, but I would hardly call that strategy. It‘s adaption.

I have multiple strategies in mind for nearly every single deck whenever I play. The only exception is Almalexia .I can adapt very easily because I already know things I want to aim for both if things are going great for me in the tavern, and when they aren't.

When I see someone pick two decks, I try to counter pick if I'm going first. Because I know what they likely want to do, and what I hope can counteract it.

I lose to RNG like everyone else and can recognize when I'm in a bad luck streak too. But, it doesn't happen so often I feel like the game is pure luck. I've also played in tournaments and some random matches against players that weren't activity finder. Haven't won a tourney yet but have come very close twice. 2nd and 3rd place isn't bad. Although I don't do them anymore. Anyway, each one there were people complaining they lost to me due to RNG when really they made mistakes I capitalized on.