Drop chances for each material type in ore nodes ?

vsrs_au · May 2023

I can't seem to find this information on this forum or elsewhere, so here's what I'd like to know:

For ore nodes, what are the drop chances for each material type that can spawn at that node ? I already understand that it's a combination of the following:
- ore based on character level (e.g. CP160+ character can get rubedite ore;
- ore based on character's blacksmithing level (e.g. blacksmithing level 1-4 can get iron ore, but level 50 can get more rubedite ore);
- jewelry seam based on character level (e.g. CP160+ character can get platinum seam); and
- jewelry seam based on character's blacksmithing level (e.g. blacksmithing level 1-4 can get pewter seam, but level 50 can get more platinum seam).

So, given these 4 types of materials that can drop for a CP160+ character with only low level blacksmithing experience, what are the chances of each material type dropping ? Have any of you checked the numbers on these ?

tmbrinks · May 2023

The node has a 50% chance of being at your crafting level and the material that would be used at that level (level 1-10 for BS, or 1-5 for jewelry), and 50% being at your character level and the material that would be used there.

Jewelry nodes and blacksmithing nodes share spawn points.

Anecdotally it's about a 25% chance to be a jewelry, and a 75% chance to be a blacksmithing. But this may be due to a selection bias, as I think people are more likely to get a jewelry node than they are a blacksmithing node if they randomly see a node, leaving a surplus of blacksmithing nodes.

vsrs_au · May 2023

tmbrinks wrote: »

The node has a 50% chance of being at your crafting level and the material that would be used at that level (level 1-10 for BS, or 1-5 for jewelry), and 50% being at your character level and the material that would be used there.

Jewelry nodes and blacksmithing nodes share spawn points.

Anecdotally it's about a 25% chance to be a jewelry, and a 75% chance to be a blacksmithing. But this may be due to a selection bias, as I think people are more likely to get a jewelry node than they are a blacksmithing node if they randomly see a node, leaving a surplus of blacksmithing nodes.

Thanks for the great (and quick) answer, it really helps!

Off-topic, but related: I also read somewhere (here or reddit, I forget which) that pewter dust has a higher chance of dropping chromium grains when refined than platinum dust - is there any truth to this ?

phaneub17_ESO · May 2023

You'll get more chromium grains from max jewelry crafting daily boxes than you will from refining. Sometimes its 2 grains and sometimes you get a full plating. With 18 characters it averages out to 2-3 platings a week which is a good reason to max them out.

tmbrinks · May 2023

vsrs_au wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

The node has a 50% chance of being at your crafting level and the material that would be used at that level (level 1-10 for BS, or 1-5 for jewelry), and 50% being at your character level and the material that would be used there.

Jewelry nodes and blacksmithing nodes share spawn points.

Anecdotally it's about a 25% chance to be a jewelry, and a 75% chance to be a blacksmithing. But this may be due to a selection bias, as I think people are more likely to get a jewelry node than they are a blacksmithing node if they randomly see a node, leaving a surplus of blacksmithing nodes.

Thanks for the great (and quick) answer, it really helps!

Off-topic, but related: I also read somewhere (here or reddit, I forget which) that pewter dust has a higher chance of dropping chromium grains when refined than platinum dust - is there any truth to this ?

No. The drop rates while refining are only affected by the level of your extraction passive and the Meticulous Disassembly CP star. With everything maxed, you have a 45% chance of getting any temper. Then it's weighted 6:5:3:2 for Green:Blue:Purple:Gold

Edit: Just because I've wanted to do it for a while (and to continue to fight refining misinformation on the forums). I went onto the PTS to test.

There is no evidence to suggest the drop rates by material type vary in any statistical way.

vsrs_au · May 2023

tmbrinks wrote: »

vsrs_au wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

The node has a 50% chance of being at your crafting level and the material that would be used at that level (level 1-10 for BS, or 1-5 for jewelry), and 50% being at your character level and the material that would be used there.

Jewelry nodes and blacksmithing nodes share spawn points.

Anecdotally it's about a 25% chance to be a jewelry, and a 75% chance to be a blacksmithing. But this may be due to a selection bias, as I think people are more likely to get a jewelry node than they are a blacksmithing node if they randomly see a node, leaving a surplus of blacksmithing nodes.

Thanks for the great (and quick) answer, it really helps!

Off-topic, but related: I also read somewhere (here or reddit, I forget which) that pewter dust has a higher chance of dropping chromium grains when refined than platinum dust - is there any truth to this ?

No. The drop rates while refining are only affected by the level of your extraction passive and the Meticulous Disassembly CP star. With everything maxed, you have a 45% chance of getting any temper. Then it's weighted 6:5:3:2 for Green:Blue:Purple:Gold

Edit: Just because I've wanted to do it for a while (and to continue to fight refining misinformation on the forums). I went onto the PTS to test.

There is no evidence to suggest the drop rates by material type vary in any statistical way.

Thanks again, that's very useful!

Nestor · May 2023

No matter what, invest in the Star that gives a chance to double the drops. And the quick harvest passives if you can afford the points to do so.

More raw mats, more chances to get Tempers.

vsrs_au · May 2023

Nestor wrote: »

No matter what, invest in the Star that gives a chance to double the drops. And the quick harvest passives if you can afford the points to do so.

More raw mats, more chances to get Tempers.

Yes, I got both those a while back, they're very useful.

vsrs_au · May 2023

I just put these numbers to the test with my crafting armoury build (with max blacksmithing and CP160+). I did a Hew's Bane ore farming loop I read about, following the loop until the latest weekly endeavour (harvest 100 materials) was done. It was surprisingly quick, as it's a very nice ore farming loop. I ended up with 149 platinum dust and 270 rubedite ore.

I forgot to screenshot the rubedite refining results before the materials vanished into the craft bag, but for the platinum refining I got
- 1 chromium grain
- 2 zircon grains
- 2 terne grains

Phaedrathallassa · May 2023

That's very nice data, tmbrinks. It lines up perfectly with my own collected data on live!

vsrs_au · May 2023

tmbrinks wrote: »

vsrs_au wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

The node has a 50% chance of being at your crafting level and the material that would be used at that level (level 1-10 for BS, or 1-5 for jewelry), and 50% being at your character level and the material that would be used there.

Jewelry nodes and blacksmithing nodes share spawn points.

Anecdotally it's about a 25% chance to be a jewelry, and a 75% chance to be a blacksmithing. But this may be due to a selection bias, as I think people are more likely to get a jewelry node than they are a blacksmithing node if they randomly see a node, leaving a surplus of blacksmithing nodes.

Thanks for the great (and quick) answer, it really helps!

Off-topic, but related: I also read somewhere (here or reddit, I forget which) that pewter dust has a higher chance of dropping chromium grains when refined than platinum dust - is there any truth to this ?

No. The drop rates while refining are only affected by the level of your extraction passive and the Meticulous Disassembly CP star. With everything maxed, you have a 45% chance of getting any temper. Then it's weighted 6:5:3:2 for Green:Blue:Purple:Gold

Edit: Just because I've wanted to do it for a while (and to continue to fight refining misinformation on the forums). I went onto the PTS to test.

There is no evidence to suggest the drop rates by material type vary in any statistical way.

Can I ask another 2 questions about the drop rates?

1. When refining to produce these figures, did you refine 1 stack at a time, or refine all stacks in 1 operation?
2. My reading on this forum and others doesn't give any definite answer on whether refining all stacks in 1 operation actually causes the game to calculate the drop rate per stack or over the entire amount, so do you know which the game actually does?

Logic suggests that refining entire amounts instead of per stack would be more risky, because if the RNG is bad, the entire amount yields fewer grains, or if the RNG is good, we get more grains. On the other hand, refining 1 stack at a time would tend to average the RNG and produce a more consistent result. Kind of like a risky (but potentially very rewarding) investment, vs a safe investment.

I haven't done enough refining to know the answers to those questions, as I've only been crafting for about 6 months now, so I'd appreciate your learned feedback.

tmbrinks · May 2023

vsrs_au wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

vsrs_au wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

The node has a 50% chance of being at your crafting level and the material that would be used at that level (level 1-10 for BS, or 1-5 for jewelry), and 50% being at your character level and the material that would be used there.

Jewelry nodes and blacksmithing nodes share spawn points.

Anecdotally it's about a 25% chance to be a jewelry, and a 75% chance to be a blacksmithing. But this may be due to a selection bias, as I think people are more likely to get a jewelry node than they are a blacksmithing node if they randomly see a node, leaving a surplus of blacksmithing nodes.

Thanks for the great (and quick) answer, it really helps!

Off-topic, but related: I also read somewhere (here or reddit, I forget which) that pewter dust has a higher chance of dropping chromium grains when refined than platinum dust - is there any truth to this ?

No. The drop rates while refining are only affected by the level of your extraction passive and the Meticulous Disassembly CP star. With everything maxed, you have a 45% chance of getting any temper. Then it's weighted 6:5:3:2 for Green:Blue:Purple:Gold

Edit: Just because I've wanted to do it for a while (and to continue to fight refining misinformation on the forums). I went onto the PTS to test.

There is no evidence to suggest the drop rates by material type vary in any statistical way.

Can I ask another 2 questions about the drop rates?

1. When refining to produce these figures, did you refine 1 stack at a time, or refine all stacks in 1 operation?
2. My reading on this forum and others doesn't give any definite answer on whether refining all stacks in 1 operation actually causes the game to calculate the drop rate per stack or over the entire amount, so do you know which the game actually does?

Logic suggests that refining entire amounts instead of per stack would be more risky, because if the RNG is bad, the entire amount yields fewer grains, or if the RNG is good, we get more grains. On the other hand, refining 1 stack at a time would tend to average the RNG and produce a more consistent result. Kind of like a risky (but potentially very rewarding) investment, vs a safe investment.

I haven't done enough refining to know the answers to those questions, as I've only been crafting for about 6 months now, so I'd appreciate your learned feedback.

It doesn't matter how you refine. The game still calculates it one refine at a time, it will just do the calculation 10 times, 100 time, up to 1000 times. It's not like it takes one roll and multiplies it by the number of refines you did. It's not like it is taking 1 die roll and giving you that number 100 times... it's rolling 100 dice all at once and giving you what each individual one lands on. The "RNG" is already smoothed out.

I have detailed tabs on my spreadsheet linked in my signature of pre-multicraft (when you had to do it one refine at a time) and post-multicraft. The drop rates are the same. (Meticulous disassembly changed the drop rates, and that was introduced after multi-refining was a thing, so if you're looking at pre-multicraft to post-meticulous disassembly, you will see a change, but not due to the refining change, due to meticulous disassembly)

tl,dr. Save your time, refine all at once.

vsrs_au · June 2023

tmbrinks wrote: »

vsrs_au wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

vsrs_au wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

The node has a 50% chance of being at your crafting level and the material that would be used at that level (level 1-10 for BS, or 1-5 for jewelry), and 50% being at your character level and the material that would be used there.

Jewelry nodes and blacksmithing nodes share spawn points.

Anecdotally it's about a 25% chance to be a jewelry, and a 75% chance to be a blacksmithing. But this may be due to a selection bias, as I think people are more likely to get a jewelry node than they are a blacksmithing node if they randomly see a node, leaving a surplus of blacksmithing nodes.

Thanks for the great (and quick) answer, it really helps!

Off-topic, but related: I also read somewhere (here or reddit, I forget which) that pewter dust has a higher chance of dropping chromium grains when refined than platinum dust - is there any truth to this ?

No. The drop rates while refining are only affected by the level of your extraction passive and the Meticulous Disassembly CP star. With everything maxed, you have a 45% chance of getting any temper. Then it's weighted 6:5:3:2 for Green:Blue:Purple:Gold

Edit: Just because I've wanted to do it for a while (and to continue to fight refining misinformation on the forums). I went onto the PTS to test.

There is no evidence to suggest the drop rates by material type vary in any statistical way.

Can I ask another 2 questions about the drop rates?

1. When refining to produce these figures, did you refine 1 stack at a time, or refine all stacks in 1 operation?
2. My reading on this forum and others doesn't give any definite answer on whether refining all stacks in 1 operation actually causes the game to calculate the drop rate per stack or over the entire amount, so do you know which the game actually does?

Logic suggests that refining entire amounts instead of per stack would be more risky, because if the RNG is bad, the entire amount yields fewer grains, or if the RNG is good, we get more grains. On the other hand, refining 1 stack at a time would tend to average the RNG and produce a more consistent result. Kind of like a risky (but potentially very rewarding) investment, vs a safe investment.

I haven't done enough refining to know the answers to those questions, as I've only been crafting for about 6 months now, so I'd appreciate your learned feedback.

It doesn't matter how you refine. The game still calculates it one refine at a time, it will just do the calculation 10 times, 100 time, up to 1000 times. It's not like it takes one roll and multiplies it by the number of refines you did. It's not like it is taking 1 die roll and giving you that number 100 times... it's rolling 100 dice all at once and giving you what each individual one lands on. The "RNG" is already smoothed out.

I have detailed tabs on my spreadsheet linked in my signature of pre-multicraft (when you had to do it one refine at a time) and post-multicraft. The drop rates are the same. (Meticulous disassembly changed the drop rates, and that was introduced after multi-refining was a thing, so if you're looking at pre-multicraft to post-meticulous disassembly, you will see a change, but not due to the refining change, due to meticulous disassembly)

tl,dr. Save your time, refine all at once.

Thanks again for the information.

It seems there are some ESO players saying on internet forums that you get better results from refining a stack at a time. I'm happy to know it makes no difference, because refining a stack at a time is a bit onerous.

Nestor · June 2023

vsrs_au wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

vsrs_au wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

vsrs_au wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

The node has a 50% chance of being at your crafting level and the material that would be used at that level (level 1-10 for BS, or 1-5 for jewelry), and 50% being at your character level and the material that would be used there.

Jewelry nodes and blacksmithing nodes share spawn points.

Anecdotally it's about a 25% chance to be a jewelry, and a 75% chance to be a blacksmithing. But this may be due to a selection bias, as I think people are more likely to get a jewelry node than they are a blacksmithing node if they randomly see a node, leaving a surplus of blacksmithing nodes.

Thanks for the great (and quick) answer, it really helps!

Off-topic, but related: I also read somewhere (here or reddit, I forget which) that pewter dust has a higher chance of dropping chromium grains when refined than platinum dust - is there any truth to this ?

No. The drop rates while refining are only affected by the level of your extraction passive and the Meticulous Disassembly CP star. With everything maxed, you have a 45% chance of getting any temper. Then it's weighted 6:5:3:2 for Green:Blue:Purple:Gold

Edit: Just because I've wanted to do it for a while (and to continue to fight refining misinformation on the forums). I went onto the PTS to test.

There is no evidence to suggest the drop rates by material type vary in any statistical way.

Can I ask another 2 questions about the drop rates?

1. When refining to produce these figures, did you refine 1 stack at a time, or refine all stacks in 1 operation?
2. My reading on this forum and others doesn't give any definite answer on whether refining all stacks in 1 operation actually causes the game to calculate the drop rate per stack or over the entire amount, so do you know which the game actually does?

Logic suggests that refining entire amounts instead of per stack would be more risky, because if the RNG is bad, the entire amount yields fewer grains, or if the RNG is good, we get more grains. On the other hand, refining 1 stack at a time would tend to average the RNG and produce a more consistent result. Kind of like a risky (but potentially very rewarding) investment, vs a safe investment.

I haven't done enough refining to know the answers to those questions, as I've only been crafting for about 6 months now, so I'd appreciate your learned feedback.

It doesn't matter how you refine. The game still calculates it one refine at a time, it will just do the calculation 10 times, 100 time, up to 1000 times. It's not like it takes one roll and multiplies it by the number of refines you did. It's not like it is taking 1 die roll and giving you that number 100 times... it's rolling 100 dice all at once and giving you what each individual one lands on. The "RNG" is already smoothed out.

I have detailed tabs on my spreadsheet linked in my signature of pre-multicraft (when you had to do it one refine at a time) and post-multicraft. The drop rates are the same. (Meticulous disassembly changed the drop rates, and that was introduced after multi-refining was a thing, so if you're looking at pre-multicraft to post-meticulous disassembly, you will see a change, but not due to the refining change, due to meticulous disassembly)

tl,dr. Save your time, refine all at once.

Thanks again for the information.
It seems there are some ESO players saying on internet forums that you get better results from refining a stack at a time. I'm happy to know it makes no difference, because refining a stack at a time is a bit onerous.

Just refine what you have. It will all work out. Personally, i do at least 200 as i am likely to get at least one gold temper. Although, i have pulled 3 from a 60 stack (yay!), and of course none from 200 has happened too (sad....)

Usually i wait until i have 1000 or more, at least then i am assured of getting some Gold Tempers. Helps psychologically.