How many loot boxes to get the 3 radiant mounts?

FlopsyPrince · June 2022

So how many loot boxes would you need to buy (including spending the Crown Gems you would get) to obtain the 3 top mounts, assuming that was your goal? Yes, your RNG may suck, but what would be an expected amount, or maximum if you want to figure that out?

Just curious due to the other discussion on loot boxes mentioned percentages and real costs.

NOTE: Please do not debate loot boxes here, just the "how many" question. The other thread has enough of the argument on them.

RisenEclipse · June 2022

Well imo... and according to my current rng when it comes to crates, along with the years playing this game... Take a month worth of wages. Triple that, and you MIGHT get a radiant. Lol

ZOS_Hadeostry · June 2022

Greetings,

After further review we have decided to move this thread to a category we think is more appropriate for this topic.

Thank you for your understanding.

FlopsyPrince · June 2022

RisenEclipse wrote: »

Well imo... and according to my current rng when it comes to crates, along with the years playing this game... Take a month worth of wages. Triple that, and you MIGHT get a radiant. Lol

I got the purple horse a while back when I decided to buy some Crowns and then crates at the sale at the time, so you don't have to go this high. At least not if you make a decent amount. Would be tougher on minimum wage.

whitecrow · June 2022

I don't know how this can be answered. You could get it in 3 boxes if you were that lucky. (I'm not sure if it's possible to get more than one in a box.)

FlopsyPrince · June 2022

whitecrow wrote: »

I don't know how this can be answered. You could get it in 3 boxes if you were that lucky. (I'm not sure if it's possible to get more than one in a box.)

I am looking for "statistically likely". Of course you COULD get them in 3 boxes, but that is extremely unlikely. How many boxes to open, max, with Crown Gems you would likely get (if you sell all stuff back - I would never pay Crowns for most things you get). Then say 50-75% likelihood.

It would probably require a statistics nerd of some kind to answer this however.

Gray_howling_parrot · June 2022

FlopsyPrince wrote: »

So how many loot boxes would you need to buy (including spending the Crown Gems you would get) to obtain the 3 top mounts, assuming that was your goal? Yes, your RNG may suck, but what would be an expected amount, or maximum if you want to figure that out?

Just curious due to the other discussion on loot boxes mentioned percentages and real costs.

NOTE: Please do not debate loot boxes here, just the "how many" question. The other thread has enough of the argument on them.

There are a variety of websites that have done studies into "drop rates" for the radiant apex mount. One that i've seen recently is a 2% drop rate - I feel like this is higher than it really is, but that could just be my personal RNG lol. If that were the case, it would take roughly 50 crates for 1 which if you're purchasing 15 crates at a time (5000 crowns / 15 crates = 333.33 crowns per crate; thus you'd need roughly 16,666.67 crowns per radiant apex --> IF RNG IS NICE TO YOU ;P )

Gray_howling_parrot · June 2022

Jaustink wrote: »

FlopsyPrince wrote: »

So how many loot boxes would you need to buy (including spending the Crown Gems you would get) to obtain the 3 top mounts, assuming that was your goal? Yes, your RNG may suck, but what would be an expected amount, or maximum if you want to figure that out?

Just curious due to the other discussion on loot boxes mentioned percentages and real costs.

NOTE: Please do not debate loot boxes here, just the "how many" question. The other thread has enough of the argument on them.

There are a variety of websites that have done studies into "drop rates" for the radiant apex mount. One that i've seen recently is a 2% drop rate - I feel like this is higher than it really is, but that could just be my personal RNG lol. If that were the case, it would take roughly 50 crates for 1 which if you're purchasing 15 crates at a time (5000 crowns / 15 crates = 333.33 crowns per crate; thus you'd need roughly 16,666.67 crowns per radiant apex --> IF RNG IS NICE TO YOU ;P )

To put it in other words, you can buy ESO (base game) often for $10-20. Think about how much you get for that purchase. $10-20 for THE GAME. 16,666.667 crowns would require a 14,000 crown purchase ($99.99) + 3,000 crown purchase ($24.99). You're spending $125 for the CHANCE to get a radiant apex mount. Somewhere between 6-12x the price of the base game currently. Just food for thought

Your money your decision!

FlopsyPrince · June 2022

I am not asking whether it is cost effective, I am just asking how many crates should be necessary for a 50-75% chance, for example.

ghost_bg_ESO · June 2022

see the price in crown gems, count 5 gems on crate, that will be worst possible outcome...

SkaraMinoc · June 2022

In the past it's been ~300 crates for everything.

You'll need to extract gems and use them to purchase anything that didn't drop.

driosketch · June 2022

Well radiant apex mounts have about a 0.25% chance to drop according to some crate loggers I checked. Not a 25% chance, a 1 in 400 chance, and then it's about 1 in 3 to get a specific one.

So let's make some assumptions:
You never pull a radiant on luck.
Your bonus card rate is 1 in 6.
You only pull 1 blue per crate and 1 purple from the bonus.
Outfit pages and furnishings are first time must take collectables.
You extract everything else.

So after the first 90 crates to clear out the bottom tiers, you are getting 61 gems every six crates at least. To get the 5,300 gems to buy three radiant mounts outright, you might need to buy 551 crates (including first 90) if your luck remains bad.

Note, this isn't even the upper limit. You could still pull a random yellow or orange during the process and miss out on some gems, but to have that much bad good luck is statistically unlikely.

FlopsyPrince · June 2022

driosketch wrote: »

Well radiant apex mounts have about a 0.25% chance to drop according to some crate loggers I checked. Not a 25% chance, a 1 in 400 chance, and then it's about 1 in 3 to get a specific one.

So let's make some assumptions:
You never pull a radiant on luck.
Your bonus card rate is 1 in 6.
You only pull 1 blue per crate and 1 purple from the bonus.
Outfit pages and furnishings are first time must take collectables.
You extract everything else.

So after the first 90 crates to clear out the bottom tiers, you are getting 61 gems every six crates at least. To get the 5,300 gems to buy three radiant mounts outright, you might need to buy 551 crates (including first 90) if your luck remains bad.

Note, this isn't even the upper limit. You could still pull a random yellow or orange during the process and miss out on some gems, but to have that much bad good luck is statistically unlikely.

That is what I wanted. Confirms that I won't bother. I could, but I would prefer to do other things with my money even though I don't mind supporting the game a bit more than absolutely required, with ESO+.

Too bad for me.

Amottica · June 2022

The official response from Zenimax says there is a 2% chance to get an apex mount. That includes both radiant and the less sparkly normal apex mounts.

The link below has statistics for crate drops which includes a section for radiant apex mounts.

https://www.crowncrates.com/dragonscale

That site lists a 0.28% chance to get a radiant apex mount which I think is about 357 crates to get one radiant apex mount. That would be more than 1k crates to get three radiant apex mounts.

Even if lumping in the Dragonscale mounts the chance becomes 0.56% which comes out to about 179 crates to get one radiant apex mount or 536 crates to get three radiant apex mounts.

Even then it is not guaranteed as each crate is a separate dice roll where some will have better luck and some will have terrible luck. It is also not guaranteed one will get three different radiant apex mounts.

This does not include gems one would get in the process. Even considering the gems it is an expensive endeavor to get these mounts.