ive gotten three --- all three have been legs

About 40 boxes today with no Saberkeel. Odd. I'd usually get my daily 'keel within 2-5 boxes. No spider parts though, so that's a plus!

It's not a guaranteed drop.

I received my second Saberkeel page this morning.

RNG gonna RNG.

One day I got mine in the 120th box I opened. (All after reset, all on the same account.) The past two days it's been in the 50-60s range each day.

I don't know what the actual drop chance is, but I'd be willing to bet most players aren't reaching 50 boxes per day, much less 120. Persistence has its limits in most people, especially ones who have reasonable RL commitments.

If something's going to be limited to one per day, I hope they implement a failsafe going forward so a reasonable effort will grant it. Personally, I don't consider the equivalent of 18 characters' worth of writs (including jewelrycrafting) a "reasonable effort" to expect of the MMO event-going crowd. Most people have lives, and it's not reasonable to expect them to drop those for an in-game reward. It's been disappointing and demoralizing to hear in game how many people aren't getting their once-a-day drops in 20/30/40/50+ boxes. Those aren't the feelings an in-game event should be generating, because that turns off players of all levels of commitment and investment. (I've been playing every day for 5 years now, and it's disappointing to me to hear how disappointing this has been to newer and more veteran players alike.) I'm not saying everything needs to be granted very first box, because that risks devaluing it and making it feel like less of a reward, but there's a level of rationality that I feel is missing here. Somehow we're still at a place where many drops are too rare and subject to huge variance in RNG despite significant effort being put in (e.g. Saberkeel pages, Murkmire pet fragments) or far too common (e.g. Firepot parts, Companion style pages). They've had 8 years to find the middle ground.

virtus753 wrote: »

One day I got mine in the 120th box I opened. (All after reset, all on the same account.) The past two days it's been in the 50-60s range each day.

So the jubilee anniversary event is pretty much a bust for most players with commitments/responsibilities or a full time job!
50-120 boxes is an absolute joke for something that's supposed to be a celebration for the players that have stuck with you through the years.
What an absolute smack in the mouth for players who love the game but can't spend large amounts of time running through hoops for the style pages before they hit guild stores for eye watering prices after the event.

I do 56 boxes (8 alts x crafting writs)
4 days the page has been in the first 3 boxes, yesterday it was about 30.
First three were new, 4 & 5 were dupes.