I don't understand how Sealed Writs are awarded

krachall · December 2021

I have 5 max-level characters, all stamblades. All of them have all crafting skills maxed and max rank in the first ability in each skill. I'm CP 1350 or so.

There is one character that differs from the other four -- my dedicated crafter -- and the only difference is that he eats all my motifs and has all the crafting achievements. So basically I have 1 character with most motifs known and 4 characters with basically none.

So before and during the event, I've been saving my sealed writs to capitalize on the XP bonus. The day before the event ends, I'll complete them all with a 150% XP scroll running. All except Jewelry Crafting, of course, as they are laughably bad.

I don't recall how long I've been collected them but I did a quick count of how many each character has gotten over the last several weeks of doing daily crafting writs:

Crafter - 7 (5 Jewelcrafting)
Stamblade1 - 7 (6 Jewelcrafting)
Stamblade2 - 11 (8 Jewelcrafting, one gold woodworking!)
Stamblade3 - 8 (4 Jewelcrafting)
Stamblade4 - 8 (6 Jewelcrafting)

So my questions:

Why is my crafter who knows HUNDREDS more motifs than the other characters getting no more sealed writs then my others? Didn't ZOS explain that sealed writs are awarded based on the known motifs and achievements of that character?

Why am I getting so many worthless JC writs? 70% of my Sealed Writs just HAPPEN to be the most worthless items in the game? Come on.

Why was my only gold writ given to a character with literally ZERO motifs known?

EDITED: One more kick in the teeth from the RNG: The only gold writ i've gotten in over 40 sealed writs is for one of the few styles I don't know and the motifs for that style are 500k+. And not only is it the only one I have i don't know, it's the only repeat...actually triple repeat. That's right, I have THREE motifs for one of the few styles in the game I don't know.

etchedpixels · December 2021

Your numbers look much like mine. Over a long period (many months) my crafters seem to get slightly more but not a lot, and the randomness makes it a bit hit and miss.

For the jewellery if you have all the traits you get a 15% drop rate, with the base ones about 11% or so. Enchanting and Alchemy also work the same way with a 10% base and 15% max if you know all the runes/plants.

I'm not clear how many motifs you have to get from 10-15% or if 15% is a cap but I do wonder if 15% is all 90 odd motifs which would explain why jewellery and the like tend to dominate.

Jewellery ones are not entirely useless - purple jewellery writs are a great way to get the storage boxes as you progress in the game and can often be bought dirt cheap. Beyond that they are bit borderline, and the others just aren't worth doing.

tmbrinks · December 2021

1. Must do writs at max level to get master writs
2a. Alchemy is based off of knowing all 4 traits of the plants/mushrooms/etc on that character (~15% when all are known)
2b. Enchanting is based off of translating the runes (~15% when all are known)
2c. Clothing/Woodworking/Blacksmithing is based off of trait knowledge AND motif knowledge (~5% base, +3-5% for trait knowledge, +0-7% for motif knowledge. Seems to be HEAVILY weighted early on. That is, knowing 10 motifs each on 10 characters is a much better investment than learning 100 motifs on 1 character) (~15% seems to be the maximum)
2d. Jewelry is based off of trait knowledge only. (~15% when fully learned)
2e. Provisioning is based off of purple and gold recipes known. (Probably 15% as well, but I've been doing lower level ones forever.
3. The amount and level of the master writ is 100% random. The above knowledge has NO bearing on whether you get a gold or purple (or blue if jewlery) master writ, and what amount of vouchers.

Edit for more info.

These are my results (by account) for over 200,000 writs completed.

There is a clear increase between my main account and the alt account.

Both accounts have all alchemy/enchanting/jewelry knowledge, and drop rates are the same. (within 0.2% of one another)

Main account is all 9-trait, and most know multiple motifs (10+, 5 GMCs) whereas alt account is all 8-trait (no nirnhoned), and only know 2-3 motifs (cheap event ones), and there is a clear difference for WW/Cloth/BS master writ drop rates. (>1% difference)

Provisioning is not really worth looking at for a multitude of reasons.

Fennwitty · December 2021

Jewelry, Alchemy and Enchanting master writs do appear to come up more frequently than the other types, in my experience.

It sticks out especially with Jewelry since they're currently the least desirable type to receive. I routinely need to get rid of jewelry writs.

Although I haven't kept such good track myself.

The RNG in this game is extraordinarily "streaky" in my experience.

EDIT: This makes sense based on tmbrinks observation above about known motifs. Jewelry, Alchemy and Enchanting have nowhere near the (ever-increasing) number of 'things' to learn.

Fennwitty · December 2021

tmbrinks wrote: »

1. Must do writs at max level to get master writs
2a. Alchemy is based off of knowing all 4 traits of the plants/mushrooms/etc on that character (~15% when all are known)
2b. Enchanting is based off of translating the runes (~15% when all are known)
2c. Clothing/Woodworking/Blacksmithing is based off of trait knowledge AND motif knowledge (~5% base, +3-5% for trait knowledge, +0-7% for motif knowledge. Seems to be HEAVILY weighted early on. That is, knowing 10 motifs each on 10 characters is a much better investment than learning 100 motifs on 1 character) (~15% seems to be the maximum)
2d. Jewelry is based off of trait knowledge only. (~15% when fully learned)
2e. Provisioning is based off of purple and gold recipes known. (Probably 15% as well, but I've been doing lower level ones forever.
3. The amount and level of the master writ is 100% random. The above knowledge has NO bearing on whether you get a gold or purple (or blue if jewlery) master writ, and what amount of vouchers.

Edit for more info.

These are my results (by account) for over 200,000 writs completed.

There is a clear increase between my main account and the alt account.

Both accounts have all alchemy/enchanting/jewelry knowledge, and drop rates are the same. (within 0.2% of one another)

Main account is all 9-trait, and most know multiple motifs (10+, 5 GMCs) whereas alt account is all 8-trait (no nirnhoned), and only know 2-3 motifs (cheap event ones), and there is a clear difference for WW/Cloth/BS master writ drop rates. (>1% difference)

Provisioning is not really worth looking at for a multitude of reasons.

On the same subject -- are upgrade mats rewarded using the same formula as master writs?

Way back years ago a dev said something like the quality of upgrade materials you get as a turnin reward were related to traits known/recipes known.

Is it still the same process with the master writs (meaning the writs themselves are a 'reward')?

Naftal · December 2021

It doesn't care about motifs. It cares about related achievements. There aren't really many achis relating to jewelrycrafting since they don't use any style so it's easy to get the same chance for all chars.

DarcyMardin · December 2021

I deliberately don’t research any more than the three basic jewelry traits on my alts because the last thing I need is more jewelry writs (I usually trash them). My master crafter knows a ton of motifs and gets the most master writs, but I still seem to get far too many that I can’t do because there are now so many darn motifs in the game.

TequilaFire · December 2021

It is a given that the writ that drops will be for a motif you don't have even if you have most motifs.

jedtb16_ESO · December 2021

TequilaFire wrote: »

It is a given that the writ that drops will be for a motif you don't have even if you have most motifs.

no, it isn't. so far i have 8 writs that i can't do because i don't have the motif. i have completed more than a 1000 master writs.

tmbrinks · December 2021

Fennwitty wrote: »

tmbrinks wrote: »

1. Must do writs at max level to get master writs
2a. Alchemy is based off of knowing all 4 traits of the plants/mushrooms/etc on that character (~15% when all are known)
2b. Enchanting is based off of translating the runes (~15% when all are known)
2c. Clothing/Woodworking/Blacksmithing is based off of trait knowledge AND motif knowledge (~5% base, +3-5% for trait knowledge, +0-7% for motif knowledge. Seems to be HEAVILY weighted early on. That is, knowing 10 motifs each on 10 characters is a much better investment than learning 100 motifs on 1 character) (~15% seems to be the maximum)
2d. Jewelry is based off of trait knowledge only. (~15% when fully learned)
2e. Provisioning is based off of purple and gold recipes known. (Probably 15% as well, but I've been doing lower level ones forever.
3. The amount and level of the master writ is 100% random. The above knowledge has NO bearing on whether you get a gold or purple (or blue if jewlery) master writ, and what amount of vouchers.

Edit for more info.

These are my results (by account) for over 200,000 writs completed.

There is a clear increase between my main account and the alt account.

Both accounts have all alchemy/enchanting/jewelry knowledge, and drop rates are the same. (within 0.2% of one another)

Main account is all 9-trait, and most know multiple motifs (10+, 5 GMCs) whereas alt account is all 8-trait (no nirnhoned), and only know 2-3 motifs (cheap event ones), and there is a clear difference for WW/Cloth/BS master writ drop rates. (>1% difference)

Provisioning is not really worth looking at for a multitude of reasons.

On the same subject -- are upgrade mats rewarded using the same formula as master writs?

Way back years ago a dev said something like the quality of upgrade materials you get as a turnin reward were related to traits known/recipes known.

Is it still the same process with the master writs (meaning the writs themselves are a 'reward')?

Upgrade mats only depend upon the level of writ that you do. It's about 3% at level 1 to about 30% at level 10 (for gold mats that is). I personally haven't done enough of those writs at low levels to know the drop rate.

For Jewelry. As you level up, the drops change. At level 1, you have about a 50% chance of getting a grain (and they're about 25%/25% green/blue), at level 5, you have a 100% chance of a grain (10%/35%/30%/25% green/blue/purple/gold), about 13% chance of a double drop, and about a 1% chance of getting a full plating.

tmbrinks · December 2021

Naftal wrote: »

It doesn't care about motifs. It cares about related achievements. There aren't really many achis relating to jewelrycrafting since they don't use any style so it's easy to get the same chance for all chars.

It is looking at the achievements associated with those things that I mentioned.

Knowing all 14 pages of a motif (to unlock the achievement) most definitely increases the drop rate of master writs. It was explicitly stated as such in the update that introduced master writs to the game.

virtus753 · December 2021

For Provisioning, does knowing 100 recipes for Recipe Compendium help?

I would think so, since it’s a related achievement, but it can be earned with no purple or gold recipes. The max possible chance of getting a provisioning master writ seems much lower than the max possible chances of getting any other type anyhow, so maybe it’s hard to see any effect from the one achievement.

tmbrinks · December 2021

virtus753 wrote: »

For Provisioning, does knowing 100 recipes for Recipe Compendium help?

I would think so, since it’s a related achievement, but it can be earned with no purple or gold recipes. The max possible chance of getting a provisioning master writ seems much lower than the max possible chances of getting any other type anyhow, so maybe it’s hard to see any effect from the one achievement.

The wording in the original introduction on provisioning master writs said "number of purple and gold recipes known"

That's what I go off.

virtus753 · December 2021

tmbrinks wrote: »

virtus753 wrote: »

For Provisioning, does knowing 100 recipes for Recipe Compendium help?

I would think so, since it’s a related achievement, but it can be earned with no purple or gold recipes. The max possible chance of getting a provisioning master writ seems much lower than the max possible chances of getting any other type anyhow, so maybe it’s hard to see any effect from the one achievement.

The wording in the original introduction on provisioning master writs said "number of purple and gold recipes known"

That's what I go off.

Thank you!

tmbrinks · December 2021

virtus753 wrote: »

For Provisioning, does knowing 100 recipes for Recipe Compendium help?

I would think so, since it’s a related achievement, but it can be earned with no purple or gold recipes. The max possible chance of getting a provisioning master writ seems much lower than the max possible chances of getting any other type anyhow, so maybe it’s hard to see any effect from the one achievement.

One thing to add, this is the drop rate of provisioning master writs on my main character, the only one to know all the gold and purple recipes in the game (other than the 150% war torte, but I have doubts that contributes), and has been doing max level writs. This is 509 days worth of data.

So, I'm guessing the rate is also about 15% when maxed out, it's just very difficult to do so.

My other characters that know most of the recipes are between 11-14% themselves.

(In my data, I only have 6 of the 18 characters doing max level provisioning writs, as the rewards from the lower tiers for provisioning give recipes that are actually worth more, which is why the drop rate is so low in the data)