I’ve only seen more of the same underperforming (~33% instead of advertised ~50%) double drop rate since starting this thread. @ZOS_GinaBruno, is this apparent bug being worked on?
Apart from this issue, I’ve personally been very happy with the new CP system

I did a quick run after maintenance to see if anything had changed but I'm still not getting the full 50% out of 217 nodes only 34.5% where double.

My friend kept track of 1000 nodes because we both thought it was being weird as well and he got 40 percent double drop rate for most node types so it was about 10 percent less for most types for 1000 sample size.

Brrrofski wrote: »

You can't really count how many nodes you have collected, assign a percentage to it and say it's less than 50%.

A 50% chance is for each node. So yeh, it could work out that out of 1000 harvests you get double nodes 40% of the time, but it also mean you could get lucky and get double nodes 100% of the time. But it doesn't mean that it should be 50%.

Like the probability of flipping a coin 100 times and getting exactly 50 heads and 50 tails actually works out to be 8%. Can't remember the maths, but remembered hearing it somewhere.

But if 100 players all flip 100 coins and they all get between 25 and 40 heads that would be very statistically significant. Significant enough to at least look into the situation.

This isn't just a few flips we're talking about at this point. It's thousands of points of data. While it's highly unlikely to be exactly a 50/50 split, the numbers we're seeing here are far enough off that the likelihood of it being just RNG is becoming smaller and smaller. After thousands of nodes, we could see 48/52 or 51/49 or even 45/55. A large amount of data pools are looking much closer to 33/67. That is astronomically unlikely to happen on a large scale to many players while nobody so far is noting the opposite situation of having a larger amount of double nodes and a small amount of singles. Some of this can be attributed to confirmation bias, but that's why we're gathering more data. People aren't necessarily saying anything is definitely broken, but this thread is gathering evidence so that ZOS can look at the numbers behind the scenes that we don't have access to. We need to harvest and record thousands of points of data. They need to look at a few lines of code to confirm any issues.

Ackwalan wrote: »

From my own experience, there seems to be a diminishing return. I save all the crafting surveys I get during the week and do them all at once. What I have noticed, at the start of doing them it is very close to 3 out of 6, but by the last one it will be 1 out of 6. There does seem to be an anti-farming code in affect that reduces the chance of success the more you do.

Interesting. If that’s the case, the tooltip is untruthful and needs to be corrected. 50% is 50%, not 50%* (*until the devs have decided you’ve gotten too much).

erdbeerheld wrote: »

Below are my current "stats" for collecting surveys:


The actual % should be slightly lower, because I did collect regular nodes as well (negligible, only ones that are next/near a survey). so the raw mats collected numbers have both survey nodes as well as regular nodes included. but the percentage is calculated under the assumption, that only survey nodes were collected. (I just noted down number of surveys and amount of raw mats before I started a session, and the same after I finished the session. the rest is just simple calc with the fixed vars on the right)

What I did notice during the survey collection sessions is, that not only the housing mats seem to be affected by the cp perk, but also the more trivial items like worms and crawlers. so in order to get a more accurate percentage for that perk, I would have to look at and log every drop from a node, including housing and trivial stuff.

Survey nodes can’t drop furnishing mats or worms, though. Only non-survey normal nodes can.

Or did I misunderstand?

This star is definetely NOT working for Surveys. I'm not getting 50% of nodes in surveys by faar. It feels like old 10%. Nodes however feel better. I might start keeping track though.

erdbeerheld wrote: »

virtus753 wrote: »

Survey nodes can’t drop furnishing mats or worms, though. Only non-survey normal nodes can.
Or did I misunderstand?

They definitely drops worms, guts and crawlers. If I recall correctly, the jewelry survey nodes also drop titanium dust. So where i am getting with that is, that there are other items coming out of the node than pure raw mats for that profession. and depending on how the 50% dice is being rolled, these additional items may water down the 50% for the actual raw mats.

my above stats were only aiming at to see if the cp perk is beneficial, and for me it definitely is. and it is a lot more than the old 10% passive.

in order to get a more accurate analysis of the 50%, the statistics would need to look at ALL items from a node, and if they are doubled or not. but I wont do that manually, only if there would be an addon to track it.

The 50% chance is for a 50% chance of a "second pull" of the node.

Since you are guaranteed to get the actual item in the node, this would not be "watered down" and should be at 50%. And since you get 3 or 4 mats from a node (blacksmithing for example), the double pulls can give you 6, 7, or 8 resources. (or for surveys, it's 18 or 20 in a normal, so "double" can give you 36, 38, or 40)

Now, if for example, you had a 50% chance of getting worms from a cloth node, you only have a 25% chance of getting "double worms" from the node, a 25% chance of getting "no worms" and a 50% chance of getting "single worms" pull from the node. This is because the bonus items are not guaranteed.

VaranisArano wrote: »

I started recording just the pure water nodes today so there was only one item in the node to be impacted by Plentiful Harvest. Waters give 2-3 on an undoubled node, 4-6 on a doubled node.

Tiny data set so far, but:

Doubled: 40/110 (36%)
Not Doubled: 70/110 (64%)

Actually, with the nodes that cough up a second item, the chance to double is the same as the main item. Because the second item also has a chance to double. The second item chance is hovering around 30% in my casual observation.

Did this ever get fixed? Anyone got some new numbers?

@ZOS_GinaBruno Can we get a response on this? Multiple people have collected data and its been 4 months.
Its clearly not 50%.

@ZOS_Kevin Can you please respond to this?

Did we ever hear something about this?

Brrrofski wrote: »

You can't really count how many nodes you have collected, assign a percentage to it and say it's less than 50%.

A 50% chance is for each node. So yeh, it could work out that out of 1000 harvests you get double nodes 40% of the time, but it also mean you could get lucky and get double nodes 100% of the time. But it doesn't mean that it should be 50%.

Like the probability of flipping a coin 100 times and getting exactly 50 heads and 50 tails actually works out to be 8%. Can't remember the maths, but remembered hearing it somewhere.

If it is a 50% chance then a player will obtain very close to 50% over a long period of time or a large enough number of opportunities. The law of averages pretty much dictates this. I do not know if 222 nodes, 1000 nodes of 10000 nodes are sufficient but I would think at least 1k should get someone very close to 50%.

It's no accident that every time this topic comes up that there's no one that can say definitively that they have even close to a 50% double rate. It's always either "no I'm in the 30s or low 40s" or "well maybe over a larger sample size it evens out". It does not. I've had this perk since the day it came out and every day when I run my 5-10 surveys I typically hit 35-40% doubled nodes.