Is Malestrom Arena giving smart loot drops?

ImmortalCX · December 2020

I ran it two times with a dw/bow.

First run I got the DW weapons.

Second run I got the bow.

I can't be this lucky. It seems more likely they changed it to drop what you need.

redspecter23 · December 2020

It seems more likely it's just RNG.

If something was altered, you'd be hearing about this on a wide scale from many people. One isolated person with 2 points of data sounds like RNG.

iksde · December 2020

and my friend out of almost 100 runs o get his 1st non ice staff (he got 1 lighting, no any inferno) and good 40+ useless bows for him
he never played on single stamina build and he dont think about it

idk · December 2020

You are that lucky.

tomofhyrule · December 2020

Would be nice, but I think that's just luck. I know I took my SnB/SnB tank through nVateshran 17 times before it finally dropped the SnB weapon, by which time I completed almost every other set. And I know that's lucky that I only had to do it 17 times and not 10 times that.

Based on these stats from June, it looks like the drops are based on the weapon - as in a 1H weapon (axe, mace, sword, dagger) would drop the DW set, there are three options for staves and 2H, and then one each of bow, resto staff, and shield. If a 1H weapon or shield is picked, it goes through another RNG to make the other weapon.

Now if it works like that, I will say that is a bit tough on the SnB side. Despite that being the weapon set that doesn't matter what the weapon is (as in, DW and 2H both have passives based on whether you use and axe/mace/sword, and staves really differ based on fire/ice/shock), there are still technically 5 pieces in the set. That means that, for stickerbook purposes, it's significantly tougher to complete the SnB set than the others. Bows and resto staves drop at about the same rate, but they are their entire set. So if you're trying to get to the 25 crystal recontruct for e.g. an axe and a shield, it's got a 4x lower drop rate than the specific staff anyone wants.

I wonder if those drop rates will be modified now that there is a reason people will want to get specific SnB weapons.

Taleof2Cities · December 2020

My first four runs of vMA after the Markarth patch on Magicka Sorcerer:

1. Ice Staff
2. Inferno Staff
3. Bow
4. Lightning Staff

Still no Winterborn Ice Staff after 70+ runs on both vet and normal.

ImmortalCX · December 2020

I will say, that even not golden or with proper enchants, and losing a set bonus, dips goes up with the bow noticeably.

At least it's easy now, especially so with the ring. Time is the only thing keeping ppl from the weapons.

Faulgor · December 2020

ImmortalCX wrote: »

I will say, that even not golden or with proper enchants, and losing a set bonus, dips goes up with the bow noticeably.

At least it's easy now, especially so with the ring. Time is the only thing keeping ppl from the weapons.

You'd think so, but after countless runs and dozens of leaderboard positions with several classes, I'm still missing my perfected lightning staff - the one thing I was looking for ...

Sometimes, time is an eternity.

Inklings · December 2020

I've been keeping track of vMA drops since we got perfected version and also vVH drops since the markarth DLC was released. If youre interested in seeing my RNG here ya go:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XjhxqkFmSLZx-ZXBuLpe3buZA4rZJNvvwzwXfomgFQk/edit#gid=0

MindOfTheSwarm · December 2020

I’m not sure but I feel there is a game wide smart drop. I am a Frost Warden main and I got Frost Blackrose staff, Frost Maelstrom Staff and Frost Master Staff back to back in that order. I also nabbed 5 pieces Winterborn in the same run as my Frost Staff. That’s pretty crazy RNG if there isn’t something else going on.

Waffennacht · December 2020

Ive been thinking that the less runs you do the more varried the drops. Back in the day did 100 runs and got luke the same things over and over

Step away and then each drop was something new (like a week between)

Complete guess on my part ( cant think of the right word... Guess works)

Waynerx8 · December 2020

Been away 9 month's did the following:

First 2 x Maelstrom arena runs: Bow (precise) Inferno stave (sharpened).

First random daily COA1: BSW Inferno stave (sharpened).

So got really lucky.

ImmortalCX · December 2020

Waynerx8 wrote: »

Been away 9 month's did the following:

First 2 x Maelstrom arena runs: Bow (precise) Inferno stave (sharpened).

First random daily COA1: BSW Inferno stave (sharpened).

So got really lucky.

Maybe there is a returning player luck bonus.

I returned less than a week ago. They give you something to hook you.

akdave0 · December 2020

What i have discovered is changing your weapons to something you dont use gets you what you actually want. I wanted an inferno staff, I would switch to a sword and maul. opened chest, boom! Inferno staff.

Calm_Fury · December 2020

I love how those threads always end up filled with crazy conspiracy theories to explain simple RNG.

Just to clarify, the "smart loot" in ZOS' definition is just that thing that "weapons that can't proc the set's condition will not drop for that set". Meaning if a set needs melee damage to proc, it won't drop on staves, etc.

It is simply RNG. Keep running it enough times (not a dozen times, hundreds) and you will see most drops stabilize to the known percentage numbers from pure RNG, no mater what setup you use when you complete it.

ImmortalCX · December 2020

Calm_Fury wrote: »

I love how those threads always end up filled with crazy conspiracy theories to explain simple RNG.

Just to clarify, the "smart loot" in ZOS' definition is just that thing that "weapons that can't proc the set's condition will not drop for that set". Meaning if a set needs melee damage to proc, it won't drop on staves, etc.

It is simply RNG. Keep running it enough times (not a dozen times, hundreds) and you will see most drops stabilize to the known percentage numbers from pure RNG, no mater what setup you use when you complete it.

Smart people are always trying to see patterns in things.

In another game I played, I figured out that the loot box "luck" was based on server time. Profit. Sometimes things are not just RNG, which is why we ask the question, to get more data to see if there is a pattern.

Its not a "crazy conspiracy theory". Its a person smarter than you trying to figure out if there is a pattern.

TwinLamps · December 2020

If I run for a bow I get destro staves
If I run for DW set I get S&B
If I seek 2h stam weapon its resto staff for me.
Yes, smart loot for sure.

Everest_Lionheart · December 2020

There is a balance to everything, sometimes you are lucky, sometimes you a aren’t. Took me around 20 tries to get a maelstrom inferno (it dropped on Stamden) and another 20 tries to get a bow which dropped on a magplar run. That RNG is OK, not ideal but OK.

Now here come the fun part. I got a Siroria inferno on my first ever nCR run and a FG inferno on my second ever run on nSS when playing my Stamden. I got a masters inferno on my second try in vDSA on my MagDK. I got the master architect inferno staff on my second run with Stamden.

And then there are the things that are just silly like the BSW staff, I’m not even sure it exists. I’ve taken 5 toons through there (stam and mag) countless times, has to be close to 100 runs, no staff. Medusa too me upwards of 40+ and I got both the lightning and the inferno on the same run out of chests (take that speed runners, once you have treasure hunter passive always and I mean always look for chests in the dungeons you are farming equipment.)

Speaking of Arx corinium it’s usually got a minimum 3 chests, and as many as 5 if you know where to look. People killing that final boss and bailing out of the instance are missing out on one half the time and possibly 1-2 heavy sacks. Run towards the exit after the final boss, fall off and go through the doorway at the bottom, half way up the spiral steps there is often a chest or heavy sack. After that continue back to the exit (you’ll have to jump from the top of the stairs back) and in the last room on the stars on the right by the skeleton sometimes there is also another heavy sack. GL Medusa farming, but now that you know, you know. The other chest locations I leave to you, but there’s also sometimes 2 after the initial add pull that every speed runner ignores.

Galarthor · December 2020

I am pretty sure game loot is smart. But in a way to keep you playing the game - i.e. you usually don't get what you are looking for. Keeping you engaged with game is all that MMOs are about. Question only is, how good ZOS is at predicting what you are looking for.

Calm_Fury · December 2020

ImmortalCX wrote: »

Calm_Fury wrote: »

I love how those threads always end up filled with crazy conspiracy theories to explain simple RNG.

Just to clarify, the "smart loot" in ZOS' definition is just that thing that "weapons that can't proc the set's condition will not drop for that set". Meaning if a set needs melee damage to proc, it won't drop on staves, etc.

It is simply RNG. Keep running it enough times (not a dozen times, hundreds) and you will see most drops stabilize to the known percentage numbers from pure RNG, no mater what setup you use when you complete it.

Smart people are always trying to see patterns in things.

In another game I played, I figured out that the loot box "luck" was based on server time. Profit. Sometimes things are not just RNG, which is why we ask the question, to get more data to see if there is a pattern.

Its not a "crazy conspiracy theory". Its a person smarter than you trying to figure out if there is a pattern.

That is not being smart. This is actually a pretty well know human tendency: https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Apophenia

As I said, multiple people have ran those arenas hundreds, if not thousands, of times logging the drops. Every single time all drops converge to around the same known probabilities no matter what spec/weapons are used on the run.

But to each its own. If you think this helps you, go ahead. At the very least it will work as an extra motivation to the boring grind that is vMA.

FrancisCrawford · December 2020

The first four times I ran it recently (all on magicka characters) I got 3 DW sets.

I just got my first bow in 12 - 15 tries this evening, on an Argonian magden.

Waffennacht · December 2020

Calm_Fury wrote: »

ImmortalCX wrote: »

Calm_Fury wrote: »

I love how those threads always end up filled with crazy conspiracy theories to explain simple RNG.

Just to clarify, the "smart loot" in ZOS' definition is just that thing that "weapons that can't proc the set's condition will not drop for that set". Meaning if a set needs melee damage to proc, it won't drop on staves, etc.

It is simply RNG. Keep running it enough times (not a dozen times, hundreds) and you will see most drops stabilize to the known percentage numbers from pure RNG, no mater what setup you use when you complete it.

Smart people are always trying to see patterns in things.

In another game I played, I figured out that the loot box "luck" was based on server time. Profit. Sometimes things are not just RNG, which is why we ask the question, to get more data to see if there is a pattern.

Its not a "crazy conspiracy theory". Its a person smarter than you trying to figure out if there is a pattern.

That is not being smart. This is actually a pretty well know human tendency: https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Apophenia

As I said, multiple people have ran those arenas hundreds, if not thousands, of times logging the drops. Every single time all drops converge to around the same known probabilities no matter what spec/weapons are used on the run.

But to each its own. If you think this helps you, go ahead. At the very least it will work as an extra motivation to the boring grind that is vMA.

Thing is; people made the exact claim about shuffle. People would post thread after thread saying it was dodging way too much. Others kept claiming "that's just RNG!"

Well turned out to be cheat engine.

Im very dubious about "R"nG in this game...

Edit: not saying its cheat engine lol, just that the idea of something random can be interpreted at any time.

Plus seeing as its a computer it does follow some algorithm to mimic true random

Athan1 · December 2020

Lucky.

Why do people even use arena weapons? They are trash bc they power up only one skill, which you are locked into using. Better to use something that benefits the entire build. My 2 cents

ImmortalCX · December 2020

Waffennacht wrote: »

Calm_Fury wrote: »

ImmortalCX wrote: »

Calm_Fury wrote: »

I love how those threads always end up filled with crazy conspiracy theories to explain simple RNG.

Just to clarify, the "smart loot" in ZOS' definition is just that thing that "weapons that can't proc the set's condition will not drop for that set". Meaning if a set needs melee damage to proc, it won't drop on staves, etc.

It is simply RNG. Keep running it enough times (not a dozen times, hundreds) and you will see most drops stabilize to the known percentage numbers from pure RNG, no mater what setup you use when you complete it.

Smart people are always trying to see patterns in things.

In another game I played, I figured out that the loot box "luck" was based on server time. Profit. Sometimes things are not just RNG, which is why we ask the question, to get more data to see if there is a pattern.

Its not a "crazy conspiracy theory". Its a person smarter than you trying to figure out if there is a pattern.

That is not being smart. This is actually a pretty well know human tendency: https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Apophenia

As I said, multiple people have ran those arenas hundreds, if not thousands, of times logging the drops. Every single time all drops converge to around the same known probabilities no matter what spec/weapons are used on the run.

But to each its own. If you think this helps you, go ahead. At the very least it will work as an extra motivation to the boring grind that is vMA.

Thing is; people made the exact claim about shuffle. People would post thread after thread saying it was dodging way too much. Others kept claiming "that's just RNG!"

Well turned out to be cheat engine.

Im very dubious about "R"nG in this game...

Edit: not saying its cheat engine lol, just that the idea of something random can be interpreted at any time.

Plus seeing as its a computer it does follow some algorithm to mimic true random

Exactly!