Random and unlucky. I purchased 10-12 or so packs of the Zaan + Thurvokun. So about 50-60 keys.

I was aiming for a Heavy Thurvokun shoulder, 1/6 odds is pretty good I thought. It also didn't hurt that I needed a Zaan light/heavy shoulder so why not.

I got 7-9 Medium Thurvokun, 1 Light Thurvokun, 1 Medium Zaan and on my 10th try I got the Heavy Thurvokun.

I didn't end up getting my Light or Heavy Zaan and I deconned like 7 Thurvokun in the process...

If you're not entirely in a rush to get a specific item, it's much better to do the 1 key boxes, the 5 key option is really for people who have spare keys and don't care to spend extra to get better odds at a specific part.. but I can't help but think about the 60 or so dlc shoulders I could of purchased. There are still others I needed, but just like poor gambling habbits, I kept rolling for what I needed...

Then I needed 50 transmute stones lol.

Thank god for transmutation. This was a much worse grind before it was available.

Oh 1 more thing I thought was interesting. Lets assume you have 100 keys, how would you go about spending them? What is really the odds on the boxes and if you knew, what would you choose? I think I counted 8 Dungeon DLC, so 16 total monster sets from the DLC vendor.

This is the probability you're working with when trying to get specific shoulder pieces:

1 key cost, 16 sets, 3 armor weights = 48 possible outcomes. 1 key gives you about a 2.08% chance to get the armor piece you want.

5 key cost, 2 sets, 3 armor weights = 6 possible outcomes. You have a 16.6% chance to get the armor piece you want.

So lets look at this probability in a perfect world where your guaranteed your item eventually. (It actually works a little differently in that the chances for a guaranteed sucess increase after each failure detailed at the bottom of the page).

(1 key boxes) 48 attempts, 48 keys= 1 item you wanted, 47 items you didn't.

• Key to item you wanted % chance value = 2.08%
• Key to item you didn't want % chance value = 97.9%

(5 key boxes) 6 attempts, 30 keys = 1 item you wanted, 5 items you didn't.

• Key to item you wanted % chance value = 3.3%
• Key to item you didn't want % chance value = 16.6%

If the game gave you 2 options and re-positioned the 5 key boxes in a way where it cost 1 key instead, what would you take?

"For every key spent, you have a 100% chance to get an item. If you needed a specific item, you have a 2% chance to get that item."

or

"For every key spent, you have a 20% chance to get an item or an 80% chance to get nothing at all. By taking this risk you gain a 1% increase to a total of 3% at the chance of getting a specific item you need."

Is that extra 1% chance worth it for getting 5x less items? Usually it isn't.. It's pretty rare that you only need 1 specific item, it's definitely more of a gamble and you can feel cheated very quickly when spending upwards of 50 keys. If for whatever reason your just sitting on 100+ keys and have nothing to earn, I guess it's a good option.

Now... if you're NOT relying on transmutation to get the proper trait, these chances divide by 8 (I don't think Nirn is included) which is just insane and you should never actually consider doing that. Trying to get the right trait on the right set in the right armor weight is a 0.26% chance with the 1 key boxes and a 2.08% chance with the 5 key boxes.

This would actually be how you calculate your chances of success over each failure (using 5 key boxes). You exponentially multiply the chances of not getting the item to figure out the chances of getting the item you want:

1st attempt: 0.84^1 = 84% chance of not getting the item. (16% chance to get the item)
2nd attempt: 0.84^2 = 0.7 (30% chance to get the item)
6th attempt: 0.84^6 = 0.35 (65% chance to get the item)
10th attempt: 0.84^10 = 0.17 (83% chance to get the item)
17th attempt: 0.84^17 = 0.05 (95% chance to get the item)

So in my previous comment case of 11 or so attempts. I was working against about an 85-88% chance to get the item I wanted before I actually got it. This showcases how RNG can be a real pain in the ass sometimes, but there are also people who get it on their first attempt and some who won't get it with 20+ attempts.

Makes me think about Fallout 3, I built my character in a way that made him very poor at Charisma/Speach checks. I remember there was a part in the story where you're speaking with the Radio host for the first time. I think my chances of getting through it was 15% and I thought hell.. thats not too bad, I'll just reload my saves to see what I get.

It tooke me 30 attempts or so. That is crazy when you think about the chances it takes to fail that many times at 15% similar to my above example on the 5 key boxes. You're practically guaranteed a win within 20 attempts if you consider 95% chance as very probable.