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Data on Dungeon Drop Rates
haelene
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Does anyone have current data or know an addon that tracks the drops in dungeons or trials?
I have been doing a lot of farming before the big nerf to sustain happens and I started to notice certain sets dropped significantly more than others in the same dungeon.I have a theory that the drops are weighted more heavily towards the sets that get the least use overall in the community but I'm aware I might be dealing with confirmation bias, so I was looking for hard data or a way to go about tracking it myself without doing it by hand.
I have been doing a lot of farming before the big nerf to sustain happens and I started to notice certain sets dropped significantly more than others in the same dungeon.I have a theory that the drops are weighted more heavily towards the sets that get the least use overall in the community but I'm aware I might be dealing with confirmation bias, so I was looking for hard data or a way to go about tracking it myself without doing it by hand.
3
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Raideen✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭Does anyone have current data or know an addon that tracks the drops in dungeons or trials?
I have been doing a lot of farming before the big nerf to sustain happens and I started to notice certain sets dropped significantly more than others in the same dungeon.I have a theory that the drops are weighted more heavily towards the sets that get the least use overall in the community but I'm aware I might be dealing with confirmation bias, so I was looking for hard data or a way to go about tracking it myself without doing it by hand.
I think there is another way to approach this.
If you study how the game is designed, and how its designed to funnel the player to the crown store (by keeping gold out of the players hands), then it would make sense that ZO$ would want sets that are undesirable to drop more than the desirable sets.
I cant think of a single set in game that is desirable that is cheap. Even crafted go for a good amount.
1 -
haelene✭✭✭✭✭
✭Does anyone have current data or know an addon that tracks the drops in dungeons or trials?
I have been doing a lot of farming before the big nerf to sustain happens and I started to notice certain sets dropped significantly more than others in the same dungeon.I have a theory that the drops are weighted more heavily towards the sets that get the least use overall in the community but I'm aware I might be dealing with confirmation bias, so I was looking for hard data or a way to go about tracking it myself without doing it by hand.
I think there is another way to approach this.
If you study how the game is designed, and how its designed to funnel the player to the crown store (by keeping gold out of the players hands), then it would make sense that ZO$ would want sets that are undesirable to drop more than the desirable sets.
I cant think of a single set in game that is desirable that is cheap. Even crafted go for a good amount.
While I appreciate your perspective, I'm specifically looking for hard data gathered by players - or a simpler way to do it myself. I'm looking for empirical proof. Theories about why sets would drop more than others are a whole other topic entirely (although I do have my own ideas about why that is).1 -
Raideen✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭Does anyone have current data or know an addon that tracks the drops in dungeons or trials?
I have been doing a lot of farming before the big nerf to sustain happens and I started to notice certain sets dropped significantly more than others in the same dungeon.I have a theory that the drops are weighted more heavily towards the sets that get the least use overall in the community but I'm aware I might be dealing with confirmation bias, so I was looking for hard data or a way to go about tracking it myself without doing it by hand.
I think there is another way to approach this.
If you study how the game is designed, and how its designed to funnel the player to the crown store (by keeping gold out of the players hands), then it would make sense that ZO$ would want sets that are undesirable to drop more than the desirable sets.
I cant think of a single set in game that is desirable that is cheap. Even crafted go for a good amount.
While I appreciate your perspective, I'm specifically looking for hard data gathered by players - or a simpler way to do it myself. I'm looking for empirical proof. Theories about why sets would drop more than others are a whole other topic entirely (although I do have my own ideas about why that is).
I agree with you, but I don't think there are reliable stats on drop rates. Zo$ seems to be extremely quiet on their drop rates. Generally when someone tries hard to hide something it's....well you get the idea. That is why I suggest another approach.
I'd love to be wrong and see a chart like WoWhead does for wow and the drop rates, but I don't think there is a website that collects or is allowed to collect the data. ESOhead used to exist, but shut it down....not sure why. Maybe ZO$ changed it so they could not gather data?!?1 -
starkerealm✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭Does anyone have current data or know an addon that tracks the drops in dungeons or trials?
I don't have an addon. However, long term experience has shown that ESO's RNG is extremely streaky. It's suspected that the seed used by the RNG is tied to your account ID somehow. (Hell, it might be using the Record Key as your seed.) So, this results in RNG that is very biased for the individual, but, simultaneously, fairly even across the board, when you get away from viewing things from a single account.4 -
Siohwenoeht✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭Does anyone have current data or know an addon that tracks the drops in dungeons or trials?
I have been doing a lot of farming before the big nerf to sustain happens and I started to notice certain sets dropped significantly more than others in the same dungeon.I have a theory that the drops are weighted more heavily towards the sets that get the least use overall in the community but I'm aware I might be dealing with confirmation bias, so I was looking for hard data or a way to go about tracking it myself without doing it by hand.
I think there is another way to approach this.
If you study how the game is designed, and how its designed to funnel the player to the crown store (by keeping gold out of the players hands), then it would make sense that ZO$ would want sets that are undesirable to drop more than the desirable sets.
I cant think of a single set in game that is desirable that is cheap. Even crafted go for a good amount.
Note to self: buy stock in Reynolds aluminum foil to supplement Orville Redenbacher holdings.
To the topic, my personal experience with eso's rng has been varied across the board. For materials I have extremely good luck when compared to some of the posts I've seen regarding gold mat drops. I average closer to 1 gold mat per 100 rather than the 200 that is widely accepted.
For dungeon gear my rate is abysmally and comically bad. I had time with the wife out of town and spent 10 hours at one session running coa for burning spellweave anything and only ended up with 3 pieces over that period.
Now on monster helms and shoulders, I tend to get correct weight and trait in 3-4 runs or chest openings.
Don't ask about vMA for me lol.
There is some weighted value to the rng but it's definitely not connected in any way to the crown store."It is a lovely language, but it takes a very long time saying anything in it, because we do not say anything in it, unless it is worth taking a long time to say, and to listen to." - Treebeard1 -
Raideen✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭Siohwenoeht wrote: »There is some weighted value to the rng but it's definitely not connected in any way to the crown store.
And this is where you are completely wrong.
The entirety of this game is designed to funnel the player to the crown store, that is their business model. If popular items drop often, that means they are sold often. If they are sold often, that means people are making more gold. If people are making more gold, they don't need to spend $170.00 on a house in the crown store, they can just get it with gold.
The goal is to get the average player (not the players who "play" the guild stalls) to make enough gold to maintain playing in game, but not so much that they can EASILY purchase everything in game. This is why items are sold in the crown store in the first place, for a high price I might add.
Its not really hard to understand. So although your "conspiracy theory" comment is cute, it's really not and reflects poorly on your judgement.
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Siohwenoeht✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭Siohwenoeht wrote: »There is some weighted value to the rng but it's definitely not connected in any way to the crown store.
And this is where you are completely wrong.
The entirety of this game is designed to funnel the player to the crown store, that is their business model. If popular items drop often, that means they are sold often. If they are sold often, that means people are making more gold. If people are making more gold, they don't need to spend $170.00 on a house in the crown store, they can just get it with gold.
The goal is to get the average player (not the players who "play" the guild stalls) to make enough gold to maintain playing in game, but not so much that they can EASILY purchase everything in game. This is why items are sold in the crown store in the first place, for a high price I might add.
Its not really hard to understand. So although your "conspiracy theory" comment is cute, it's really not and reflects poorly on your judgement.
It's a completely bonkers theory. The game was designed without a cash shop and had a mandatory subscription. Add to that the fact that gold is absurdly easy to make in this game without using the guild traders and you have only conjecture left. I call it as I see it, and in this case it quacks."It is a lovely language, but it takes a very long time saying anything in it, because we do not say anything in it, unless it is worth taking a long time to say, and to listen to." - Treebeard8 -
Raideen✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭Siohwenoeht wrote: »Siohwenoeht wrote: »There is some weighted value to the rng but it's definitely not connected in any way to the crown store.
And this is where you are completely wrong.
The entirety of this game is designed to funnel the player to the crown store, that is their business model. If popular items drop often, that means they are sold often. If they are sold often, that means people are making more gold. If people are making more gold, they don't need to spend $170.00 on a house in the crown store, they can just get it with gold.
The goal is to get the average player (not the players who "play" the guild stalls) to make enough gold to maintain playing in game, but not so much that they can EASILY purchase everything in game. This is why items are sold in the crown store in the first place, for a high price I might add.
Its not really hard to understand. So although your "conspiracy theory" comment is cute, it's really not and reflects poorly on your judgement.
It's a completely bonkers theory. The game was designed without a cash shop and had a mandatory subscription. Add to that the fact that gold is absurdly easy to make in this game without using the guild traders and you have only conjecture left. I call it as I see it, and in this case it quacks.
WAS...was....lets focus on that for a moment, because WAS is key here. You are living in the past, not accepting current data. The game has changed DRASTICALLY since its failed launch (failed is also important, because it dictates why changes where made).
It is undeniable that the game is designed and revolves around the crown store. Its so obvious I am dying here laughing at your observational acuity, or lack of.
If gold was flowing out of peoples pockets like water, there would be no need for ZO$ to sell houses on the crown store.3 -
starkerealm✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭Siohwenoeht wrote: »Siohwenoeht wrote: »There is some weighted value to the rng but it's definitely not connected in any way to the crown store.
And this is where you are completely wrong.
The entirety of this game is designed to funnel the player to the crown store, that is their business model. If popular items drop often, that means they are sold often. If they are sold often, that means people are making more gold. If people are making more gold, they don't need to spend $170.00 on a house in the crown store, they can just get it with gold.
The goal is to get the average player (not the players who "play" the guild stalls) to make enough gold to maintain playing in game, but not so much that they can EASILY purchase everything in game. This is why items are sold in the crown store in the first place, for a high price I might add.
Its not really hard to understand. So although your "conspiracy theory" comment is cute, it's really not and reflects poorly on your judgement.
It's a completely bonkers theory. The game was designed without a cash shop and had a mandatory subscription. Add to that the fact that gold is absurdly easy to make in this game without using the guild traders and you have only conjecture left. I call it as I see it, and in this case it quacks.
WAS...was....lets focus on that for a moment, because WAS is key here. You are living in the past, not accepting current data. The game has changed DRASTICALLY since its failed launch (failed is also important, because it dictates why changes where made).
It is undeniable that the game is designed and revolves around the crown store. Its so obvious I am dying here laughing at your observational acuity, or lack of.
If gold was flowing out of peoples pockets like water, there would be no need for ZO$ to sell houses on the crown store.
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Siohwenoeht✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭Siohwenoeht wrote: »Siohwenoeht wrote: »There is some weighted value to the rng but it's definitely not connected in any way to the crown store.
And this is where you are completely wrong.
The entirety of this game is designed to funnel the player to the crown store, that is their business model. If popular items drop often, that means they are sold often. If they are sold often, that means people are making more gold. If people are making more gold, they don't need to spend $170.00 on a house in the crown store, they can just get it with gold.
The goal is to get the average player (not the players who "play" the guild stalls) to make enough gold to maintain playing in game, but not so much that they can EASILY purchase everything in game. This is why items are sold in the crown store in the first place, for a high price I might add.
Its not really hard to understand. So although your "conspiracy theory" comment is cute, it's really not and reflects poorly on your judgement.
It's a completely bonkers theory. The game was designed without a cash shop and had a mandatory subscription. Add to that the fact that gold is absurdly easy to make in this game without using the guild traders and you have only conjecture left. I call it as I see it, and in this case it quacks.
WAS...was....lets focus on that for a moment, because WAS is key here. You are living in the past, not accepting current data. The game has changed DRASTICALLY since its failed launch (failed is also important, because it dictates why changes where made).
It is undeniable that the game is designed and revolves around the crown store. Its so obvious I am dying here laughing at your observational acuity, or lack of.
If gold was flowing out of peoples pockets like water, there would be no need for ZO$ to sell houses on the crown store.
I had a big 'ol lost of things I was going to respond with but I'll try to keep this on topic.
Correlation does not equal causation. Your observations are:
There is a cash shop.
It operates on rmt.
Some items are expensive.
Some items can be exchanged for in game currency by way of gifting.
Some items are rng based in said shop.
Some in game items are rng based.
Some in game items are purchasable from other players with in game currency.
Some in game items are expensive due to totally player made up values.
I'm missing your jump from "the cash shop and the game mechanics both involve rng, therefore the must operate in concert.
That is what we called the logical fallacy of equivocation at University.
But to the OP, if I remember correctly, @SirAndy has some insight on how the rng actually works. Perhaps he'll chime in.Edited by Siohwenoeht on October 17, 2019 9:10AM"It is a lovely language, but it takes a very long time saying anything in it, because we do not say anything in it, unless it is worth taking a long time to say, and to listen to." - Treebeard4 -
witchdoctor✭✭✭✭✭
✭@Raideen
I'm having trouble getting a second AY Dagger.
Please point me to the item on the Crown Store that will replace that.10 -
haelene✭✭✭✭✭
✭Siohwenoeht wrote: »Does anyone have current data or know an addon that tracks the drops in dungeons or trials?
I have been doing a lot of farming before the big nerf to sustain happens and I started to notice certain sets dropped significantly more than others in the same dungeon.I have a theory that the drops are weighted more heavily towards the sets that get the least use overall in the community but I'm aware I might be dealing with confirmation bias, so I was looking for hard data or a way to go about tracking it myself without doing it by hand.
I think there is another way to approach this.
If you study how the game is designed, and how its designed to funnel the player to the crown store (by keeping gold out of the players hands), then it would make sense that ZO$ would want sets that are undesirable to drop more than the desirable sets.
I cant think of a single set in game that is desirable that is cheap. Even crafted go for a good amount.
Note to self: buy stock in Reynolds aluminum foil to supplement Orville Redenbacher holdings.
To the topic, my personal experience with eso's rng has been varied across the board. For materials I have extremely good luck when compared to some of the posts I've seen regarding gold mat drops. I average closer to 1 gold mat per 100 rather than the 200 that is widely accepted.
For dungeon gear my rate is abysmally and comically bad. I had time with the wife out of town and spent 10 hours at one session running coa for burning spellweave anything and only ended up with 3 pieces over that period.
Now on monster helms and shoulders, I tend to get correct weight and trait in 3-4 runs or chest openings.
Don't ask about vMA for me lol.
There is some weighted value to the rng but it's definitely not connected in any way to the crown store.
Hmm, interesting theory. Maybe I'll start tracking my drops overall to see if my account seems to favor anything in particular. I'll also track the wife's and my alt account to see if I see any drastic difference.
I'm surprised that no one has done this before though, at least not in a public way. I mean, I don't expect ZOS to release info about it (they won't even release chances for their paid lootboxes, I certainly don't expect odds for the non-paid RNG), but I would have figured players would have sorted this out.
See, I've been farming for a BSW Inferno Stave for months, and an Undaunted Infiltrator Lightning Stave for over a year. I know weapons are harder to get because you can only get them from the final boss and chests - but the RNG on these is bordering on insane. It should not take over a year and a steady 20+ runs a week to get any piece of a set. That coupled with my most recent observations of drops on sets like Scathing Mage and Blooddrinker and well... I don't know. I'm not sure how they expect us to keep up with their massive quarterly (sometimes more) overhauls if we can't even get a full set of something in one quarter.3 -
idk✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭Does anyone have current data or know an addon that tracks the drops in dungeons or trials?
I have been doing a lot of farming before the big nerf to sustain happens and I started to notice certain sets dropped significantly more than others in the same dungeon.I have a theory that the drops are weighted more heavily towards the sets that get the least use overall in the community but I'm aware I might be dealing with confirmation bias, so I was looking for hard data or a way to go about tracking it myself without doing it by hand.
I think there is another way to approach this.
If you study how the game is designed, and how its designed to funnel the player to the crown store (by keeping gold out of the players hands), then it would make sense that ZO$ would want sets that are undesirable to drop more than the desirable sets.
I cant think of a single set in game that is desirable that is cheap. Even crafted go for a good amount.
Considering we cannot buy sets in the crowns store (and many players who are active in the game have plenty of gold) this post makes pretty much no sense in the context of this threads OP.4 -
Rave the Histborn✭✭✭✭✭
✭Does anyone have current data or know an addon that tracks the drops in dungeons or trials?
I have been doing a lot of farming before the big nerf to sustain happens and I started to notice certain sets dropped significantly more than others in the same dungeon.I have a theory that the drops are weighted more heavily towards the sets that get the least use overall in the community but I'm aware I might be dealing with confirmation bias, so I was looking for hard data or a way to go about tracking it myself without doing it by hand.
I think there is another way to approach this.
If you study how the game is designed, and how its designed to funnel the player to the crown store (by keeping gold out of the players hands), then it would make sense that ZO$ would want sets that are undesirable to drop more than the desirable sets.
I cant think of a single set in game that is desirable that is cheap. Even crafted go for a good amount.
It's called supply and demand. If everyone wants the supply then the price will be high.0 -
idk✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭To OP, I do not think there is hard data anymore. However, I think all sets in a dungeon have the same chance of dropping. It would not make sense to go to the additional trouble of making one set drop more than others.
It used to be extremely rare to get a weapon for a specific set to drop as they only dropped from the last boss and competed with jewelry. Much has changed since then to make it more favorable for a weapon to drop but I think it is still on the low side which makes it frustrating.
Make sure to open all chests as they have a chance to drop a weapon as well. Also, farm with friends that are wiling to trade with you. Normal difficulty is best for farming gear except for master and vMA weapons as they only drop on vet.0 -
redlink1979✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭Conspiracy theories. lol
Maybe the problem is that people expect to get the desired item with the desired trait in the 1st attempt."Sweet Mother, sweet Mother, send your child unto me, for the sins of the unworthy must be baptized in blood and fear"- Sons of the Night Mother | VforVendetta | Grownups Gaming EU | English Elders [PS][EU] 2500 CP
- Daggerfall's Mightiest | Eternal Champions | Legacy | Tamriel Melting Pot [PS][NA] 2300 CP
- SweetTrolls | Spring Rose | Daggerfall Royal Legion | Tinnitus Delux [PC][EU] 2525 CP
- Bacon Rats | Silverlight Brotherhood | Canis Root Tea Party | Vincula Doloris [PC][NA] 2300 CP
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haelene✭✭✭✭✭
✭To OP, I do not think there is hard data anymore. However, I think all sets in a dungeon have the same chance of dropping. It would not make sense to go to the additional trouble of making one set drop more than others.
It used to be extremely rare to get a weapon for a specific set to drop as they only dropped from the last boss and competed with jewelry. Much has changed since then to make it more favorable for a weapon to drop but I think it is still on the low side which makes it frustrating.
Make sure to open all chests as they have a chance to drop a weapon as well. Also, farm with friends that are wiling to trade with you. Normal difficulty is best for farming gear except for master and vMA weapons as they only drop on vet.
I farm with my wife, alone, and with groups and know where every chest in Arx Corinium is. Every single one. I have been farming it for over a year 20+ times a week and not a single Undaunted Infiltrator Staff of any kind has dropped, let alone the one I need. Not one - for anyone in my group, whether that's a pug, my wife and I duo'ing it, or with my guilds.
I can do that dungeon in my sleep. Backwards probably. On vet and on normal. This is not an issue of knowing how to farm something.
That is only one example and in only one dungeon too. There are many others.
It actually would entirely make sense to "go through the trouble" (loot tables are fairly easy to edit). It keeps people farming, which keeps them playing, which keeps population up and makes the game look healthy on paper. For an MMO appearing healthy is invaluable.
That said, I can see that there isn't any data on this from others so far - which answers my question. I'll have to confirm this on my own. Thanks guys!4 -
haelene✭✭✭✭✭
✭redlink1979 wrote: »Conspiracy theories. lol
Maybe the problem is that people expect to get the desired item with the desired trait in the 1st attempt.
Lol, clearly you haven't read the entire thread. I'm not expecting anything on the first try. Not by a long shot.
Anyways, I got my answer. Nobody has tracked it yet.1 -
LadyAstrum✭✭✭✭✭
✭Siohwenoeht wrote: »Siohwenoeht wrote: »There is some weighted value to the rng but it's definitely not connected in any way to the crown store.
And this is where you are completely wrong.
The entirety of this game is designed to funnel the player to the crown store, that is their business model. If popular items drop often, that means they are sold often. If they are sold often, that means people are making more gold. If people are making more gold, they don't need to spend $170.00 on a house in the crown store, they can just get it with gold.
The goal is to get the average player (not the players who "play" the guild stalls) to make enough gold to maintain playing in game, but not so much that they can EASILY purchase everything in game. This is why items are sold in the crown store in the first place, for a high price I might add.
Its not really hard to understand. So although your "conspiracy theory" comment is cute, it's really not and reflects poorly on your judgement.
It's a completely bonkers theory. The game was designed without a cash shop and had a mandatory subscription. Add to that the fact that gold is absurdly easy to make in this game without using the guild traders and you have only conjecture left. I call it as I see it, and in this case it quacks.
So because the game was designed without a cash shop that means it's not at all possible for the later implementations to have the crown store in mind? I'd call you naive, but that would be rude of me.
~ "You think me brutish? How do you imagine I view you?" - Molag Bal #misunderstood ~2 -
EvilAutoTech✭✭✭✭✭
✭I only track the set I'm after when farming a dungeon. For instance, I could tell you that I never saw an Ebon girdle until my 177th trip through CoH and the my first cuirass came on my 302nd trip. I cannot tell you how many Lich and Leviathan pieces I collected and deconned from those runs.0 -
SirAndy✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭Siohwenoeht wrote: »But to the OP, if I remember correctly, @SirAndy has some insight on how the rng actually works. Perhaps he'll chime in.
ESO rng *is* heavily weighted ...
As for data to back that up, yes that does exist.
However, i'd like to keep my account active and playable, so i won't post anything here on the forums.
If you are somewhat capable with the search function here you can get all the pieces of information you need to verify this yourself. It's been discussed since beta.
Some of the more informative posts on the subject are hidden from the public and only available if you were/are a member of the Psijic Order beta test group.
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Starlock✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭witchdoctor wrote: »@Raideen
I'm having trouble getting a second AY Dagger.
Please point me to the item on the Crown Store that will replace that.
To better articulate some of the points Raideen is trying to make - because their general notion that this game is designed with the cash shop in mind is absolutely spot on - think about it this way.
What is the purpose that RNG serves in a role-playing game?
From the perspective of tabletop RPGs - the inspiration behind all computer RPGs - game masters use RNG for a few different reasons. One, being a GM is a lot of work and using randomness helps reduce the time we need to spend planning for encounters. Two, it can help tell the story of our worlds more dynamically in ways that entertain us as GMs as much as it entertains our players. The long and the short of it is that RNG is used as a tool to make the game more enjoyable for everyone involved.
Precisely the opposite is the case for many computer RPGs that implement RNG. In many computer RPGs, the only thing RNG does is create grind. MMOs in particular are infamous for this. Next, we can ask why MMORPGs use RNG poorly and create grind in their games. The answer is fairly obvious - to keep you playing the game. And why would a developer of an MMORPG want to keep you playing the game? To habituate you to playing the game regularly. In a word, to addict you to it. The more you play a game and the more you are addicted to it, the more you will be exposed to any monetization that game develops for you. That is why RNG exists in games like Elder Scrolls Online.
You're correct that there is no direct link between the RNG grinding of this game and the cash shop, but it is there. In some MMORPGs, the link is more explicit. You can buy progression for your character in the cash shop. There are plenty of examples of buying progression in the cash shop of ESO already, but they have (so far) stopped short of putting gear there. I would wager that will end sooner rather than later if they think they can get away with it. And considering they've gotten away with gamble crates, making events cash shop cows, monetizing the hell out of the outfit system and housing, along with freaking skill points and skyshards in the cash shop? Yeah. 'Nuff said.1 -
buttaface✭✭✭✭✭Ask raiders in this game, they will tell you straight up. Of course the loot tables are "massaged."
You will not be able to get such data to sufficiently evidence one way or the other, and there are almost certainly strong NDAs with stiff penalties in place on the company side, but YES, all the dungeon loot tables are not random, are weighted, as are the undaunted chests, at least the random ones. Can't speak to the new 5 key undaunted loot.
Weapons for less used/less desired sets drop in abundance... or we can go farm a BSW inferno staff...
I have just finished pushing five alts through undaunted from lvl 2-9 pugging numerous (5-15) normal pledges every day for 2-3 months. What I have found is that the first few times you run a dungeon, you get a random loot table, and can get a broad variety of drops. After a few runs per account, though, you are shifted to a harsher loot table where the unwanted pieces and dupe pieces drop over and over and over. You can still get desired pieces, but the drop chance is highly diluted. I have been in finance and markets 30 years, am well-familiar with cognitive bias, which I study as a hobby.
As one of DOZENS of possible examples I could post, but won't dilute the thread, after hundreds of Dark Shade Caverns runs... no exaggeration whatsoever... I got an Automaton Bow today and was shocked. That's -any- bow, not a bow with a desired trait. The odds against that happening on a randomly rolled table are enormous. To simplify (ignoring chests, ignoring bosses only drop this or that), let's say 5 loot rolls per run of a 42 sided (3 sets x 14 possible pieces) die. Further simplify to 1:8 based on that. Hell let's make it 1:10. Every ~ 10 runs you should get -a- bow, not a special bow with a particular trait, -any- bow of a given set in a given dungeon. Could get unlucky... but 100-200 runs?
Go and pump 1000 or so keys in Maj's random chest vendor item as I have, get back to us with the distribution of Swarm Mother and some of the other unwanted/unused sets to popular sets like Bloodspawn and Slimecraw.
It is -not- random, and using the slang RNG to describe the loot tables in most any MMO is bent, ESO is no exception. It is also not subject to any meaningful "proof" other than on the company side, and good luck with that. To be clear, I DON'T BLAME THEM. I would do the exact same thing if I published such a game, but it is what it is.3 -
buttaface✭✭✭✭✭To edit the above, the 1:14 in the post above may actually be a 1:17-18. Same result though.1
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buttaface✭✭✭✭✭I farm with my wife, alone, and with groups and know where every chest in Arx Corinium is. Every single one. I have been farming it for over a year 20+ times a week and not a single Undaunted Infiltrator Staff of any kind has dropped, let alone the one I need. Not one - for anyone in my group, whether that's a pug, my wife and I duo'ing it, or with my guilds.
This is another one, did similar all through 2019 until just last week, two inferno staves (still no lightning of course) dropped, which makes me wonder if the loot table weighting snarls and prevents certain drops from ever dropping, and they have some intern go and reset a database from time to time or with major patches? It also wouldn't surprise me if the loot tables were auto-adjusted algorithmically with little human interaction and -that- leads to problems that have to be reset from time to time.
Another funny one is Tempest Island. Go farm ANY destro or resto overwhelming staff other than the named lightning, and ironically unnamed lightning drops just fine. Ice, fire, resto? O no, if you don't get that first few runs, you aren't likely to get it for a good long time. I started offering 100k for non lightning destro/resto ages ago, never ever saw one, now I don't bother even bringing it up. No telling how many runs of that one in 2019.
Could go on and on. Anyone who thinks the loot tables in ESO aren't massaged is incredibly naive.
Edited by buttaface on October 17, 2019 8:06PM1 -
buttaface✭✭✭✭✭Siohwenoeht wrote: »Correlation does not equal causation. Your observations are:
That is what we called the logical fallacy of equivocation at University.
The above is what we call, after graduating from (an elite) University decades ago, a raging non sequitur. Parroting out "correlation does not equal causation" whether in the junior college social science class where one first learned it from an idiot professor holding a grade book over the class's head, or on a gaming forum, is not an argument, certainly not a useful one in the context of this thread.Edited by buttaface on October 17, 2019 8:08PM2 -
buttaface✭✭✭✭✭Siohwenoeht wrote: »I'm missing your jump from "the cash shop and the game mechanics both involve rng, therefore the must operate in concert.
Really? Does the notion, "more time in the store = more likely to buy something" fly all the way over your head? It's why the milk is in the back of grocery stores... or is that just another correlation?
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eso_lytw8✭✭✭starkerealm wrote: »Does anyone have current data or know an addon that tracks the drops in dungeons or trials?
I don't have an addon. However, long term experience has shown that ESO's RNG is extremely streaky. It's suspected that the seed used by the RNG is tied to your account ID somehow. (Hell, it might be using the Record Key as your seed.) So, this results in RNG that is very biased for the individual, but, simultaneously, fairly even across the board, when you get away from viewing things from a single account.
There is growing evidence that this is indeed the case. Many examples of VMA runs showing repeated drops with missing weapons that could not come from a distribution where the frequencies are the same for every player. I've demonstrated this using a chi-square goodness of fit test.
On dungeon drops let me repost an example I shared before....
"....back in the veteran days monster helms were a rare drop and could not be traded. The generally accepted drop rate was 25%. Well I had one Vet 16 character, one V5 and one V3...anyone remembering those days knows how hard it was to max a character back then. I was moving my V16 to a tank so I wanted a bloodspawn helmet. I ran spindleclutch day and night trying to get one...not a specific one mind you, but any one. It took me 44 tries before a single helmet dropped. I asked myself how is this even remotely possible? What caused me to really take notice was during this time I could run it on my V5 and V3 characters and get helmets of course the wrong level. One day out of the blue a helmet dropped, by then I was numb seeing person after person with a helmet for months on end. So I ran it again and what would you know another helmet, from that point on my V16 got a helmet just about every 4th time."
The evidence does suggest that it is actually character related and not account related so the good news is that now it is so easy to have multiple max level characters it is suggested that you should try running dungeons on different characters. And yes the character odds do appear to reset every 3-6 months which is why so many people report the curse ending and suddenly get the item they need repeatedly.
< Xbox NA PVE >1 -
idk✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭Siohwenoeht wrote: »I'm missing your jump from "the cash shop and the game mechanics both involve rng, therefore the must operate in concert.
Really? Does the notion, "more time in the store = more likely to buy something" fly all the way over your head? It's why the milk is in the back of grocery stores... or is that just another correlation?
Since I do not find the game designed to funnel me to the cash shop I can only expect the person you quoted is not easily swayed like a herd of cattle either. Maybe for some there is something in the actual game play related to farming weapons that drive them to the cash shop but it must influence the weak minded.1 -
Raideen✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭Does anyone have current data or know an addon that tracks the drops in dungeons or trials?
I have been doing a lot of farming before the big nerf to sustain happens and I started to notice certain sets dropped significantly more than others in the same dungeon.I have a theory that the drops are weighted more heavily towards the sets that get the least use overall in the community but I'm aware I might be dealing with confirmation bias, so I was looking for hard data or a way to go about tracking it myself without doing it by hand.
I think there is another way to approach this.
If you study how the game is designed, and how its designed to funnel the player to the crown store (by keeping gold out of the players hands), then it would make sense that ZO$ would want sets that are undesirable to drop more than the desirable sets.
I cant think of a single set in game that is desirable that is cheap. Even crafted go for a good amount.
Considering we cannot buy sets in the crowns store (and many players who are active in the game have plenty of gold) this post makes pretty much no sense in the context of this threads OP.
It makes perfect sense if you understand how the chain of events works.
ZO$ fundamentally wants to keep gold out of the average players hands. This is evident through all the gold sinks in game from horse riding to repairs to material costs for consumables which are necessary.
One way to keep gold out of the players hands is to ensure the "good" armor sets have low drop rates. This means that when a player goes to purchase one of these armor sets, they have to spend a fair amount of gold. In essence ensuring desirable armor has a low drop rate keeps them from flooding the market, which ensures a higher cost. Its a gold sink.
Between the armor gold sinks, and all the other nickel and dime gold sinks in game this keeps the average player from amassing tons of gold.
Gold is used to purchase houses, riding, furniture, motifs among others, but with the exception of riding those are all expensive...but the riding is not actually about the gold, its about only being able to purchase the skills one a day, making the trek to get your mount up to speed tiresome and boring (6 months straight with ZERO days not playing). That is how they drive the player to the crown store. Because riding slow sucks. Riding slow means not making it to the north dragon in time.
The more gold ZO$ keeps out of the players hands, the more players will RESORT to making purchases in the crown store.
Its really easy to follow and makes perfect sense in regards to the OP, if you understand cause and effect.0