Why are drops so bad for some players? (Resolved: finally got a Pellitene motif yay)

wishlist14 · July 2019

I'm not wanting to complain here. I'm just curious as to why Elsweyr zone chat is full of players selling Pellitine motifs and purple Elsweyr recipes and I do my Elsweyr dailies religiously and have not had a single Pellitine motif drop for me since the dragon dailies started. I also started the delve and boss dailies for elsweyr when they were first available and been doing those everyday. I still have not finished my collection.

As for Elsweyr recipes ive had 2 purple drop for me and they were both identical so i learned one and sold the other. I get a few greens and hardly any blue recipes but my friends and people on zone chat seem to get lots.

I know people say it's rng but I think it's something far more sinister 😛

Please zos gimme more motifs and recipes 🤗🤗🤗

I'm doing so many time consuming dailies lol im running out of times in my day to do my pledges.

Firstly I do all my riding lessons soI need to log in and out a few times which takes time
So basically I do my crafting writs on only 2 characters .
Then I do my 3 Elsweyr dailies...chasing dragons and waiting for boss spawns takes time.
Then i clear bags and decon gear etc
Then i do my thieves guild daily and DB daily
If im lucky i can fit in a couple of pledges or my pug trial but i have been running out of time due to real life comitments.

So my reason for sharing so much information here is to point out that the poor drop rate of say pellitine motif is a waste of time for me....real life time. If i got something every second day or so it would be more encouraging but to get nothing....😣😟😔😓

And to be clear I do not want to buy the motifs, im trying to save real money and ingame gold so it's not an option. I'm not rich. I haven't had as much time to farm since i was focusing on gearing my characters via pug trials.

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO · July 2019

Because the "R" in RNG is for random.

JKorr · July 2019

The Gremlins of rng do not smile upon you.

ezio45 · July 2019

wishlist14 wrote: »

I'm not wanting to complain here. I'm just curious as to why Elsweyr zone chat is full of players selling Pellitine motifs and purple Elsweyr recipes and I do my Elsweyr dailies religiously and have not had a single Pellitine motif drop for me since the dragon dailies started. I also started the delve and boss dailies for elsweyr when they were first available and been doing those everyday. I still have not finished my collection.

As for Elsweyr recipes ive had 2 purple drop for me and they were both identical so i learned one and sold the other. I get a few greens and hardly any blue recipes but my friends and people on zone chat seem to get lots.

I know people say it's rng but I think it's something far more sinister 😛

Please zos gimme more motifs and recipes 🤗🤗🤗

I'm doing so many time consuming dailies lol im running out of times in my day to do my pledges.

Firstly I do all my riding lessons soI need to log in and out a few times which takes time
So basically I do my crafting writs on only 2 characters .
Then I do my 3 Elsweyr dailies...chasing dragons and waiting for boss spawns takes time.
Then i clear bags and decon gear etc
Then i do my thieves guild daily and DB daily
If im lucky i can fit in a couple of pledges or my pug trial but i have been running out of time due to real life comitments.

So my reason for sharing so much information here is to point out that the poor drop rate of say pellitine motif is a waste of time for me....real life time. If i got something every second day or so it would be more encouraging but to get nothing....😣😟😔😓

And to be clear I do not want to buy the motifs, im trying to save real money and ingame gold so it's not an option. I'm not rich. I haven't had as much time to farm since i was focusing on gearing my characters via pug trials.

Heard a rumor that achievements or achievement points play a roll in drops. Just a rumor though, no evidence to back it up

Gandrhulf_Harbard · July 2019

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

Because the "R" in RNG is for random.

Actually its because the R in RNG is most definitely NOT for Random, no matter how much Devs try to pretend otherwise.

https://mmos.com/editorials/rng-isnt-random

Several games have admitted as much, with the unique player ID heavily influencing the outcome of an allegedly "random" roll. The so called "seed" element of the RNG equation.

Now, some games will use different "seeds" some may use more than one "seed" but the seed influences the outcome massively.

All The Best

JamilaRaj · July 2019

You basically answered it yourself; ZOS sells you busywork in lieu of actual gameplay and of course drop rate is bad, it is supposed to waste as much of your time as possible. Would be no longer dailies if you were done with them, right?

Pyr0xyrecuprotite · July 2019

@wishlist14
The main factor at work is that some players simply sell all motif pages that they find, especially for the first month or so after it becomes available. This is one of the better ways of getting gold, and since motif prices drop over time, they will be able to buy the pelletine pages for much less later on, than they earn now. Note that it is possible to farm motif pages by doing the dailies on multiple characters, if you have the time and nothing much else to do.

For furniture plans, I hear your pain and have had a similar experience. However, the same economic logic as above applies - since plan prices tend to drop over time, some people sell first and buy/learn plans (if they feel a need) later - and make a profit that way. It is possible to farm plans by continuously farming the containers in the Rimmen Palace and Two Moons temple courtyard (switch back and forth); travel to a guildmate in elsweyr in between if necessary. It's boring as heck but you may find a purple every couple of hours or so... Personally, I don't have the patience or time to do things that way!

wishlist14 · July 2019

Gandrhulf_Harbard wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

Because the "R" in RNG is for random.

Actually its because the R in RNG is most definitely NOT for Random, no matter how much Devs try to pretend otherwise.

https://mmos.com/editorials/rng-isnt-random

Several games have admitted as much, with the unique player ID heavily influencing the outcome of an allegedly "random" roll. The so called "seed" element of the RNG equation.

Now, some games will use different "seeds" some may use more than one "seed" but the seed influences the outcome massively.

All The Best

Well as far as seeds go...are you saying they reward their friends first? I was trying to understand how these seeds work if like that link says, drops are not random. Thanks for the reply, it was very interesting.

Linaleah · July 2019

wishlist14 wrote: »

Gandrhulf_Harbard wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

Because the "R" in RNG is for random.

Actually its because the R in RNG is most definitely NOT for Random, no matter how much Devs try to pretend otherwise.

https://mmos.com/editorials/rng-isnt-random

Several games have admitted as much, with the unique player ID heavily influencing the outcome of an allegedly "random" roll. The so called "seed" element of the RNG equation.

Now, some games will use different "seeds" some may use more than one "seed" but the seed influences the outcome massively.

All The Best

Well as far as seeds go...are you saying they reward their friends first? I was trying to understand how these seeds work if like that link says, drops are not random. Thanks for the reply, it was very interesting.

I don't think its friend based. i'm not sure WHAT its based on, but i've noticed that even across my account, my older account has awful rng, my newer account has pretty decent luck (but I'm not buying crates on it, it just.. gets various drops faster and more consistently, somehow - even with twitch crates, it would get more of them when there is a chance, vs my main account - not a prime taking priority either, as my main is the one connected to my amazon account)

as far as people selling every drop they get... what about those of us who get NO drops? cause that's been my experience so far. not. one. motif. from dragon dailies. NONE.

Haenk · July 2019

Remember there are lots of people around, so if RNG is 1 in 1000 and you have 5000 people around, 5 people will be able to offer something good. It's just that you see *these* guys, not the other 4995, who didn't receive purple stuff.

LadySinflower · July 2019

I also want to know why some players have the "good" purple furniture plans but I can't seem to get any. I see the same guy in zone chat almost every day spamming greens, blues, and purples. Tons of them! I've gotten about 3 purples but I see others getting the 4 Lions Elsweyr Fountain, either of the "throne" armchairs, the dividers, various beds, etc. I do all the Elsweyr dailies and when I'm finished I farm dragons, sometimes up to 60 a day. Instead of those "good" purples, I keep getting multiples of green plans like the spice displays, the walls, floors, stuff like that. One day I had 3 document pouches in a row drop the same treasure map and green plan! That sucks because my ratio of adventurer backpacks to document pouches is about 8:1. There was a certain candle sconce I wanted (blue), and I found it for a reasonable price at a guild trader and bought it. Today, just two days later, it dropped from a dragon. So I gave it to my SO who also wanted it but doesn't have time to farm dragons like I do. But you'd think after a month of almost daily dragons in that quantity, something really good would have dropped! As far as motifs go, I still haven't completed the Anequina set and have had just 2 Pelletine drops. Maybe it's because my interest isn't in selling them. I want to learn them on my main character. So I really don't understand my atrocious RNG.

twev · July 2019

LadySinflower wrote: »

I also want to know why some players have the "good" purple furniture plans but I can't seem to get any. I see the same guy in zone chat almost every day spamming greens, blues, and purples. Tons of them! I've gotten about 3 purples but I see others getting the 4 Lions Elsweyr Fountain, either of the "throne" armchairs, the dividers, various beds, etc. I do all the Elsweyr dailies and when I'm finished I farm dragons, sometimes up to 60 a day. Instead of those "good" purples, I keep getting multiples of green plans like the spice displays, the walls, floors, stuff like that. One day I had 3 document pouches in a row drop the same treasure map and green plan! That sucks because my ratio of adventurer backpacks to document pouches is about 8:1. There was a certain candle sconce I wanted (blue), and I found it for a reasonable price at a guild trader and bought it. Today, just two days later, it dropped from a dragon. So I gave it to my SO who also wanted it but doesn't have time to farm dragons like I do. But you'd think after a month of almost daily dragons in that quantity, something really good would have dropped! As far as motifs go, I still haven't completed the Anequina set and have had just 2 Pelletine drops. Maybe it's because my interest isn't in selling them. I want to learn them on my main character. So I really don't understand my atrocious RNG.

If you run a few dozen bots 24/7, like some 'sellers' have access to (no, I'm not accusing actual players, but there are some professional botters) then you'd be able to offload a lot more RNG goodies to sell on a daily basis too.

twev · July 2019

Linaleah wrote: »

wishlist14 wrote: »

Gandrhulf_Harbard wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

Because the "R" in RNG is for random.

Actually its because the R in RNG is most definitely NOT for Random, no matter how much Devs try to pretend otherwise.

https://mmos.com/editorials/rng-isnt-random

Several games have admitted as much, with the unique player ID heavily influencing the outcome of an allegedly "random" roll. The so called "seed" element of the RNG equation.

Now, some games will use different "seeds" some may use more than one "seed" but the seed influences the outcome massively.

All The Best

Well as far as seeds go...are you saying they reward their friends first? I was trying to understand how these seeds work if like that link says, drops are not random. Thanks for the reply, it was very interesting.

I don't think its friend based. i'm not sure WHAT its based on, but i've noticed that even across my account, my older account has awful rng, my newer account has pretty decent luck (but I'm not buying crates on it, it just.. gets various drops faster and more consistently, somehow - even with twitch crates, it would get more of them when there is a chance, vs my main account - not a prime taking priority either, as my main is the one connected to my amazon account)

as far as people selling every drop they get... what about those of us who get NO drops? cause that's been my experience so far. not. one. motif. from dragon dailies. NONE.

If this is true, (and I've suspected without more than anecdotal info from this and other MMOs), then it's possible that 'smart' botters would delete and remake underperforming bots after a few days to make other bots that might have a better seed at creation?
That would sort of explain why some 'shady sellers' consistently have access to so much good stuff all the time.

Some normal players just get a better lucky seed, and play.

Many unlucky players just get a bad seed, shrug, assume it's normal, and go ahead and play it.

::cue the theme music from The X Files::

angelncelestine · July 2019

Well if this seed thing is true I have a rotten seed. I have had horrible rng since I started playing 5 years ago. Believe me I know how disheartening it is watching other people always get nice things
and you never do. Regardless the amount of effort you put into getting said things.

therift · July 2019

There are a couple simple explanations:

1) Subjective results. As Haenk stated, you aren't seeing the entire data set of drop results. Seeing many players posting a rare item in chat will give you the impression your results are sub-par, because you are not seeing the failed drop results.

2) Farming. Some players will spend all of their time farming for rare items when new content is released. I mean all of their time, because they know there is a limited market to sell to early-adopters with deep pockets. Since they have little time to spare for selling, let alone any other game activity, they tend to sell in batches, so they can get back to farming.

3) Random is not Random. Computers cannot generate a random number. Give a computer an instruction, and it will deliver the same result every time. Random numbers, as defined in mathematics, do not exist in video games. There are some techniques to simulate a random number. Pulling numbers sequentially from a data table of random numbers is the easiest way and is probably the technique used by ESO. Other techniques involve complex (read 'computationally intensive') algorithms, utilize radioactive decay, or sample something from the environment (eg wind direction).

In short... your results, in the long run, are probably neither better nor worse than any other player conducting the same activity. It may also be a result of a bad data table (if that technique is used) if the data table was generated computationally rather than built from true random numbers ( such as imported from a book of true random numbers).

tl/dr

RNG does not exist. Computers can't generate random numbers. Your experience is probably subjective, and it might be that ESO uses a weak source of simulated random numbers.

Ackwalan · July 2019

The RNG in this game is terrible. Yesterday I got 3 master crafting writs ( 1 blacksmith, 1 woodsmith, 1 cloth) what was messed up is that all 3 were for the same style and crafting set. What are the odds of that?

Katahdin · July 2019

I'm in the same boat OP.
Been doing boss and delve dailies almost every day, still have not finished the Anequena motif. Have gotten zero Pelletine.

Been killing dragons too, already have the kill 50 achieve.
0 purple funiture recipes
1 or 2 blue
6 or 7 green

Linaleah · July 2019

therift wrote: »

There are a couple simple explanations:

1) Subjective results. As Haenk stated, you aren't seeing the entire data set of drop results. Seeing many players posting a rare item in chat will give you the impression your results are sub-par, because you are not seeing the failed drop results.

2) Farming. Some players will spend all of their time farming for rare items when new content is released. I mean all of their time, because they know there is a limited market to sell to early-adopters with deep pockets. Since they have little time to spare for selling, let alone any other game activity, they tend to sell in batches, so they can get back to farming.

3) Random is not Random. Computers cannot generate a random number. Give a computer an instruction, and it will deliver the same result every time. Random numbers, as defined in mathematics, do not exist in video games. There are some techniques to simulate a random number. Pulling numbers sequentially from a data table of random numbers is the easiest way and is probably the technique used by ESO. Other techniques involve complex (read 'computationally intensive') algorithms, utilize radioactive decay, or sample something from the environment (eg wind direction).

In short... your results, in the long run, are probably neither better nor worse than any other player conducting the same activity. It may also be a result of a bad data table (if that technique is used) if the data table was generated computationally rather than built from true random numbers ( such as imported from a book of true random numbers).

tl/dr

RNG does not exist. Computers can't generate random numbers. Your experience is probably subjective, and it might be that ESO uses a weak source of simulated random numbers.

I would hope that random IS random, but.. i'm in a housing guild and we often end up farming essentially together, same spots, everything. you know, i've yet to see a single drop of skooma bubbler recipe? the bubblers themselves i actualy got a few and i have enough alcohol bottles and filled mugs to stock an entire liquer store, or a VERY drunken party. but recipe? nada. i tried farming in different locations, (this guild is awesome and we tend to share locations, cause we also tend to trade recipes with each other) this one guildie, whom I adore to pieces... got that recipes multiple times, once in the same day, and not even farming specifically drunks only, there just happened to be a drunk on their pick pick stab route. I've been farming that recipe on multiple characters, and yes I tried farming that drunk too. nada. zilch. zip. how do you explain THAT?

I mean yeah, sure random numbers are random, but sometimes, one has to wonder. all things being equal, why do some accounts seem to get the same pool of recipes, while others seem to get a different pool of recipes (like... i ended up trading the same Elsweyr blue to 3 different people after learning it myself, cause they haven't seen it drop. meanwhile there are greens, not even blues - GREENS that i've yet to see. forget purples

)

so it seems like some combination of 3 and bad seed account could be a thing that is happening here. but gosh darn it, I have had this account far too long to just.. give up on it

Ohtimbar · July 2019

The grind seems worse than usual in Elsweyr. Unsurprising, given the direction of the game in general.

twev · July 2019

Ackwalan wrote: »

The RNG in this game is terrible. Yesterday I got 3 master crafting writs ( 1 blacksmith, 1 woodsmith, 1 cloth) what was messed up is that all 3 were for the same style and crafting set. What are the odds of that?

Pretty much the same as my getting the same green tail-splint in Elsweyr on the same 'toon 5 times in a row looting containers the day before yesterday.

I've seen similar happen 3 times semi-'often', and 4 times rarely, this was my first Quintuple.
The 3's and 4's are mostly from pickpocketing, usually in Auridon outside the bank.

Snowy_Wyndra_Karn · July 2019

I completely agree.

I am a devoted player... I'm on all the time.

Not that I've been looking for motifs in Elsweyr... but a couple of weeks back I refined 1000 rubedite without a single tempering alloy... and over 100 fish without one perfect roe.

I don't get it but it hardly seems fair.

twev · July 2019

delenn35 wrote: »

I completely agree.

I am a devoted player... I'm on all the time.

Not that I've been looking for motifs in Elsweyr... but a couple of weeks back I refined 1000 rubedite without a single tempering alloy... and over 100 fish without one perfect roe.

I don't get it but it hardly seems fair.

My main was my first Master Angler, I was collecting stacks of fish before I gut them, at the end of the achievement.
I started stacking the fish about halfway through.
My average was ~250 fish/perfect roe.
This was about 2 months ago.

Cage_Lizardman · July 2019

First time I did the dailies for Anequina I got two of the motifs. Then I did them once a day for a week and got nothing. Haven't bothered since.

Snowy_Wyndra_Karn · July 2019

250???

I used to average one every 50.

Not anymore.

twev wrote: »

delenn35 wrote: »

I completely agree.

I am a devoted player... I'm on all the time.

Not that I've been looking for motifs in Elsweyr... but a couple of weeks back I refined 1000 rubedite without a single tempering alloy... and over 100 fish without one perfect roe.

I don't get it but it hardly seems fair.

My main was my first Master Angler, I was collecting stacks of fish before I gut them, at the end of the achievement.
I started stacking the fish about halfway through.
My average was ~250 fish/perfect roe.
This was about 2 months ago.

Minyassa · July 2019

The RNG *is* sinister. I am convinced that it is a malevolent entity that takes a dislike to some people and goes out of its way to deny them anything that would make them especially happy. Case in point--I loathe bears. I buy very, very few crown crates, just don't like to spend money on that, but sometimes I need gems. In the crown crates I have bought as well as those I have been given as gifts AND the free ones that were given out in past, I have won 2 apex mounts. Guess what they were! Yep, bears. In fact, I got a bear right away the very first crate I opened when the Psijic crates were out and I would have given my left pinky toe for that purple radiant horse. That's like the ultimate mount for me, I wanted it so very badly. So the RNG knew that and said nope. You get a bear. Because eff you.

That's how it do.

redlink1979 · July 2019

Rng... Just that...
You can have the item on 1st attempt or you can take months to grab it. Look at vMA as an example.
If you want to increase your success odds I advise you to run the daily quest with more chars. That's what I do when I have the time, I run them with 8 chars.

twev · July 2019

redlink1979 wrote: »

Rng... Just that...
You can have the item on 1st attempt or you can take months to grab it. Look at vMA as an example.
If you want to increase your success odds I advise you to run the daily quest with more chars. That's what I do when I have the time, I run them with 8 chars.

So better RNG is dependent on having more 'toons on an account?

Doesn't that also mean that an account with one 'toon averages comparatively bad RNG?

MajBludd · July 2019

Because RNGesus hates you

munchkinxx · July 2019

Gandrhulf_Harbard wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

Because the "R" in RNG is for random.

Actually its because the R in RNG is most definitely NOT for Random, no matter how much Devs try to pretend otherwise.

https://mmos.com/editorials/rng-isnt-random

Several games have admitted as much, with the unique player ID heavily influencing the outcome of an allegedly "random" roll. The so called "seed" element of the RNG equation.

Now, some games will use different "seeds" some may use more than one "seed" but the seed influences the outcome massively.

All The Best

I always wondered if there was such a thing..this seed.

My account is well know enough to have very good luck, that if anyone wants a drop ...they ask me to come along for luck.

I have been playing since launch on PS4 and in the first release of anything...I get BIS, not from farming to death but as I collect achievements and completions.

Achievements on my first char are over 30k, so may count there for one theory but I have day old chars with same luck.

14 out of 16 chars are master crafters...4 grand master crafters.

My chars are crafting level 50 before char level 50. Maybe it helps....I don't know.

I pve end game and Quest as much as I PvP.

I rarely need to farm much because I hoard everything anyway lol.

My refining is anything from 1 to 3 gold mats per 100 of anything.

I don't need to sell anything to make gold as I don't need to buy anything.

I run VMA on one char...a magsorc that I ran flawless on and picked up everything in a month of runs during double drops. Never went in again...ugh. Got the achievements and gear and ran.

With new updates, comes new players unaware and unable to use the motifs etc. There are older gamers that prey on them and advertise to buy the new items in zone, pay pittance, then resell for a ridiculous amount.

I don't farm mats...just pick up surveys and decon everything.

I realise people reading this may seem it's really unfair but I am trying to help give light on any assumptions or insights into the rng phenomena.

I give away anything I don't need....so even if I have one of these lucky seed accounts...I make sure it benefits others as much as me...it's all freely picked up anyway.

AbysmalGhul · July 2019

wishlist14 wrote: »

I'm not wanting to complain here. I'm just curious as to why Elsweyr zone chat is full of players selling Pellitine motifs and purple Elsweyr recipes and I do my Elsweyr dailies religiously and have not had a single Pellitine motif drop for me since the dragon dailies started. I also started the delve and boss dailies for elsweyr when they were first available and been doing those everyday. I still have not finished my collection.

As for Elsweyr recipes ive had 2 purple drop for me and they were both identical so i learned one and sold the other. I get a few greens and hardly any blue recipes but my friends and people on zone chat seem to get lots.

I know people say it's rng but I think it's something far more sinister 😛

Please zos gimme more motifs and recipes 🤗🤗🤗

I'm doing so many time consuming dailies lol im running out of times in my day to do my pledges.

Firstly I do all my riding lessons soI need to log in and out a few times which takes time
So basically I do my crafting writs on only 2 characters .
Then I do my 3 Elsweyr dailies...chasing dragons and waiting for boss spawns takes time.
Then i clear bags and decon gear etc
Then i do my thieves guild daily and DB daily
If im lucky i can fit in a couple of pledges or my pug trial but i have been running out of time due to real life comitments.

So my reason for sharing so much information here is to point out that the poor drop rate of say pellitine motif is a waste of time for me....real life time. If i got something every second day or so it would be more encouraging but to get nothing....😣😟😔😓

And to be clear I do not want to buy the motifs, im trying to save real money and ingame gold so it's not an option. I'm not rich. I haven't had as much time to farm since i was focusing on gearing my characters via pug trials.

You can't always get what you want...That's just life.

eso_lytw8 · July 2019

Gandrhulf_Harbard wrote: »

Lightspeedflashb14_ESO wrote: »

Because the "R" in RNG is for random.

Actually its because the R in RNG is most definitely NOT for Random, no matter how much Devs try to pretend otherwise.

I'm so glad this is finally being recognized, because people blowing off observed drops that would appear to be impossibly low simply as "random" bad luck keep the focus away from a significant defect in the game.

I've gathered examples over four years of playing the game and here is what I believe is happening.

#1.) A traditional random number generation is being used...this means the numbers are NOT RANDOM. Once the seed is set, often drawn from a date/timestamp, the following sequence is 100% predictable. Once the same number is generated a second time the sequence repeats itself. If you need a "05" to get a VMA bow to drop and your sequence contains a lot of 07's but few 05's then your chance of getting a bow is extremely small and not the same as another player. To an extreme some low drop items will have ZERO probability of dropping for some people.

#2) The seed/sequence/probability is most definitely character specific. I have seen so many examples of this. And it makes total sense if drop rates are biased at the character level it should be easy to see that if you can not get a drop to happen on one toon it will be fairly common on another toon. I believe this is why people often suggest for VMA if you can't get a fire staff to drop on you mag sorc, learn it on a stam character and it is much more likely to drop. I don't believe the developers spent time to adjust the drop rates based the type of character. Instead it is because your mag character has a sequence of random numbers that prevent the bow from dropping.

#3) The seeds/probabilities reset every 3-6 months. Many examples demonstrate this. This happens time after time. An item that would not drop, suddenly drops and sometimes twice in a row. And from that point forward the drops happen at a predictable rate.

#4) The sequences appear to be event specific or function call specific or "proc" specific. This I am less certain of but do believe it is happening. What this means is that if there are multiple ways to get an item your probabilities are bound to that method. For example VMA chest may not drop an inferno staff for you and this might indeed be the case, but your chance to get the staff may be entirely different by getting on the leaderboard and getting one mailed to you.

So what does this mean, if you believe you can not get an item to drop, it might indeed might be the case. If this happens switch toons your probabilities will be different and hopefully skewed to the item you want. If that's not an option you may want to level up another character or simple stop trying for 3-6 months and come back later. You chances will be different.

Lytw8