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What are the chances of not getting an inferno maelstrom staff after 60ish runs?

Parthrax0923
Parthrax0923
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I'm getting tired lol! I dread every single arena but I want the staff so bad.

How long did it take you guys to get the staff?
Fus Ro Dah!
  • Siohwenoeht
    Siohwenoeht
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    Ouch. I'm just gearing up for vMA runs. I've always heard it's one of the rarest but hope it doesn't take me 60 runs either!

    Some think that running it with a Stam character increases the chance of mag weapons but there's no way to tell if that is true. Hope your rng improves soon!
    "It is a lovely language, but it takes a very long time saying anything in it, because we do not say anything in it, unless it is worth taking a long time to say, and to listen to." - Treebeard
  • Parthrax0923
    Parthrax0923
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    Ouch. I'm just gearing up for vMA runs. I've always heard it's one of the rarest but hope it doesn't take me 60 runs either!

    Some think that running it with a Stam character increases the chance of mag weapons but there's no way to tell if that is true. Hope your rng improves soon!

    Thanks. I've got one more run left in me tonight. I have around 10 bows now, and countless shields/sword.

    I have multiple copies of every set, yet still no inferno :/
    Fus Ro Dah!
  • AbysmalGhul
    AbysmalGhul
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    I still haven't received one yet. It's all RNG friendo. My wife got two back to back, and I keep getting lightning, healing, and ice staves.
  • vesselwiththepestle
    vesselwiththepestle
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    Wait for Wrothgar Event (double loot) or do vma with a class where you get a safe spot in the leaderboards. It helps.

    Sadly the chances to get one stay the same, they don't increase by time :).
    1000+ CP
    PC/EU Ravenwatch Daggerfall Covenant

    Give me my wings back!
  • XxCaLxX
    XxCaLxX
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    I’ve ran vma about 200 times over the years. 2 inferno’s and both were from leaderboard rewards. Never have looted an inferno. I’ve saw ppl get them first few runs too though. I don’t mind the RNG in eso but for the best weapons in game its a bit much. There’s multiple posts about that so I won’t bother but good luck on getting it soon.
  • Tsar_Gekkou
    Tsar_Gekkou
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    A friend of mine took over 190 runs to get an inferno. It's rough out there.
    Xbox NA healer main
    vAA HM | vHRC HM | vSO HM | vMoL HM | vHoF HM | vAS+2 | vCR+3 | vBRP | vSS HM | vKA HM | vRG HM |
    Flawless Conqueror | Spirit Slayer | Dro-mA'thra Destroyer | Tick-Tock-Tormentor | Immortal Redeemer | Gryphon Heart | Godslayer | Dawnbringer | Planesbreaker |
  • Parthrax0923
    Parthrax0923
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    reading all of this depresses me LOL. So the staff has a lower chance of dropping than other items? That's sorta messed up.
    Fus Ro Dah!
  • mzprx
    mzprx
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    i have run vMA about 200 times. got infused inferno staff on my second run. bow was next. i was feeling lucky. all i needed was 1 (one) lightning staff for my sorc. should be easy, right? nope. i have sold more two-handers than i can remember, can swim in bows, have 4 inferno staves from the weekly leaderboard rewards (as well as 3 or 4 from the vMA end reward itself) and have deconstructed soo many axes, swords, maces, restoration staves, shields and so on. all i wanted was 1 (one) freaking lightning staff. i tried running vMA with a stamina characters, tried it with magicka characters. tried sorcs, NBs, wardens, templars. i knew that the meta nowadays is inferno vMA staff, but i didn't care. i wanted 1 (one) lightning staff. for my sorc. you know, a shock themed sorc. took me around 200 clears to get it. that is like 250+ hours that i could have spent doing other things, like questing, exploring, so on. the RNG in this game sucks..
    Edited by mzprx on April 18, 2019 7:49AM
    EU/NA @Schwifty9 (DC)

    owner of the Imgakin monkey
  • AndyMac
    AndyMac
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    Pure RNG I’m afraid - I’ve got 4 infernos - two during the Wrothgar event - different years though lol - one from my single stamplar clear and one from the leaderboards the week before last.

    I’ve been running vMA pretty regularly since Homestead :)
    Andymac - Magicka DK - EP Grand Overlord - Flawless Conqueror
  • Rake
    Rake
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    good chances
  • Tryxus
    Tryxus
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    3 years of that madness... before I had my 1st Inferno Staff...
    Edited by Tryxus on April 18, 2019 8:12AM
    "Stand strong, stay true and shelter all."
    Tryxus - Guardian of the Green - Warden - PC/EU
  • Aleraon
    Aleraon
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    Seems surprisingly easier on a stamina toon. I used to get mostly junk till I managed to get my stamblade through there. Double drop event was even better which was a bonus as I've got 12 toons lol
    (EU/AD) CP501 Razum-dah - Khajiiti Templar Healer
    (EU/AD) CP501 J'Kara Silverclaw - Khajiiti Dragonknight tank
    (EU/AD) CP501 Rajhiin - Khajiiti stamina Nightblade
    (EU/AD) CP501 Draven Corvillian - Breton magicka Nightblade
    (EU/AD) CP501 Sinderian Nightflame - High Elf magicka sorcerer
    (EU/AD) CP501 J'zargo Silverclaw - Khajiit stamina Templar
    (EU/AD) CP501 Ariella Nightshade - High Elf Magicka Nightblade
    (EU/AD) CP501 Ri'shada - Khajiit Stamina Sorcerer
    (EU/AD) LVL29 Valeon Indoril - Dark Elf Magicka Dragonknight
    *The Queen stole this one's moonsugar candies lol*
  • HappyLittleTree
    HappyLittleTree
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    Only 60 runs? hahaha
    tenor.gif?itemid=6096185

    I got mine excactly after the 286th run :D

    Even with double drops my rng was shite xD


    Thuu chakkuth lod Hajhiit c’oo? Hajhiit gortsuquth gorihuth thuu gooluthduj thdeitoluu!

    XBox-EU
  • Neoealth
    Neoealth
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    Don't hate me OP, but I've only completed vMA 8 times, and the 3rd time I got the inferno staff, didn't even want it. Then got 2 more on the 4th and 5th runs. They are just in my house gathering dust. On the 8th run I got the lightning staff I wanted. Not been back since.

  • Parthrax0923
    Parthrax0923
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    Neoealth wrote: »
    Don't hate me OP, but I've only completed vMA 8 times, and the 3rd time I got the inferno staff, didn't even want it. Then got 2 more on the 4th and 5th runs. They are just in my house gathering dust. On the 8th run I got the lightning staff I wanted. Not been back since.

    too late. I hate you :smiley:
    Fus Ro Dah!
  • Kurat
    Kurat
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    It's all just rng man. I got inferno staff on 1st run, but wanted bow and it took me 50ish runs to get it.
  • Jhalin
    Jhalin
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    I got an Inferno my first clear

    I prefer stam dps though so of course I won’t see an AY weapon for years (guess that’s ok since it’s getting nerfed)
  • Sleep724
    Sleep724
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    I’ve gotten the inferno staff 3 times in a row before when looking for the 2h axe :D
  • ccfeeling
    ccfeeling
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    Random is random ;)
  • Blackers
    Blackers
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    Ouch indeed.

    I got my maelstrom inferno staff on my 10th run, but it was during the first Orsinium anniversary event (double loot drop).

    Hope you get lucky soon, after 60 runs you certainly deserve it!
    MagBlade / Templar Healer (PC/EU/DC)
  • sudaki_eso
    sudaki_eso
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    Same chance you had on your first clear >:)
    But yeah, i have no luck in that damn arena as well. While other swin in bows i dont get a single one.
    PS4 EU - StamDK
  • r34lian
    r34lian
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    Yeah same 11 runs so far and getting dececive axes and charged mauls :/
    2000 CP • 18 Maxed Characters • 6 Altmers • 7 Redguards • Necromancer Orc • Warden Dunmer • DK Nord • DK Imperial • Templar Breton
  • MJallday
    MJallday
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    i posted in this a few weeks ago.

    i did 25-30 runs on my mag sorc, it never dropped - but i got an endless amount of bows/mauls/1h

    1 run on my stamplar and there it was.
    the next run, a lightning staff
    the next run, an ice staff

    i swear it does opposites


  • BluntLightsaber
    If I remember correctly then each weapon type has an equally weighted drop so there are 6 weapon types which would mean a Destruction Staff would have a 1/6 chance to drop, it's then broken down by element to a 1/18 chance of getting an inferno staff.

    After 60 runs the cumulative chance of getting one would be: 1-(17/18)^60 ≈ 97% or a 3% chance of not getting one as per your original question.

    Just be thankful that they added in transmutation, that 1/18 chance used to be a 1/162 chance :|
    Edited by BluntLightsaber on April 18, 2019 10:11AM
  • lardvader
    lardvader
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    Got most of my good weapons during the Orsinium event. Got the inferno on my 10th run and have a total of 4. Also have 3 bows. For the sake of qol I want one more inferno and 2 more bows. Atm I have a bad streak of DW drops. Last 8 clears yielded nothing but axes and maces :p
    CP 1200+ PC EU EP
  • magicsprout
    magicsprout
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    have a huge pile of bows and 1h shield. its a painful farm with aussie lag
  • heaven13
    heaven13
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    I just completed my second run a couple nights ago (exponentially easier than the first). Doing it to practice/improve, not really worried about weapon, and BAM, inferno staff at end. Was even on a mag character.

    Hopefully you will get it soon, OP!
    PC/NA
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    vAA HM | vHRC HM | vSO HM | vDSA | vMoL HM | vHoF HM | vAS+2 | vCR+2 | vBRP | vSS HM | vKA | vRG
    Meet my characters :
    IT DOESN'T MATTER BECAUSE THEY'RE ALL THE SAME NOW, THANKS ZOS
  • madeeh91rwb17_ESO
    madeeh91rwb17_ESO
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    wow

    I got an infused inferno staff on my very first run.

    I've only ever done two.
    Second one was a precise restro staff, which is also ok I guess :)
  • Neyane
    Neyane
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    Ooh sorry friend, that's just really really bad luck. Hopefully you'll get it soon.
    The most important thing in life is enjoying yourself.
    ValkyrieMikuu ♥
    1200+ PC EU ♥
    1000+ PS EU ♥
    Last time I played ESO on PC was before covid. I'm back ^.^
  • SippingPotions
    SippingPotions
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    I got flawless before I ever saw a lightning staff drop. I lost count after about 50 runs but i feel your pain :(
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