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Uncracked Transmutation Geode drops the same amount of transmute crystals
An_An
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This is regarding the 'Rewards for the Worthy: Uncracked Transmutation Geode (4-25 Crystals)' (i.e. Gold ones) which come in the mail through PvP rewards.
I've been keeping track of how many transmute crystals drop when I use this geode for the past 2 weeks, and it is always 4. Not 90% of the time, but a 100% of the time. I have never got a higher / lower number than this. I've tried opening the mail on other characters, but they still drop only 4 crystals.
Is this working as intended? Is the RNG designed to favor lower crystal drops? And even then, are you sure the RNG is working right?
Let's do some math. Let the probability that 4 crystals drop be P(4) and that of 25 crystal drop be P(25).
If P(4) == P(5-24) == P(25) i.e. it is equally likely to get either 4 0r 25 or any number in between, then the probability that a person gets the same number for 14 straight days through RNG is P(4) ^14 = (1/22)^14 = 0.000000000000000016072464 %.
If the probability for a 4 drop is twice as much as the probability for a 25 drop, then knowing that P(4) + P(5) + ... + P(25) =1 (and assuming a linear trend) we can calculate a P(4) = 0.08333 (for each geode) which over 14 days leads to 0.000000000000077886566 %.
In short- it is extremely unlikely that a person gets the same number for 14 days in a row unless some ungodly weighting (e.g. P(25) = P(4) / 100000 ... guess) is used.
Platform : Windows
Server : PC NA
PvP Campaigns : Kyne, Vivec, Sotha Sil
Edited by An_An on October 11, 2018 5:51PM I've been keeping track of how many transmute crystals drop when I use this geode for the past 2 weeks, and it is always 4. Not 90% of the time, but a 100% of the time. I have never got a higher / lower number than this. I've tried opening the mail on other characters, but they still drop only 4 crystals.
Is this working as intended? Is the RNG designed to favor lower crystal drops? And even then, are you sure the RNG is working right?
Let's do some math. Let the probability that 4 crystals drop be P(4) and that of 25 crystal drop be P(25).
If P(4) == P(5-24) == P(25) i.e. it is equally likely to get either 4 0r 25 or any number in between, then the probability that a person gets the same number for 14 straight days through RNG is P(4) ^14 = (1/22)^14 = 0.000000000000000016072464 %.
If the probability for a 4 drop is twice as much as the probability for a 25 drop, then knowing that P(4) + P(5) + ... + P(25) =1 (and assuming a linear trend) we can calculate a P(4) = 0.08333 (for each geode) which over 14 days leads to 0.000000000000077886566 %.
In short- it is extremely unlikely that a person gets the same number for 14 days in a row unless some ungodly weighting (e.g. P(25) = P(4) / 100000 ... guess) is used.
Platform : Windows
Server : PC NA
PvP Campaigns : Kyne, Vivec, Sotha Sil
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Merlin13KAGL✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭Pretty sure it's not an even distribution on any of the geodes. It's gotta be weighted towards the low end of the scale.
I think the most I've ever seen out of any geode was 10, and that was once. The occasional 5 and 4, but mostly 3's, and even more 2's (not RfTW's obviously.)Just because you don't like the way something is doesn't necessarily make it wrong...
Earn it.
IRL'ing for a while for assorted reasons, in forum, and in game.I am neither warm, nor fuzzy...
Probably has checkbox on Customer Service profile that say High Aggro, 99% immunity to BS0 -
SirAndy✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭ZOS RNG has always been heavily weighted, that is true for just about anything using RNG in ESO.
PS: Also, my last two RftW both had 10 crystals in them ...
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An_An✭✭✭Merlin13KAGL wrote: »Pretty sure it's not an even distribution on any of the geodes. It's gotta be weighted towards the low end of the scale.
I think the most I've ever seen out of any geode was 10, and that was once. The occasional 5 and 4, but mostly 3's, and even more 2's (not RfTW's obviously.)
I used to see this as well and I agree they should be weighted. But unless there is some extraordinarily steep weighting this should not happen
I used to find crystals in all ranges in the past. But nowadays I'm only getting 4s. Like I read "Uncracked Transmutation Geode (4-25 Crystals)" as "Uncracked Transmutation Geode (4 Crystals)".0 -
VaranisArano✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭✭✭I got a 15 stone and a 5 stone geode today, so its not like they don't exist.0 -
fred4✭✭✭✭✭
✭✭✭It can seem that way as the RNG is heavily weighted. Got only 4 for maybe a whole month. Got 2x 20 recently. When you could retrieve a geode per character, it was much easier to see the RNG in action. I got 4, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 in the past.0
