The Elder Scrolls Online

The issues related to logging in to the European PC/Mac megaserver have been resolved at this time. If you continue to experience difficulties at login, please restart your client. Thank you for your patience!

50% pickpocket chance... failed 8 times now.

Leave a Reply
  • DeadlyPhoenix
    DeadlyPhoenix
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    Wait until you force a simple lock with a 90% success chance and fail 11 times in a row.
  • Gythral
    Gythral
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭✭
    pRNG is only random over very much larger numbers than a human can be bothered to test
    *
    80
    800
    8000
    could all fail (even with a true random chance)

    but pRNG you probably want 10s of millions to see a 50-50 split,
    & yep I did this for a laugh on a PDP-11/23 back in the '80s, plotted the random functions output 1-10 :)
    “Be as a tower, that, firmly set,
    Shakes not its top for any blast that blows!”
    Dante Alighieri, The Divine Comedy
  • PlagueSD
    PlagueSD
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭
    bg22 wrote: »
    I’ve failed a 50% to pickpocket 8 times in a row now.

    That doesn’t add up to me.

    not really. Using probability, at a 50% chance of something happening, we can show this as 1 in 2^8 or 1 in 256. Not really THAT rare...
  • Minyassa
    Minyassa
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭✭✭
    The RNG is just evil, that's what that's about.
  • Tandor
    Tandor
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    rfennell_ESO wrote: »
    bg22 wrote: »
    I’ve failed a 50% to pickpocket 8 times in a row now.

    That doesn’t add up to me.

    Statistically it would be a 1/256 chance happening.

    But, keep in mind that most mmo's and computer games don't actually math to calculate things and instead use tables to simplify calculations.

    Plus it's not happening in an otherwise empty vacuum, there are other NPCs to consider, for example.
  • carljokl
    carljokl
    ✭✭✭
    Cumulative statistics.

    I don't think ESO probability works the same way as real world probability.
    Percentages....they lie!
    My Characters

    Xargothius: Breton - JOAT / Magsorc | Orchid the Fair: Orismer - Crafter / Heavy Tank | Voneri Vox: Dunmer - Magplar Healer | Rexorgiana: Imperial - Temptress / Magblade
    Phirkius: Altmer - MagSorc | Rexorigus: Imperial - Med Tank / StamKnight | Sven Svedishchef: Nord - Provisioner / Stamplar | Finds-All-Fungi: Argonian - Alchemist/ Stamblade
    Emerald-Wild-Guard: Bosmer - Wyrd / StamSorc | Nates Datum Festi: Imperial - Light Tank / StamKnight | Magnolia Desert-Blossom: Redguard - 2 Handed Stamplar | Shadow-Softpaw: Khajiit - StamBlade
    Sorcerer | Dragon Knight | Templar | Night Blade
  • Violynne
    Violynne
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭
    bg22 wrote: »
    I’ve failed a 50% to pickpocket 8 times in a row now.

    That doesn’t add up to me.

    Oh, you haven't seen anything yet. Just wait until you get this number of failures on a 90% chance.
  • DMuehlhausen
    DMuehlhausen
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭
    bg22 wrote: »
    I’ve failed a 50% to pickpocket 8 times in a row now.

    That doesn’t add up to me.

    It's 50% each time, not spread out over X attempts. So it makes perfect sense numberwise. You could flip a coin 8 times and technically it could land tails every time.
  • Malacthulhu
    Malacthulhu
    ✭✭✭✭
    testd4n1 wrote: »
    It can happen. Plus, it you might be getting seen by another NPC, not necessarily the one you are attempting to pick.

    Another npc does not effect your pickpocketing odds on your target bc they see you, just your bounty.
    Xbox One Na
  • N00BxV1
    N00BxV1
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭
    You think failing at 50% is bad? I’ve failed at 100% more times than I can count, and it was not user error either. The percentages are a filthy lie.

    Edit: And it's like being caught using the Blade of Woe by the person you're Blade of Woe'ing. How does that even freaking happen!?
    Edited by N00BxV1 on May 1, 2018 7:12PM
  • Kiralyn2000
    Kiralyn2000
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    Remember - even if the odds of something happening is 1 in 1,000....

    ...if there are 100,000 people doing it, there's around 100 people that had it happen.


    And 10 of them are likely to come to the forums to say "OMG, this system is broken!" and "See? It's happening to lots of us!"
    o:)
  • Grimm13
    Grimm13
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭
    bg22 wrote: »
    I’ve failed a 50% to pickpocket 8 times in a row now.

    That doesn’t add up to me.

    I have that happen to characters with a 95% chance. RNG sucks.

    I have waited 15 minutes then tried and found it works. Totally anecdotal but to me it seems that the RNG has a factor with the clock. Done this to wait on loot table changes. Or it could just be superstition on my part.
    https://sparkforautism.org/

    Season of DraggingOn
    It's your choice on how you vote with your $

    PC-NA
  • FinneganFroth
    FinneganFroth
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    It should be a prerequisite for every ESO player to have to take an intro level course in probability theory.

    But I dream...but I dream...
  • firedrgn
    firedrgn
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    It happens
    It will swing the other way also. I would go pick a few guards pockets your due for somw good luck. Hehe
  • Ardaghion
    Ardaghion
    ✭✭✭✭
    N00BxV1 wrote: »
    Edit: And it's like being caught using the Blade of Woe by the person you're Blade of Woe'ing. How does that even freaking happen!?

    I'd like to know how I can pickpocket an NPC on a deserted beach, kill the NPC, and still have a bounty! Who, pray tell, is reporting me to the authorities??
  • Ectheliontnacil
    Ectheliontnacil
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭
    jedtb16_ESO wrote: »
    bg22 wrote: »
    jedtb16_ESO wrote: »
    each attempt is 50% chance. the outcome on one has no effect on the outcome of the next.

    I know this...

    But, by odds, it seems almost impossible.

    nope, as you have found, it's entirely possible. the odds are the same each time 50%

    Lol even though there is no connection between one pickpocketing attempt and the next, the odds of 8 failed attempts in a row are still astronomically low. 0.39% to be exact.

    You are making a mistake in saying the chance of failing/succeeding is always 50%. If try pickpocketing 8 times there's a number of possible outcomes. The number of possible outcomes is 2^8 (since you double the possible outcomes with every attempt). Always failing is one of these 2^8 = 256 outcomes and therefore has a 1/256~0.0039 chance of occurring.
  • Ackwalan
    Ackwalan
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ZOS math is terrible. Anything below 100% is at best 50%. It does not matter, if you are upgrading an item, forcing open a box or pickpocketing if it is not 100% chance you have a higher probability of failing then succeeding.
  • rfennell_ESO
    rfennell_ESO
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭
    N00BxV1 wrote: »
    You think failing at 50% is bad? I’ve failed at 100% more times than I can count, and it was not user error either. The percentages are a filthy lie.

    Edit: And it's like being caught using the Blade of Woe by the person you're Blade of Woe'ing. How does that even freaking happen!?

    Had both these happen plenty of times.

    It's some funny stuff.
  • MasterSpatula
    MasterSpatula
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    50%? Dude.

    At 95% success chance, I have about a 60% failure rate. My results aren't even remotely abnormal.

    Pickpocketing at less than 100%, expect to get a high bounty.
    "A probable impossibility is preferable to an improbable possibility." - Aristotle
  • PlagueSD
    PlagueSD
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭
    Ardaghion wrote: »
    N00BxV1 wrote: »
    Edit: And it's like being caught using the Blade of Woe by the person you're Blade of Woe'ing. How does that even freaking happen!?

    I'd like to know how I can pickpocket an NPC on a deserted beach, kill the NPC, and still have a bounty! Who, pray tell, is reporting me to the authorities??

    Mudcrabs. That's why they all must DIE!!!!
  • Sarjako
    Sarjako
    ✭✭✭
    Kiralyn2000 wrote: »
    Remember - even if the odds of something happening is 1 in 1,000....

    ...if there are 100,000 people doing it, there's around 100 people that had it happen.


    And 10 of them are likely to come to the forums to say "OMG, this system is broken!" and "See? It's happening to lots of us!"
    o:)

    * mic drop *
    XBX1 NA
    Healplar / StamDK-Tank / Stamblade / Magblade
    CP 810
  • LiquidPony
    LiquidPony
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭✭
    bg22 wrote: »
    I’ve failed a 50% to pickpocket 8 times in a row now.

    That doesn’t add up to me.

    The odds of failing 8 times in a row are 1/256.
    Ectheliontnacil wrote: »
    jedtb16_ESO wrote: »
    bg22 wrote: »
    jedtb16_ESO wrote: »
    each attempt is 50% chance. the outcome on one has no effect on the outcome of the next.

    I know this...

    But, by odds, it seems almost impossible.

    nope, as you have found, it's entirely possible. the odds are the same each time 50%

    Lol even though there is no connection between one pickpocketing attempt and the next, the odds of 8 failed attempts in a row are still astronomically low. 0.39% to be exact.

    You are making a mistake in saying the chance of failing/succeeding is always 50%. If try pickpocketing 8 times there's a number of possible outcomes. The number of possible outcomes is 2^8 (since you double the possible outcomes with every attempt). Always failing is one of these 2^8 = 256 outcomes and therefore has a 1/256~0.0039 chance of occurring.

    I wouldn't call 1/256 "astronomically low." Pretty similar to the odds of drawing pocket aces in hold 'em (1/220). So, not likely, but it happens all the time.
  • Ectheliontnacil
    Ectheliontnacil
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭
    LiquidPony wrote: »
    bg22 wrote: »
    I’ve failed a 50% to pickpocket 8 times in a row now.

    That doesn’t add up to me.

    The odds of failing 8 times in a row are 1/256.
    Ectheliontnacil wrote: »
    jedtb16_ESO wrote: »
    bg22 wrote: »
    jedtb16_ESO wrote: »
    each attempt is 50% chance. the outcome on one has no effect on the outcome of the next.

    I know this...

    But, by odds, it seems almost impossible.

    nope, as you have found, it's entirely possible. the odds are the same each time 50%

    Lol even though there is no connection between one pickpocketing attempt and the next, the odds of 8 failed attempts in a row are still astronomically low. 0.39% to be exact.

    You are making a mistake in saying the chance of failing/succeeding is always 50%. If try pickpocketing 8 times there's a number of possible outcomes. The number of possible outcomes is 2^8 (since you double the possible outcomes with every attempt). Always failing is one of these 2^8 = 256 outcomes and therefore has a 1/256~0.0039 chance of occurring.

    I wouldn't call 1/256 "astronomically low." Pretty similar to the odds of drawing pocket aces in hold 'em (1/220). So, not likely, but it happens all the time.

    Given the fact that 5% chance outcomes are often used in statistics to determine wether or not an assumption is correct, I think it's safe to say 0.39% is pretty low.

    (If the likelihood of an outcome is below 5% assuming certain probabilities and this outcome does occur, these probabilities are discarded, since we can say with 95% certainty that they're false. An example would be testing a coin. 50% assumed probability for either heads or tails. If however we got heads 8 times in a row, we would assume the coin to be weighted. We can say with 99.61% certainty that the coin is not properly balanced.)

    Not saying it's impossible, just very unlikely. And I think it's cool op shared this story with us. ^^
    Edited by Ectheliontnacil on May 2, 2018 7:21AM
  • Beardimus
    Beardimus
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    There are people in Vegas right now betting everything they have on Black with the same logic...
    Xbox One | EU | EP
    Beardimus : VR16 Dunmer MagSorc [RIP MagDW 2015-2018]
    Emperor of Sotha Sil 02-2018 & Sheogorath 05-2019
    1st Emperor of Ravenwatch
    Alts - - for the Lolz
    Archimus : Bosmer Thief / Archer / Werewolf
    Orcimus : Fat drunk Orc battlefield 1st aider
    Scalimus - Argonian Sorc Healer / Pet master

    Fighting small scale with : The SAXON Guild
    Fighting with [PvP] : The Undaunted Wolves
    Trading Guilds : TradersOfNirn | FourSquareTraders

    Xbox One | NA | EP
    Bëardimus : L43 Dunmer Magsorc / BG
    Heals-With-Pets : VR16 Argonian Sorc PvP / BG Healer
    Nordimus : VR16 Stamsorc
    Beardimus le 13iem : L30 Dunmer Magsorc Icereach
  • Lysette
    Lysette
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    bg22 wrote: »
    jedtb16_ESO wrote: »
    each attempt is 50% chance. the outcome on one has no effect on the outcome of the next.

    I know this...

    But, by odds, it seems almost impossible.

    About a 0.39% chance for it to happen - not very likely, but as well not that low, that it couldn't happen anytime soon.
  • Gythral
    Gythral
    ✭✭✭✭✭
    ✭✭✭
    Beardimus wrote: »
    There are people in Vegas right now betting everything they have on Black with the same logic...

    yep and that table only sees red today & that's just random chance for you, not a rigged table!
    Edited by Gythral on May 2, 2018 7:25AM
    “Be as a tower, that, firmly set,
    Shakes not its top for any blast that blows!”
    Dante Alighieri, The Divine Comedy
Sign In or Register to comment.