The Elder Scrolls Online

50% pickpocket chance... failed 8 times now.

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bg22
bg22
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I’ve failed a 50% to pickpocket 8 times in a row now.

That doesn’t add up to me.
  • jedtb16_ESO
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    each attempt is 50% chance. the outcome on one has no effect on the outcome of the next.
  • redspecter23
    redspecter23
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    It's unlikely but totally possible.
  • testd4n1
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    It can happen. Plus, it you might be getting seen by another NPC, not necessarily the one you are attempting to pick.
  • bg22
    bg22
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    jedtb16_ESO wrote: »
    each attempt is 50% chance. the outcome on one has no effect on the outcome of the next.

    I know this...

    But, by odds, it seems almost impossible.
  • Cadbury
    Cadbury
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    You just have really bad luck
    "If a person is truly desirous of something, perhaps being set on fire does not seem so bad."
  • jedtb16_ESO
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    bg22 wrote: »
    jedtb16_ESO wrote: »
    each attempt is 50% chance. the outcome on one has no effect on the outcome of the next.

    I know this...

    But, by odds, it seems almost impossible.

    nope, as you have found, it's entirely possible. the odds are the same each time 50%
  • redspecter23
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    bg22 wrote: »
    jedtb16_ESO wrote: »
    each attempt is 50% chance. the outcome on one has no effect on the outcome of the next.

    I know this...

    But, by odds, it seems almost impossible.

    My quick math puts it somewhere around 1 in 300. Hardly astronomical odds. If you pick enough pockets in game, you'll see these outliers from time to time.
  • bg22
    bg22
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    Cadbury wrote: »
    You just have really bad luck

    I’m aware.

    But I would bet anything that if I flipped a coin 8 tines, I would definitely get a different result at least once.

    Just seems HIGHLY unlikely that the chance is actually 50/50.
  • Kodrac
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    No skill points in Legerdemain?
  • Zordrage
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    So its like Crown Crates then...
  • Ley
    Ley
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    My worst streak was failing 8 pick pocketing attempts in a row with 90% chance of success.
    Leylith - MagSorc | Leyloth - StamPlar | Leynerd - MagPlar | Leylit - StamBlade | Ley Eviticus - StamDK | Leydor - MagDen | Leylum - StamSorc | Leylux - MagBlade
  • Tandor
    Tandor
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    Far too small a sample to carry any meaning.

    I wonder if anyone would come here and post that the odds were wrong if they'd picked 8 pockets at 50% chance and succeeded 6 times :wink: ?

  • Androconium
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    bg22 wrote: »
    I’ve failed a 50% to pickpocket 8 times in a row now.

    That doesn’t add up to me.

    get better lockpicks.
  • xbobx
    xbobx
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    i fail at 90% regularly.

    I have failed opening a 75% chance chest 5 times in a row.

    math is not their strong suit
  • xbobx
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    Ley wrote: »
    My worst streak was failing 8 pick pocketing attempts in a row with 90% chance of success.

    did you happen to be in vvardenfell?

    i find there is something wrong there. I fail at 100 percent a lot.
  • grumlins
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    I would suggest doing other things such as stealing from boxes before trying to pickpocket.
  • Potenza
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    bg22 wrote: »
    Cadbury wrote: »
    You just have really bad luck

    I’m aware.

    But I would bet anything that if I flipped a coin 8 tines, I would definitely get a different result at least once.

    Just seems HIGHLY unlikely that the chance is actually 50/50.

    Actually coin flipping if done exactly the same way each time will have the same result each time - unless something changed like the side of the coin you start with, hand angle, height and so on. Coin flipping is not really 50/50.
    Edited by Potenza on May 1, 2018 4:08PM
  • lihentian
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    95% chance fail 4 times in a row...........
  • Yolokin_Swagonborn
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    uR4WuQ0.gif
  • Ley
    Ley
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    xbobx wrote: »
    Ley wrote: »
    My worst streak was failing 8 pick pocketing attempts in a row with 90% chance of success.

    did you happen to be in vvardenfell?

    i find there is something wrong there. I fail at 100 percent a lot.

    I was but that's probably just circumstantial, considering Vvardenfell is pretty much the only place I go thieving.
    Leylith - MagSorc | Leyloth - StamPlar | Leynerd - MagPlar | Leylit - StamBlade | Ley Eviticus - StamDK | Leydor - MagDen | Leylum - StamSorc | Leylux - MagBlade
  • Nemesis7884
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    8x50% doesn't mean 400% chance over all

    flat,800x800,075,f.u2.jpg
  • Priyasekarssk
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    bg22 wrote: »
    I’ve failed a 50% to pickpocket 8 times in a row now.

    That doesn’t add up to me.

    Does it matter ? Legendary gear upgrades always fail with 87.5 percent chance. Never ever try anything less than 100 percent chance during legendary upgrades. You will always fail. ZOs maths always work differently.
    Edited by Priyasekarssk on May 1, 2018 4:43PM
  • Olen_Mikko
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    50 % change doesn't mean that every other pickpocket is successful.
    NB enthusiastic:
    1. Woodhippie stamblade - DW hard-hitter / PvE
    2. Know-it-all elf Magblade - Healer / PvE & PvP
    3. Hate-them-all elf Magblade - Destrostaff AoE monster / PvE
    4. Cyrodiil-Refugee stamblade - Stamina Tank / PvE

    Go dominion or go home

    Nightblade-Hipster. I played Nightblade before it was cool - from 1.5 onwards.
  • Nyladreas
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    I've had days where I pickpocketed every NPC in Vivec 3 times in a row not getting caught ONCE. Including guards, cause I'm an idiot. Then days I'd get caught 5 times in a row with 90/95% chance lol.

    It's what it is. A CHANCE.

    Also make sure you're not in line of sight of other close range NPCs. Doesn't matter if you are hidden. If you stay close enough they'll witness it anyway.
    Edited by Nyladreas on May 1, 2018 4:59PM
  • rfennell_ESO
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    bg22 wrote: »
    I’ve failed a 50% to pickpocket 8 times in a row now.

    That doesn’t add up to me.

    Statistically it would be a 1/256 chance happening.

    But, keep in mind that most mmo's and computer games don't actually math to calculate things and instead use tables to simplify calculations.
    Edited by rfennell_ESO on May 1, 2018 6:09PM
  • rfennell_ESO
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    bg22 wrote: »
    Cadbury wrote: »
    You just have really bad luck

    I’m aware.

    But I would bet anything that if I flipped a coin 8 tines, I would definitely get a different result at least once.

    Just seems HIGHLY unlikely that the chance is actually 50/50.

    The real question is if you flipped tails 8 times in a row, would you wager heavily on heads for the 9th flip?
  • Sting864
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    bg22 wrote: »
    I’ve failed a 50% to pickpocket 8 times in a row now.

    That doesn’t add up to me.

    Stay in school... Maybe pick-up a Statistics class... As has been said... previous results have no effect on future events...
  • rfennell_ESO
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    Sting864 wrote: »
    bg22 wrote: »
    I’ve failed a 50% to pickpocket 8 times in a row now.

    That doesn’t add up to me.

    Stay in school... Maybe pick-up a Statistics class... As has been said... previous results have no effect on future events...

    In this case previous results are not linked to future events, but there is a probability of strings of failures occurring.
  • molecule
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    In theory a 50% chance could fail everytime, for ever.
  • MaxwellC
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    @bg22 Send this to @ZOS_GinaBruno Caption: Come on ZOS!
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