1 out of 6 18 42

Only have the time to grind on the weekends with work, and training. So.. Looks like I'll need to sell myself out on a Rawlkha street corner after the event ends to pay the 10M everyone will be asking for the bits I don't get.

1 out of 90.

I think I'm misslucky

A lot of reports saying it drops on first box.

Seems to be like the transmutation stones with 1 WC motif guaranteed per day (and per character?).

Currently at 1 out of 40 or so.

Asmael wrote: »

A lot of reports saying it drops on first box.

Seems to be like the transmutation stones with 1 WC motif guaranteed per day (and per character?).

Currently at 1 out of 40 or so.

Mine was from my first box. 1 out of 75.

1 out of like 30 boxes

Asmael wrote: »

A lot of reports saying it drops on first box.

Seems to be like the transmutation stones with 1 WC motif guaranteed per day (and per character?).

Currently at 1 out of 40 or so.

Hmm, maybe but definitely not per character.

I indeed got 1 on my very first box. This box even contained a malacath boots motif. This would explain why I got 2 motifs in 1 box (I've a screenshot of this)

All from crafting writs:

6 Motifs with two of them worm cult from 7 writs turned in by my 6 times master crafter (one left over from yesterday)

0 motifs from 10 writs turned in by my four level 1 crafters.

Got 1 in my first drop..none since in about 20

Out of 84 Boxes, I got 3 Drops, two Swords and something else, Shoulders I think.

ive done 15 dailies so far and havent gotten a single page.

I feel like the drop rate for a limited time event being this rare is a bit on the bull shizzle side of things. in the past, skinchanger and hollowjack dropped like candy. if they were going to make it hard to get - just sell it in the crown store.

Recremen wrote: »

2 Worm Cult motifs after 174 writs. Other people seem to be doing well with it though so I don't doubt I'm just an outlier this round.

Same 2 out of 190 boxes for me

hot helm first box lol

I got 3 Worm Cult motifs in the first 5 boxes I opened this morning.

Judging by the numbers being reported it doesn't feel like it's 100% random. A few thoughts.

There seem to be 2 rolls for motifs in any given box. Your "rare" prize in a box has a chance to be a motif page from the large pool (not including Worm Cult). This would appear to be something around 20% - 30%. You then have a second roll for a chance at a Worm Cult motif (or Worm Cult style stone) at around 4% - 5%. This would be why you often see a second motif when a WC chapter appears. It would also match the wording used by ZOS in the announcement that WC pages would be "rarer" than other motifs. They aren't rarer than any single given page, but they are going to drop less than another page in general.

Also, there may be some RNG weighting for your first box or boxes possibly every day, similar to how rewards for the worthy geodes work. A great number of people are reporting getting WC motif pages very early, then either nothing or large gaps after that between pulls. There may be a weighted (80% chance maybe?) chance of a WC motif page each day, with perhaps a 20 hour cooldown like RftW geodes. Any boxes opened after this weighted box still have a chance of a WC drop but at a much reduced rate.

Anyway, just throwing some ideas out there based on what's being posted.

60 boxes, 3 pages. Plenty of other great stuff as well