Statistical Probability of Maelstrom Drops

IlCanis_LupuslI · November 2017

Buffler wrote: »

Only 100 runs. I know people that did over 1000 and still didnt get a sharpened inferno.

Got it on the First Run sharpened. Lightning on 3rd defending.
AND IM A FLIPPING STAM BLADE!!!
WHAT THE HEY AM I SUPPOSED TO DO WITH CURRENTLY 3 sharpened 1 precise inferno staves(20 runs) ???

Qbiken · November 2017

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/306445/1-5k-vmsa-runs-loot-distribution-waiting-for-acknowledgement/p1

Old thread about this matter that gives a lot of insight into vMA loot. Note that this post was made before ZOS made their latest changes to the loot-table (such as 2x dualwield weapons)

JKith · November 2017

That is a super helpful article, which I plan on reading more in depth when I have time.

My first 15 runs, I wrote down the loot, then I just stopped. But I got 3 Sharpened Bows on the first 15 runs. If my main were a stam character, I would have been done with vMA on my 5th run lol!!

Sword Precise & Shield Nirnhoned
Dagger Powered
Battle Axe Powered
Restoration Staff Defending
Bow Sharpened
Axe Sharpened (back when two didn’t drop)
Resto Staff Powered
Bow Sharpened (second one)
Battle Axe Infused
Axe charged and dagger infused
Battle axe decisive
Great sword Precise
Bow Sharpened (3rd one)
Battle Axe Nirnhoned
Resto Staff Nirnhoned

Kanar · November 2017

Zagnut123Zagnut123 wrote: »

I'm pretty sure the devs have stated that vma has categories for its drops then it chooses type. So for example the rng god chooses destro but there there are three so now it chooses frost or something. Last year some ppl figured out witch weapon types were weighted and to what percent. U might be able to dig it up.

That was the old way. Some time ago it was changed so all weapons are considered at one pass. This was a nerf to bow drops. They further nerfed bow drops by some undetermined amount, just cause.

It's in a patch note but I'm not gonna spend the time to find it again.

GrigorijMalahevich · November 2017

Larsay wrote: »

Valera Progib wrote: »

vMA drop rate is 100%. Basically every time you complete veteran maelstrom arena you get a vMA weapon.

Don’t thank me.

Mind officially blown...

200% drop rate during the Wrothgar anniversary!

I know right. It is quick Maths with some logic on top.

Kanar · November 2017

I was bored so went and found it. Was homestead patch
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/318838/pc-mac-patch-notes-v2-7-5#latest

Adjusted the distribution of Maelstrom weapons obtained from the Maelstrom Arena via the Leaderboards and drops.
Previously, this was divided evenly by weapon category (Destruction Staff, Two Hand, etc). Now, it is based on the individual item type (Dagger, One Handed Sword, etc), and all damage weapons within the item type have an equal probability to drop.
In addition, when a Dual Wield weapon is awarded, you will receive two Dual Wield weapons.
We also slightly reduced the drop chance for Healing Staves, Bows, and One Hand and Shields.

JKith · November 2017

Interesting they reduced slightly drop chance for Healing Staves, bows and 1h&s,.. and those are the ones I got the most of.

I actually think ZoS doesn't know what the drop chances are, or are unable to determine what the actual RNG is. But that's just speculation.

JKith · November 2017

OMG guys!! I just finished yet another vMA run, and before opening the chest I decided to ask a guild to wish me luck because I wanted a lightning staff... 4 people chimed in and said Good luck!,... and then I opened the chest and GOT MY LIGHTNING STAFF!!!! Seriously! haha... i'm so happy. It's decisive trait, so i'm going to transmute it to maybe Infused or something... going to do test on PTS to see best trait. I CAN'T BELIEVE IT!!! Woooo Hooooo!!!

Ironically i'm addicted to vMA so i'm still going to run it maybe on another character,... but at least it will be relaxed and WITH MY LIGHTNING STAFF!!

Did I mention I was excited and happy?

Kanar · November 2017

JKith wrote: »

OMG guys!! I just finished yet another vMA run, and before opening the chest I decided to ask a guild to wish me luck because I wanted a lightning staff... 4 people chimed in and said Good luck!,... and then I opened the chest and GOT MY LIGHTNING STAFF!!!! Seriously! haha... i'm so happy. It's decisive trait, so i'm going to transmute it to maybe Infused or something... going to do test on PTS to see best trait. I CAN'T BELIEVE IT!!! Woooo Hooooo!!!

Ironically i'm addicted to vMA so i'm still going to run it maybe on another character,... but at least it will be relaxed and WITH MY LIGHTNING STAFF!!

Did I mention I was excited and happy?

Congratz! I remember it felt damned good when I got my bow (sharpened on the first bow drop)

Qbiken · November 2017

Kanar wrote: »

I was bored so went and found it. Was homestead patch
https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/318838/pc-mac-patch-notes-v2-7-5#latest

Adjusted the distribution of Maelstrom weapons obtained from the Maelstrom Arena via the Leaderboards and drops.
Previously, this was divided evenly by weapon category (Destruction Staff, Two Hand, etc). Now, it is based on the individual item type (Dagger, One Handed Sword, etc), and all damage weapons within the item type have an equal probability to drop.
In addition, when a Dual Wield weapon is awarded, you will receive two Dual Wield weapons.
We also slightly reduced the drop chance for Healing Staves, Bows, and One Hand and Shields.

These changes I believe was a result of this thread:

https://forums.elderscrollsonline.com/en/discussion/306445/1-5k-vmsa-runs-loot-distribution-waiting-for-acknowledgement/p1

Feanor · November 2017

Frost staves are pretty common for me lately -.-