Statistical Probability of Maelstrom Drops

JKith · November 2017

I've been through the arena maybe 100 times? I've lost count in the mid-70's. Don't get me wrong, I love Maelstrom Arena, I really enjoy it, and even if I get the drop i'm looking for "Lighting Staff" I'm still going to run it weekly for the leaderboard challenge, but after this many runs, this is what I have, this doesn't include what I deconned because it was garbage.

4 Full sets of Duel Wield Weapons,
2 Sets Sword and Shield
10+ Bows
4 Frost Staffs
5 Great swords
6 2h Axes
8 Mauls
6 Resto Staffs
3 Swords

So basically, after probably 100 runs, I have 2+ of EVERY KIND OF WEAPON except the only weapon i'm looking for, Lighting Staff. I also don't have an Inferno staff.

Those who know me will see this as a broken record, but if it is true that staffs have the same drop rate, which i'm highly suspicious of after months doing these runs btw,... some math genius, could you calculate the statistical probability of doing 100 runs and not getting even ONE lightning staff.

I want to know how unlucky i am, and mindlessly redo Maelstrom Arena over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again for the hope, the slight glimmer, that i'll get a lightning staff.....

Rant over.

nnargun · November 2017

If drop rate for every weapon is the same it's pretty easy:

((n-1)/(n))^m

n: number of weapon types dropable
m: number of total runs

starkerealm · November 2017

Alternately, the drop rates for Maelstrom are incredibly easy to calculate:

Stuff you don't want: 95%
Stuff you find kinda interesting: 4.99%
Stuff you actually want: 0.01%
Stuff you need from your build: 0%

Lord_Eomer · November 2017

I have over 300 VMA weapons, every weapon in all trait.

After CWC patch, all i used is bow. With good rotation you even do not need a Destro.

I prefer 5 piece Juliano / 5 piece MD (1 x sword) and monster set!

Even 4 piece IA with Monster Set is better, spell crit is already low after Thief Mundus change also most builds running Apprentice Mundus with Nirn trait!

GrigorijMalahevich · November 2017

vMA drop rate is 100%. Basically every time you complete veteran maelstrom arena you get a vMA weapon.

Don’t thank me.

Oakmontowls_ESO · November 2017

Just roll a stam character to do it. As soon as I did the game got insulted and dropped a sharpened inferno and gave a sharpened lightning in the leader board.

starkerealm · November 2017

Oakmontowls_ESO wrote: »

Just roll a stam character to do it. As soon as I did the game got insulted and dropped a sharpened inferno and gave a sharpened lightning in the leader board.

Pretty much this. It's not a real thing, but it does work, hilariously.

kojou · November 2017

starkerealm wrote: »

Oakmontowls_ESO wrote: »

Just roll a stam character to do it. As soon as I did the game got insulted and dropped a sharpened inferno and gave a sharpened lightning in the leader board.

Pretty much this. It's not a real thing, but it does work, hilariously.

I always wondered if the game had a trolling mechanic you could use against it...

Buffler · November 2017

Only 100 runs. I know people that did over 1000 and still didnt get a sharpened inferno.

GrigorijMalahevich · November 2017

Buffler wrote: »

Only 100 runs. I know people that did over 1000 and still didnt get a sharpened inferno.

Haha, about 30-40 runs and two inferno sharp in a row for weekly rewards

JKith · November 2017

So I’m terrible at math and didn’t know what ^ meant, so I just looked up an equation for probability and got this.

There are 17 weapons that are “supposed” to have equal chances, which means there is a 5.88% chance (100/17) if one completes vMA to get a lightning staff from the chest.

Then the math page I was on, said multiply the number of attempts by the percentage chance in decimal form, in this case 0.0588 times 100, which means, according to this math page, on average I should get 5 lightning staffs for every 100 vMA runs, or 5 of any one kind of weapon on average.

Is my math wrong? If not, I defied the odds by getting over 10 bows, 20 DW weapons and not even a single lightning or inferno

IronCrystal · November 2017

Through my extensive testing, I've found that vMA has a 100% chance of dropping weapons upon completion.

Shadzilla · November 2017

Took me about 250 runs for my sharpened inferno, which I got on the last day of the double drop event about a year ago. Have every other weapon as well. Have not been back since, literally have not run vma for around a year.

nnargun · November 2017

^ this means powered.

With 17 weapons the probability to not even get one lightning staff in 100 runs is:

(16/17)^100=0.00233

or 0.23 %

edit: btw the probability for not getting a lightning and also not an inferno staff is:

(15/17)^100=0.0000037

or 0.00037 % (in other words: happens to only one in roughly 270,000 people)

So yeah, you're pretty unlucky. If it makes you feel better: This is most probably a world record and you don't need to worry too much that anybody will brake it anytime soon

Qbiken · November 2017

Buffler wrote: »

Only 100 runs. I know people that did over 1000 and still didnt get a sharpened inferno.

People who says they´ve done a thousand runs without ACTUALLY counting is lying.....Those 1k runs are probably more like 400.....

Buffler · November 2017

Qbiken wrote: »

Buffler wrote: »

Only 100 runs. I know people that did over 1000 and still didnt get a sharpened inferno.

People who says they´ve done a thousand runs without ACTUALLY counting is lying.....Those 1k runs are probably more like 400.....

Theres a well known you tuber who did 1500 runs before he got his. If my friends say they ran it 1000 times, no reason to disbelieve them.

getemshauna · November 2017

In my 288 runs, I got 3 Inferno Staves (Powered, Precise, Sharpened) and 1 Sharpened Lightning. Can post a full list if someone is interested.

Princess_Ciri · November 2017

you're just unlucky. I did about 15 vMA runs and got 2 lightning staves, 1 precise and 1 powered. And I got 1 sharp fire, 1 defending fire, then a nirnhoned bow, infused bow........

everything else i picked up was a mixture of resto staves, bows with bad traits and frost staves/dw/sword and board.

Asardes · November 2017

I did around 100 runs in total on 4 characters, of which 2 regularly qualify for the leaderboard. The drop rate has been pretty well balanced for me. Now I only run it to keep myself trained on those characters as I'm relatively new as DD - only starting playing as one when I started doing vMA, having played for 2 years almost exclusively as tank. I didn't pay attention which character got what but it may well be that part of the RNG seed is based on character variables. So it's a safe bet to run it on multiple, preferably on classes where the leaderboards don't fill at the end of the week to get a chance at an extra weapon: Templar, DK and Warden on my server.

tommalmm · November 2017

You were so lucky with the bows. I've farmed vMA few months ago specifically to get the bow. Got the first one (powered) after 140 runs. Got nirhoned after 160 runs. I'm doing vMA once a week for fun now. On the other hand, I've got 1h and 2h in pretty much all types and traits and a handful of flame/lightning staves in good traits. Just not the bow.

But, 160 runs is not really representative. You'd need much muuuuuch more to see the intended ratios.

menschikov2 · November 2017

You should just farm with a Stam-Char for Magika-Weapons^^ I had with my stam-NB:
10 Healingstaffs,
4 Fire
2 Lightning
7 Weapon-Shield
1 tow Weapons
1 Bow (after perhaps 40 Runs)
4 2hand

nnargun · November 2017

I highly doubt that magicka weapons drop more often for stam chars and the other way around. Is there any real statistic on this? Your numbers don't even add up to total runs.

edit: It may feel like it for magicka chars though as there are much more stam weapons than magicka weapons. So in total obviously more stam weapons drop. For any char.

Larsay · November 2017

Valera Progib wrote: »

vMA drop rate is 100%. Basically every time you complete veteran maelstrom arena you get a vMA weapon.

Don’t thank me.

Mind officially blown...

200% drop rate during the Wrothgar anniversary!

JKith · November 2017

What's the probability of getting 4 Nirnhoned Frost Staffs within 10 runs? That just happened to me,.. got my 4th Nirnhoned Frost Staff with about a 10 run span....... I really can't help but conclude this random / equal drop stuff is bogus

Well,.. I got quite a bit of steam left in me,... so i'm going to do at least a couple hundred more runs.

Thanks for the math btw,.. i sure do feel lucky that I'm part of something that only 0.00037 % of people can experience

nnargun · November 2017

I think the probability for exactly 4 times the same trait on the same weapon in 10 runs is this:

(1/153)^4*(152/153)^6=0.0000000018=1.8x10^-9

That's one in more than half a billion.

(considering 17 weapons and 9 possible trait and everything has same drop rate)

JKith · November 2017

I love people who know math

Thanks.

I must be the (un)luckiest person on the planet if it's 0.00000018 % chance.... so basically, it's more likely I get struck by lightning, win the lotto, and encounter aliens than it is to get 4 Frost Staffs in Nirnhoned trait 4 times in 10 runs.....

or maybe,.. to create a bigger conspiracy,... RNG isn't equal chances? huh ZOS?

btw @menschikov2 if you have a list of drops you actually got, I would be quite interested in seeing that list.

Zaldan · November 2017

given how good ZO$ are at coding without bugs the drop chance is supposed to be equal but might not be and there's no way in hell ZO$ would know

DjMuscleboy02 · November 2017

I've done 87 runs on PC with no bow in any trait. Well over a thousand on Xbox and still no sharpened inferno (not that I need one anymore)

nnargun · November 2017

Honestly, you can calculate such overwhelmingly low probabilities for many many things that happen to you during the day.

One example:

You finish vMA for the first time and get an infused mace, second time you get sharpened dagger, third time you get nirnhoned bow, fourth time you get defending frost staff. The probability for this to happen is (1/153)^4=0.0000000018. You'd never really wonder about or even notice this though. Statistics are a nice tool to impress with amazingly large/small numbers. And in contrary to what many people believe, they are a very bad tool for predicting the future.

Asardes · November 2017

One thing that I've noticed only yesterday, when my leaderboard reward mail came is that now maces and swords also come with cruel flurry enchant, they only came with rampaging slash until this patch. Not that any of those weapons matter much today but they dilute the drop pool further for other kinds of weapons. http://elderscrollsonline.wiki.fextralife.com/Maelstrom+Weapons

Zagnut123Zagnut123 · November 2017

I'm pretty sure the devs have stated that vma has categories for its drops then it chooses type. So for example the rng god chooses destro but there there are three so now it chooses frost or something. Last year some ppl figured out witch weapon types were weighted and to what percent. U might be able to dig it up.