Refined 10 100 ores - results

aaisoaho · August 2017

Hello,
Last week, some guildies were discussing how much tempering alloys you get by refining a stack of rubedite ore and because they were uncertain, I decided to test it myself.
I bought and refined 10 100 rubedite ore on PC EU with my maxed crafter character - because science.

So, from 10 100 rubedite ore, I got:
8579 Rubedite ingots
81 solvents
46 alloys
126 dwarven oils
150 honing stones
14 almandines
15 amethysts
21 bloodstones
12 carnelians
19 chysolites
18 citrines
18 diamonds
16 emeralds
18 fire opals
21 garnets
18 jades
21 quartzes
20 rubys
19 sapphires
23 sardonyxes
18 turquoises

I got from 1 stack of ore on average:
170 rubedite ingots
2 solvents
1 tempering alloy
2 dwarven oils
3 honing stones
AND some trait gems.

If you are wondering, buying unrefined materials is not profitable ATM. (you end up losing something like 500 - 1 000 gold minus taxes)

Funny sidenotes from my experiment:
This experiment cost around 550k gold.
Longest streak of getting tempering alloys was 3 refinements.
Longest streak of not getting tempering alloys was somewhere around 300 ores. (300 ores without getting a single tempering ore)
I got these results by turning auto-craftbag off and emptying my inventory before refining.
This experiment took around 10 minutes to do. (Because I listened the whole Blue Danube Waltz by Johann Strauss II during refining aka spamming 'R'-key)

SoLooney · August 2017

dem alloys though

now refine 100,000 ore please

Invincible · September 2017

I got 7 dreugh wax out of 300 cloth tonight.

Eyesinthedrk · September 2017

Law of probably (RNGesus rules) say that on a long enough time frame, you will always be square with the house. For gold mats that roughly 1 gold mat per 200 raw mats. On an infinant scale, you will have as many win streaks and loose streaks and will return to even stevens and infinant number of times.

So how do i use this knowledge to my advantage? I prioritize them as 1 temps, 2 wax, 3 rosin. Temps most imprtant because highest value and if you're golding out a tank, you could need 72 to fully upgrade. Rosin last because of low value and you'll never need more than 16 for any character.

Now I treat it like card counting. I'm going to win and I'm going to loose but I want to win on temps and loose on wood. So refine wax to set the table. Refine 1000 silk if I get more than 5 wax for that 1000 then I owe the house. I can expect to loose on the next batch. So let's pay those losses on wood. Refine 1000 if I come back with 3 or 4 rosin then the deck is hot again and I can expect to do better than the average on temps. Had the wax come up short, that would mean the deck is hot and it's straight to temps. Then wood to even it all out.

It's still a gamble. And some days you're going to loose on all three, and some days you'll win on all three. But over the long haul it's been working as I have intended getting about 30% more temps than rosin.

I_killed_Vivec · September 2017

Eyesinthedrk wrote: »

Law of probably (RNGesus rules) say that on a long enough time frame, you will always be square with the house. For gold mats that roughly 1 gold mat per 200 raw mats. On an infinant scale, you will have as many win streaks and loose streaks and will return to even stevens and infinant number of times.

So how do i use this knowledge to my advantage? I prioritize them as 1 temps, 2 wax, 3 rosin. Temps most imprtant because highest value and if you're golding out a tank, you could need 72 to fully upgrade. Rosin last because of low value and you'll never need more than 16 for any character.

Now I treat it like card counting. I'm going to win and I'm going to loose but I want to win on temps and loose on wood. So refine wax to set the table. Refine 1000 silk if I get more than 5 wax for that 1000 then I owe the house. I can expect to loose on the next batch. So let's pay those losses on wood. Refine 1000 if I come back with 3 or 4 rosin then the deck is hot again and I can expect to do better than the average on temps. Had the wax come up short, that would mean the deck is hot and it's straight to temps. Then wood to even it all out.

It's still a gamble. And some days you're going to loose on all three, and some days you'll win on all three. But over the long haul it's been working as I have intended getting about 30% more temps than rosin.

But...

The game is paying out on all the players refining all the materials all the time. The RNG engines are constantly pumping out the odds - and here's the important part, the odds are generated over all the players. You don't have your own personal line of random numbers that has to give a yield of 1 in 200 over time.

Unfortunately this means that just as you have hot streaks and cold streaks, there are players who do better than average and players who do worse than average.

Which explains how some people had completed a couple of psijic ambrosia recipes before others had even seen their first fragment...