Ninja nerf equipment crafting writs?

Lokov · January 2017

Hello!
I noticed that the last 7-10 days chance of receiving gold temper/tannin/rosin from daily crafting writs became significantly lower
I do this writs every day with 3 characters about 2 mounths and I received at least one gold thing from each character (3 writs per character) sometimes it was more then 1 from each
But now very often happens so, that you don't receive any from all 9 equipment crafting writs completed by 3 characters.

Is something wrong with system or chance was nerfed?

Turelus · January 2017

You've just had a string of bad lucky with the random drops.

I've been doing them all week on a single character and had lots of tempers.

After saying that maybe I stole your luck the last week... Sorry.

Nestor · January 2017

It ebbs and flows, but mostly ebbs.

STEVIL · January 2017

yesterday i was like "holy #$%^ what a haul on golds from writs" because they kept dropping in way above normal. toiday was above average. Days nbfroree -lower.

its just what you see with a low percentage change. not hard to see chains of nada.

If the odds of a kuta are 1 in 20... the odds of not seeing a kuta in five consecutive pulls is over 75%.

davey1107 · January 2017

My hypothesis is that high-level rewards like gold tempers aren't just a set percent chance from writ or refining, but that the game also factors in how many mats are active in the game. Therefore, if people start hoarding alloys then the drop rate slows.

There is no way to confirm this for sure, but in ESO Live they have discussed before the ability for the Devs to see what's active in the game. For example, in that discussion they knew how many forward camps were in inventories, and how many belonged to active players. So they know how many mats are out there and likely try to prevent market crashes.

Oreyn_Bearclaw · January 2017

They will never answer this question. I have been doing writs on 4-8 toons since they were released, and every few months I start to think the same thing, and then the gold mats will flood in for a few days. It's RNG unfortunately. Now do I think they sometimes adjust RNG on this sort of thing based on what they are seeing in the market without telling us? Probably...

In reality, writs I believe took a pretty big nerf latch patch. The input costs have drastically increased, and I think the output has dropped slightly. This will change next patch, obviously. Everyone and their mom will be doing writs.