Alloy percentages

wildx · January 2017

Any idea what the percentage chance of obtaining an alloy from rubadite ore. I'm currently sitting on 4500 ore and am curious

Nestor · January 2017

Same as all other raw mats, about 1% to 5%

Edit I was being Pessimistic as I just ran into a band of miserly RNG

Stania · January 2017

Several people made spreadsheets of their drops when they refined thousands of ores and their numbers are very close.

For tempering alloys it's around 2.5-3% for each refinement. I usually get one per 160-300 rubedite ores, though I hit jackpot a couple of times and got two in a batch of 150 ores, with the metal extraction perk maxed out.

wildx · January 2017

Thanks I'm new to crafting so I wasn't aware of this information

Feric51 · January 2017

I would love to be able to produce detailed information regarding all the RNG myths and rumors I've heard regarding material refinement. The above answers follow pretty much in line with the regularly accepted percentages, and I believe to be the most credible ones.

There are, however, theories out there that refining at a crafting station with multiple players also doing the same thing can have a significant impact on your odds. Of course, some say it will increase your odds, others say it will decrease them. As far as I know there has never been an official statement from ZOS regarding the effect of other players' actions on your personal refining chances.

Another theory states that you'll have greater luck when refining large quantities of raw materials at one time rather than small doses here and there. I personally refine almost every day, even if I haven't been mat farming, which means I'm only doing maybe 2 refinements per material off just what I get from hirelings. And, to be honest, I seem to experience fantastic RNG some days with only 20-30 raw material. So is there any merit in holding onto large stacks before refining? I can't say one way or another, but I just know I have had no issues getting gold temps with my, low-quantity method.

Unfortunately if you're targeting tempering alloys, they seem to have the lowest percentage of all the gold temps. Rosin seems to be the easiest to come by, with dreugh wax being slightly less plentiful, and alloy being about 1/3 the rate of either the previous two. All I can say is, keep trying and don't stop farming!

Stania · January 2017

Feric51 wrote: »

There are, however, theories out there that refining at a crafting station with multiple players also doing the same thing can have a significant impact on your odds. Of course, some say it will increase your odds, others say it will decrease them. As far as I know there has never been an official statement from ZOS regarding the effect of other players' actions on your personal refining chances.

That would make sense, pretty much like the fishing ponds where the chances of getting rarer fishes raise if more than one player is in the same pond. But too many can lower the rates and empty the pond in little time, three or four people is the ideal amount to get the best chances.

And now that you mentioned it, I remember getting more tempering materials when I'm in Riften and Windhelm's crafting stations, where you can always find a small group of people and not a lot like in Davon's Watch, while I'm less lucky in set crafting stations where there's almost no people.

Feric51 wrote: »

Another theory states that you'll have greater luck when refining large quantities of raw materials at one time rather than small doses here and there.

I noticed that too, it's like if the chances raise a little with each time you refine something without leaving the station.

helediron · January 2017

HAH, refining conspiracy time! Now where did i put my standard answer...
- All the tricks are nonsense. Yes, really.
- Refine golden drop rate is 5% per refine, i.e. one golden from 200 mats = 20 refines on average.
- You need to refine large batches to get the average.
- 5000 mats is the minimum to get consistently between 4% and 6%.
- All types (wood, cloth, leather, ore) have same 5% rate.
- All levels of mats have same 5% rate.
- My average is calculated from documented refines totalling over 350,000 mats.

BTW i tested today refining in PTS. Drop rate of goldens from refining in Homestead is 5%. Tested with 27,000 mats.

Akrasjel · January 2017

Last time i got 19 or 20 golden from a batch of around 2200+

Oreyn_Bearclaw · January 2017

Akrasjel wrote: »

Last time i got 19 or 20 golden from a batch of around 2200+

Thats good RNG.

I usually Decon in batches of a few K. I expect about 1 gold temper per 200 refined (5%). You wont get hard data as nobody from ZOS releases it. If you look at prices, a stack (200) of refined materials costs X and a stack of the corresponding raw Mats is X + Price of associated Temper. So I dont think that is far form the truth.

helediron wrote: »

HAH, refining conspiracy time! Now where did i put my standard answer...
- All the tricks are nonsense. Yes, really.
- Refine golden drop rate is 5% per refine, i.e. one golden from 200 mats = 20 refines on average.
- You need to refine large batches to get the average.
- 5000 mats is the minimum to get consistently between 4% and 6%.
- All types (wood, cloth, leather, ore) have same 5% rate.
- All levels of mats have same 5% rate.
- My average is calculated from documented refines totalling over 350,000 mats.

BTW i tested today refining in PTS. Drop rate of goldens from refining in Homestead is 5%. Tested with 27,000 mats.

Now that is some nice data. Conspiracies aside, I do have a lucky crafting station I always use.

You dont by chance have data on the likelihood of getting a gold mat from deconning a gold piece of gear do you? My instinct is its about 50/50 with a maxed out crafter. Should definitely be higher, but thats a different debate.

helediron · January 2017

Oreyn_Bearclaw wrote: »

...snip...
You dont by chance have data on the likelihood of getting a gold mat from deconning a gold piece of gear do you? My instinct is its about 50/50 with a maxed out crafter. Should definitely be higher, but thats a different debate.

I once deconstructed 13 golden VR12/14 items (including my AA Mage set

) and i got seven goldens back. So it looks like 50%.