I am joining the club of people that suspect broken RNG...

UltimaJoe777 · August 2016

I had 2 Gold Keys and used them both, got Well-Fitted Blood Spawn Epaulets with Magicka Enchantment from BOTH Keys. Now I know RNG is a jerk at times but that is just WAY too suspect. I think perhaps you should look into your Random Number Generator Zenimax to make sure it isn't literally broken.

P.S. I'm salty over what I got but it isn't why I suspect broken RNG. The odds of getting the exact same Shoulders twice out of 12 sets and 8 traits is far too large for it to be coincidence...

SirAndy · August 2016

UltimaJoe777 wrote: »

Now I know RNG is a jerk at times but that is just WAY too suspect.

Try improving an item with less than 100% chance and watch ZOS RNG at its worst.

Clearly, ZOS 90% chance and ROW 90% chance (Rest of World) are two completely different things.

runagate · August 2016

Wouldn't it be 1:9979200?

elvenmad · August 2016

There is no such thing as 'random' if it is generated by a program, any computer programmer will tell you that a program will only do what it is told to do.

wayfarerx · August 2016

runagate wrote: »

Wouldn't it be 1:9979200?

I get 1:82944 ((12 sets * 8 traits * 3 weights) ^ 2 == 82944)

That's really means it's not all that uncommon, if ten thousand players run the gold pledge every day then someone has that happen to them almost every week.

bebynnag · August 2016

i had 2 light & 2 medium (all sturdy) warden shoulders on the 16th (launch day for console for shadow on the hist), which was something i had been after for my tank for so long!

and now that i finally have it iv'e equipped the medium sturdy mighty chuden shoulders i dropped at the same time!

LOL

redspecter23 · August 2016

12 shoulder pieces, 3 weights and 7 traits. The odds of getting 2 consecutive pieces that are exactly the same is 1:252. That's not exactly crazy odds but still an unlikely situation.

starkerealm · August 2016

SirAndy wrote: »

UltimaJoe777 wrote: »

Now I know RNG is a jerk at times but that is just WAY too suspect.

Try improving an item with less than 100% chance and watch ZOS RNG at its worst.

Clearly, ZOS 90% chance and ROW 90% chance (Rest of World) are two completely different things.

Watched my significant other accidentally destroy a piece that way, the other day.

UltimaJoe777 · August 2016

redspecter23 wrote: »

12 shoulder pieces, 3 weights and 7 traits. The odds of getting 2 consecutive pieces that are exactly the same is 1:252. That's not exactly crazy odds but still an unlikely situation.

Ah right my bad lol yeah those are the different things possible but the fact I got 2 of the exact same one back to back is still suspect.

elvenmad wrote: »

There is no such thing as 'random' if it is generated by a program, any computer programmer will tell you that a program will only do what it is told to do.

The program is designed to give you a random item in various factors, IF it's working properly. In fact the entire concept of random is indeed based on a system.

RedFireDisco · August 2016

I have played this game for over 18 months.

I run dungeons daily.

Lately on every single alt, doing silver and gold.

Not once - That's correct - NOT ONCE, have I ever, ever got a single malubeth shoulder.

I have literally hundreds of pieces and deconstructed more than I could ever remember.

NONE were malubeth. The kicker is I was on vacation when they sold the impen shoulder at the golden vendor.

I'm thinking either my odds of winning a lottery are higher, or I'm getting trolled.

Personofsecrets · August 2016

Seeding in this game, in a way that we may be able to understand, does seem to exist.

UltimaJoe777 · August 2016

RedFireDisco wrote: »

I have played this game for over 18 months.

I run dungeons daily.

Lately on every single alt, doing silver and gold.

Not once - That's correct - NOT ONCE, have I ever, ever got a single malubeth shoulder.

I have literally hundreds of pieces and deconstructed more than I could ever remember.

NONE were malubeth. The kicker is I was on vacation when they sold the impen shoulder at the golden vendor.

I'm thinking either my odds of winning a lottery are higher, or I'm getting trolled.

You are getting trolled... by RNG. This is perfectly normal luck though, no sign of anything broken in what you have experienced.

MasterSpatula · August 2016

SirAndy wrote: »

UltimaJoe777 wrote: »

Now I know RNG is a jerk at times but that is just WAY too suspect.

Try improving an item with less than 100% chance and watch ZOS RNG at its worst.

Clearly, ZOS 90% chance and ROW 90% chance (Rest of World) are two completely different things.

Yep, in ZOS Land, 90% Chance of Success is a 0% Rate of Success.

I've also noticed an 80% Chance of Success in pickpocketing translates to somewhat under a 50% Rate of Success. Another real kicker is the 50% Chance of Lorkhan's Tears returning a 10% rate of Lorkhan's Tears.

I know actual randomness is impossible to program, but some of the patterns in ESO's RNG are unmistakable.

acw37162 · August 2016

36 Gold Keys
12 Prosperous Helmets of assorted flavors

1/3 of 36 keys

Why can't divines drop 12 out of 36 in different flavors?

RedFireDisco · August 2016

MasterSpatula wrote: »

SirAndy wrote: »

UltimaJoe777 wrote: »

Now I know RNG is a jerk at times but that is just WAY too suspect.

Try improving an item with less than 100% chance and watch ZOS RNG at its worst.

Clearly, ZOS 90% chance and ROW 90% chance (Rest of World) are two completely different things.

Yep, in ZOS Land, 90% Chance of Success is a 0% Rate of Success.

I've also noticed an 80% Chance of Success in pickpocketing translates to somewhat under a 50% Rate of Success. Another real kicker is the 50% Chance of Lorkhan's Tears returning a 10% rate of Lorkhan's Tears.

I know actual randomness is impossible to program, but some of the patterns in ESO's RNG are unmistakable.

Oh pickpocketing is terrible. 80% is never 80%

Forcing locks is the same.

smacx250 · August 2016

elvenmad wrote: »

There is no such thing as 'random' if it is generated by a program, any computer programmer will tell you that a program will only do what it is told to do.

Actually, due to a great reliance on random numbers by encryption algorithms, almost all modern computer hardware provide very good "random" number generation. See the follow for what that entails:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardware_random_number_generator

What software decides to do with that random number is something else entirely. Note that just because something is "random" doesn't mean that all possibilities occur with equal probability. There is only one random distribution that has that property - the "uniform" one. There are many more random functions, as illustrated here (only the "uniform" distribution has the flat line where all cases are equally probable):
http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section3/eda366.htm

Beyond that there becomes the possibility for much more "interesting" random functions - such as those that modify the distribution over time based on other parameters. For example, if the probability of getting a perfect roe while skinning a fish is tied into the total number of perfect roe that have been sold or used in recipes in the last 48 hours. In my work we have commonly used similar "random distributions" to elicit desired behaviors while otherwise keeping things "random" (and no, I don't work with slot machines - but they do much the same kind of thing).

TL;DR: Yes, you can have nearly "true" randomness with today's computer hardware, and who knows what random distribution algorithms ZOS is using (and time varying ones are really hard to characterize accurately through observation).