I don't grind bound sets anymore because I did the maths and I also figured I would never get those sets.

I think most players (with limited playtime) should aim for "attainable best in slot" gear instead of BiS gear. This means using a combination of BoE and crafted sets to achieve the best possible setup.

Bound sets exist for players who have a lot of time on their hands.

RNG is something that keeps this game alive lol
Usually i rage when hear that people get something (like vMA BiS weapons) on their very first try (because i've done it alooooot of times), bet then i spoked to one guy... "Mister Unlucky". He have done vMA about 900+ times xD Its almost twice more than me now. Omg i haven't felt this way since my first sexual experience lol.

Bisenberger96 wrote: »

He said "upon completing Veteran Maelstrom Arena," not "upon receiving your weekly rewards."

That doesn't change the fact it shouldn't be excluded from the reasoning.

Personally dislike the token system.

I rather see them get rid of all the useless traits on elite gear such as Maelstrom weapons. I would be more than satisfied if they did that. No more charged resto staffs or powered bows.

Thank you @iRogue32 so much for writing all these. I really hope that they will at least listen to a great raider like you.

In this reply, I am going to write some number to convince anyone, hopefully including the developers, that the current pure RNG system is very undesirable.

---

Why the Current Looting System is Bad

This is such a horrifying topic in my opinion because my friends and I have been tormented so much by the current itemization system. I have always been trying to laugh it off when I receive an item such as

Arcane Ring of the Hunt/ Defending Maelstrom Axe (or Dagger)/ Charged Maelstrom Infernal Staff/ Training Helmet of Viscous Ophidian/ Prosperous Spell Power Cure Robe/ Training Gloves of Scathing Mage/ Training Restoration Staff of the Viper/ etc.

I like this game, I like the settings and stories, I like many of the skills. I like the people here, I like my guilds, I love my friends. It is easy to laugh it off once or twice with friends around, but the heavy feeling from my chest accumulates as time passes by.

(Warning, maths coming)

Because, even though I am not brilliantly good at Mathematics, I know that geometric random variables are memoryless, that is, the probability

P(X > m + n| X > n) = P(X > m) = (1 - p)^m , where X is a geometric random variable and 0 < p < 1 is the probability of a success.

Verbally, this is exactly the fault of any pure RNG system because any previous trials will not increase your chances of getting a success in all your later trials. While it is true that the chance of not getting the desired item is getting less and less as the number of trials increases and has the limit 0, the chances are nowhere near desirable and it is simply too all-or-nothing, giving no sense of progression as well.

For example, we all know the expected value of such a series of trials is E[X] = 1/ p, that is, if you have the chance of success of 1/ 200, then the expected number of tries to get a success is 200 tries. Let's assume 1/ p is an integer which makes things easier to understand. Now, since the expect number of trials to get one of the desired items is 1/ p, what is the chance of not getting such an item after 1/ p tries? The probability in question is P(X > 1/ p) = (1 - p)^{1/ p}.

To estimate this number, let f(x) = (1- x)^{1/ x}. Note that

f(1) = 0, f(x) --> e^{-1} as x --> 0 and f(x) decreases as x increases.

Hence, for 0 < p < 1, with the number getting closer to e^{-1} as p tends to 0. In the other words, if p is small, then the chance of not getting the desired item after 1/ p tries is about 0.367879.

To give a more specific example, let's say p = 1/ 200 which is around the chance of getting a specific Maelstrom weapon, then

(1 - 1/ 200)^{200} ~= 0.3670 (4 decimal places).

That is, there is a 0.3670 chance of not getting a weapon you want after 200 tries!

So, how about 200*2 = 400 tries in vMA?The chance is still [(1 - 1/ 200)^{200}]^2 ~= 0.1347 (4 d. p.).

Umm, I am hardcore, so... how about 200*3 = 600 tries in vMA? Well, you better pay your respect to the RNGesus since the chance is still [(1 - 1/ 200)^{200}]^3 ~= 0.04941 (4 d. p.). Hopefully you are not the 5% minority.

In any case, I believe the numbers are clear, there is no way you should have 0.3670/ 0.1347/ 0.04941 chance of not getting your desired item after 200/ 400/ 600 tries of vMA (in the skill aspect I think most people will become quite good in vMA after like 50 tries (probably less, just to give a convincing number)... so this shouldn't be the case even if the performance is (rightfully) put into your consideration.)

---

Short-Term Solution: Remove Some Undesirable Traits from the Loot Table

OK, so as the OP pointed out, this looting system is undesirable. Now then, what can we do? In terms of technically difficulty, I believe the easiest way is to remove items with almost useless, or in my opinion, completely useless traits to end-gamers from the loot table. This means Prosperous and Training on armors and Charged, Training and Nirnhoned (it is almost nearly completely outclassed by either Sharpened or Precise, save the possible but very special case where you are facing full light armor users in PVP with impenetrable armors and/ or transmutation buff, the developers need to seriously reconsider this trait) on weapons have to go (and yes please add back impenetrable for PVPers). Some marginal traits such as Powered, Defending can stay, for the time being I think. While I am happy to see the almost meaningless combinations such as Powered Bow or Defending Axe to go, I can understand there may be some players who may want to try out crazy builds (maybe stamina vigor healer? lol) and it may take time for the developers to rewrite the codes quite a bit and they have a lot to do so I guess they can stay for a while.


Long-Term Solution: Add a Token System as a Safe Measure
So why removing useless traits is a shortiterm solution? The answer is clear, because we should reward skills and effort. As you can see, no matter what is the value of the chance of success p is, unless p = 1, (1 - p)^m will never equals to 0. That means, it is likely that, because of the huge population of this game, some skillful and good players who should be rightfully rewarded are left behind.

I pointed out some time ago but I must stress again, the developers should not put the players' enjoyment into a gambling mechanic. The RNG system definitely has its very good features including convenience and surprises when looting, but it is clearly not perfect. It has its faults and thus the reason I called the token system as a safe measure.

For more detailed suggestion, an easy way would be deconstructing a Maelstrom weapon will give you some sort of special material which allows you to craft some specific Maelstrom weapons with specific weapon type and specific trait; or, just as the OP suggested, giving a special currency at the very end chest of the arena will do very well as well (though I prefer my suggested method as I feel better to craft things myself because I am also a crafter ). Another worth mentioning way is to enable trading between Maelstrom weapons (and between helms of the same monster and armors of the same set, although it won't be needed as much since BoP trading among group members is coming).

Up to now, I saw several argument against this system:

1) The RNG system has been working well.

No, it is not the case. From the developers' point of view, the overall distribution may be quite solid because you are looking at thousands and thousands of looting data. But this is meaningless from an individual's point of view because an individual simply cannot do as much trials. Besides, RNG is working against the system rewarding players' effort and skills.

2) It is working as intended.
Maybe, but we need to perfect the imperfect instead of letting a system go wild without resolving its issues.

3) This is the modern/ common/ convenient method of distributing loots.
Laziness is not an excuse. Besides, it can be a long-term plan, leaving the developers to fix more urgent issues such as PVP lags and animation priorities.

---

If you are reading up to now, I really really appreciate your time and effort. This topic has been sticking around for a very long time, but it is our passion on this game which lead us to bringing this topic back again and again. Hopefully you can see our points that the current looting system is imperfect and changes need to be made for better game experience. Thanks.

Joysheeped wrote: »

Thank you @iRogue32 so much for writing all these. I really hope that they will at least listen to a great raider like you.

In this reply, I am going to write some number to convince anyone, hopefully including the developers, that the current pure RNG system is very undesirable.

---

Why the Current Looting System is Bad

This is such a horrifying topic in my opinion because my friends and I have been tormented so much by the current itemization system. I have always been trying to laugh it off when I receive an item such as

Arcane Ring of the Hunt/ Defending Maelstrom Axe (or Dagger)/ Charged Maelstrom Infernal Staff/ Training Helmet of Viscous Ophidian/ Prosperous Spell Power Cure Robe/ Training Gloves of Scathing Mage/ Training Restoration Staff of the Viper/ etc.

I like this game, I like the settings and stories, I like many of the skills. I like the people here, I like my guilds, I love my friends. It is easy to laugh it off once or twice with friends around, but the heavy feeling from my chest accumulates as time passes by.

(Warning, maths coming)

Because, even though I am not brilliantly good at Mathematics, I know that geometric random variables are memoryless, that is, the probability

P(X > m + n| X > n) = P(X > m) = (1 - p)^m , where X is a geometric random variable and 0 < p < 1 is the probability of a success.

Verbally, this is exactly the fault of any pure RNG system because any previous trials will not increase your chances of getting a success in all your later trials. While it is true that the chance of not getting the desired item is getting less and less as the number of trials increases and has the limit 0, the chances are nowhere near desirable and it is simply too all-or-nothing, giving no sense of progression as well.

For example, we all know the expected value of such a series of trials is E[X] = 1/ p, that is, if you have the chance of success of 1/ 200, then the expected number of tries to get a success is 200 tries. Let's assume 1/ p is an integer which makes things easier to understand. Now, since the expect number of trials to get one of the desired items is 1/ p, what is the chance of not getting such an item after 1/ p tries? The probability in question is P(X > 1/ p) = (1 - p)^{1/ p}.

To estimate this number, let f(x) = (1- x)^{1/ x}. Note that

f(1) = 0, f(x) --> e^{-1} as x --> 0 and f(x) decreases as x increases.

Hence, for 0 < p < 1,

0 < (1 - p)^{1/ p} < e^{-1} ~= 0.367879 (thanks to Wolfram Alpha)

with the number getting closer to e^{-1} as p tends to 0. In the other words, if p is small, then the chance of not getting the desired item after 1/ p tries is about 0.367879.

To give a more specific example, let's say p = 1/ 200 which is around the chance of getting a specific Maelstrom weapon, then

(1 - 1/ 200)^{200} ~= 0.3670 (4 decimal places).

That is, there is a 0.3670 chance of not getting a weapon you want after 200 tries!

So, how about 200*2 = 400 tries in vMA?The chance is still [(1 - 1/ 200)^{200}]^2 ~= 0.1347 (4 d. p.).

Umm, I am hardcore, so... how about 200*3 = 600 tries in vMA? Well, you better pay your respect to the RNGesus since the chance is still [(1 - 1/ 200)^{200}]^3 ~= 0.04941 (4 d. p.). Hopefully you are not the 5% minority.

In any case, I believe the numbers are clear, there is no way you should have 0.3670/ 0.1347/ 0.04941 chance of not getting your desired item after 200/ 400/ 600 tries of vMA (in the skill aspect I think most people will become quite good in vMA after like 50 tries (probably less, just to give a convincing number)... so this shouldn't be the case even if the performance is (rightfully) put into your consideration.)

---

Short-Term Solution: Remove Some Undesirable Traits from the Loot Table

OK, so as the OP pointed out, this looting system is undesirable. Now then, what can we do? In terms of technically difficulty, I believe the easiest way is to remove items with almost useless, or in my opinion, completely useless traits to end-gamers from the loot table. This means Prosperous and Training on armors and Charged, Training and Nirnhoned (it is almost nearly completely outclassed by either Sharpened or Precise, save the possible but very special case where you are facing full light armor users in PVP with impenetrable armors and/ or transmutation buff, the developers need to seriously reconsider this trait) on weapons have to go (and yes please add back impenetrable for PVPers). Some marginal traits such as Powered, Defending can stay, for the time being I think. While I am happy to see the almost meaningless combinations such as Powered Bow or Defending Axe to go, I can understand there may be some players who may want to try out crazy builds (maybe stamina vigor healer? lol) and it may take time for the developers to rewrite the codes quite a bit and they have a lot to do so I guess they can stay for a while.


Long-Term Solution: Add a Token System as a Safe Measure
So why removing useless traits is a shortiterm solution? The answer is clear, because we should reward skills and effort. As you can see, no matter what is the value of the chance of success p is, unless p = 1, (1 - p)^m will never equals to 0. That means, it is likely that, because of the huge population of this game, some skillful and good players who should be rightfully rewarded are left behind.

I pointed out some time ago but I must stress again, the developers should not put the players' enjoyment into a gambling mechanic. The RNG system definitely has its very good features including convenience and surprises when looting, but it is clearly not perfect. It has its faults and thus the reason I called the token system as a safe measure.

For more detailed suggestion, an easy way would be deconstructing a Maelstrom weapon will give you some sort of special material which allows you to craft some specific Maelstrom weapons with specific weapon type and specific trait; or, just as the OP suggested, giving a special currency at the very end chest of the arena will do very well as well (though I prefer my suggested method as I feel better to craft things myself because I am also a crafter ). Another worth mentioning way is to enable trading between Maelstrom weapons (and between helms of the same monster and armors of the same set, although it won't be needed as much since BoP trading among group members is coming).

Up to now, I saw several argument against this system:

1) The RNG system has been working well.

No, it is not the case. From the developers' point of view, the overall distribution may be quite solid because you are looking at thousands and thousands of looting data. But this is meaningless from an individual's point of view because an individual simply cannot do as much trials. Besides, RNG is working against the system rewarding players' effort and skills.

2) It is working as intended.
Maybe, but we need to perfect the imperfect instead of letting a system go wild without resolving its issues.

3) This is the modern/ common/ convenient method of distributing loots.
Laziness is not an excuse. Besides, it can be a long-term plan, leaving the developers to fix more urgent issues such as PVP lags and animation priorities.

---

If you are reading up to now, I really really appreciate your time and effort. This topic has been sticking around for a very long time, but it is our passion on this game which lead us to bringing this topic back again and again. Hopefully you can see our points that the current looting system is imperfect and changes need to be made for better game experience. Thanks.

Thank you for breaking down the probability for getting X weapon after X amount of tries. It really show you how disappointing the RNG system is when there are so many possible outcomes of loot.

Defilted wrote: »

Lets talk about RNG
Let's talk about you and me
Let's talk about all the armor and motif's I don't see
Lets talk aaabout RNG

You're a couple of hours too late, someone already did that cover in this thread.

daemonios wrote: »

Bisenberger96 wrote: »

Ex_Draconis wrote: »

Unfortunately, the system is working exactly as intended. I agree it's not a fun or particularly rewarding system, but it isn't meant to be. It's designed for one thing, to keep you playing the game. And you have to admit as much as it sucks it works. Remember recently when The Division came out and after a couple of weeks everyone had all the high end gear and quit playing? This is what I assume ZOS is trying to avoid with this system. This being said though I personally think it needs more balance. I have consistently played this game for 2 years and still not gotten some of the pieces I want with the trait I want. Theoretically, I could play for many more years and never get the right piece and that's just not right. This broken system needs reform.

Exactly. Good loot still needs to be a challenge to get, but not so ridiculous as it is now. People farm vma, normal trials, and vet dungeons so they can move onto higher level content. @ZOS_GinaBruno @ZOS_JessicaFolsom @Wrobel do you ever wonder why so little people have completed vmol? This trial is so dps intensive it is probably impossible to do without your raid party having decent maelstrom weapons. If you're going to release new, more challenging content, then allow your players to acquire the necessary gear to complete it without making them repeat old content enough times to where they could do it in their sleep!

Agree and disagree.

I agree that gear progression means you should be able to get this DLC's gear before the next DLC comes out, given a reasonably high-ish time investment. That is not what's happening. I've farmed vICP and vWGT more times than I can count, 9 months and 3 DLCs have passed and I still don't have complete sets of SPC and Scathing.

I disagree that you absolutely need the previous DLC's dropped gear to complete the next DLC's content. I for one hate vMA, have never completed vMA, feel like killing myself after 30 minute there. It's just not my thing - I've spent hours fishing and getting monster trophies, but I simply can't be bothered to do vMA. Yet I just recently finished vMoL and I can tell you not everyone in my group is using Maelstrom weapons either. As for armour, crafted sets are still pretty strong - Julianos and Twice Born Star are very common in vMoL groups. But for instance, I could never test Scathing on my magicka Sorc because I only have 2 pieces with divines, so I can't really say if it would work for me or not. So you don't need Maelstrom weapons and you don't need specific gear sets, but it's still crap that you can't try them out after running the same dungeons for 9 months.

Jimmy wrote: »

Personally dislike the token system.

I rather see them get rid of all the useless traits on elite gear such as Maelstrom weapons. I would be more than satisfied if they did that. No more charged resto staffs or powered bows.

That doesn't solve the issue that the exact piece/trait combo you're looking for might NEVER drop, even if you do get non-useless stuff.

First off, congratulations! Secondly, you're right. I exaggerated a bit to get a point across. However, it can't be denied that obtaining maelstrom weapons and certain elite bop sets will lead to a much smoother experience in high level content, as the more dps you put out, the less time enemies have to kill you, and the higher your score will be. Raid groups that have these elite sets completed vmol months ago, groups (such as yours) that don't have them and don't put out as much dps as a result are just completing it now. This means that RNG plays a huge factor in dictating who is the best, something that shouldn't be. But I digress.

Until this game I thought the RNG in Dragon's Dogma (Dark Arisen) was bad but at least with that you had a choice of 3 items.

The current system is broke...

I completed the Thieves guild quest line and was rewarded with a purp weapon box... Once opened it was a TWO HANDED MAUL... WTF!?!?! I have a bow/DW character. How does this make any sense? In fact 75% of the gear dropped throughout the quest line was not compatible with my build/what I was using. This is particularly a problem, as the main quest is not repeatable.

This is so bad, it reminds me of the original DIABLO loot bug... "here's yer club sucker!"