Refine all at one place? Or spread it out? Does it really matter?

Eshelmen · July 2016

I know this has been asked, I'm sure of it.

If I take 1,000 rubedite/silk/ruby ash and refine it all at once, am I likely to receive less gold mats than if I were to refine 200(or smaller) at a time?

People keep telling me to spread out my refining, but I always thought these gold mats have a specific drop percentage.

So if alloys have a 5% drop rate(for example), no matter if I refine 50 or 1,000, my chances of getting an alloy stays the same, yes?

I only ask because today had to be the worst day of refining.

750 Silk - 0 Wax
800 Rubedite- 1 Alloy
700 Ruby Ash - 1 Rosin
3/3 on all.

Ive refined this much before and recieved much better results, so it really makes me curious to see what you guys think.

Tyrion87 · July 2016

I noticed one thing: I get more gold tempers after switching the type of mats during refinement every batch of 10-30. I mean if I have e.g. 200 raw ruby ash and 200 raw nightwood, I refine 10 of ruby ash, then 10 of nightwood, then again 10 of ruby ash and so on. Yesterday I got 5x rosin from 150 of those, as well as 4x alloy from 200 of blacksmithing mats and 2x wax from less than 150 of clothing ones.

Yet I'm sure it's all about my impression and luck, nothing else. There is no fixed pattern for sure.

rrico_76 · July 2016

Im on low lvls, so dont treat this as a rule, but my impression is exactly from the other side of this spectrum. Tempers dropped on crafts only when i put the packs of 30 and more, almost never when it was 10-20. But as I said, low lvls, green-blue tempers. I think it's estimated somehow by the engine, that a chance depends on amount - the higher the more. I could be wrong ofc.

SpAEkus · July 2016

It's all "Chicken Bone Mojo" Random Number Generator. One day its Gold like the Hobbit and the next with the same pattern its bumpkins for me.

bebynnag · July 2016

i once got 5 alloys from 200 void, few days ago i had no alloys from 2,000 total mats (varying levels)

xilfxlegion · July 2016

its all rng. changing ore types or location or closing the window and starting again are all electronic placebos

Nestor · July 2016

About the only thing that I have noticed is, if I get a Temper on the first one or two refines, I will get a nice flow of Tempers for the session, up to a point. Does not mean I will get Golds, but I will get a nice selection of Tempers. If I start to refine and get no Tempers in the first two, I am not going to get much in the way of tempers for that session. So, I stop and reactivate the crafting table.

It's still mostly RNG, However, I have noticed refining a lot of raws, that I if I get a nice run of Temper Production, then it will be several refines where I get no Tempers. So, what to do there? Stop the refining and restart? I don't think that really helps over all. It is at this point that I just walk away from the crafting station and refine another time.

So, it really all comes down to RNG overall. In the short term, you may be able to influence Temper output, but not how often you get Golds. But, there will be a portion of time that you get little to no temper output no matter what you do.

Over time, the 1 out of 100 (raw mats, not refine operations) still seems to be the overall average output for Golds.

MasterSpatula · July 2016

I don't like to refine unless I have at least ten stacks, preferably more. It seems to me, and lots of my own anecdotal evidence backs this up, that RNGs develop patterns. The more rolls you get out of the RNG, the more likely you are to break out of the pattern and get returns that more resemble the actual probability.

helediron · July 2016

OP, your results vary because you refined so small batch. There are no tricks that affect refining. Batch size does not affect it. Material does not affect it. Refining rhythm does not affect it. Brexit does not affect it.

Golden drop rate is 1 out of 200 raw mats.

Calidus1 · July 2016

post hoc, ergo propter hoc

Ex_Draconis · July 2016

I never refine less than 2500 of any one material. Usually it's over 3000 when I do it and I do it all at once and that reliably gives me anywhere between 24 to 33 gold tempers.