Fishing for Pristine Roe... am I doing something wrong?

Beegie_B · September 2015

Can you get this off of any fish you skin? Collected from any water source?

I've been reading that the estimated drop rate is ~1/100.

So far, I've skinned 400 fish and NOTHING.

Am I maybe doing something wrong? Or am I just very unlucky?

If my math is right, not finding any roe after 400 fish is ~1% likely to happen. Am I just that lucky 1%?

EDIT:

I've started to build a little dataset for my fishing endeavours, it's still a work in progress to get all the statistics correct (on estimating confidence intervals).

I've shared the document, and anyone is free to contribute.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RpPZhkWStzO_-dSa7jnTUE56MnMd-4qRWsS56sBZjPY/edit?usp=sharing

My personal sheet is locked, so nobody can corrupt my own data, but feel free to duplicate my sheet and create your own! If you want me to restrict permissions so you can only edit your own sheet, just let me know.

If enough people contribute, I will make a global table that aggregates the data so that we can get some better estimates on roe drop rates in this game.

Cheers!

Nestor · September 2015

It is RNG. I have gotten like 3 PRs in the game, but I have not fished much. I have gotten one filleting about 50 fish, and one filleting about 20 fish, so the number you do at once does not seem to matter.

Note you don't get the Roe from Green or Blue Trophy fish.

The most important thing is to use the correct bait for the water you are in, so that you get a fish on every cast. But it does not matter what bait you use to catch the fish with regards to chance for Roe.

Beegie_B · September 2015

Thanks.

Yeah, I know about the fishing bait.

I just tend to go fish for ~1h and then skin everything at a time.

The way I count how many fish I skinned is just by the stacks of fish fillets I have sitting around.

So... basically what you're saying is: I have terrible luck

Antubis · September 2015

I have skinned 600 fish and nothing; I have skinned 20 fish and received 2; random is random. Make a new sacrifice to fishing gods.

Darlgon · September 2015

Juat to add.. Am VR14, was fishing in Stonefalls in all water types for the fishing achievement while listening to a conference call for about 2 hours. Got my first two Perfect Roes from them.. Probably fished 20 hours since trying to get the final ones in Mournhold and have procced one.

bicketybam · September 2015

I have been doing a lot of perfect roe farming and what I do is fish until I have around 150 fish to fillet. Only once did this not yield roe. The rest of the time I alternate between 2 and 3 roe out of the 150. Today I lost track and ended up catching 206 fish. I netted 6 roe from them. I ALWAYS fillet them all at once. Call it superstition, lol.

What I am trying to figure out is the market for roe (I am on XBOX NA). The only person that needs them are the individuals that can actually craft the experience potion. I have been seeing the XP potion selling for 5,000 gold and even as low as $4,399. Yet I continue to see perfect roe being listed at 10k - 12K. It doesn't make sense. Someone is going to give half their profit (4 potions at 5K is 20,000) to buy an ingredient? I would think that the roe should be selling for 5k, tops. Am I missing something?

Siniztor · September 2015

bicketybam wrote: »

I have been doing a lot of perfect roe farming and what I do is fish until I have around 150 fish to fillet. Only once did this not yield roe. The rest of the time I alternate between 2 and 3 roe out of the 150. Today I lost track and ended up catching 206 fish. I netted 6 roe from them. I ALWAYS fillet them all at once. Call it superstition, lol.

What I am trying to figure out is the market for roe (I am on XBOX NA). The only person that needs them are the individuals that can actually craft the experience potion. I have been seeing the XP potion selling for 5,000 gold and even as low as $4,399. Yet I continue to see perfect roe being listed at 10k - 12K. It doesn't make sense. Someone is going to give half their profit (4 potions at 5K is 20,000) to buy an ingredient? I would think that the roe should be selling for 5k, tops. Am I missing something?

Same thing here on ps4...not sure why people are down to 4k a potion thats 16k for 4 potions..now if you buy all the mats thats 12k-15 a roe 3k-3.5k for frost Mir (cause more people use max stats its seems) 2k-2.5k for Bev juice...even useing low end prices your still at 16k lol no profit..i stoped selling my potions and just trade for roe 3 potions per roe....

I got a nice little stack waiting forthe patch to drop and my own Cp grinds

OT. Yeah when i hit 25 roe i had roughly 2,500 fish..but i go days where 200 fish nothing then 120 get me 4 roe

bicketybam · September 2015

Siniztor wrote: »

bicketybam wrote: »

I have been doing a lot of perfect roe farming and what I do is fish until I have around 150 fish to fillet. Only once did this not yield roe. The rest of the time I alternate between 2 and 3 roe out of the 150. Today I lost track and ended up catching 206 fish. I netted 6 roe from them. I ALWAYS fillet them all at once. Call it superstition, lol.

What I am trying to figure out is the market for roe (I am on XBOX NA). The only person that needs them are the individuals that can actually craft the experience potion. I have been seeing the XP potion selling for 5,000 gold and even as low as $4,399. Yet I continue to see perfect roe being listed at 10k - 12K. It doesn't make sense. Someone is going to give half their profit (4 potions at 5K is 20,000) to buy an ingredient? I would think that the roe should be selling for 5k, tops. Am I missing something?

Same thing here on ps4...not sure why people are down to 4k a potion thats 16k for 4 potions..now if you buy all the mats thats 12k-15 a roe 3k-3.5k for frost Mir (cause more people use max stats its seems) 2k-2.5k for Bev juice...even useing low end prices your still at 16k lol no profit..i stoped selling my potions and just trade for roe 3 potions per roe....

I got a nice little stack waiting forthe patch to drop and my own Cp grinds

OT. Yeah when i hit 25 roe i had roughly 2,500 fish..but i go days where 200 fish nothing then 120 get me 4 roe

How did you get the recipe? Purchase, RNG or both? I've received 2 fragments and they were the same

Siniztor · September 2015

bicketybam wrote: »

Siniztor wrote: »

bicketybam wrote: »

I have been doing a lot of perfect roe farming and what I do is fish until I have around 150 fish to fillet. Only once did this not yield roe. The rest of the time I alternate between 2 and 3 roe out of the 150. Today I lost track and ended up catching 206 fish. I netted 6 roe from them. I ALWAYS fillet them all at once. Call it superstition, lol.

What I am trying to figure out is the market for roe (I am on XBOX NA). The only person that needs them are the individuals that can actually craft the experience potion. I have been seeing the XP potion selling for 5,000 gold and even as low as $4,399. Yet I continue to see perfect roe being listed at 10k - 12K. It doesn't make sense. Someone is going to give half their profit (4 potions at 5K is 20,000) to buy an ingredient? I would think that the roe should be selling for 5k, tops. Am I missing something?

Same thing here on ps4...not sure why people are down to 4k a potion thats 16k for 4 potions..now if you buy all the mats thats 12k-15 a roe 3k-3.5k for frost Mir (cause more people use max stats its seems) 2k-2.5k for Bev juice...even useing low end prices your still at 16k lol no profit..i stoped selling my potions and just trade for roe 3 potions per roe....

I got a nice little stack waiting forthe patch to drop and my own Cp grinds

OT. Yeah when i hit 25 roe i had roughly 2,500 fish..but i go days where 200 fish nothing then 120 get me 4 roe

How did you get the recipe? Purchase, RNG or both? I've received 2 fragments and they were the same

well i got 4 recipes fragments 3 of them #7 traded one 7 for a differnt one sold the other then bought the remaining 4 for like 500k

Edit : since then ive gotten 4 or 5 more fragments ive sold..thinking of putting togther another recipe to sell the whole thing

bicketybam · September 2015

Siniztor wrote: »

bicketybam wrote: »

Siniztor wrote: »

bicketybam wrote: »

I have been doing a lot of perfect roe farming and what I do is fish until I have around 150 fish to fillet. Only once did this not yield roe. The rest of the time I alternate between 2 and 3 roe out of the 150. Today I lost track and ended up catching 206 fish. I netted 6 roe from them. I ALWAYS fillet them all at once. Call it superstition, lol.

What I am trying to figure out is the market for roe (I am on XBOX NA). The only person that needs them are the individuals that can actually craft the experience potion. I have been seeing the XP potion selling for 5,000 gold and even as low as $4,399. Yet I continue to see perfect roe being listed at 10k - 12K. It doesn't make sense. Someone is going to give half their profit (4 potions at 5K is 20,000) to buy an ingredient? I would think that the roe should be selling for 5k, tops. Am I missing something?

Same thing here on ps4...not sure why people are down to 4k a potion thats 16k for 4 potions..now if you buy all the mats thats 12k-15 a roe 3k-3.5k for frost Mir (cause more people use max stats its seems) 2k-2.5k for Bev juice...even useing low end prices your still at 16k lol no profit..i stoped selling my potions and just trade for roe 3 potions per roe....

I got a nice little stack waiting forthe patch to drop and my own Cp grinds

OT. Yeah when i hit 25 roe i had roughly 2,500 fish..but i go days where 200 fish nothing then 120 get me 4 roe

How did you get the recipe? Purchase, RNG or both? I've received 2 fragments and they were the same

well i got 4 recipes fragments 3 of them #7 traded one 7 for a differnt one sold the other then bought the remaining 4 for like 500k

Edit : since then ive gotten 4 or 5 more fragments ive sold..thinking of putting togther another recipe to sell the whole thing

Good for you. I am working with a friend and we are going to try and piece together the recipe between the two of us. It still seems like it will take forever.

Beegie_B · September 2015

Yeah, I've had 3 characters doing the daily provisioning bounty for about a 11 days and found 1 fragment so far.

But, damn, do I get a lot of frost miriam and bev juice. Seem to get a stack every day.

Vraneon · September 2015

Yeah, that's RNG... Had 17 gold keys 14 silver keys for the new imperial city update. 1 shoulder out of the gold keys, 5 shoulders from the silver chest...And the silver chests have a LOWER chance of containing a shoulder piece.

Didn't get a nirncrux for 600 nodes and then I got once 3 within 30 nodes.

Before IC I was doing the dungeons to get some head pieces for a few dungeons, where I was missing the head piece. Now yesterday I just wanted to do any dungeon for xp and mats. I got two engine guardian masks in a row.

Beegie_B · September 2015

Vraneon wrote: »

Yeah, that's RNG... Had 17 gold keys 14 silver keys for the new imperial city update. 1 shoulder out of the gold keys, 5 shoulders from the silver chest...And the silver chests have a LOWER chance of containing a shoulder piece.

Didn't get a nirncrux for 600 nodes and then I got once 3 within 30 nodes.

Before IC I was doing the dungeons to get some head pieces for a few dungeons, where I was missing the head piece. Now yesterday I just wanted to do any dungeon for xp and mats. I got two engine guardian masks in a row.

I know it's RNG... but RNG has an underlying probability distribution it samples from. If you collect the data, you can estimate the underlying parameters of the distribution, so you can make some educated guesses.

Since I made the original post, I found 3 roe in ~150 fish. So overall the drop rate is ~3/550 for me.

With enough data, you'll be able to estimate the expected market value of things like unskinned fish, bait, and XP potions.

Shamul · September 2015

1,216 fish in my inventory and not a single Perfect Roe. So far drop rate is zero. Really bad luck here I guess for me. To fish or not to fish - guess I need another beer, actually going to need a case at this rate.

Antubis · September 2015

The below data is after having skinned 700+ fish with no Roe:
Fish skinned / perfect roe (date)
28 / 1
73 / 0
127 / 0
145 / 0 (8/2)
39 / 1 (8/4)
18 / 1 (8/4)
64 / 0 (8/4)
21 / 1 (8/6)
134 / 0 (8/6)
3 / 1 (8/7)
102 / 0 (8/7)
1 / 1 (8/18)
6 / 1 (8/18)
33 / 0 (8/18)
19 / 1 (8/19)
6 / 1 (8/19)
26 / 0 (8/19)

TheOnePandemonium · September 2015

bicketybam wrote: »

What I am trying to figure out is the market for roe (I am on XBOX NA). The only person that needs them are the individuals that can actually craft the experience potion. I have been seeing the XP potion selling for 5,000 gold and even as low as $4,399. Yet I continue to see perfect roe being listed at 10k - 12K. It doesn't make sense. Someone is going to give half their profit (4 potions at 5K is 20,000) to buy an ingredient? I would think that the roe should be selling for 5k, tops. Am I missing something?

When you have points into Brewer I think you can get up to 3 beverages per "craft" so that's where the profit comes from, I think ^-^
I've got 3 Perfect Roes so far, must have fished around 300-400, not sure ^^

Siniztor · September 2015

TheOnePandemonium wrote: »

bicketybam wrote: »

What I am trying to figure out is the market for roe (I am on XBOX NA). The only person that needs them are the individuals that can actually craft the experience potion. I have been seeing the XP potion selling for 5,000 gold and even as low as $4,399. Yet I continue to see perfect roe being listed at 10k - 12K. It doesn't make sense. Someone is going to give half their profit (4 potions at 5K is 20,000) to buy an ingredient? I would think that the roe should be selling for 5k, tops. Am I missing something?

When you have points into Brewer I think you can get up to 3 beverages per "craft" so that's where the profit comes from, I think ^-^
I've got 3 Perfect Roes so far, must have fished around 300-400, not sure ^^

if you put 3 points into Brewer you get 3 extra per craft...So 1 roe +1 B juice +1 frost mirr = 4 xp potions

phairdon · September 2015

As other above stated, RNG. First lot of perfect roe dropped for me from 5 fish. Second & third, approximately 106 fish for each.

Siniztor · September 2015

i did all of coldharbor for the achivement and got 531 fish to skin 6 roe

Beegie_B · September 2015

I've started to build a little dataset for my fishing endeavours, it's still a work in progress to get all the statistics correct (on estimating confidence intervals).

I've shared the document, and anyone is free to contribute.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RpPZhkWStzO_-dSa7jnTUE56MnMd-4qRWsS56sBZjPY/edit?usp=sharing

My personal sheet is locked, so nobody can corrupt my own data, but feel free to duplicate my sheet and create your own! If you want me to restrict permissions so you can only edit your own sheet, just let me know.

If enough people contribute, I will make a global table that aggregates the data so that we can get some better estimates on roe drop rates in this game.

Cheers!

Elsir · September 2015

I think the problem is the mindset of seeing "~1/100" and thinking that with every 100, you should get at least 1 but people are actually mixing up the difference between "ratio" and "probability". 1/100 means you have a 1% chance per single, solitary fish you have skinned for that fish to produce desired results. Ratio is how many you did get out of a number of samples you skinned. So, no matter how many samples you pool and skin to report, you're really only going to end up with a ratio, not a probability calculation as that is already calculated on-the-spot each time a single fish on it's own is skinned, regardless of successive skinning of grouped samples.

Beegie_B · September 2015

Elsir wrote: »

I think the problem is the mindset of seeing "~1/100" and thinking that with every 100, you should get at least 1 but people are actually mixing up the difference between "ratio" and "probability". 1/100 means you have a 1% chance per single, solitary fish you have skinned for that fish to produce desired results. Ratio is how many you did get out of a number of samples you skinned. So, no matter how many samples you pool and skin to report, you're really only going to end up with a ratio, not a probability calculation as that is already calculated on-the-spot each time a single fish on it's own is skinned, regardless of successive skinning of grouped samples.

Well the problem I'm trying to solve is using data to estimate the underlying parameters of the probability distribution. With enough data, you can ... assuming the underlying sampling distribution doesn't change over measurement time, and assuming that each time you skin a fish is independent from all previous times you skinned a fish. Those are perfectly reasonable assumptions.

Junglejim82 · September 2015

I've never fished but got a p roe from filleting fish dropped from dreughs . Within 1st 5 filleted