Who is doing the testing of the RNG ???

hrothbern · September 2015

The properties of sets and abilities are ample tested by us players. This is not always easy, but addons and videos make it possible to "proof" what you first think/guess could be wrong. Bugsd are reported in one way or another. Action is taken sooner or later.

But how about the correct functioning of the RNG. To test if there are coding mistakes.

Assuming that the designed RNG is happening, is really 100% implemented, is feeble.

We, as players, cannot do that properly !!! Testing RNG drop rates by players is absurd.
Proof is difficult too generate....
Doing "statistical significant" conclusions is a science on her own....

So... the ball is at ZOS, to put up the effort to do it, and to reassure us that it is being done!

Question: @ZOS: are you doing it?

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Ourorboros · September 2015

Don't ask questions with no good answer

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Kas · September 2015

The naiive way to implement it is very straightforward and the underlying pseudo random number generator is provided through OS calls. Thus, microsoft et al. (or even hardware manufacturers) probably did the testing. If they choose to go non-naiive for some reason, however, there is also room to *** it up.

But tbh it would be very strange to end up with something slightly off. Usually a typical mistake would make one random outcome entirely impossible, or mess up probabilities by an order of magnitude and not just a bit. Either would be realized by players.

Making a mistake to turn, say, 14% into 18%, would be very very strange.

hrothbern · September 2015

Kas wrote: »

The naiive way to implement it is very straightforward and the underlying pseudo random number generator is provided through OS calls. Thus, microsoft et al. (or even hardware manufacturers) probably did the testing. If they choose to go non-naiive for some reason, however, there is also room to *** it up.

But tbh it would be very strange to end up with something slightly off. Usually a typical mistake would make one random outcome entirely impossible, or mess up probabilities by an order of magnitude and not just a bit. Either would be realized by players.

Making a mistake to turn, say, 14% into 18%, would be very very strange.

Generating Random Numbers was before the era of the computer an issue. There were even books filled with random numbers. But nowadays that is not a big source of big mistakes anymore. And OS calls are the safe modern way of the old look up books.:)

@Kas;2229588
My post was not descriptive enough.

I did not mean generating the number as such, but the way that number is handled in the coding.
So more a "normal" coding mistake, but difficult to track because the smoke curtain of a Random Numbers, makes it intransparent to directly see that something is wrong, which is much easier with "logic" mistakes in coding.

And to protect the coding guys somewhat: Misunderstandings in "what" was intended to code, suffer from the same intransparency.

I fear that in and around the coding the source of uncertainty arises.
And would like to be reassured by ZOS that this is under a much higher level of Quality Control than the normal mistakes (because we as players cannot help testing)

LiquidZ · September 2015

Try playing ArcheAge then tell me about RNG.

TheBull · September 2015

I've never seen such stupidly low drop rates on gear. It makes no sense to me.

Ipsius · September 2015

The "R" stands for "random".

Caroloces · September 2015

When Psjic Ambrosia was released, I picked up 2 fragments through provisioning writs within the space of about 2 weeks. Now 2 or 3 months have gone by with 1 toon doing writs on a daily basis, and I have yet to get another fragment (Oh, excuse me. I did get 1 more fragment, but it was a duplicate of 1 of the 2 I already had!).

I can't remember the last time I came upon a motif. What's the deal with that?

Ipsius · September 2015

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Caroloces wrote: »

When Psjic Ambrosia was released, I picked up 2 fragments through provisioning writs within the space of about 2 weeks. Now 2 or 3 months have gone by with 1 toon doing writs on a daily basis, and I have yet to get another fragment (Oh, excuse me. I did get 1 more fragment, but it was a duplicate of 1 of the 2 I already had!).

I can't remember the last time I came upon a motif. What's the deal with that?

The "R" is the deal with that.

Epona222 · September 2015

Oh good grief, another case of people not understanding probability and statistics.

If a drop rate is 1 in 50, it doesn't mean that if you kill/loot/filet 50 you will definitely get 1. You could kill/loot/filet 3 and get 3, or you could kill/loot/filet 500 and get 0.
Over the course of millions of results (not just your results) it is likely to end up at statistically 1 in 50. But not just your results (everyone in the game, and not just for this session, but over years), and it is not definite that you will get 1 in 50.

Caroloces · September 2015

Epona222 wrote: »

Oh good grief, another case of people not understanding probability and statistics.

If a drop rate is 1 in 50, it doesn't mean that if you kill/loot/filet 50 you will definitely get 1. You could kill/loot/filet 3 and get 3, or you could kill/loot/filet 500 and get 0.
Over the course of millions of results (not just your results) it is likely to end up at statistically 1 in 50. But not just your results (everyone in the game, and not just for this session, but over years), and it is not definite that you will get 1 in 50.

I do understand what you say, but I guess my point would be that if it's the case that I don't get any drops within the space of 2 or 3 months then perhaps the drop rate is set too abysmally low to make player crafting of the ambrosia viable.
A cynical observer mentioned to me that perhaps ZOS set the drop rate of those fragments at a reasonable rate in the early days when the potion was announced, and then after a space of time set it to a very low percentage to compel more people to buy from the crown store. Might the same thing be said for motifs?

Epona222 · September 2015

Caroloces wrote: »

Epona222 wrote: »

Oh good grief, another case of people not understanding probability and statistics.

If a drop rate is 1 in 50, it doesn't mean that if you kill/loot/filet 50 you will definitely get 1. You could kill/loot/filet 3 and get 3, or you could kill/loot/filet 500 and get 0.
Over the course of millions of results (not just your results) it is likely to end up at statistically 1 in 50. But not just your results (everyone in the game, and not just for this session, but over years), and it is not definite that you will get 1 in 50.

I do understand what you say, but I guess my point would be that if it's the case that I don't get any drops within the space of 2 or 3 months then perhaps the drop rate is set too abysmally low to make player crafting of the ambrosia viable.
A cynical observer mentioned to me that perhaps ZOS set the drop rate of those fragments at a reasonable rate in the early days when the potion was announced, and then after a space of time set it to a very low percentage to compel more people to buy from the crown store. Might the same thing be said for motifs?

But it is the nature of the beast that sometimes you won't get the expected drop rate - and that can work in either direction. I did 5 writs on 1 character today (bs/ww/cloth/prov/alchemy) and got 2 glass motif fragments, a psijic ambrosia fragment, a dreugh wax, and my alchemy survey was all columbine, mountain flower, and bugloss.

Tomorrow I may get nothing. I may get nothing for the rest of the year, but that doesn't mean the RNG is broken.

It would be broken and not random if it provided uniform results.

Ipsius · September 2015

Low statistical chances are breeding grounds for superstition. As an example, the notion that saving pinions at a dolmen til the end increased the chances of a general. This superstition existed because the chance of fighting a general is low; someone saved the pinions until the end of a dolmen, got a general, and figured, "voila! I've cracked the code!!!"

This was recently directly refuted by ZOS, but people will continue to believe it because humans look for patterns and seek to find out why we, center of the universe, didn't receive the winning lottery number. Clearly, the universe was mistaken; we must find out what went wrong!!

If tapping your head and rubbing your belly while wearing your lucky socks makes you feel more likely to get a good drop, go for it. But don't assume it's a game mechanic (or get angry when others make fun of you)

I_killed_Vivec · September 2015

Caroloces wrote: »

Epona222 wrote: »

Oh good grief, another case of people not understanding probability and statistics.

If a drop rate is 1 in 50, it doesn't mean that if you kill/loot/filet 50 you will definitely get 1. You could kill/loot/filet 3 and get 3, or you could kill/loot/filet 500 and get 0.
Over the course of millions of results (not just your results) it is likely to end up at statistically 1 in 50. But not just your results (everyone in the game, and not just for this session, but over years), and it is not definite that you will get 1 in 50.

I do understand what you say, but I guess my point would be that if it's the case that I don't get any drops within the space of 2 or 3 months then perhaps the drop rate is set too abysmally low to make player crafting of the ambrosia viable.
A cynical observer mentioned to me that perhaps ZOS set the drop rate of those fragments at a reasonable rate in the early days when the potion was announced, and then after a space of time set it to a very low percentage to compel more people to buy from the crown store. Might the same thing be said for motifs?

I've been doing provisioning writs from the start and only have 1 fragment. I've long forgotten to even think of the possibility of getting one when I open the reward.

Part of the problem with the impression of the RNG is that it is not player specific.

While odds of 1 in 50 do not mean that for every 50 goes you will get one, it does mean that not getting one in 200 goes would be unexpected.

However, that only applies if you have a personal RNG. With a global RNG, in the time it takes for your 200 goes, plenty of other random events will be occurring just not to you.

Having said that, I've seen several people complain that they'd just got their first glass chapter only to find out it was for a belt. And when I got my first chapter, it was for a belt...

Epona222 · September 2015

I_killed_Vivec wrote: »

Caroloces wrote: »

Epona222 wrote: »

Oh good grief, another case of people not understanding probability and statistics.

If a drop rate is 1 in 50, it doesn't mean that if you kill/loot/filet 50 you will definitely get 1. You could kill/loot/filet 3 and get 3, or you could kill/loot/filet 500 and get 0.
Over the course of millions of results (not just your results) it is likely to end up at statistically 1 in 50. But not just your results (everyone in the game, and not just for this session, but over years), and it is not definite that you will get 1 in 50.

I do understand what you say, but I guess my point would be that if it's the case that I don't get any drops within the space of 2 or 3 months then perhaps the drop rate is set too abysmally low to make player crafting of the ambrosia viable.
A cynical observer mentioned to me that perhaps ZOS set the drop rate of those fragments at a reasonable rate in the early days when the potion was announced, and then after a space of time set it to a very low percentage to compel more people to buy from the crown store. Might the same thing be said for motifs?

I've been doing provisioning writs from the start and only have 1 fragment. I've long forgotten to even think of the possibility of getting one when I open the reward.

Part of the problem with the impression of the RNG is that it is not player specific.

While odds of 1 in 50 do not mean that for every 50 goes you will get one, it does mean that not getting one in 200 goes would be unexpected.

However, that only applies if you have a personal RNG. With a global RNG, in the time it takes for your 200 goes, plenty of other random events will be occurring just not to you.

Having said that, I've seen several people complain that they'd just got their first glass chapter only to find out it was for a belt. And when I got my first chapter, it was for a belt...

Mine was bows

twev · September 2015

Ipsius wrote: »

The "R" stands for "random".

People assume all random numbers are equally represented.

It's easy to program an RNG that will produce all '1's, but randomly produce a '9' every 1,000,000th iteration.

This too is an RNG.

PBpsy · September 2015

Ipsius wrote: »

Low statistical chances are breeding grounds for superstition. As an example, the notion that saving pinions at a dolmen til the end increased the chances of a general. This superstition existed because the chance of fighting a general is low; someone saved the pinions until the end of a dolmen, got a general, and figured, "voila! I've cracked the code!!!"

This was recently directly refuted by ZOS, but people will continue to believe it because humans look for patterns and seek to find out why we, center of the universe, didn't receive the winning lottery number. Clearly, the universe was mistaken; we must find out what went wrong!!

If tapping your head and rubbing your belly while wearing your lucky socks makes you feel more likely to get a good drop, go for it. But don't assume it's a game mechanic (or get angry when others make fun of you)

Hey. How are you spying on me?

Ipsius · September 2015

PBpsy wrote: »

Ipsius wrote: »

Low statistical chances are breeding grounds for superstition. As an example, the notion that saving pinions at a dolmen til the end increased the chances of a general. This superstition existed because the chance of fighting a general is low; someone saved the pinions until the end of a dolmen, got a general, and figured, "voila! I've cracked the code!!!"

This was recently directly refuted by ZOS, but people will continue to believe it because humans look for patterns and seek to find out why we, center of the universe, didn't receive the winning lottery number. Clearly, the universe was mistaken; we must find out what went wrong!!

If tapping your head and rubbing your belly while wearing your lucky socks makes you feel more likely to get a good drop, go for it. But don't assume it's a game mechanic (or get angry when others make fun of you)

Hey. How are you spying on me?

I find that spying on people increases my drops and increases my crit rate...

hrothbern · September 2015

Ipsius wrote: »

Low statistical chances are breeding grounds for superstition. As an example, the notion that saving pinions at a dolmen til the end increased the chances of a general. This superstition existed because the chance of fighting a general is low; someone saved the pinions until the end of a dolmen, got a general, and figured, "voila! I've cracked the code!!!"

This was recently directly refuted by ZOS, but people will continue to believe it because humans look for patterns and seek to find out why we, center of the universe, didn't receive the winning lottery number. Clearly, the universe was mistaken; we must find out what went wrong!!

If tapping your head and rubbing your belly while wearing your lucky socks makes you feel more likely to get a good drop, go for it. But don't assume it's a game mechanic (or get angry when others make fun of you)

thanks @Ipsius

so very true !
higher statistical chances fit to our experience intuition.... Low statistical chances NOT... and indeed a breeding ground for superstition.

That is why, we as a player base cannot be used as a testing environment for this topic !!! and we have to believe...
.... believe that ZOS is taking care.

Underpinning my Question to ZOS: Do you have a more strict Quality Control on these frequencies?

If this part of the program testing goes with the flow of all other coding, we have a devilish brew, befitting Molag Bal's kitchen.

Mighty_oakk · September 2015

I believe every game I have played with rng people complained about the rng

ThoraxtheDark · September 2015

Go play defiance , then talk to me about RNG. recipes and other things of that nature Should be harder to get in the first place, end game content.

rfennell_ESO · September 2015

The general problem regarding RNG is you only hear from those that didn't fare well.

You need a lot of iterations of something to come to any conclusion, far more than you will likely ever remotely come close to in your playing experience.

What occurs is usually those that don't get what they want are the most vocal and those that did no longer focus on the issue other than to rub it in.

Epona222 · September 2015

If it is any consolation, people who got the entire psijic ambrosia recipe early were people who were doing at least (on the basis that some people have more than 1 account) 8 max level provisioner writs every day, I doubt it was ever the case that someone with just 1 character doing the max level writ got the entire recipe in a short period of time.

I hear a lot of complaints about the RNG that start "I know people who have it already, but I've had a provisioner doing writs every day..." etc. and replace provisioner with whatever the current thing is. The people who have whatever you want already have either a. more characters on the job, or b. gold to buy what they want.

Niminion · September 2015

Elemental status effects are broke I think. Spamming shock damage all day long and not a single concussion. Maybe the passive that is supposed to increase by 100% is reducing it by 100%... Lightning staff isn't doing the aoe it is supposed to either. My lightning staff grinding build is totally hosed. Thanks Obama.

Really tired of having to test everything single ability extensively every major patch because they break stuff all the damn time.

nikolaj.lemcheb16_ESO · September 2015

The random generator in this game is similar to the one they used in DAoC. It is a complex curve where the x axis is time and the y axis is value.

The overall shape is a sinus curve but at the extreme end of the bottom curve there is a spike of the highest value numbers. And where the tangent is near zero the curve is stretched out over the x/time axis. You cross the entire length about every 30 seconds.

You will notice that really lucky events are often clustered together, but otherwise you get good results over a time and bad results over a time.

If you get a bunch of hireling mats and the first you open has something valuable, then there is a high probability that the others also have something valuable, and if the first one only have raw mats then there is a very low chance of the other mails having something useful. This happens because the content of your hireling mail is created when the mail is created, not when you open it, and the time interval between multiple mails generated is very low.

I did notice that over time certain percentage values don't happen as often as they should. For example 5 to 10% happens more often than they should, 15% happens less often, while chances of 20+% always are spot on.

twev · September 2015

ThoraxtheDark wrote: »

Go play defiance , then talk to me about RNG. recipes and other things of that nature Should be harder to get in the first place, end game content.

I skipped this passed weeks DEFI-holiday-fest.
Playing here wasn't that much more exciting, since the last patch borked stuff.

The Elder Scrolls Online

Who is doing the testing of the RNG ???

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