Crafting Upgrades Failing

AshesRising · June 2014

This may just be my problem, but I wanted to see if anyone else has the same issue. Since I've taken the passive skill "Temper Expertise" I've noticed I seem to be failing alot when I try to upgrade items. I put in enough materials (ie honing stones, dwarven oil, etc) to have a 90% chance to convert. To me, this seems to suggest that 1 time out of 10 I should fail. From what I've seen, I'm failing about 5 times out 6/7, especially with blues.

I have burned through my supply of honing stones fairly quickly, and it has gone from the disappointment of a failed attempt to incredulity that I failed 3 out of four times, to the point that now I'm actually hesitant to do any improvements unless I put in one more honing stone for that last 10%. I don't mind taking a small risk and failing every now and then, but this seems a bit ridiculous.

I'm wondering if this is a bug, or if I should just stay away from games of chance. Anyone else with this issue?

twev · June 2014

While I understand wanting to economize on an individual level, when I upgrade I just bite the bullet (so to speak OOC) and just go 100%.

One tends to waste more on failed attempts than one saves with using less than 100%, when one has issues of this type.

Just my opinion, and I aint the smartest guy in the thread.

wafffllesss · June 2014

If you have a chance in a million to win the lottery, this does not mean that if you buy 1 million tickets you're certainly going to win.

You are unlucky and fail a lot, some are lucky and upgrade a lot of items using only 1 temper.

Me, well.. I tend to go 100% or nothing :P.

zgrssd · June 2014

In SWTOR I once tried to get the shematic for a blue item.
The chance was 10% per try. It took me 34 tries (I had a stash of materials I could count off).
But that was the exception rather then the rule. Then chance to not get it within 33 tries was only 3% so I really beat the odds there (in the wrong way).

And I agree: Go for 100%, unless you can easily replace the item (all mats for trait and the previous quality levels).

AlexDougherty · June 2014

AshesRising wrote: »

This may just be my problem, but I wanted to see if anyone else has the same issue. Since I've taken the passive skill "Temper Expertise" I've noticed I seem to be failing alot when I try to upgrade items. I put in enough materials (ie honing stones, dwarven oil, etc) to have a 90% chance to convert. To me, this seems to suggest that 1 time out of 10 I should fail. From what I've seen, I'm failing about 5 times out 6/7, especially with blues.

I have burned through my supply of honing stones fairly quickly, and it has gone from the disappointment of a failed attempt to incredulity that I failed 3 out of four times, to the point that now I'm actually hesitant to do any improvements unless I put in one more honing stone for that last 10%. I don't mind taking a small risk and failing every now and then, but this seems a bit ridiculous.

I'm wondering if this is a bug, or if I should just stay away from games of chance. Anyone else with this issue?

The odds aren't correct, I think it might be modified by what your skill level in the craft is, ie you need it to be level 50 for it to be what it says in the tooltip. with the exception of 100% chance.

But that's just my opinion.

Vannor · June 2014

Never had a fail on 100% chance, never do anything other than 100%.

AlexDougherty · June 2014

Vannor wrote: »

Never had a fail on 100% chance, never do anything other than 100%.

It used to fail occassionaly, but they fixed it so that a 100% chance works all the time.

NerfEverything · June 2014

I've failed 90% 3 times in a row. Then I decided that something was broken and I only do 100% now.

MasterSpatula · June 2014

Nothing makes me suspect the RNG in this game of being a little defective quite like upgrades. Pretty much everyone I've discussed this with in-game reports that their rate of failure is waaaaaay over 50% whenever their chance of failure is 10%.

SirAndy · June 2014

AshesRising wrote: »

To me, this seems to suggest that 1 time out of 10 I should fail. From what I've seen, I'm failing about 5 times out 6/7

Your math is flawed. A 90% chance per try over 10 tries is not the same as a 90% chance for 10 tries.
;-)

Salsadoom · June 2014

wafffllesss wrote: »

If you have a chance in a million to win the lottery, this does not mean that if you buy 1 million tickets you're certainly going to win.

You are unlucky and fail a lot, some are lucky and upgrade a lot of items using only 1 temper.

Me, well.. I tend to go 100% or nothing :P.

Actually it does..1 in a million suggests there are 1 million combinations..so if you bought 1 million combinations you will win.

Just a thought.

SirAndy · June 2014

Salsadoom wrote: »

Actually it does..1 in a million suggests there are 1 million combinations..so if you bought 1 million combinations you will win.
Just a thought.

A thought yes, albeit a incorrect one ...

Hamfast · June 2014

MasterSpatula wrote: »

Nothing makes me suspect the RNG in this game of being a little defective quite like upgrades. Pretty much everyone I've discussed this with in-game reports that their rate of failure is waaaaaay over 50% whenever their chance of failure is 10%.

I think the RNG God is just fickle... I have Failed EVERY attempt at 60%, but made one at 30%, now, I just wait until I can do the 100% thing... which I think is why the RNG God is getting back at me in other ways...

Mescalamba · June 2014

Its way to keep players subscribed.

Artificial way of making things take longer. In this case, you need to have 100% chance, or simply fail. Thus you need more tempers (and other improving mats). Which means you must play longer in order to get them.

Whole game is rigged in anti-player bias. Its like casino. They always win.

Issue of this game is, that it isnt casino and unlike gambling, it becomes only annoying and you leave..

Jagath · June 2014

I also never upgrade without 100% success. I have in the past and the fail at 80 and 90% is really high. I don't think the percentages are very accurate.

cabbageub17_ESO · June 2014

Actually if 3 stones gets you a 90% chance of success and 4 gets you a 100% chance it pays to go 3. 10% increase in success rate isn't worth 33% more in cost. Assuming the mechanism is working correctly of course.

I only suspected this was broken in Beta where I lost 90% like 4 or 5 times in a row. Seems normal now.

Madval · June 2014

I'll failed 2 times in a row at 90% so now I go 100% each time.

vyal · June 2014

The chance percentages are inaccurate, and by design.

The entire point of the system is to create demand for legendary boosters, (1,3,4,8!) while the past three months have eroded the source of said boosters with every patch, while at the same time permitting all the dupers of said legendary boosters to keep their thousands of stacks.

Good times!

Btw, you can expect purple boosters to receive the same treatment in the future, as time goes on, in an effort to create artificial longevity for subscribers. Just like every other MMO that has gone down this horrible path of fail.

ThisOnePosts · June 2014

I always go 100% as well unless it's something I have so many of that I just feel like rolling the dice for a change of pace.

Cudda · July 2014

I did this earlier today. i am low level how ever. But I just wanted my own crafted weapon to be Green. So i did improvement. Only would have taken 5 stones to get 100%, but i was like. Wait a second. I am low level, and 80% is probably good enough. So i stepped back and only put 4 stones. Pure failure.

Now after reading all these posts. I will never do that again. What would have only costed 5 stones would have costed me 9 (because I def would not have taken that 80% chance again) But i decided to not upgrade after all. Because it just wasnt worth 9 stones....

Shiroro · July 2014

I kind of want to do a stream of 100 crafts at 80-90% to see if probability holds....

Cudda · July 2014

Shiroro wrote: »

I kind of want to do a stream of 100 crafts at 80-90% to see if probability holds....

Only problem is, as stated earlier, just because you craft 100 times, does not mean you will get 80-90 upgrades.

Each craft is its own individual 80-90%. So lets say you succeed in upgrading 60 times out of your 100, does that mean its only a 60% chance? Or what would the argument be to say whether or not its working correctly?

Soloeus · July 2014

Does it feel like this only happens when you have Upgraded Skills that result in the use of an odd number of Tanins/Resins?

I am asking because I have noticed I only fail when I spend an "odd" number of these mats.

Mescalamba · July 2014

vyal wrote: »

The chance percentages are inaccurate, and by design.

The entire point of the system is to create demand for legendary boosters, (1,3,4,8!) while the past three months have eroded the source of said boosters with every patch, while at the same time permitting all the dupers of said legendary boosters to keep their thousands of stacks.

Good times!

Btw, you can expect purple boosters to receive the same treatment in the future, as time goes on, in an effort to create artificial longevity for subscribers. Just like every other MMO that has gone down this horrible path of fail.

I guess it will take time, till most players will see it as we do.

AlexDougherty · July 2014

Cudda wrote: »

Shiroro wrote: »

I kind of want to do a stream of 100 crafts at 80-90% to see if probability holds....

Only problem is, as stated earlier, just because you craft 100 times, does not mean you will get 80-90 upgrades.

Each craft is its own individual 80-90%. So lets say you succeed in upgrading 60 times out of your 100, does that mean its only a 60% chance? Or what would the argument be to say whether or not its working correctly?

No, but the larger the sample the closer the success rate should get to the probability rate.

That's the whole point of statistics, the larger the group the fewer anomalies throwing it off.

Now if people upgrade say a thousand times and the success rate is only 50%, then chances are the game's mechanism is broken and not giving you the chances it says it is.

Of course, Nobody is going to upgrade items that many times, and the devs aren't going to install a tracker to find out whether the chance for success rate is actually true.

Tobiz · July 2014

NerfEverything wrote: »

I've failed 90% 3 times in a row. Then I decided that something was broken and I only do 100% now.

Same