Crafting failure percentages seem to be bogus

hwesterbergb14_ESO

So, it seems like their RNG for determining crafting upgrade success might be broken. Between 3 of us in my guild, we have failed *every* single time we've tried to upgrade from green to blue with a 90% chance of success. This is with about 20 trials each. Yes, it's still a somewhat small sample, but with a true 90% chance, our 'luck' should not be that bad, so something seems amiss.

Anyone else noticing this trend?

Opioid

I only ever use enough upgrade materials to get to 100% chance of upgrade. If I'm investing that much in crafting something that I care about not being destroyed, I'm not taking any chances at the game eating it.

Investing 3/3 points in the Temper/Tannin/Resin Expertise skills greatly reduces the materials needed to hit 100% chance and makes it worth it to upgrade to at least Green/Blue.

aeroch

I've failed to upgrade with a supposed 100% chance a few times. Not sure if that's by design or not, but it kinda sucks losing a rare-ish set piece plus the tempers

Opioid

@Aeroch I think that's some kind of bug in the upgrade interface. I've added enough materials to get to 100%, then told it to upgrade but when the confirmation window popped up, it was still at the percentage for a single upgrade material. Just pay attention to that confirmation when it pops up, if it doesn't say 100% again, exit out and start the upgrade over again and it works.

At least it has for me.

aeroch

I'll have to double check that next time. I noticed that happening a week ago or so ago but I haven't seen it recently

AreoHotah

I always do 90%, failing once every 15-20 tries

deheartb14_ESO

crai7er_boy_4lif3b16_ESO wrote: »

I always do 90%, failing once every 15-20 tries

ya, that was the whole point of this thread, OP tested it at 90% and for him it failed 100% of the time.

I myself tested it out with it just at 20% and out of 43 light belts, only one succeeded to upgrade. So ya it seems like for some people, the failure rate is not what it says on the tooltip.

But Ive never had any problem with the 100% upgrade chance so I just do that for special armor.

Killswitche

Well I just got my first failure last night trying to upgrade to blue. I usually only upgrade at 60%-75%and always successful. I usually craft leather items and my skill level is 33. I do also have the 3/3 upgrade expertise

Cheatingdeath23

I stopped doing it for less than 100% because I failed a majority of the time at 80% and 90%.

Not 100% of the time, but about half, and it just isn't worth losing the tempers, much less the item.

hwesterbergb14_ESO

Yeah, i only do 100% now, but it does seem something wonky is going on. Kind of interesting.

dennissomb16_ESO

after about 30 tries at 80 and 90% over time and a failure rate of about 75% I simply don't bother anymore. 100% now or nothing. Seems anything less then 100% is far to high a chance of failure

Alpha_Protocol

*Playing devil's advocate*

With a 80% chance to do anything, it's entirely possible to fail 20 times in succession and succeed the last 80. Not very likely, but possible.

seanolan

I have failed at 100%, even double checking the pop-up screen after the first time it happened. I wish the devs would fix this. Can't wait for it to happen to a legendary armor that someone had to go fight the great and grand high poobah of talliwit with a 2% drop rate....then we'll hear screaming over it.

SgtOpt

Im not a very high skill level in woodworking, but I finally tried to upgrade a green to a blue at 90%. Was my first attempt to do so and it failed!

syros

I failed at 100%...

Bolo_Bob

i have made about 10 items with 80% and about 10 items with 90% and havent lost any of them.
granted for me its probably just luck and next one will probably fail or next 20 will fail.

but ya if you guys are getting 100% fails something is terribly wrong. i havent experienced that myself, but holy hell that is jacked up.

hwesterbergb14_ESO

The devs definitely need to look into it if people are failing at 100%. And if 100% is wrong, then it stands to reason that the other percentages could be wrong as well.

Celless

This may have already been discussed in the thread.

For those failing at 100%, it may be a result of hitting the plus sign too fast, then hitting improve. If you do, the percent at the bottom of the screen will say 100%, but when you go to craft the item, the confirmation prompt will note you're using only one temper with the success rate of just the one temper.

seanolan

Again, as I said in my post, I have failed at 100%, even double checking the confirmation prompt.

Cheatingdeath23

I failed last night at 90% again. I swore I wouldn't do less than 100% but I was making swords for my wife's dual wield character and didn't have enough honing stones.

Pissed me off, once again. I know statistically it is possible for this to be normal, but I'm a little jealous of the lucky SOB who gets the other end of the bell curve (never fails on them).

ttraveler

Has this been fixed?

SienneYviete

The issue with the temper failing at 100% is a bug which i have reported, what happens is you click the required amount of tempers to hit %100 and all of a sudden the crafting window insta reloads (only visible tell tale is your weapons will flash) and goes back to 1 temper this can happen even after you have clicked confirm.

How i fixed this is don't have a weapon equipped if you are improving, once your weapon/s are placed back into your inventory it won't happen again. hope this helps people suffering from this bug.

AlexDougherty

hwesterbergb14_ESO wrote: »

So, it seems like their RNG for determining crafting upgrade success might be broken. Between 3 of us in my guild, we have failed *every* single time we've tried to upgrade from green to blue with a 90% chance of success. This is with about 20 trials each. Yes, it's still a somewhat small sample, but with a true 90% chance, our 'luck' should not be that bad, so something seems amiss.

Anyone else noticing this trend?

Yes, but attributed it to our crafting level having an effect.
If our crafting level has a bonus/negative for each material, this might explain our success & failure rates. But they should show our actual success/failure rate in that case, not some preloaded stats.

BirdUp

I only ever improve items when I have a 100% chance of success. (And... I stop and read the warning dialog. twice. ensuring that it says 100% chance. twice. I have never failed an improvement since using this method.)

I suspect you're bs'ing. But really, idk.

A sample size of 20, with all 20 failing on a 90% success chance... there's exactly a 0.000000000000000001% chance of that happening on any one go of 20. (like simultaneously winning a few mega-ball lotteries by buying one ticket for each).

Edit: if you're checking the math, please note the % sign.

NoMoreChillies

I failed with 100% when upgrading VR12 Cowl of the Warlock.
Bug or not, this needs to be fixed.
I put a ticket in, but no response. Not happy

BirdUp

NoMoreChillies wrote: »

I failed with 100% when upgrading VR12 Cowl of the Warlock.

I'm not calling you a liar, but I don't believe it. And I can tell you for sure that customer support doesn't believe it either.

What I do believe is you clicked the "+" sign enough times that "CHANCE 100%", a message from the client, was displayed. But (and here's the bug) when you mouse-clicked "(R) Improve", the message from the server did NOT say "You have a 100% chance to improve ...."

What happened was your number of Dreugh Wax being used mysteriously dropped from 8 to 1. And your actual chance of success fell all the way from 100% to 12.5%. And the server told you "You have a 12.5% chance to improve ...." And YOU blew right past it by pressing "E" key.

End result: you lost your purple VR12 Cowl of the Warlock and one Dreugh Wax.

You have to slow down and read the message from the server every time. Don't use the keyboard shortcut "E"; manually click the "(E) Accept" button yourself.

When I improve someone else's gear to yellow, with their mats, I actually do this obsessive routine of mouse-clicking "(R) Improve", then circling the "You have a 100% chance to improve ...." text with my mouse cursor, then mouse-clicking "(E) Accept".

I have improved many items for many clients, and I have never once failed an improvement since doing this (admittedly OCD) routine.

dylanjaygrobbelaarb16_ESO

hwesterbergb14_ESO wrote: »

So, it seems like their RNG for determining crafting upgrade success might be broken. Between 3 of us in my guild, we have failed *every* single time we've tried to upgrade from green to blue with a 90% chance of success. This is with about 20 trials each. Yes, it's still a somewhat small sample, but with a true 90% chance, our 'luck' should not be that bad, so something seems amiss.

Anyone else noticing this trend?

that is a tiny sample and your results are meaningless

Tarukmockto

hwesterbergb14_ESO wrote: »

So, it seems like their RNG for determining crafting upgrade success might be broken. Between 3 of us in my guild, we have failed *every* single time we've tried to upgrade from green to blue with a 90% chance of success. This is with about 20 trials each. Yes, it's still a somewhat small sample, but with a true 90% chance, our 'luck' should not be that bad, so something seems amiss.

Anyone else noticing this trend?

The thing to remember about the study of odds and statistics is that a 10% chance of failure is the same each and every time. The law of averages (Luck!) will indicate that each time you roll a number, it is less likely that it will be the same number over and over. However the odds that it will be, are the same each and every roll.

To put it another way, lets say you play the lottery with a million to one chance to win. And you win. Yay! Now when you play the lottery again tomorrow, your odds of winning are no better or worse. They are again a million to one. The law of averages however says that you probably won't hit it again, but the odds remain the same.

Cody

the thing where you put in enough rosins, or tempers, WHATEVER it is you are using, to get it to 100%, then when you are about to confirm it, and it drops to 20%, happened to me one time. thankfully, I noticed it right before I clicked "confirm", and fixed it, I even had my weapon unequipped, so even if you un-equip your item, it may still happen. that's why that happens to yall, when you "fail at 100%" just keep an eye on that bar, and make sure it says 100% before you hit "confirm" and you should be fine