Then stop desiring those other peices?
furiouslog wrote: »Then stop desiring those other peices?
Interesting. I thought it was a math problem, but it's actually an emotional issue. Well played!
In all seriousness though, if each weapon type is equally weighted (which is not necessarily a good assumption as I have always thought that it was weighted towards jewelry myself), you would have an 84% chance of getting the item you actually want in 25 crates, if you wanted a single item. Given that 5 appeared to be acceptable, your results are pretty unlikely, but definitely possible even if everything is equally weighted, given the size of the player population.
All of this goes back to the fundamental unfairness of the RNG problem. ZOS has mitigated a lot of this with drop curation and the sticker book, but certain sets don't drop, so there is no curation. I think that ought to change.
Necrotech_Master wrote: »furiouslog wrote: »Then stop desiring those other peices?
Interesting. I thought it was a math problem, but it's actually an emotional issue. Well played!
In all seriousness though, if each weapon type is equally weighted (which is not necessarily a good assumption as I have always thought that it was weighted towards jewelry myself), you would have an 84% chance of getting the item you actually want in 25 crates, if you wanted a single item. Given that 5 appeared to be acceptable, your results are pretty unlikely, but definitely possible even if everything is equally weighted, given the size of the player population.
All of this goes back to the fundamental unfairness of the RNG problem. ZOS has mitigated a lot of this with drop curation and the sticker book, but certain sets don't drop, so there is no curation. I think that ought to change.
pvp (cyro, IC, BG) all have the least curated gear in the entire game, everything else will drop doing it enough (dungeon/trial/arena), or from alternate sources (zones that have parts that lack curation can show up in the archive, where everything is curated)
cyro has very little curation (gloves/shoulders from delve bosses, jewelry from dolmens) but outside of that nothing is curated
IC has virtually no curation outside of the monster helms, trove scamps are the only source of drops for the gear and they arent even curated even considering how rare they are
BG gear is not curated at all since it comes through a mail
i would really like to see cyro or IC show up as "overland gear" in the archive at some point
Dagoth_Rac wrote: »Necrotech_Master wrote: »furiouslog wrote: »Then stop desiring those other peices?
Interesting. I thought it was a math problem, but it's actually an emotional issue. Well played!
In all seriousness though, if each weapon type is equally weighted (which is not necessarily a good assumption as I have always thought that it was weighted towards jewelry myself), you would have an 84% chance of getting the item you actually want in 25 crates, if you wanted a single item. Given that 5 appeared to be acceptable, your results are pretty unlikely, but definitely possible even if everything is equally weighted, given the size of the player population.
All of this goes back to the fundamental unfairness of the RNG problem. ZOS has mitigated a lot of this with drop curation and the sticker book, but certain sets don't drop, so there is no curation. I think that ought to change.
pvp (cyro, IC, BG) all have the least curated gear in the entire game, everything else will drop doing it enough (dungeon/trial/arena), or from alternate sources (zones that have parts that lack curation can show up in the archive, where everything is curated)
cyro has very little curation (gloves/shoulders from delve bosses, jewelry from dolmens) but outside of that nothing is curated
IC has virtually no curation outside of the monster helms, trove scamps are the only source of drops for the gear and they arent even curated even considering how rare they are
BG gear is not curated at all since it comes through a mail
i would really like to see cyro or IC show up as "overland gear" in the archive at some point
PvP gear has no curation because it is not bound. Selling it to non-PVP players is supposed to be a major source of gold for PvP players. Curation would likely hurt the market value, and since PvP does not reward much gold, I think ZOS want guild trader sales of Deadly and Vengeance Leech and so on to remain lucrative.
Dagoth_Rac wrote: »Necrotech_Master wrote: »furiouslog wrote: »Then stop desiring those other peices?
Interesting. I thought it was a math problem, but it's actually an emotional issue. Well played!
In all seriousness though, if each weapon type is equally weighted (which is not necessarily a good assumption as I have always thought that it was weighted towards jewelry myself), you would have an 84% chance of getting the item you actually want in 25 crates, if you wanted a single item. Given that 5 appeared to be acceptable, your results are pretty unlikely, but definitely possible even if everything is equally weighted, given the size of the player population.
All of this goes back to the fundamental unfairness of the RNG problem. ZOS has mitigated a lot of this with drop curation and the sticker book, but certain sets don't drop, so there is no curation. I think that ought to change.
pvp (cyro, IC, BG) all have the least curated gear in the entire game, everything else will drop doing it enough (dungeon/trial/arena), or from alternate sources (zones that have parts that lack curation can show up in the archive, where everything is curated)
cyro has very little curation (gloves/shoulders from delve bosses, jewelry from dolmens) but outside of that nothing is curated
IC has virtually no curation outside of the monster helms, trove scamps are the only source of drops for the gear and they arent even curated even considering how rare they are
BG gear is not curated at all since it comes through a mail
i would really like to see cyro or IC show up as "overland gear" in the archive at some point
PvP gear has no curation because it is not bound. Selling it to non-PVP players is supposed to be a major source of gold for PvP players. Curation would likely hurt the market value, and since PvP does not reward much gold, I think ZOS want guild trader sales of Deadly and Vengeance Leech and so on to remain lucrative.
Opened 25 on PTS:
1xAxe
1xMace
2xSword
2xGreatsword
6xBow
1xLightning staff
6xResto
3xShield
1xNeck
2xRing
I am almost sure (no proof, just personal observation from collecting everything in Cyro with random coffers) that it first rolls type, and only then exact piece of that type:
4x1h
2x2h
6xbow
1xDestro
6xResto
3xShield
3xJewlery
If you look at it like this, bows, shields and restos should be far more common, than subtype like dagger or axe, but not more common that all 1h combined. Just speculation, I have no proof or real evidence.
Think you are onto something, I never miss bows, shields or jewelry for dungeons if weapons was half done.furiouslog wrote: »Opened 25 on PTS:
1xAxe
1xMace
2xSword
2xGreatsword
6xBow
1xLightning staff
6xResto
3xShield
1xNeck
2xRing
I am almost sure (no proof, just personal observation from collecting everything in Cyro with random coffers) that it first rolls type, and only then exact piece of that type:
4x1h
2x2h
6xbow
1xDestro
6xResto
3xShield
3xJewlery
If you look at it like this, bows, shields and restos should be far more common, than subtype like dagger or axe, but not more common that all 1h combined. Just speculation, I have no proof or real evidence.
That looks like to me like what they did with the arena weapon drops, so a category (or more accurately, an arena set) of weapons is equally weighted, not the weapon itself. So, it'd probably be like this (apart from minor adjustments, which they have reported in the past):
Categories: Bow, Jewelry, One Hander, Two Hander, Destro Staves, Resto Staff, each equally (or near equally) weighted.
So it would look closer (but not exactly due to other unknowns) like this:
...which would match all of these results more closely.
Think you are onto something, I never miss bows, shields or jewelry for dungeons if weapons was half done.
But its some weird stuff going on, heard people opening 10 undaunted coffers only getting 1 set because other was meta.
And remember farming for SPC healing staff, never got any SPC jewelry outside the blue from quest.
But so many SPC bows 😺
RicAlmighty wrote: »
These containers are heavily weighted towards giving less desirable items.
furiouslog wrote: »I neglected to add EF321's sample to the total, I also messed up and made a formula mistake (divided by 6 instead of 7 categories and also pointed to the wrong column). Sorry about that, I'm kind of high ATM. Anyway, when we add the new data and fix the errors, we get this:
So we can't reject the null hypothesis, which means the weighting might be correct, or at least something close to it.
50 is hardly a sample size to make conclusions.
Here's 344:
Suddenly, there's more 2H or Jewelry than either of Bow/Resto/Shield. But overall, everything is closer to expected percentages.
furiouslog wrote: »Dagoth_Rac wrote: »Necrotech_Master wrote: »furiouslog wrote: »Then stop desiring those other peices?
Interesting. I thought it was a math problem, but it's actually an emotional issue. Well played!
In all seriousness though, if each weapon type is equally weighted (which is not necessarily a good assumption as I have always thought that it was weighted towards jewelry myself), you would have an 84% chance of getting the item you actually want in 25 crates, if you wanted a single item. Given that 5 appeared to be acceptable, your results are pretty unlikely, but definitely possible even if everything is equally weighted, given the size of the player population.
All of this goes back to the fundamental unfairness of the RNG problem. ZOS has mitigated a lot of this with drop curation and the sticker book, but certain sets don't drop, so there is no curation. I think that ought to change.
pvp (cyro, IC, BG) all have the least curated gear in the entire game, everything else will drop doing it enough (dungeon/trial/arena), or from alternate sources (zones that have parts that lack curation can show up in the archive, where everything is curated)
cyro has very little curation (gloves/shoulders from delve bosses, jewelry from dolmens) but outside of that nothing is curated
IC has virtually no curation outside of the monster helms, trove scamps are the only source of drops for the gear and they arent even curated even considering how rare they are
BG gear is not curated at all since it comes through a mail
i would really like to see cyro or IC show up as "overland gear" in the archive at some point
PvP gear has no curation because it is not bound. Selling it to non-PVP players is supposed to be a major source of gold for PvP players. Curation would likely hurt the market value, and since PvP does not reward much gold, I think ZOS want guild trader sales of Deadly and Vengeance Leech and so on to remain lucrative.
Deadly bows cost 11K gold. Daggers cost 500K. Is that not an issue that curation would solve? Once the set got filled out, people would still sell the random extras. It'd still be a moneymaker.
Seraphayel wrote: »I find it so funny how overpriced things on PC are. Just today I found posts about the Deadly set and tried to get some of those items on PS EU. I got to Bruma, got some 20 containers and then the stuff - which is not even worth 1/10 of what it’s worth on PC. It’s really funny, Deadly 1h weapons sells for six figures on PC, on PS they’re 10-15k. Same with other sets.
furiouslog wrote: »I just could not play this game on console. I have no idea how you poor guys do it. More power to you all.
Seraphayel wrote: »furiouslog wrote: »I just could not play this game on console. I have no idea how you poor guys do it. More power to you all.
To be honest, it‘s not too bad even with trading. It‘s just way harder for all those monopolies, but as a single player it‘s pretty doable if you’re in a handful of big trading guilds. You don‘t know real prices of things, but everything is less streamlined, which makes it quite good when it comes to bargains.
furiouslog wrote: »Seraphayel wrote: »furiouslog wrote: »I just could not play this game on console. I have no idea how you poor guys do it. More power to you all.
To be honest, it‘s not too bad even with trading. It‘s just way harder for all those monopolies, but as a single player it‘s pretty doable if you’re in a handful of big trading guilds. You don‘t know real prices of things, but everything is less streamlined, which makes it quite good when it comes to bargains.
I imagine it's a lot more like a ton of antique stalls where people are selling stuff out of dead relatives homes than a re-distributed Walmart. I could see how that could be fun. My wife would like it. But I'm a big data guy, so it would eventually drive me insane. The not knowing. Yikes.
katanagirl1 wrote: »furiouslog wrote: »Seraphayel wrote: »furiouslog wrote: »I just could not play this game on console. I have no idea how you poor guys do it. More power to you all.
To be honest, it‘s not too bad even with trading. It‘s just way harder for all those monopolies, but as a single player it‘s pretty doable if you’re in a handful of big trading guilds. You don‘t know real prices of things, but everything is less streamlined, which makes it quite good when it comes to bargains.
I imagine it's a lot more like a ton of antique stalls where people are selling stuff out of dead relatives homes than a re-distributed Walmart. I could see how that could be fun. My wife would like it. But I'm a big data guy, so it would eventually drive me insane. The not knowing. Yikes.
That’s not very flattering.
If you want to know prices on console you just check the traders in the three main capital cities and see what they are listed for. Then price slightly below that if you want to sell. You only guess when it’s something rare and can’t find it listed.
Back to the topic of Bruma containers, I spent 1-2 mil AP to get Deadly Daggers last year for my arcanist (not sure how many containers that was). and still didn’t get one. Paid 70 k for the cheapest one I could find in traders.