Question for the Trading Community: Incoming Deflation?

RMW

Hi!

I have a question for the Trading Community in ESO.

ZOS announced that they will remove grains from the game and that from now on we will only be able to get platings. Old grains will be converted into 1:1 platings while old platings will be converted into 1:10 platings. And this will mean that there will be a bigger supply of platings.

Now I heard a couple of people say that this change will lead to the deflation of gold and that prices wil go down across the board.
They meant that prices for
1. other materials
2. motifs/style pages/furnishing plans
3. carry prices for carry runs
4. and (if it where to return at some point) prices for gold for crowns
will go down.

So my question to the Trading Community is if they think that there will be deflation coming and if they think that prices will be more affordable in the future or if only platings will be affected and the rest will stay the same.

Have a good day!

bmnoble

The number of plating's needed to upgrade jewelry will be made to match the other crafts, so for example you will need 8 gold plating's to gold out a ring or necklace instead of the current 4.

Say for example the price of each gold plating gets cut in half as a result of the change, you still need to buy twice as many to upgrade your item, creating the illusion that your better off than before while still resulting in you paying the same price tag.

My guess is only plating's will be affected, at least until the oversupply from changing the old grains and plating's runs out after that it depends on whether the drop rate of plating's is able to keep enough supply to maintain the lower prices, if the supply is too low people will just buy out the plating's and re list them at a high price.

Trier_Sero

If they are increasing drop rate of platings tenfold and increasing number of platings needed for upgrade twice that should lead to about 5 time decrease in cost. But at the same time upgrading jewelry becoming more affordable should also increase demand to some degree. So I think Chrome platings will cost 75k-100k on pc-eu after the update.
I don't see how that can affect prices of other things though, except for gold/purple jewelry of course.

Luke_Flamesword

Say for example the price of each gold plating gets cut in half as a result of the change,

Prices will be much, much lower... Every time you get gold grain in current update, in future it will be gold plating. I made 2-3 platings every week from daily writs (on 7 characters), now it will be 20-30 platings every week. Market will be quickly flooded with them.

Now let's look at other crafting branches - clothing is most expensive, than blacksmithing and at the end woodworking with lowest prices. What makes difference there? Amount of things to upgrade. Clothing is most expensive, because you need for body parts for dd's (every light and medium armor) so it's needed most. Than blacksmithing is using for weapons mostly and heavy armor. Woodworking is only for staves, bows and shields so usually you don't need many of this.

With jewelry we have only 3 items to upgrade, but used in every build possible. I think that it will put prices much lower than clothing but a bit higher (or similiar) than blacksmithing. Of course it will be huge revenue drop in daily writers like me and will be completely mess up trading guilds for weeks.

I don't know if it cause deflation, because it won't change amount of gold in whole system. It will change distribution of gold - most wealthy players will be less wealthy and others will be richer when they don't need to spent so much gold into jewelry mats. It will be lesser gold sink with traders taxes, so overall it will be even little more gold.

Everything will be depended on players behaviours - if "commoners" with more gold will spent more gold on other things than hoarding "wealthy" players, than we will have even inflation

Wolfkeks

Lowkey waiting for @Arttea to drop a video on this 👀

Heelie

I think most people have it backwards with this update, gold platings before where enormously scarce, you needed 40 grains to upgrade a single piece of jewelry. On top of that there were no hirelings to bring in resources. This meant that the prices were so high that it was not profitable to do any of the master writs. What we are left with is a demand only from a select, extremely rich player base, and more importantly, a demand not tied to the price at all. The group of players buying platings for gold jewelry mostly don't care about the price, the only factor driving the price down is just players undercutting each other to sell quicker. This means that the data we should look at to determine where prices are next patch is not the previous prices of gold platings, because it's too biased. Prices will have almost nothing to do with what they are now, once this update drops.

Instead we should look at some of the good data we have, other gold upgrade materials, and try and determine where gold platings will be next patch.

Gold jewelry is less than 20% stronger than epic in its trait. Plus it does increase armor or anything. For this reason the demand from players will be less than let's say Dreugh Wax.
Probably it will be cheap enough that some master writs make sense, which means that the demand here will be about the same as other materials.

You need 3 pieces of gold jewelry for a full set, which is again, less than the other materials

So overall the demand will be less than Dreugh Wax, but a lot more than Rosin.

Then there is the supply side.

No hirelings, this means that the supply is a lot less than the other materials, hirelings bring in a large portion of all materials in eso.

But gold jewelry drops a lot in veteran trials, and are guaranteed drops on vet HM in some of the newer content. This is a huge supply of grains already now,

Does this mean that supply will be higher or lower than the other materials? I don't know for sure but my best guess is that it will still be lower.

Overall conclusion, Probably the prices will be a bit higher than Dreugh Wax in a year's time due to a lower supply and despite a lower demand, but not by much, my best guess is in the 250k per upgrade territory (assuming clothing at 200k) on the EU server, which is 31k per plating. It’s mostly speculation at this point, but I think this is a much more realistic model for how prices will go than looking at how anything was before.

bmnoble

Luke_Flamesword wrote: »

Say for example the price of each gold plating gets cut in half as a result of the change,

Prices will be much, much lower... Every time you get gold grain in current update, in future it will be gold plating. I made 2-3 platings every week from daily writs (on 7 characters), now it will be 20-30 platings every week. Market will be quickly flooded with them.

As I said it will depend on the drop rate, have they stated it will stay remain the same drop rate as with the grains are now or are they going to change it to something more in line with the other crafts gold mat drop rates.

To me that will determine the price range in the long run, we will get the initial flood of plating's when they change over the existing ones, after that we have to wait and see if the drop rates have been changed or not, I am leaning toward the more pessimistic outlook that the drop rate will be lower than the current grain drop rate is now.

TaSheen

As far as I can tell, they haven't addressed the drop rate at all. So my assumption, based on years here now, is that the drop rate will be "adjusted downwards" in the backend, without any notice or discussion.

Amottica

bmnoble wrote: »

The number of plating's needed to upgrade jewelry will be made to match the other crafts, so for example you will need 8 gold plating's to gold out a ring or necklace instead of the current 4.

Say for example the price of each gold plating gets cut in half as a result of the change, you still need to buy twice as many to upgrade your item, creating the illusion that your better off than before while still resulting in you paying the same price tag.

My guess is only plating's will be affected, at least until the oversupply from changing the old grains and plating's runs out after that it depends on whether the drop rate of plating's is able to keep enough supply to maintain the lower prices, if the supply is too low people will just buy out the plating's and re list them at a high price.

I agree. There is no logical path for the price of a motif decreasing because something fairly unrelated has changed in value.

Even the carry prices for cleaning content would not change sinde grains have nothing to do with how many groups carry others and how many players are willing to pay for such a carry. Those doing the carries will still charge as much as they can and still get people to pay them.

So yea. Claims suggesting the sky will fall are baseless.

rpa

I have earned millions with platings and my opinion of this change is: Good riddance!

OnnuK

Deflation is coming. There is more gold and nothing to spend. All previous challenges in ESO (Upgrading to gold) becoming so accessible gameplay is becoming newbei. If you are crafter and doing all the daily writs where should you spend your gold? You already have materials & surveys, you already have gold. Even I am a small trader this makes me play less, nothing to obtain besides trials & pvp in ESO right now...

CrashTest

Deflation is already here and has been happening since crown gifting stopped.

wolfie1.0.

We won't see deflation of the overall market based solely on this. In reality inflation will likely increase on other areas of the market.

My reasoning is based after a bit of thought and previous trends in eso.

1) annual anniversary event and it's impact on motif market and its lack of impact on overall inflation of the economy.

2) gear meta changes and it's lack of impact on the inflation of the overall economy.

Basically this will be no different than if zos nerfed jewelry in Meta builds as a whole or did an event that gave out a ton of jewelry mats... which really this is a combination of both of those instances.

Meanwhile the cost of other improvement items are holding relatively steady.

Where platings end up is going to be interesting to see. I feel a lot of it is going to depend on longterm sourcing and how much pent up demand for it is around.

Some things to remember:

-summerset is still required to use the craft, but not to hold onto and collect the resource. That has an impact.

-jewelry makes up only three slots in any build.
- many players are and were using platings to store wealth
- In any non tank build dreugh wax will be the most consumed item for any maxed out build.
- Jewelry sourcing and supply generation isn't changing from what we can tell.
- The entire market is in a slow down due to a ton of gold in existence and nothing to spend it on with crown gifting being on pause. Basically there isnt a reason to sell stuff unless you want to maintain your ability to sell stuff for a lot of high end traders.

Based on this I anticipate that the cost of dreugh wax will, in time, out pace chromium platings in value, especially if the meta trend continues as it has. Since, in the short run it will be the most stable of the tempers on the market for likely the remainder of the year.

ForzaRammer

Deflation is when there is too little currency chasing too many consumer good.

There is barely if any decrease of currency in circulation and there is no mass increase of supply of many different consumer good.

Necrotech_Master

the only thing i see "deflating" will be the prices of jewelry mats across the board

the largest changes will be for green-purple mats, as those will be easily aquired through actions such as dolmen/dragon farming (imagine the 20+ players running alikr dolmens 24/7 deconning all their jewelry producing mats)

those deconned jewelry will no longer be having the chance to provide 1 grain, but instead of 1 plating

gold platings though, while they will 100% see a drop in what they are going for now, i think they will end up winding to be about the price of the current gold grains (on PC i expect them to still be about 40-70k gold each a month or so after the update)

Araneae6537

OnnuK wrote: »

Deflation is coming. There is more gold and nothing to spend. All previous challenges in ESO (Upgrading to gold) becoming so accessible gameplay is becoming newbei. If you are crafter and doing all the daily writs where should you spend your gold? You already have materials & surveys, you already have gold. Even I am a small trader this makes me play less, nothing to obtain besides trials & pvp in ESO right now...

That would cause inflation, as the value of the gold currency goes down.

ForzaRammer wrote: »

Deflation is when there is too little currency chasing too many consumer good.

There is barely if any decrease of currency in circulation and there is no mass increase of supply of many different consumer good.

Exactly!

Kirawolfe

A great deal of the sales we get at our trader come from jewelry mats. I think our weekly sales income will be smaller overall.

We've already seen a hit because of the crown store gifting change. A lot of folks in the guilds I'm a part of regularly amass a ton of gold through trading to then purchase things from the crown store. With that gone, there's less demand to make a ton of gold.

I think profits will dip, but so will the overall cost for traders, and everyone will need to adjust to a new normal.

That's just my forecast anyway

CrashTest

ForzaRammer wrote: »

Deflation is when there is too little currency chasing too many consumer good.

There is barely if any decrease of currency in circulation and there is no mass increase of supply of many different consumer good.

ESO isn't real life so an exact comparison can't be made to real life. When players simply stop buying what you're selling, prices drop. That's what has been happening since crown gifting stopped.

I trade a ton, so I can see with hard data that deflation is happening right now.

CrashTest

Necrotech_Master wrote: »

i think they will end up winding to be about the price of the current gold grains (on PC i expect them to still be about 40-70k gold each a month or so after the update)

It will be lower than the price of Tempers and probably settle around Kuta. There might be an initial spike but it won't last. Supply is going to increase by a staggering 1,000% while the cost to upgrade is going to decrease to a mere 20%. That's a massive 80% reduction in cost.

Most people wear mythic jewels, so they'll only need to upgrade two jewels.

Jewelry is going to be the easiest thing in your build to upgrade because there are more ways to upgrade or just straight up get gold jewels. You can get Chromium plating from refining, the crafting daily, and ToT. You can get gold jewelry from vet trials, the Golden Vendor, and leaderboards.

You can also just farm easy vet trials then decon jewels for Chromium platings. The stickerbook makes this even faster because all you have to do is not claim the jewelry to guarantee you'll get jewelry every run. It'll probably open up a new market just for that.

Vulkunne

RMW wrote: »

Hi!

I have a question for the Trading Community in ESO.

ZOS announced that they will remove grains from the game and that from now on we will only be able to get platings. Old grains will be converted into 1:1 platings while old platings will be converted into 1:10 platings. And this will mean that there will be a bigger supply of platings.

Now I heard a couple of people say that this change will lead to the deflation of gold and that prices wil go down across the board.
They meant that prices for
1. other materials
2. motifs/style pages/furnishing plans
3. carry prices for carry runs
4. and (if it where to return at some point) prices for gold for crowns
will go down.

So my question to the Trading Community is if they think that there will be deflation coming and if they think that prices will be more affordable in the future or if only platings will be affected and the rest will stay the same.

Have a good day!

Yeah the price for Platings has already started to plummet. Post conversion there will be a large supply of platings on the market and the price for those will probably be relatively cheap, as others have also speculated. Say around 40k, 50k.

However over time as that supply gets used up, inflation will at some point kick in. This could take months or even over a year possibly. What I will be watching for is to see if once inflation does kick in, does the price align with other gold mats or does it end up being a derivative based on the original cost of platings, whether we divide by 8 or 10. If it does and for some reason I suspect it will, then this is all for nothing because essentially you'll be paying the same.

Either way, I'm not too worried about it. I think the other poster has a great point about using Mythic Jewlery in place of golding something out. smart smart smart. Hint: I also do this.

Zodiarkslayer

There is only one way a massive deflation is ever going to happen: massive player exodus!

EF321

CrashTest wrote: »

You can also just farm easy vet trials then decon jewels for Chromium platings. The stickerbook makes this even faster because all you have to do is not claim the jewelry to guarantee you'll get jewelry every run. It'll probably open up a new market just for that.

If you decon jewlery, it gets added to your stickerbook. Unless you are planning to run trials with designated deconstructor person who will be responsible for deconstructing everyone's unclaimed jewelry, but that is too much work and coordination for how little value it's gonna give.


Many trials already guarantee gold jewelry drops alongside weapon on vet/hm anyway, Crag trials I think even give two gold pieces on hm, but I don't remember clearly.
vAS+2 should probably be best, short and with added tiny chance of polymorph.

CrashTest

EF321 wrote: »

CrashTest wrote: »

You can also just farm easy vet trials then decon jewels for Chromium platings. The stickerbook makes this even faster because all you have to do is not claim the jewelry to guarantee you'll get jewelry every run. It'll probably open up a new market just for that.

If you decon jewlery, it gets added to your stickerbook. Unless you are planning to run trials with designated deconstructor person who will be responsible for deconstructing everyone's unclaimed jewelry, but that is too much work and coordination for how little value it's gonna give.


Many trials already guarantee gold jewelry drops alongside weapon on vet/hm anyway, Crag trials I think even give two gold pieces on hm, but I don't remember clearly.
vAS+2 should probably be best, short and with added tiny chance of polymorph.

Yes, you farm with a friend or guild to keep your jewelry or theirs unclaimed. People already do that for highly sought after gear. That's how they sell specific weapon drops like PoN or Zen daggers.

You're right about vAS+2, but I didn't want to mention it because it's not something the average player can do. The most accessible and easiest vet trials are the beginner trials vHRC or vAA which pugs can do in 20-30 minutes.

If you can faceroll vAS+2 in a few minutes then that's best because you'll have enough platings for a full set and then some in just an hour.

Wolfkeks

@RMW a few perspecitves to add to this discussion for you

1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWY71sSHxXA&t=591s
2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gldbp5IkKjc
3. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEhDa_CA-XA

ZOS_Hadeostry

Greetings,

After further review we have decided to move this thread to a category we think is more appropriate for this topic, as it's asking the community for opinions.

Thank you for your understanding