Hi everyone,
Results first, then the discussion.
This month I played 140 games in Rubedite and finished 11th with 1758 points, as shown in the picture and the simple table of results.
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The next two graphs show the score and rank changes over the month. The variability of both are why we need a change in our ranking system. Some players who are better than me should have been ranked higher (and vice versa).
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The third graph shows my win and loss streaks.
Discussion
I felt the most interesting item was on items related to the starting pick coin flips. The probability of winning with the first pick (~80%) continues to be much higher than with the second pick (~45%). More interesting was the streaks of the coin flip. I started the month with 10 second picks in a row and then had another set with 11 second picks in a row. The probability of that occurring is extremely low and points to a programming issue which I discussed in a different post.
Next, let’s consider series over the months (multiple games against one player). This month I played fewer games, with a maximum of 6 games against one person.
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The data becomes more interesting with the score change per series. At least this month, the series I won were all positive gains, and the series I lost were negative. Part of the issue lies is in the score change themselves. Note that my single-game wins only gained 52.3 points per game, but my single-game losses cost me 73.4 per game. Overall, I won more single-game matches than I lost, yet lost points.
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The game should not be based on gains per win because a win-loss ratio can be manipulated by games played. Instead, we need to consider the larger matches. When I win 6/6, my score gains per game should be more than if I win 3/5 because the person who won 2/5 against me is likely more skilled than the person who won 0/6 against me. Further, any matches I tied (yellow) should be zero because the RNG suggests we are similarly skilled.