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1.1K Ancestor silk refined, zero Dreugh Wax

DigiAngel
DigiAngel
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All the right perks in all the right places (lvl....1300 I think). Is this normal?
Edited by ZOS_Icy on July 31, 2023 11:25AM
  • N3CR01
    N3CR01
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    Yup. Thats RNG for ya.
  • Kiyakotari
    Kiyakotari
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    No, with over 1000 you should see some (I usually get 5-10 wax from that size stack). RNG with a stack that size is going to determine how many you get, but you shouldn't be getting ZERO.
  • jtm1018
    jtm1018
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    Thats just awesome!!!

    I usually get 2 to 3 dreaugh wax to 1k ancestor silks.
  • ElderSmitter
    ElderSmitter
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    You can sell 200 Raw Ancestor Silk for Minimum 50k per 200 easily... Might be better to sell it and just buy Dreugh Wax for Less. RNG gets the best of us! NA PCU
    Edited by ElderSmitter on July 31, 2023 12:52AM
  • Quackery
    Quackery
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    That should be impossible. Not even the worst RNG would give you zip.
  • tmbrinks
    tmbrinks
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    Assuming no user error.

    That'll happen about 1 in 500 times. Very rare. But not impossible.

    ( 1 / (.944 ^ 110) )
    Edited by tmbrinks on July 31, 2023 1:19AM
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  • ixthUA
    ixthUA
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    It can be worse. Computer RNG likes to be stuck for some time on a certain outcome, like no gold mats for X sec (or minutes). To avoid this, need to spread refining over time, the more time between refining the better.
  • Nestor
    Nestor
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    The other day, got 4 Wax out of 300 Raws and 2 from 200 hides.

    3 Weeks ago, got 2 Wax for 1600 cloth and 0 for 600 Leathers.

    RNG is a fickle mistress.
    Enjoy the game, life is what you really want to be worried about.

    PakKat "Everything was going well, until I died"
    Gary Gravestink "I am glad you died, I needed the help"

  • RicAlmighty
    RicAlmighty
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    ixthUA wrote: »
    It can be worse. Computer RNG likes to be stuck for some time on a certain outcome, like no gold mats for X sec (or minutes). To avoid this, need to spread refining over time, the more time between refining the better.

    Unless the programmers are completely incompetent, this hasn't been the case for over 20 years. Random Number libraries are exceptionally good these days; there is no such thing as "getting stuck"
  • rpa
    rpa
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    Random numbers are easy to get wrong. ESO appears to have unbiased over long time but short time streaky RNG and real probabilities rarely match what is given on tooltip.
    That said, I'd check if the character doing the refining has appropriate skill points on related crafting passive and cp Meticulous Disassembly slotted. (Also mind the 30s cooldown on changing slotted champion perks.)
    Edited by rpa on July 31, 2023 4:56AM
  • Zodiarkslayer
    Zodiarkslayer
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    Normally you should have a 6% to 7% rate.
    0 drops from 100 draws is incredibly unlikely.
    If anyone here says: OH! But, PVP! I swear I'll ...

    Thank you for the valuable input and respectfully recommend to discuss that aspect of ESO on the PVP forum.
  • ruengdet2515
    ruengdet2515
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    Satan bless you. >:)
    Never have that problem.
  • mattaeus01b16_ESO
    mattaeus01b16_ESO
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    DigiAngel wrote: »
    All the right perks in all the right places (lvl....1300 I think). Is this normal?

    Its not RNG... is poop. Try refining in loots of 100. I just found this out tonight. Its COMPLEATLY BROKEN.
    .... same as fish. Use the station. 100 lots only.
  • endgamesmug
    endgamesmug
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    Why i dont farm mats and rely on surveys that way i waste far less time running in circles gathering mats for the possibility, rather than gambling the amounts i get automatically as it were.

  • Dr_Con
    Dr_Con
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    DigiAngel wrote: »
    All the right perks in all the right places (lvl....1300 I think). Is this normal?

    Its not RNG... is poop. Try refining in loots of 100. I just found this out tonight. Its COMPLEATLY BROKEN.
    .... same as fish. Use the station. 100 lots only.

    I could say that you should jump twice and spin your camera around counter clockwise 3 times before each refining attempt and it would be as valid as this comment.

    There's plenty of videos of people refining in massive quantities and the gold mat recovery rate is about the same for all raw mats.

    edit: from tmbrinks's spreadsheet-
    Make sure to be 3/3 in the extraction passives to extract the most tempers
    Drop rates at 3/3 are 15% for Green, 12.5% for Blue, 7.5% for Purple, and 5% for Gold materials (without Meticulous Disassembly)
    Meticulous Disassembly - This CP star active adds "1 level" to your extraction passive - at 3/3 + MD appears to increase the base drop rate by ~12.5% (Multiply by 1.125) of improvement materials
    w/ MD Drop rates at 3/3 + MD are ~16.9% for Green, ~14.1% for Blue, ~8.4% for Purple and ~5.6% for Gold materials
    Save your time and refine everything at once. No statistically significant evidence has ever been shared about "microrefining" "timing" or whatever other tin-foil "theory" there is out there. (If there truly is a bug, it's exploiting, and that can get you banned). If you have statistically significant evidence to the contrary, please share! Nobody does :)
    Edited by Dr_Con on July 31, 2023 6:34AM
  • BetterAtChess
    BetterAtChess
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    It might just be bad RNG. But.. how did you get the 1.1k mats? was it by running the same farming route over and over again?

    I find that if I run my farming route too much, I stop getting gold mats. Maybe some anti-botting mechanic?
  • Dragonlord573
    Dragonlord573
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    Pro tip: refine individually, not in bulk. You get different RNG rolls when you refine individually. With 1k of any resource I could walkout with 20 or more gold mats.
  • ZOS_Icy
    ZOS_Icy
    mod
    Greetings,

    This thread has been moved to the Players Helping Players section, as it is better suited there.

    Thank you for your understanding.
    Staff Post
  • DigiAngel
    DigiAngel
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    And confirming: user error :disappointed: Had the paragon points, but not the skill points used...go me! Thanks for the responses all!
  • ixthUA
    ixthUA
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    ixthUA wrote: »
    It can be worse. Computer RNG likes to be stuck for some time on a certain outcome, like no gold mats for X sec (or minutes). To avoid this, need to spread refining over time, the more time between refining the better.

    Unless the programmers are completely incompetent, this hasn't been the case for over 20 years. Random Number libraries are exceptionally good these days; there is no such thing as "getting stuck"

    I play mmos for 19 years by now, this has always been the case.
  • mattaeus01b16_ESO
    mattaeus01b16_ESO
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    Dr_Con wrote: »
    DigiAngel wrote: »
    All the right perks in all the right places (lvl....1300 I think). Is this normal?

    Its not RNG... is poop. Try refining in loots of 100. I just found this out tonight. Its COMPLEATLY BROKEN.
    .... same as fish. Use the station. 100 lots only.

    I could say that you should jump twice and spin your camera around counter clockwise 3 times before each refining attempt and it would be as valid as this comment.

    There's plenty of videos of people refining in massive quantities and the gold mat recovery rate is about the same for all raw mats.
    [/quote]

    From someone that farms, crafts and refines all the time in the 9 years Iv played.... Its messed up. I have never gotten as low as drops as I have in the last few weeks from deconning massive stacks. The fact is that when I was told about this issue I searched around on the web and found that the drop rates do infact increase when refining smaller stacks. If I refine 5000 Ore and only get 1 temper for every 800... Then there is something wrong.
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