I almost always win-- maybe 98% of the time-- although with the "smarter" (more aggressive) NPCs there are more matches where they get an early lead but then sort of slack off on gaining more ground and instead just start buying cards foolishly as if trying to give me a chance to catch up, such that I end up winning by a large margin or else by flipping all four patrons my way.
But every so often, both before and after the recent "smartification" of the NPCs, I run into a match where the NPC gets to go first, is able to buy a really strong card in their first move, then another in their second move, and from there on it just snowballs as they steamroll their way through the match and I never have a chance to catch up to them. Basically, it's like RNGesus strongly favors the NPC over me, but also the NPC doesn't slide into the "I'm going to go all complacent and relaxed now so the poor human can catch up to me" thing that most of them seem to do.
Last night I ran into the "Father Sithis" Argonian lady and she beat me twice in a row before I finally beat her. That was the first time on that server that I'd lost to an NPC after the recent tweaking. On the other server I lost one time a few nights ago, but easily won the second match. So it feels like I'm losing a little less often-- maybe an increase from winning 95% of the matches before, to winning 98% now, or something like that-- but there are still those matches where I just can't seem to get traction.
I've been thinking about keeping track of my matches by noting which four patrons were chosen and who got to go first, because it does seem like the times when I've lost tended to be when Pelin was involved and the NPC got to move first, but I'm not sure about that.
Anyone else? Is it just me, or do you occasionally lose as well?
I've fought mudcrabs more fearsome than me!